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Post by sponge on Feb 24, 2013 8:03:29 GMT -8
Gregg, all that crap you posted doesn't matter. WS doesn't give a damn that GM was out of this world last quarter. They don't make those logical comparisons if they don't want to. If sentiment remains the same, and there is negative EPS growth, AAPL will fall again after earnings. Crap? I call it gospel. Gregg may be tough with posters but he understands this company better then most. Forget the mini and stock projections. Our timing can be off at times. That's all. Many here get mad because they invest in time sensative options. But the reality is that Apple is a company that the two of us have followed for more then a decade. Many here just bought their first apple products or stock less then 8 years ago. Therefore it is easy to expect more from Apple. Forget the 36% drop or the $138billion in the bank. Apple is doing better then ever and it has a plan to continue growth for decades. I don't see the stock dropping after April.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 24, 2013 8:13:50 GMT -8
Sponge, Didn't you just post yesterday that you saw a selloff after April earnings, then a recovery? Or is that what you are saying now.......?
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Post by gtrplyr on Feb 24, 2013 8:37:10 GMT -8
Sponge, Didn't you just post yesterday that you saw a selloff after April earnings, then a recovery? Or is that what you are saying now.......? That was HOURS ago ... it's all different now ;D Just kidding. I'm also in the optimistic camp and think this will pass ... it's hard to keep the faith at the moment though as everyone hates this stock and the bullshit is flying around mostly unchallenged. Yesterday I read a article titled "Will Apple be around in 3 years" .... I'd love to meet the author some day .. preferably in a dark alley
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Post by appledoc on Feb 24, 2013 8:48:59 GMT -8
Gregg, all that crap you posted doesn't matter. WS doesn't give a damn that GM was out of this world last quarter. They don't make those logical comparisons if they don't want to. If sentiment remains the same, and there is negative EPS growth, AAPL will fall again after earnings. Crap? I call it gospel. Gregg may be tough with posters but he understands this company better then most. Forget the mini and stock projections. Our timing can be off at times. That's all. Many here get mad because they invest in time sensative options. But the reality is that Apple is a company that the two of us have followed for more then a decade. Many here just bought their first apple products or stock less then 8 years ago. Therefore it is easy to expect more from Apple. Forget the 36% drop or the $138billion in the bank. Apple is doing better then ever and it has a plan to continue growth for decades. I don't see the stock dropping after April. Yeah, okay. You and Gregg have been dead wrong for months. And when called out for it, Gregg typically resorts to childish tactics like his "ignore" episode after earnings. On the other hand, you either change the subject or change your predictions at a pace that makes them utterly useless. Don't get me wrong. This isn't a personal attack. But for the sake of the board, can you cut the bullshit? You're all about the long term prospects, but all your predictions are in the intermediate short term. New ATH in 2013, stock not dropping after April, $54 EPS for 2013, blah, blah, blah. This shouldn't matter to you if you truly are in it for the long term.
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Post by sponge on Feb 24, 2013 9:04:00 GMT -8
Sponge, Didn't you just post yesterday that you saw a selloff after April earnings, then a recovery? Or is that what you are saying now.......? I see 435 as the bottom. So if we get to 500 by April and drop 50 after that I don't see that as a selloff. It is now common practice to see 40 point swings. No big deal. Doc Don't get mad at me. But I hang out here more for entertainment so my projections are just for fun. Sure I want to see the stock go up. But I won't be shocked or surprised if we don't move up for a while. Yes I look at long term, but still think we will recover short term. It is important for me since I have been managing margin calls since earnings. I am not selling but trying to buy as much as possible. In three years it will all payoff and in 10 I will be posting from my yacht.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 24, 2013 9:31:32 GMT -8
