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Post by aaplsauce on Aug 23, 2021 22:10:50 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Aug 24, 2021 4:57:53 GMT -8
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Aug 24, 2021 6:49:40 GMT -8
I read an article recently that referenced Wycroft distributions and Point and Figure graphs. Does anyone here have any experience with these? Evidently the theory as been around for a long time. Given that so much trading is driven by algorithms, I was intrigued by the possibility of finding the underlying logic of the algorithms. At the very least, these graphs seemed like a way to find support and resistance levels to use when selling options. Any help? Or am I better off with the chicken entrails?
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Aug 24, 2021 6:57:39 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 24, 2021 7:19:28 GMT -8
Continuing the process from yesterday, today's question is again from the thoughts of Capital Allocators and doing a pre-mortum. If AAPL wasn't to do as well as you expected over the next 5 (or 10) years, what would have been the cause. Silkstone has an early reply: it would be due to the overall economy suffering, due to what seems like the snowballing effects (catastrophic heat, storms, flooding and fire) of people not taking enough direct action against climate change. I think that's possible. While I tend to think of it as a slower change and thus in the 10+ year area (currently with 2 large fires within 100 miles of us, air quality this morning around 400, and schools canceled again. A drought year is the major cause, but climate change is likely making it worse), this is trying to get at what could surprise us, and changes/response could come in the quicker 5 year timeframe. Apple already gets most of it's energy from renewable sources, and I don't see it going big into selling end user solutions directly. OTOH, they have enough strength to partner with someone who does. I'm still surprised no one has gone big into the fractional ownership of the likes of solar panels, especially for all of those living in places that can't have them, living in places where it makes less sense, people that don't want them on their roof, and just as a major scale up. I'm sure part of it is the separation of transmission line costs, but whether it would be a mega site out in the desert (there are some huge ones built in the last 3 years out past Lancaster CA), a more local one at a small or school (doing double effort by also giving shade for buildings, outdoor tables, or parking), or even down to the neighborhood or neighbor (sharing between 2 and 100 houses), there's a nice scaling feature there while potentially providing benefits and lowering installation and ongoing costs. Back to AAPL, one of the biggest threats I can see is a market bubble burst. In that case AAPL may still do as well or better than the market, so it does depend on if comparing to a specific rate, or to a benchmark. But a bubble that inflates for the next 1.5-3 years and then pops could bring the longer term pricing to less than the ~10-15% annualized for the coming 5 years that I roughly guess at. What about Apple specific? What could cause AAPL to trail the market over the coming 5 (or more) years?
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Post by Lstream on Aug 24, 2021 9:08:41 GMT -8
Government overreach and regulation. We are already seeing politicians acting as stooges for competitors that don't like App Store rules and so on. It blows me away that you have US politicians sabre rattling and making shit up about Apple's abuse of a non-existent monopoly. Or how they want to break some of Apple's security measures. Or force a reduction in App Store commissions. Some of what they are talking about doing would weaken Apple against Android and therefore strengthen the likes of Samsung. Threatening American jobs for a knock-off artist. This threat ranges from innocuous to something as extreme as a forced breakup. Because big is bad . I have full faith in Apple management successfully navigating whatever comes at them from the market. But not vs bone-heads and parasites that pass for politicians nowadays.
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Post by aaplsauce on Aug 24, 2021 10:06:21 GMT -8
4aapl: What could cause AAPL to trail the market over the coming 5 (or more) years?
Increasing conflict with China. China invades Taiwan, US may/may not respond, but would cause increasing tension either way. China might ban all products...
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Aug 24, 2021 11:12:10 GMT -8
4aapl: What could cause AAPL to trail the market over the coming 5 (or more) years? Increasing conflict with China. China invades Taiwan, US may/may not respond, but would cause increasing tension either way. China might ban all products... We have to remember that China has several connections with Apple and its products: manufacturing (employment), commerce (Apple stores), taxation. China self-interests will play a role also.
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mark
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Post by mark on Aug 25, 2021 10:46:04 GMT -8
4aapl: What could cause AAPL to trail the market over the coming 5 (or more) years? Increasing conflict with China. China invades Taiwan, US may/may not respond, but would cause increasing tension either way. China might ban all products... We have to remember that China has several connections with Apple and its products: manufacturing (employment), commerce (Apple stores), taxation. China self-interests will play a role also. While this is indeed true, we should still keep in mind that if China is willing to "destroy" parts of their own tech industry, they certainly would have no qualms hurting parts of US tech industry if they deem it necessary.
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