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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 15, 2013 16:43:06 GMT -8
The bar is open!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 15, 2013 18:32:35 GMT -8
We are all bored, tired and stuck in a Groundhog Day loop....
The pin today was so predictable, at least after the first couple hours of trading....
Look at MSFT. ..28.01.
Tech is tired....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2013 18:42:56 GMT -8
We've now had 3 consecutive days of .48:1 (0 percentile ranking) P/C Ratio (lowest ever recorded).
Long term Sentiment has definitely shifted to Bullish. The question is, when will the short term Bears go into hibernation? I'm thinking mid to late March, when the big boys have seen the market share reports from January and February, and received their supply chain data from early March. I'll be looking for signals (increase in the 5 DMA volume and an increase in the 5 DMA of the intraday low) of a run up commencing then.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2013 18:46:54 GMT -8
I'm calculating the rate of ISM compression post earnings, in order to get a handle on what we may expect the day after PO's and TC's Greek Tragedy from the night before.
All we should need then, in order to play earnings week with a high probability of profit, will be the prior Friday's intraday low ISM.
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Post by qualitywte on Feb 15, 2013 19:12:51 GMT -8
We've now had 3 consecutive days of .48:1 (0 percentile ranking) P/C Ratio (lowest ever recorded). Long term Sentiment has definitely shifted to Bullish. The question is, when will the short term Bears go into hibernation? I'm thinking mid to late March, when the big boys have seen the market share reports from January and February, and received their supply chain data from early March. I'll be looking for signals (increase in the 5 DMA volume and an increase in the 5 DMA of the intraday low) of a run up commencing then. Market share and supply chain data is all over the map. The reported data is never reliable so I'm not counting on that to scare any bears away.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 15, 2013 19:47:26 GMT -8
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Post by qualitywte on Feb 15, 2013 20:38:30 GMT -8
Interesting comments on the article about whether a bottom is in.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 15, 2013 20:46:01 GMT -8
As I suspected, the 465 puts gave way on Friday, dropping pain range to 460-464.99: It's weird, sometimes open interest numbers are all wiped to zero on Fridays; other times we do get "final" numbers. Regardless, they are clearly different from Thursday's: The 465's switched, and thus a 460.xx close is consistent with the final pain range.
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Post by sponge on Feb 15, 2013 21:35:41 GMT -8
Interesting comments on the article about whether a bottom is in. This is by far the biggest evidence we have that the big boys are busy in the option market. They sell stock on the way down and then buy billions of calls in the mean time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2013 21:51:29 GMT -8
We've now had 3 consecutive days of .48:1 (0 percentile ranking) P/C Ratio (lowest ever recorded). Long term Sentiment has definitely shifted to Bullish. The question is, when will the short term Bears go into hibernation? I'm thinking mid to late March, when the big boys have seen the market share reports from January and February, and received their supply chain data from early March. I'll be looking for signals (increase in the 5 DMA volume and an increase in the 5 DMA of the intraday low) of a run up commencing then. Market share and supply chain data is all over the map. The reported data is never reliable so I'm not counting on that to scare any bears away. I would agree that publicly available data is all over the place, but I'm pretty confident someone managing a million shares (or more), isn't relying on the stuff we see.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 15, 2013 22:23:22 GMT -8
We've now had 3 consecutive days of .48:1 (0 percentile ranking) P/C Ratio (lowest ever recorded). Question for those who know about this Put/Call Ratio: Travis from AAPL Pain has often stated that a low P/C Ratio means that a stock will have downward pressure on it, as the increase in Calls over Puts hold the stock down. In contrast, he thinks that a high P/C Ratio holds the stock up. Look, for example, what he posted on twitter tonight: But it seems like some here see a low P/C ratio means the opposite, that people are bullish so the stock may go up soon...? Thoughts?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2013 1:06:24 GMT -8
We've now had 3 consecutive days of .48:1 (0 percentile ranking) P/C Ratio (lowest ever recorded). Question for those who know about this Put/Call Ratio: Travis from AAPL Pain has often stated that a low P/C Ratio means that a stock will have downward pressure on it, as the increase in Calls over Puts hold the stock down. In contrast, he thinks that a high P/C Ratio holds the stock up. Look, for example, what he posted on twitter tonight: But it seems like some here see a low P/C ratio means the opposite, that people are bullish so the stock may go up soon...? Thoughts? Surely someone would have already witnessed a correlation between put/call ratios and share price movement if there was any sort of reliability in it? I think the people buying puts and calls are quite far removed from the type of people who buy and sell in large enough volume to change sentiment.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 16, 2013 3:36:29 GMT -8
Just wanted to clarify a post I made yesterday about NASDAQ launching 4:00 a.m. (EST) PM trading. Select Nasdaq stock have traded as early as that - I am well aware - as I wake up at 4:00 a.m to go to the bathroom and check my iPhone every frigging day ....only to see red and get a sinking feeling. The clarification is that the exchanges it was traded on are places like ARCA and others. Nasdaq was not involved until 8:00 a.m. (EST). So now they want to get involved in order to draw more in locally but especially to make a few pennies for themselves. I believe that other than adding a little more volatility there should be no discernible difference....just wanted to clarify...thanks!
