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Post by aaplsauce on Jan 26, 2022 22:45:25 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Jan 27, 2022 5:33:46 GMT -8
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Post by kpas1 on Jan 27, 2022 7:01:33 GMT -8
No earnings predictions here, but the stars align for me if the share price is in the 165-170 range at the close on Friday. This would max out my profit from a short strangle (short legs of a double diagonal, for you options geeks). All of the bouncing around of the last few weeks would be forgiven and forgotten. It is worth noting that as of this morning, the options-implied move (+ or -) is $6-7. If on the plus side, this puts us at ~170.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 27, 2022 7:05:23 GMT -8
I was holding off on installing 15.2.1, expecting there would be another full one soon. These days I don't tend to install software updates right away, knowing that problems sometimes come through and often there is no real reason to be the first off the line. Waiting a week or more is sometimes smart. But this one has a security update in it, for tracking. I don't feel I have a real problem with that on my iPhone, since I don't do a ton of stuff on it on a regular basis. But I'll ante up and put it on my phone early this time....after a backup to the iMac. Yesterday I saw a couple usernames I don't often see. Thanks for logging in! Try to find something to post on in the next week, but another option is "liking" (pushing the thumbs up button) a post that you find interesting or helpful. And if you don't yet have an account, please create one and consider posting. While many feel this is a great resource for Apple, AAPL, and finances, without taking into account all of our "guest" viewers there are times where it seems like the group just keeps getting smaller. It may be the mostly LTBH way to just sit back and enjoy the ride, but it's great to have thoughts and opinions from a wide group of people too. Thanks everyone! And I'm looking forward to hearing what Apple has to say in 7 hours.
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ono
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posted
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Post by ono on Jan 27, 2022 8:11:36 GMT -8
A recommended read: aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2022/01/fiscal-1q-2022-final-estimates.htmlMonday, January 24, 2022 Fiscal 1Q 2022 Final Estimates As of today's current price of $156.05, AAPL trades at a 23.4x multiple on my NTM EPS estimate (22.7x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends). Consensus growth estimates for FY22 have improved slightly, but still remain well below my estimates. I'm at +11/15% while consensus is 4.5/2.4% rev/EPS growth for the Fiscal Year. The fact that consensus EPS growth is slower than revenue growth proves those are flawed estimates not reflecting the significant leverage from rising gross margins and about 3% lower share count.
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Post by bud777 on Jan 27, 2022 8:31:19 GMT -8
I noticed that Tesla reported a six-fold increase in profits yesterday, improved their margins, and guided to 50% growth. The stock is down 7% today as a result. I am a little concerned that Apple will get the same treatment. It is not the fear of tough comparisons, although bloggers scraping the barrel for explanations have little else to fall back on. I do not believe that it is the Fed's action on interest rates. That has been foreseen for a while and should be baked in. Besides, how does increased borrowing cost affect a company with Apple's cash reserves? Once again, we must just put our faith in the long term and wait for the next leg up. I do believe we will see 200+ by the end of the year ( based on nothing but my instinct). is it too early to be thinking about a split?
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 27, 2022 8:47:05 GMT -8
A recommended read: aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2022/01/fiscal-1q-2022-final-estimates.htmlMonday, January 24, 2022 Fiscal 1Q 2022 Final Estimates As of today's current price of $156.05, AAPL trades at a 23.4x multiple on my NTM EPS estimate (22.7x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends). Consensus growth estimates for FY22 have improved slightly, but still remain well below my estimates. I'm at +11/15% while consensus is 4.5/2.4% rev/EPS growth for the Fiscal Year. The fact that consensus EPS growth is slower than revenue growth proves those are flawed estimates not reflecting the significant leverage from rising gross margins and about 3% lower share count. PED also has his recap of estimates, across analysts and independents. www.ped30.com/2022/01/27/apple-smackdown-final-q12022/Like always, the independents are more bullish, expecting almost 5% more revenue, almost 10% more EPS, and about a half percent higher margin. I still liken it to the Price is Right. The independent is the one going in, trying to guess exactly what the prize is worth, and maybe being a little bullish knowing many before under guessed. They throw the number out there. Maybe they get it right. Maybe they over guessed by a penny. On an absolute value, they might guess the closest. But in the Price is Right game, they lose it all. The analysts instead are a different crowd. Some might be more bullish than others, and some are so bearish they seem to do it just to get attention. Either way, they know the basics of the game, even if they might have an added incentive on the side that might affect the numbers they put out. But the ones just playing the game, they know they don't get added credit for being risky and trying to hit the price dead on. Instead, they underguess, giving a margin of error, a safety cushion. Maybe a margin of 6% is fair, letting them outbid Apple's estimates by a little when they choose to give them, but still giving some room for the unexpected, while also giving room for some whisper numbers for their internal and key external clients, if they are feeling bullish. That makes sense to me. Independents are going for glory, trying to be dead-on. But the analysts are in it for the long haul. It's their job, and there is a downside to overestimating, whereas underestimating publicly by a bit never gets them in trouble.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 27, 2022 9:14:46 GMT -8
For the life of me I can’t figure out why consensus on earnings was so low.. givin how big apple is, how many different profit centers there are now. Momentum alone will make slowdowns less likely..