The fact of the matter is that all smartphone vendors have had to deal with the same economic climate. True. But nobody is calling for their CEO's head, or demanding they produce this or that. They already are, and they aren't making any money doing so. Bullshit. Where do you think a huge portion of that profit came from? Samsung benefits IMMENSELY from Apple product sales, and is lauded for its business practices, while Apple is criticized for not doing enough of this or that (which would benefit Samsung even more than the relationship already does). No, you are not, as evidenced by the idiocy you spew above. For FQ2/2012 Apple reported an industry all-time record high Gross Margin. No hardware manufacturer has come close to attaining such levels since before 2000, and you are pissed that Apple isn't going to do it again? Management guided FQ2/2013 Gross Margin % (likely to achieve) to the average of fiscal 2009, 2010 & 2011. Apple's gross margin for FQ2/2013 is going to be hugely greater than any of its competitors (~40%). Apple's management guided $2 to $4 billion more revenue for FQ2/2013, than Apple ACHIEVED for FQ2/2012. The issue clearly isn't revenue growth, its the extraordinary gross margin % that Apple achieved for FQ2/2012. Further, future growth will stagnate only if Apple were to rest on its laurels, as did Dell, HP, Palm, RIMM, Nokia, MSFT, HTC, Sony, Creative, Archos, iRiver, Gateway, eMachines, Singer, Olivetti, Northern Telecom, DEC, Compaq and countless others. There is no evidence of that happening. To the contrary, the world is widely speculating (expecting?) Apple is about to disrupt the TV industry (with nothing more than unsubstantiated rumors to support the thesis). You are a great example of being ignorant of Apple's 10Qs, or the issues surrounding Apple's performance. Thank you for that display. Please come again. Yeah, I'm the idiot, Mr. Internal Numbers / Mr. there.will.not.be.an.ipad.mini / Mr. Ignore list candidate I already stated I am aware of the revenue growth and the impact of GM. However, revenue growth is undoubtedly slowing as well, and margins are unlikely to improve significantly YoY henceforth. Put the two together, and you'll realize that growth is going to be harder to come by, as I stated. Samsung's profit growth has almost exclusively come from their handset sales, not from their fabrication for Apple devices. Are you aware of that, idiot? Care to cite your source that Samsung's results were IMMENSELY impacted by Apple product sales? Or do the all caps and bold pink font make you automatically correct?
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Post by tuffett on Feb 24, 2013 9:37:56 GMT -8
Gregg, all that crap you posted doesn't matter. WS doesn't give a damn that GM was out of this world last quarter. They don't make those logical comparisons if they don't want to. If sentiment remains the same, and there is negative EPS growth, AAPL will fall again after earnings. Crap? I call it gospel. Gregg may be tough with posters but he understands this company better then most. Forget the mini and stock projections. Our timing can be off at times. That's all. Many here get mad because they invest in time sensative options. But the reality is that Apple is a company that the two of us have followed for more then a decade. Many here just bought their first apple products or stock less then 8 years ago. Therefore it is easy to expect more from Apple. Forget the 36% drop or the $138billion in the bank. Apple is doing better then ever and it has a plan to continue growth for decades. I don't see the stock dropping after April. If there is one thing Gregg has shown, it's that he doesn't understand shit. Gospel? Hilarious! Why should anybody forget the Mini? That wasn't about timing - both of you flat out said it wasn't going to happen. And then in the same breath you have the audacity to claim you understand the company better than most? Last quarter, you were eighth from the bottom of all polled analysts. Gregg was second from the bottom. Sorry, but you don't understand the company or how they are performing, you are more like blind, arrogant (in Gregg's case) fanboys who don't think critically about the company.
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 24, 2013 10:02:55 GMT -8
greggthurman ,
So what does 2 SD above SP500 growth rate mean for FY13 EPS growth rate?
Feb 22, 2013, 2:37pm, ibuyer wrote: What do you consider AAPLs EPS growth rate for FY 2013 and FY2014 to be called a growth company?
Feb 22, 2013, 4:19pm, greggthurman wrote: A growth rate that exceeds 2 (1 STD is too tight) Standard Deviations above the S & P 500 EPS growth rate.
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Post by wheeles on Feb 24, 2013 10:21:45 GMT -8
Bird, your comments are always valuable. I've been following Apple's grind across the channel for the past month waiting for that shadow technical improvement you allude to. It's nearly here, and a move up this week, with month end, BOD speculation, could get us into first gear... The shareholder meeting is a wild card. Apple won't DO anything, but might they hint at something right there in front of shareholders? Oppy's Wall Street odyssey this past week is also welcome and appears to be constructive.....the 456-8 area could be a battleground. An interesting ten trading days coming up.... Of course, the shareholders' meeting will be a wild card, but as always, rather than looking at what is said, look at the reaction (ie price move) following what is said. If, as I suspect, AAPL has been under accumulation by funds with a timeframe measured in weeks rather than hours, then the response in the days following the meeting should be positive. Then if we throw in more Apple TV chatter and iWatch stuff, with talk of imminent events, the buzz will get increasingly fevered. People will be saying how they should have bought at 450 etc. and how could they have been so stupid not to? Those that have been trading for a few years now will have seen this cycle several times over.
