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Post by aaplsauce on Sept 30, 2021 22:23:33 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Oct 1, 2021 4:32:25 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Oct 1, 2021 6:43:15 GMT -8
up or down? I have been struggling with the irrationality of Apple stock movement since I found this board. Being in the company of members who had so much more experience in the market gave me hope that I might eventually begin to see some order in the apparent random walk. Back in 2013, the effect of the hidden FUD campaign from Samsung (in my mind) drove Apple down from 700+ to under 400. It wasn't until Apple started buybacks and the suit was settled that the stock began to stabilize and begin its climb. There have been a series of destructive narratives; The company can not survive the death of Steve Jobs, the focus on market share rather than profitability, the "law of large numbers", Apple is too dependent on one product, all of this repeated ad Infinitum in the clickbait. Meanwhile, Apple just keeps on charging forward. IOS, macOS, the Apple Watch, services, all steadily increasing the value of the ecosystem. These narratives prevailed despite the effect of China Mobile's conversion to 4G, the steady increases in profitability, and the growth to 2 trillion+ in market cap. I believed in Apple enough to mortgage my house to double my holdings in 2013 and was rewarded for it. In the face of the irrational responses to the last three-quarters of earnings, I am at a loss to find an analyst with the courage to even venture a narrative, so let me suggest a few. The rise of "Robinhood investors" has introduced a whole new class of gullible "noise" investors who follow the Seeking Alpha clickbait, Epic is continuing its FUD campaign until the appeal process is over, (Oh and here's one I just thought of) 5G will allow the guts of the devices to be in the cloud so the phone will only be the cloud access device. No need for a lot of memory or compute power in your hand, thus the phone can be much simpler and in a different form; glasses, implants? maybe just the watch. and a separate display device when you need it. Apple will lose the advantage of its superior interface. My point is there are an infinite number of narratives that can be created to drag the stock down and a finite but sufficiently large number of people whose greed will cause them to believe them. I started writing this to complain about that kind of ignorance, but I have decided just to take advantage of it. Fredrick Shiller once wrote "Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain" Let us prey
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Post by hledgard on Oct 1, 2021 8:04:11 GMT -8
Cool post, bud777 !
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Post by macprof on Oct 1, 2021 8:33:40 GMT -8
I find that investor behavior responds readily to the same type of indoctrination used by politicians and religions - repeat something often enough and they'll believe it rather than looking for the real truth themselves. There's been plenty of validation (ie Cramer admissions, books, movies ..) of Wall St, hedge funds etc spewing out rumors and incorrect information to drive the market/stock in the direction they want, the more illogical the better. They then buy or sell to enhance the movement, back up the truck and then do it all again inn the reverse direction. I've always been amazed hearing friends and people on the street talking about why they would never buy AAPL because of some of these stupid talking points. I've always watched for when the "fake news" is the most unsubstantiated, and the responses (dips) most extreme, to increase my holdings. AAPL has historically been one of the most manipulated of all stocks. My approach of buying during strong sell offs, and not selling, have provided my children with very large trust funds (all AAPL), my ex's settlement and retirement money and nice houses for me and my kids (her too I suppose).
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Post by macprof on Oct 1, 2021 8:36:38 GMT -8
Fortunately this group (and the previous one) have been key in helping me know when the market is being irrational.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Oct 1, 2021 8:44:41 GMT -8
@bud I think all these FUD narratives are subsets of the bigger AAPL FUD narrative, which is that Apple has peaked. It’s a fad, it’s plateauing, and it’s best days are behind it. All of the other specific narratives, from the Law of Large Numbers, to no new product categories, to tough y-o-y compares, are all parts of that larger sense that the market has, that the Apple story must be over soon.