Good that expectations were so muted but now all the chatter seems to be trying to reverse the narrative.
Post earnings comments from half these idiot “experts “. Will be laughable.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 27, 2022 9:16:47 GMT -8
Price to earnings for Tesla around 280.
P/e. For apple? 22. Big difference
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 27, 2022 10:14:01 GMT -8
I'm seeing a PE of 28.50 for AAPL.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 27, 2022 10:57:11 GMT -8
All things being equal, I'd rather be down instead of up going into ER.
Unfortunately, all things arent equal right now and even good reports arent finding buyers... the market's deciding whether this is the bottom or if it's about to go into full crash-meltdown mode.
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Post by duckpins on Jan 27, 2022 12:07:50 GMT -8
Many stocks and ETFs I follow have reached new (going back 10 years) lows on the both the 7 day and 14 day RSI. This means we are closer to a bottom than a top. Of course the market likes to go to extremes. So this may continue until something of significance breaks the cycle. Maybe some positive action the Chinese market. One wonders how far down the computer selling schemes can push the market indicators?
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Post by zebrum on Jan 27, 2022 13:08:58 GMT -8
I would guess blow out best ever quarter but the price falls slightly below the recent $157 low like AMD and Tesla have just done. Back to 180 by the end of the year, so many new product launches this year.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 27, 2022 13:17:08 GMT -8
Here's the bottom line on estimates courtesy of PED: But of course the real concern is guidance. Supposedly, analysts are looking for Q2 guidance at $90.6 billion, which would be 1% growth YoY.
Maybe a chance for a big guidance beat?
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 27, 2022 13:17:42 GMT -8
My bad. 26 pe less cash
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 27, 2022 13:23:54 GMT -8
I noticed that Tesla reported a six-fold increase in profits yesterday, improved their margins, and guided to 50% growth. The stock is down 7% today as a result. I am a little concerned that Apple will get the same treatment. It is not the fear of tough comparisons, although bloggers scraping the barrel for explanations have little else to fall back on. I do not believe that it is the Fed's action on interest rates. That has been foreseen for a while and should be baked in. Besides, how does increased borrowing cost affect a company with Apple's cash reserves? Once again, we must just put our faith in the long term and wait for the next leg up. I do believe we will see 200+ by the end of the year ( based on nothing but my instinct). is it too early to be thinking about a split? It all comes down to guidance. Musk was bearish on supply chain/chip issues, and WS wanted something new and shiny and exciting, but sorry, no cheap Tesla for the masses, no truck, and sadly for me*, no Roadster in 2022. *Saying I'm not getting a car is the opposite of car talk.
