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Post by aaplsauce on Oct 25, 2021 21:45:38 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,050
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Post by Dave on Oct 26, 2021 2:36:53 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Oct 26, 2021 6:27:43 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 26, 2021 8:06:37 GMT -8
I read a Science Fiction book "Change Agent" by Daniel Suarez where the AR glasses did just that.
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Post by duckpins on Oct 26, 2021 8:21:43 GMT -8
AppleInsider has 'Apple Glass' could project AR directly onto a wearer's retina. A bit creepy, if you ask me.
Somewhere in the darkness Stanley Kubrick is smiling!
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Post by duckpins on Oct 26, 2021 11:59:19 GMT -8
Well fans of money. TPOR is in the Biden sweet spot. Selling covered calls on same could produce 20% sometime next year depending on how one does it.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 26, 2021 12:50:44 GMT -8
TSLA stock outperformed AAPL by 5x in the last year and in the last 5 year timeframes. And Bitcoin USD(BTC-USD) outperformed TSLA by 2X over the last year. Do I wish AAPL had gained 351.3% from last year? Well, sure...that would be just fine. But my wife and I made our investment decisions long ago about AAPL, and the basis for our original investment hasn't adversely changed. Overall, I think the market is fickle(shocker!)...and I'm not inclined to chase after the latest popular investment. GameStop(GME) finished the day at $177.84...so, after being all the way up to $325.00 on 01/25/21, it's now down over -45% since those glory days. OTOH, a year ago, GME was at $10.47, so for folks who had bought in at $10.47, being still up at $177.84 should be some consolation for the huge drop since 01/25. The fact of the matter is that, with a brief search, one can probably find many stocks that have outperformed AAPL over a 1 year or 5 year period. For many/most of us, AAPL has been an extremely rewarding investment...but that's not to say it will always be so. However, so far, I haven't seen a stock that makes me want to move our investment from AAPL. YMMV FB with a slight beat of expectations (but below the “whisper number”) up 4% after hours. Facebook finished the day today, down -3.92% or $12.88 from their $328.69 close yesterday.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Oct 26, 2021 13:01:50 GMT -8
GOOGL reports a solid beat, over the “whisper number,” down slightly AH.
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benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,314
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Post by benoir on Oct 26, 2021 13:10:07 GMT -8
And TSLA is a bubble waiting to burst - with 5 years baked in that eye watering PE
and Facebook is a toxic brand - reflected in its PE 22
AAPL still looks like it’s within the realms of plausible PE based on its solid performance this year. However I have long considered a PE24 as being at the upper end of comfortable (armchair prognosis).
Staying long.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Oct 26, 2021 13:19:31 GMT -8
For many/most of us, AAPL has been an extremely rewarding investment...but that's not to say it will always be so. However, so far, I haven't seen a stock that makes me want to move our investment from AAPL. YMMV As an AAPL investor for over 20 years, the company’s success has been transformative in my life. But although I still believe in the company’s strategy and products, my mileage is varying. I’m not sure AAPL deserves close to 100% of my investment dollars moving forward, as it has in the past. I still hold AAPL but I’ve changed my perspective on AAPL to be more of a trader’s mentality, wanting to buy when the stock is beat down and sell in those (rare) moments when the market has bidded it up (for example when the RSI > 70). And this year I’ve outperformed my AAPL holdings by diversifying into SPY, MSFT, and others. It’s sad but I don’t think AAPL has the best risk/reward profile out there anymore. When is the last time AAPL has underperformed SPY for over a year during an uptrend? If AAPL has done worse than the average, that means that there are *many* stocks that did better than AAPL in the last year, not just one or two.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 26, 2021 14:25:32 GMT -8
Phew, for a minute there my weekend plans were at risk.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 26, 2021 14:40:15 GMT -8
For many/most of us, AAPL has been an extremely rewarding investment...but that's not to say it will always be so. However, so far, I haven't seen a stock that makes me want to move our investment from AAPL. YMMV As an AAPL investor for over 20 years, the company’s success has been transformative in my life. But although I still believe in the company’s strategy and products, my mileage is varying. I’m not sure AAPL deserves close to 100% of my investment dollars moving forward, as it has in the past. Given those two facts, "AAPL investor for over 20 years" and "close to 100% of my investment dollars", I'm surprised we have such different views of AAPL's future...since *your* investment history is pretty damn close to *my* investment history. I can only hope that you're the one that's mistaken. 😊 But, I wish you good luck and success in whatever new investment you chose... as long as it's not an Apple competitor. 😂
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 26, 2021 19:25:31 GMT -8
