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Post by aaplsauce on Jul 7, 2021 22:23:32 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Jul 8, 2021 2:20:54 GMT -8
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Post by zebrum on Jul 8, 2021 6:47:22 GMT -8
Seems yesterday's US-listed Chinese stocks crash has today spooked the whole market. Hopefully the dust will settle over the weekend and next week will bring a new ATH!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 8, 2021 7:24:42 GMT -8
Nothing is ever a straight line for too long.
It's interesting the way the same news can be taken positively or negatively, and how "just the bad parts" can be mined out. Interest rate changes in ~2000/2001, and again around 2008, were the best example. It depended on if the focus was on that interest rates were raised because the economy was doing so well, or on that raised interest rates would likely calm the great economy some. It really was an insight into the current market psychology, and how much thought towards wall of worry items people were giving.
Today's unemployment numbers are similar. Weekly numbers went up! But isn't the main thing right now the continued unemployment? That number went down. Then again, did it go down as much as expected? That's the other question, as so much of the market movement in anticipatory, especially in the mid to short term.
It's good to see AAPL at these levels again. It's not quite the same, with a P/E more than 25% lower, roughly 32.5 vs 43.6. There's less excitement, and the stock is on much more solid ground. OTOH, that means that there is plenty of room for the pricing to grow if Apple manages to surprise on earnings, and we see a good lead-up to the 13. Couple that with continued lowering of worry items like unemployment, COVID locally and globally, the chip shortage, anti-trust worries, various things at their higher end like oil, housing, and formerly lumber, potential speed of interest rate hikes if the economy comes on too fast, and potential size of change in business and individual taxes. Wow, there are a lot of wall of worry type things that are decently major.
Thanks Apple, for continuing to have a long term plan which makes it easier to invest without worrying much about the day to day. As just another example of this, both in 2001 and 2008 Apple told it's employees that unlike other firms, it wasn't going to have mass layoffs, instead (mostly) having a hiring freeze. It continued to chug away on it's path, so that it was ready when the economy went positive again. Apple's size and planning with available cash made this possible.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Jul 8, 2021 7:31:14 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Jul 8, 2021 7:37:55 GMT -8
4aapl said: “8-24-20 I give a 40+% probability on 15+% annualized returns for the next 2 years. For Sept expirations, using today's ($125.75), that's roughly ($146) for Sept '21, ($169) for Sept '22” So far, we’re a bit ahead of schedule.
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Post by duckpins on Jul 8, 2021 11:10:04 GMT -8
Really the Chinese are taking it on the chin, no pun intended. The ETFs represent value at these levels and lower. DIDI has 500 million customers already? And WS is pissed the Chinese government wants to keep tabs on them? The lower it goes the better buy. Same with YINN and CWEB. These have been trading with Apple in a holding zone and now have broken in different directions. Only a matter of time though.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 8, 2021 14:48:47 GMT -8
4aapl said: “8-24-20 I give a 40+% probability on 15+% annualized returns for the next 2 years. For Sept expirations, using today's ($125.75), that's roughly ($146) for Sept '21, ($169) for Sept '22” So far, we’re a bit ahead of schedule. Yep, hitting that probability zone decently. I'm happy to see 15+% annualized returns. OTOH, I don't think we are going to hit the 40+% annualized returns it would take to hit $250 on Sept '22, for a 100% gain in 2 years from then. But if we do and my shares are called away at $250, I won't be feeling bad at all. Nice to see the pullback settle at less than 1%, barely more than the averages, while still having a volume over 100m.
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