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 16, 2013 5:33:30 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Feb 16, 2013 5:39:33 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Feb 16, 2013 6:07:07 GMT -8
This board has not taken a good turn.
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 16, 2013 6:43:34 GMT -8
This board has not taken a good turn. Can you be more specific and maybe suggest ways to improve it? Have a good weekend.
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Post by qualitywte on Feb 16, 2013 7:15:56 GMT -8
Nice, good to hear news from "back home".
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 16, 2013 8:26:53 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 16, 2013 8:30:20 GMT -8
Interesting speech TODAY by a well known author, former VP of the USA, Nobel prize winner, and member of Apple BOD; on THE FUTURE. For some reason he seems to be speaking against a certain fruit company: 1) out sourcing to other countries is bad. 2) robo-sourcing is bad. (He specifically calls out FOXCONN as a bad company) 3) smartphones can be bad. 4) calls out Red China as corrupt and without moral authority. 5) nice attack on Walmart heirs
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Post by jeffi on Feb 16, 2013 8:55:56 GMT -8
We've now had 3 consecutive days of .48:1 (0 percentile ranking) P/C Ratio (lowest ever recorded). Question for those who know about this Put/Call Ratio: Travis from AAPL Pain has often stated that a low P/C Ratio means that a stock will have downward pressure on it, as the increase in Calls over Puts hold the stock down. In contrast, he thinks that a high P/C Ratio holds the stock up. Look, for example, what he posted on twitter tonight: But it seems like some here see a low P/C ratio means the opposite, that people are bullish so the stock may go up soon...? Thoughts? Funny thing... Glass half full or half empty, sometimes just a matter of bull or bear. I have always viewed these statistics as consistent with Travis's view and the opposite of Greg's. Due to the mechanical unwinding of options at expiration a bearish sentiment (more puts then calls) acts as a support to price, and conversely more calls (bullish sentiment) than puts acts as a cap . Of course, the relative quantity of open options compared to stock volume will determine the strength of the pin. During events such as earnings common stock volume will usually overwhelm the pull of option pinning.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 16, 2013 9:09:43 GMT -8
This board has not taken a good turn. As Red said, we are all bored, tired, and stuck in a Groundhog Day loop...
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Feb 16, 2013 9:17:39 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 16, 2013 9:47:25 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Feb 16, 2013 9:50:47 GMT -8
Denmark calling for a hard reversal again or another 9 count down before a flip.
Also conversely calling for a s and p correction. Can the two trades be independent of each other?
Aapl is heavy every day almost.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 16, 2013 10:02:26 GMT -8
This board has not taken a good turn. As Red said, we are all bored, tired, and stuck in a Groundhog Day loop... The stock can be stuck in a loop. We shouldn't be. Regurgitating the same WRONG material and making absolute statements on the future isn't what this board should be about.
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Post by qualitywte on Feb 16, 2013 10:26:17 GMT -8
This board has not taken a good turn. Can you be more specific and maybe suggest ways to improve it? Have a good weekend. Let's talk about: - How Apple is still growing
- How the stock is manipulated (intentionally or not)
- Where is the good data and what does it mean? (hint... ASYMCO)
- When the stock turns back up, how quick will it rise?
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Post by sponge on Feb 16, 2013 11:00:02 GMT -8
Can you be more specific and maybe suggest ways to improve it? Have a good weekend. Let's talk about: - How Apple is still growing
- How the stock is manipulated (intentionally or not)
- Where is the good data and what does it mean? (hint... ASYMCO)
- When the stock turns back up, how quick will it rise?
bingo
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Post by prazan on Feb 16, 2013 12:09:07 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Feb 16, 2013 12:32:26 GMT -8
Sep to now is only five months. The previous significant decline because of financial crisis lasts eight months (count from May) to twelve months (count from Jan).
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