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 24, 2013 10:36:05 GMT -8
If, as I suspect, AAPL has been under accumulation by funds with a timeframe measured in weeks rather than hours, then the response in the days following the meeting should be positive. Then if we throw in more Apple TV chatter and iWatch stuff, with talk of imminent events, the buzz will get increasingly fevered. People will be saying how they should have bought at 450 etc. and how could they have been so stupid not to? I hope AAPL is accumlating its own shares up to the board of directors meeting. It would nice to be able to say how smart TC/PO has bought say 10B at less than 475 before the BOD meeting.
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Post by sponge on Feb 24, 2013 11:08:50 GMT -8
Tufft
You still got mad.
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Post by tourist on Feb 24, 2013 11:09:40 GMT -8
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 24, 2013 11:13:28 GMT -8
In three years it will all payoff and in 10 I will be posting from my yacht. Maybe from this boat lol Attachments:
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Post by PikesPique on Feb 24, 2013 11:17:22 GMT -8
Well, one man's yacht is another man's dingy.
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Post by hledgard on Feb 24, 2013 11:22:29 GMT -8
Visited the Mall in Toledo yesterday shopping with a friend for a phone. There is no question that a 5" screen is a big draw. The phones look great, even though they do not fit in one's pocket.
The big new market comprises those who want a small computer, with capability of a phone. For them, the phone is an app.
This is Samsung's primary draw. In a way, they are ahead of Apple. I do not believe Apple saw this market until Samsung crystalized it.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 24, 2013 11:26:39 GMT -8
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Post by seabiscuit on Feb 24, 2013 11:36:33 GMT -8
Agree - too much unnecessary confrontation here. Not so when Apple was kicking butt.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 11:52:52 GMT -8
the bullshit is flying around mostly unchallenged. Not anymore. I'm sick and tired of crap being tossed around as more than emotion release. If a statement is going to be made, be prepared to defend it with facts, not hyperbole.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 12:00:22 GMT -8
Optics issues aside, Apple didn't give out an EPS only because Apple is making everyone solve for share count. All of the other variables were given. So assuming share count doesn't move much from last quarter, we're looking at a "hidden" EPS guidance range of $9.25-$10.25 IIRC. I know this is a working theory, but to describe it declaratively as the reason for the Apple POB's actions is bit of a stretch, IMO. My problem with it is it assumes that Apple doesn't know how many shares it will buy back in the very next quarter, which I find hard to believe. And is the point of doing this little math exercise? WS doesn't like unexpected things and sudden moves. This obviously didn't go over well (nor was it presented well). My take away was that Apple is near finished with share buy back. Solvong for share count from Apple's 10Q/10K doesn't work if Apple is changing the rules with buy backs. I approached my CPA to go through Apple's Quarterly Reports to solve for share count. Beyond this being tax season he stated its a pain in the ass, as you have to go back several years to determine option grants and maturity dates. I've chosen to settle on last reported share count. Deviations from that will have a very minor affect on EPS. I have a suspicion that Apple is trying to weed out lazy analysts. Fewer analysts, but of higher quality, will benefit AAPL more than any buyback/dividend increase ever will.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 12:11:39 GMT -8
everyone is waiting for the next news good or bad to decide direction. The only news that matters, long term, is management's guidance. They, more than any other prognosticator know what is going to happen over the next few years. They may give guidance in 3 months clips, but you know they are developing, planning, buying materials and equipment for launches 3 - 5 years out. Anybody that doesn't believe that should go back to shining shoes.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 12:13:57 GMT -8
Your pride and joy is still denting the universe, Steve.