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Post by zebrum on Jan 27, 2022 13:23:55 GMT -8
We might see >$10B Macs since the laptops aren't shit anymore
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 27, 2022 13:33:02 GMT -8
BOOM
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 27, 2022 13:34:35 GMT -8
Beat like a red-headed stepchild.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 27, 2022 13:35:26 GMT -8
CUPERTINO, CALIFORNIA JANUARY 27, 2022 Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 first quarter ended December 25, 2021. The Company posted an all-time revenue record of $123.9 billion, up 11 percent year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $2.10. “This quarter’s record results were made possible by our most innovative lineup of products and services ever,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We are gratified to see the response from customers around the world at a time when staying connected has never been more important. We are doing all we can to help build a better world — making progress toward our goal of becoming carbon neutral across our supply chain and products by 2030, and pushing forward with our work in education and racial equity and justice.” “The very strong customer response to our recent launch of new products and services drove double-digit growth in revenue and earnings, and helped set an all-time high for our installed base of active devices,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO. “These record operating results allowed us to return nearly $27 billion to our shareholders during the quarter, as we maintain our target of reaching a net cash neutral position over time.” Apple’s board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.22 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on February 10, 2022 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 7, 2022.www.apple.com/newsroom/2022/01/apple-reports-first-quarter-results/
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 27, 2022 13:35:43 GMT -8
Like many on AFB, my wife and I have held AAPL for a long time, 20+ years. I'm more risk adverse than many other members and have never used options or any other strategy which may have been advantageous if I were more knowledgeable. When Apple restarted its dividend program in August of 2012, we were very pleasantly surprised and, while some folks are dismissive of the relatively low percentage dividend, we were pretty pleased to get any dividend at all...we very quickly decided to auto-reinvest 100% of the AAPL dividends that came into our IRA's. So, new AAPL shares are purchased four times a year with our IRA AAPL dividends, on the day dividends are paid, with no regard to the share price at the time...and we've done so for 9+ years. The average cost basis of the shares from our reinvested AAPL dividends is $38.48/share. Given the mood of the market over the last few weeks, it's anybody's guess what will happen to AAPL share price when earnings are announced today. But we do know that AAPL will distribute their February dividends sometime in the next two weeks...and if the share price goes down from today, the number of shares that can be purchased with those dividends increases. Since the share price is down considerably from its ATH, I look forward to an increased number of new shares from February dividends. If, instead, the share price takes off from here...oh, well. 😎
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 27, 2022 13:36:13 GMT -8
Holy smokes Tim said March will be better than December!*
*CNBC paraphrasing in a graphic.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 27, 2022 13:36:54 GMT -8
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Post by ericinaustin on Jan 27, 2022 13:41:40 GMT -8
Have they ever said Thad before? 2nd quarter never better
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 27, 2022 13:44:43 GMT -8
Holy smokes Tim said March will be better than December! Link for this, please?
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Post by hyci004 on Jan 27, 2022 13:47:15 GMT -8
Holy smokes Tim said March will be better than December! Link for this, please? ""Our biggest issue is chip supply, it's chip supply on legacy nodes," Apple CEO Tim Cook told CNBC's Julia Boorstin. "And we're doing okay on the leading edge stuff." Cook added that the December quarter was worse than Apple's September quarter in terms of supply issues, but that he is projecting the March quarter to improve. Leading edge chips are the powerful processors at the heart of a phone, while "legacy node" chips are the other, less sophisticated parts that run functions like driving displays or managing power.“ stocks.apple.com/AX6HSWOkvR9e8yKen_qujsg
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Post by Lstream on Jan 27, 2022 13:47:21 GMT -8
You guys have me to thank, as I went a little wild on Apple stuff last quarter. Including AirPod Max’s for kids and spouses at Xmas. I created a bit of a ruckus when they were hauled out from the back at the store.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 27, 2022 13:48:14 GMT -8
Holy smokes Tim said March will be better than December! Link for this, please? There's no link CNBC splashed it on a graphic. I think they were paraphrasing about the supply chain.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 27, 2022 13:48:26 GMT -8
Have they ever said Thad before? 2nd quarter never better I think he means better from a chip shortage POV.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 27, 2022 13:49:53 GMT -8
CUPERTINO, CALIFORNIA JANUARY 27, 2022 Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 first quarter ended December 25, 2021. The Company posted an all-time revenue record of $123.9 billion, up 11 percent year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $2.10. “This quarter’s record results were made possible by our most innovative lineup of products and services ever,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. Well look at that! Ending Dec 25th. Does that mean that this was a short Q, and next year will have an easier compare? Some articles out there were saying ending Dec 25th didn't give the Q the post-xmas buying. Nice work Apple. It might not carry directly into AAPL right away. But it will get there. That EPS is 25% higher than last year, on the biggest Q of the year, so if nothing else it will carry into the trailing P/E pretty well.
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