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Post by aaplsauce on Oct 20, 2021 22:28:39 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Oct 21, 2021 2:58:34 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Oct 21, 2021 8:58:51 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Oct 21, 2021 9:41:08 GMT -8
How much of today's drop was money coming out of Apple to go into Tesla? I am getting more and more interested in trying to understand the stock movement as a function of money flows. I am beginning to think that we can never understand the movement of one stock based solely on the performance of the company. All the fundamentals seem to assume a reductionist premise that a stock's behavior is a function of the internals of the company. While we acknowledge the effect of external factors like interest rates and supply chains and consumer demand for the products, we simplify the problem by assuming that the stock lives in isolation.
In reality, the price of the stock must be affected by the available capital to buy it, and that in turn is affected by the availability of other opportunities. I would love to try to read a paper that attacked this interaction. It feels a little like Modern Portfolio theory in the way that multiple opportunities interact, but if feels like differential equations are needed for the dynamic aspects. I am just running on intuition here, but this approach might shed some light on how the emergence of Bitcoin opportunities and Robinhood investors affected the flow of money into and out of stocks and changed the underlying "truth" of technical analysis. I think Nobel prizes have been won for answering simpler questions. I am at least confident that there is a good Ph.D. dissertation waiting to be written about this
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Oct 21, 2021 9:45:19 GMT -8
So what happened at noon today?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Oct 21, 2021 11:16:57 GMT -8
Well said Bud.
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Post by ped on Oct 21, 2021 12:13:03 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 21, 2021 12:32:03 GMT -8
How much of today's drop was money coming out of Apple to go into Tesla? And it's back The volume and movement doesn't really match up with Tesla. I didn't see it on the S&P, Nasdaq, or Netflix either. There's probably a correlation out there somewhere. (Thank PED. Yep, GOOG, even if Bloomberg's story was a few minutes earlier than the drop (date stamp says 9:48am, but maybe that is PT which would make it 12 minutes before the drop). Probably just an algo going crazy on news that seemed scary, but really wasn't (limited to music streaming and subscriptions, and for Google the subscriptions already dropped to 15% after the first year, so the incremental is pretty small) finance.yahoo.com/news/google-slash-fee-takes-subscriptions-161058684.html GOOG took about a half percent hit, and AAPL took about a 1% hit. Both ended up just a bit.) Looks like that first minute or two was 2M shares, so roughly $300M. Volume is pretty low. Probably just a flash-crash type thing, where someone decided to sell a nice sized chunk, didn't split it up or put it through a dark pool or whatever, and blew through open orders to drop the stock by 1%. That's not huge, but noticeable. OTOH, the action since they shows many are interested in a slight discount, even with the unknowns before earnings. This isn't normally seen on AAPL, but I was careful with it when I had to clear out a microcap stock in an account I now manage. I was selling something like 10-25% of the normal daily volume, I think, but even if it was just 5% it was enough that it could have caused problems if putting it all as one market order. (FWIW, this was another day that AAPL was green across the stock app....for the 1D, 1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and ALL. A small gain on the daily, but green is good)
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Post by aaplsauce on Oct 21, 2021 12:56:05 GMT -8
I agree with Bud, stock price movement related to money flow would be interesting research to read. That said, it is so relaxing and rewarding to be a chronic long. I rarely suffer from price movement angst these days. Holding every share tight, and accumulating during those irresistible dips.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 21, 2021 14:42:33 GMT -8
Apple's advertising changes are not helping Snapchat, GOOG or FB...at all. Those three stocks are being treated, after hours, just like AAPL is after Apple posts a blowout earnings report. Snap Stock Plunges on Earnings. It’s Bad News for Facebook Too. By Eric J. Savitz Updated Oct. 21, 2021 6:05 pm ET / Original Oct. 21, 2021 5:20 pm ET The parent of Snapchat said changes made by Apple hurt its advertising revenue. Snap stock is down by double digits in late trading. Snap stock plunged in late trading Thursday after the social-networking firm posted disappointing revenue growth and guidance that fell shy of estimates. The parent of Snapchat said its advertising revenue was hurt more than expected by Apple‘s change in the rules surrounding advertising on mobile apps. The miss weighed heavy on shares of other major social-media companies. Continue reading this article with a Barron's subscription Only $8 per Month No thanks! 😎
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Post by macster on Oct 21, 2021 17:12:06 GMT -8
Apple's advertising changes are not helping Snapchat, GOOG or FB...at all. Those three stocks are being treated, after hours, just like AAPL is after Apple posts a blowout earnings report. Snap Stock Plunges on Earnings. It’s Bad News for Facebook Too. By Eric J. Savitz Updated Oct. 21, 2021 6:05 pm ET / Original Oct. 21, 2021 5:20 pm ET View AttachmentThe parent of Snapchat said changes made by Apple hurt its advertising revenue. Snap stock is down by double digits in late trading. Snap stock plunged in late trading Thursday after the social-networking firm posted disappointing revenue growth and guidance that fell shy of estimates. The parent of Snapchat said its advertising revenue was hurt more than expected by Apple‘s change in the rules surrounding advertising on mobile apps. The miss weighed heavy on shares of other major social-media companies. Continue reading this article with a Barron's subscription Only $8 per Month No thanks! 😎
View AttachmentView AttachmentTwitter twtr is also down 4.79% at this hour
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Oct 22, 2021 1:38:17 GMT -8
From the comments section of PED’s link: Thanks PED, I always enjoy reading the comments section. I may not always agree with the contributions opinions but I always find value in their prospective.
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