Look at the way the market treats MSFT instead. For some reason no one thinks MSFT is about to fade away, they’re a staple that’s part of the backbone of the modern world. But for 20+ years Apple has been seen as a fad that’s about to go out of style.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Oct 1, 2021 9:22:58 GMT -8
(Oh and here's one I just thought of) 5G will allow the guts of the devices to be in the cloud so the phone will only be the cloud access device. No need for a lot of memory or compute power in your hand, thus the phone can be much simpler and in a different form; glasses, implants? maybe just the watch. and a separate display device when you need it. Apple will lose the advantage of its superior interface. While this is a great idea in theory, it practice it can't work. There are a few reasons for this: 1. Even with the speediness of [ideal] 5G, it's still nowhere even near speedy enough to update displays fast enough for many applications. 2. It might work to a small extent for 10 devices in a cell, or even 100 devices in a cell, but it won't work for many more than that. That makes it entirely impractical, and literally impossible in any medium-to-high density area. 3. It would decimate power efficiency, with the 5G tranceiver on "all the time", doing "everything", batteries will last a lot less time. 4. Since we are humans, there will always be a human interface of some sort, and most people like better ones. and finally, 5. The "guts" of TONS of things are already in the cloud, and has been there for many years, if not decades.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Oct 1, 2021 9:23:02 GMT -8
(Oh and here's one I just thought of) 5G will allow the guts of the devices to be in the cloud so the phone will only be the cloud access device. No need for a lot of memory or compute power in your hand, thus the phone can be much simpler and in a different form; glasses, implants? maybe just the watch. and a separate display device when you need it. Apple will lose the advantage of its superior interface.My point is there are an infinite number of narratives that can be created to drag the stock down and a finite but sufficiently large number of people whose greed will cause them to believe them. I started writing this to complain about that kind of ignorance, but I have decided just to take advantage of it. Fredrick Shiller once wrote "Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain" Let us prey Thanks bub, I had never considered that going to a faster Internet connection and cloud storage could possibly change the whole landscape for devices. A whole list of sci/fi movies start coming to mind. . . . . I also think that this is what the market does. If ya got something that works for ya, even if you know that it’s a lie, ya stick with it. Or at least until it no longer works.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Oct 1, 2021 9:43:11 GMT -8
(Oh and here's one I just thought of) 5G will allow the guts of the devices to be in the cloud so the phone will only be the cloud access device. No need for a lot of memory or compute power in your hand, thus the phone can be much simpler and in a different form; glasses, implants? maybe just the watch. and a separate display device when you need it. Apple will lose the advantage of its superior interface. While this is a great idea in theory, it practice it can't work. There are a few reasons for this: 1. Even with the speediness of [ideal] 5G, it's still nowhere even near speedy enough to update displays fast enough for many applications. 2. It might work to a small extent for 10 devices in a cell, or even 100 devices in a cell, but it won't work for many more than that. That makes it entirely impractical, and literally impossible in any medium-to-high density area. 3. It would decimate power efficiency, with the 5G tranceiver on "all the time", doing "everything", batteries will last a lot less time. 4. Since we are humans, there will always be a human interface of some sort, and most people like better ones. and finally, 5. The "guts" of TONS of things are already in the cloud, and has been there for many years, if not decades. OK, a good idea, not a great idea
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Post by firestorm on Oct 1, 2021 20:16:50 GMT -8
News this morning about Foxconn buying the Lordstown, Ohio, auto assembly plant. It could be used to produce cars for a car company. Perhaps Apple? Lordstown was a GM assembly plant for decades; when my father worked as a GM engineer his coworkers referred to the workers of Lordstown as "hippies" back in the late 70s and early 80s, but really I think most of them were from the hollows of Kentucky and southwest Ohio and didn't have much of a work ethic. Anyway, here is a link: www.macrumors.com/2021/10/01/apple-supplier-foxconn-ohio-car-factory/
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Oct 2, 2021 2:09:21 GMT -8
News this morning about Foxconn buying the Lordstown, Ohio, auto assembly plant. It could be used to produce cars for a car company. Perhaps Apple? Lordstown was a GM assembly plant for decades; when my father worked as a GM engineer his coworkers referred to the workers of Lordstown as "hippies" back in the late 70s and early 80s, but really I think most of them were from the hollows of Kentucky and southwest Ohio and didn't have much of a work ethic. Anyway, here is a link: www.macrumors.com/2021/10/01/apple-supplier-foxconn-ohio-car-factory/This is a link found in Firestorms story. Apple Reportedly Aiming to Manufacture Apple Car Batteries in the United StatesIs it possible that Apple could be reluctant to be dependent upon a country that has trouble keeping the lights on? But again, these ate only rumors. In the comments section of the story there seems to be a strong desire for Apple to bring its manufacturing to the US.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Oct 2, 2021 2:17:05 GMT -8
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