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Post by aaplsauce on Sept 7, 2021 22:25:37 GMT -8
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Sept 8, 2021 5:38:35 GMT -8
Good feeling gone….
(I’m sure it’ll be back soon enough!)
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Sept 8, 2021 6:57:45 GMT -8
Looks like we’re having one of those ugly days…
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 8, 2021 9:17:59 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Sept 8, 2021 9:26:12 GMT -8
Well more interested in the iMac 27 inch with the new chip and hoping for an OLED screen. September is the worst month for stocks historically. So pause before we continue to continue?
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 8, 2021 9:49:07 GMT -8
But only giving it a 35% chance that the stock will be at or above $168 a year from now. That's just 8%, from today's (lower) $155 level. And the "bullish case" only has a 2.8% chance! I agree that $245 in a year is pretty unlikely, and probably has about that chance. But maybe the "bullish case" should have a 10-20% probability level, even if that means dropping it down to a less outlandish value in the $190-220 range. Katy seems to be one of the most level-headed ones out there on AAPL, but even so the probabilities and "bull case" seem more than a little off.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 8, 2021 13:15:32 GMT -8
But only giving it a 35% chance that the stock will be at or above $168 a year from now. That's just 8%, from today's (lower) $155 level. And the "bullish case" only has a 2.8% chance! I agree that $245 in a year is pretty unlikely, and probably has about that chance. But maybe the "bullish case" should have a 10-20% probability level, even if that means dropping it down to a less outlandish value in the $190-220 range. Katy seems to be one of the most level-headed ones out there on AAPL, but even so the probabilities and "bull case" seem more than a little off. I think you may have misread it. I see the chance of the stock hitting $245 as 58.78%, with the chance of it being over that at 2.8%
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 8, 2021 14:39:22 GMT -8
But only giving it a 35% chance that the stock will be at or above $168 a year from now. That's just 8%, from today's (lower) $155 level. And the "bullish case" only has a 2.8% chance! I agree that $245 in a year is pretty unlikely, and probably has about that chance. But maybe the "bullish case" should have a 10-20% probability level, even if that means dropping it down to a less outlandish value in the $190-220 range. Katy seems to be one of the most level-headed ones out there on AAPL, but even so the probabilities and "bull case" seem more than a little off. I think you may have misread it. I see the chance of the stock hitting $245 as 58.78%, with the chance of it being over that at 2.8% Nope, that 58.78% is the gain from the $154.30 they used as the current price. And then it says that the prob(ability) of the stock being > $245 is 2.8%
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 8, 2021 14:51:18 GMT -8
Nope, that 58.78% is the gain from the $154.30 they used as the current price. And then it says that the prob(ability) of the stock being > $245 is 2.8% Ok, I see it now. The likelihood to be over $168 is 35.4%. Seems pretty bearish.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 8, 2021 19:25:38 GMT -8
Nope, that 58.78% is the gain from the $154.30 they used as the current price. And then it says that the prob(ability) of the stock being > $245 is 2.8% Ok, I see it now. The likelihood to be over $168 is 35.4%. Seems pretty bearish. Maybe not quite bearish since it is still positive, unless comparing to a baseline of 8% or 10%. OTOH, while it's fun to read pieces from people that are over the top bullish, often part or most of the market, it's hard to get behind that too much after the nice boost we've seen in the last 1.5 years. Today was a couple articles about Cathie Wood. I hope it works out well, and there's probably still some good strength in the economy, but for the market as a whole my 12 month guess would be in 5-20% gain range, with at least a 50% probability of it being in that range. Luckily I'm not an analyst, but it looks like my guesstimate for AAPL from a year ago worked out.
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