As an AAPL investor for over 20 years, the company’s success has been transformative in my life. But although I still believe in the company’s strategy and products, my mileage is varying. I’m not sure AAPL deserves close to 100% of my investment dollars moving forward, as it has in the past. Given those two facts, "AAPL investor for over 20 years" and "close to 100% of my investment dollars", I'm surprised we have such different views of AAPL's future...since *your* investment history is pretty damn close to *my* investment history. I can only hope that you're the one that's mistaken. 😊 But, I wish you good luck and success in whatever new investment you chose... as long as it's not an Apple competitor. 😂 Uh oh, that sounds a lot like not liking a certain company to invest in While we've done well over the decades, it is possible to think now, or anywhere along the way, that investing 100% (or more, via margin) in AAPL might not be a good idea. I like AAPL, and still think it will likely outperform the s&p and possibly the nasdaq. But, if investing all in one stock, that is higher risk than split off between multiple or many companies. Is the risk worth the reward, especially if talking about being 100% invested? There's always the "hit by a bus" risk, for the CEO or others. I was more worried that SJ was going to get bored with Apple, especially as he took helicopter rides to his other love, Pixar. But deciding to cut back to just 75%, 50%, 20%, or whatever in AAPL doesn't make one a non-believer in Apple. Personally, I like AAPL's risk/reward prospects, so am really not looking for other singular companies to invest heavily in. But I also feel AAPL won't always be a great investment, and the "hit by a bus" worry applies to me too, even on days where I don't make slabs with the chainsaw. If, 2 or 50 years from now, I wasn't around to decide when AAPL was no longer decently likely to beat an index over a medium term, would my kids, loved ones, or trustee be able to decide that? Likewise, is the Alpha I expect from AAPL over the indexes worth the risk, at 100+%, 80%, 50%, or less? At some point, I feel I can still really like the prospects of Apple, and yet be at an overall portfolio concentration of less than 50% in AAPL. But maybe that's just me. I'm in a sweet spot, thanks to AAPL's performance, that future changes in value aren't likely to affect our family much. At the same time, if I'm at my half-life, there's a decent chance that I will hit the B level even with just average long-term index returns. Obviously I'm going to have to up my spending levels so that that doesn't happen, while picking out some great "change the world" type beneficiaries in case it does. Good luck all. May AAPL continue to outperform, even if we don't all choose to stay 100+% invested in it. (FWIW, if you have a Trust and would want future Trustees to invest heavily in a certain stock, you would want to specify that. If instead it wasn't specified, and the trustee was to act as a fiduciary, it would be unwise for them to invest a large percentage in any one stock, and they could be sued by beneficiaries over this, or even try to kick the Trustee out. This would normally happen if the stock/portfolio went down, even if the beneficiary was for it while things were going up. I'd say "ask me how I know", but that's implied. As a fiduciary (EDIT: And following Prudent Investor guidelines that aren't exact, but easy enough to see that a microcap mining company or leveraged silver fund isn't a good choice, just as being 100% in any stock wouldn't be either), I had to sell certain risky investments that the originator likely would have wanted investments to stay in until a better exit point, and buy indexes. It's boring, but reasonably safe, especially when looking at a 50+ year horizon Lucky, and others, consider this if your real wishes are to keep investments in AAPL even after your passing. And think about what time horizon, and decision points, you would want (EDIT: for yourself, or others, to follow or use as a guideline))
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Post by hledgard on Oct 27, 2021 5:25:36 GMT -8
Really enjoyed your post, 4aapl !
I invested in AAPL in the early eighties, and obviously have benefitted enormously. But my enthusiasm as an investment is not the same as when I was a rare bird who used an Apple computed when some people laughed at it.
On the other hand, I don't have any real instinct for another option. And I too hope Apple is not hit by the bus.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,544
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Post by mark on Oct 27, 2021 7:12:25 GMT -8
For many/most of us, AAPL has been an extremely rewarding investment...but that's not to say it will always be so. However, so far, I haven't seen a stock that makes me want to move our investment from AAPL. YMMV As an AAPL investor for over 20 years, the company’s success has been transformative in my life. But although I still believe in the company’s strategy and products, my mileage is varying. I’m not sure AAPL deserves close to 100% of my investment dollars moving forward, as it has in the past. I still hold AAPL but I’ve changed my perspective on AAPL to be more of a trader’s mentality, wanting to buy when the stock is beat down and sell in those (rare) moments when the market has bidded it up (for example when the RSI > 70). And this year I’ve outperformed my AAPL holdings by diversifying into SPY, MSFT, and others. It’s sad but I don’t think AAPL has the best risk/reward profile out there anymore. When is the last time AAPL has underperformed SPY for over a year during an uptrend? If AAPL has done worse than the average, that means that there are *many* stocks that did better than AAPL in the last year, not just one or two. Because the S&P500 is capitalization weighted, this isn't necessarily true. If a few top stocks in the S&P500 outperform Apple, it could still be that the remaining 49X stocks in the S&P500 underperformed Apple. It could even happen that ONE stock in the S&P500 outperforms Apple, and Apple outperforms the remaining 498 in the S&P500 yet still be below average.
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