Happy birthday.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 12:26:07 GMT -8
No. No they are not. There is an obvious correlation between Samsung's success and their ad spending. Just because the 4S outsold the S3 doesn't mean Apple can't further improve the success with a good ad campaign. Advertising works - always has and always will. With the S4 looming, I really hope Apple makes a strong presence in advertising, if they aren't coming out with a competing product around the same time. Burgess, football games aren't won by accumulating the most yards rushing or passing. They are decided by who scores the most points, although one most times accompanies the other. There are only 10 reasons to be in business. The first is to make a profit, the other nine don't count. Apple is near the top in market share, and AT THE TOP in profits. Comparing Samsung's cheap, no profit handsets to Apple's iPhone misses the point entirely. As long as Apple controls the majority of profits (points) they are winning. That Apple is able to do that by not spending cash on advertising is a very good thing. After all, there is all kinds of advertising, the best is the kind that doesn't cost you anything, and Apple is the industry leader in that. Apple can't fart without the media talking about it for days at a time.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 12:33:23 GMT -8
No. No they are not. There is an obvious correlation between Samsung's success and their ad spending. Just because the 4S outsold the S3 doesn't mean Apple can't further improve the success with a good ad campaign. Advertising works - always has and always will. With the S4 looming, I really hope Apple makes a strong presence in advertising, if they aren't coming out with a competing product around the same time. Burgess, it seems to me that you are defining success as market share vs profits. That would be a mistake. Dell was #1 in PC sales, and is now on the verge of bankruptcy. HP has ascended to #1, and look how they are doing. Virtually everyone that competed on price is near bankruptcy. Spending money on advertising, when you don't have to, to maintain (increase?) market share and profits is a waste of capital.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 24, 2013 12:36:35 GMT -8
No. No they are not. There is an obvious correlation between Samsung's success and their ad spending. Just because the 4S outsold the S3 doesn't mean Apple can't further improve the success with a good ad campaign. Advertising works - always has and always will. With the S4 looming, I really hope Apple makes a strong presence in advertising, if they aren't coming out with a competing product around the same time. Burgess, football games aren't won by accumulating the most yards rushing or passing. They are decided by who scores the most points, although one most times accompanies the other. There are only 10 reasons to be in business. The first is to make a profit, the other nine don't count. Apple is near the top in market share, and AT THE TOP in profits. Comparing Samsung's cheap, no profit handsets to Apple's iPhone misses the point entirely. As long as Apple controls the majority of profits (points) they are winning. That Apple is able to do that by not spending cash on advertising is a very good thing. After all, there is all kinds of advertising, the best is the kind that doesn't cost you anything, and Apple is the industry leader in that. Apple can't fart without the media talking about it for days at a time. Yes, Apple has the largest piece of the profit share pie and by a big margin, too. However, nothing is permanent and Samsung is taking more and more of it. Thus far, much of Samsung's growth has been from cornering the Android market, but isn't the next logical step going to be an encroachment into Apple's share? I've seen enough evidence, real and anecdotal to sense this has already started to happen, and the pace will accelerate between the launch of the S4 and the iPhone 5S. Samsung is making aggressive moves while Apple seems slow to respond. I'll hold off on passing judgement until the next couple of months though. I completely agree with you that profit is what matters, which is why I'm baffled how you don't acknowledge the fact that Samsung's profit grew 76% while Apple's profit grew a normalized 8%. Apple is also guiding for anemic revenue growth next quarter and a substantial YoY profit decline. So if profit and profit growth matter, and they do, Apple is in some trouble right now. Get real. Samsung sells a lot of "cheap, no-profit" handsets, but that's not what I'm worried about. They also sell a increasingly high number of expensive, high profit handsets, and their growth in this segment is bigger than Apple's is. If you choose to ignore these facts, go right ahead. But the truth is out there. Samsung is not only competing on price. Nobody I've spoken to who switched from iPhone to S3/Note mentioned price as the reason they switched. The top two reasons were screen size and that iOS is "boring". Does that tell you something? It tells me Apple needs to put out a few models to appeal to a broader base (who will still pay top dollar) just like they did with the iPad Mini, and they need a solid refresh of iOS (which seems to be in the works).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 13:06:30 GMT -8
of all polled analysts. Gregg was second from the bottom. Yes I was, and almost an hour before PO stated that management had changed its guidance practice I posted that they had. My mistake, shared by more than a lot of those that post their estimates, was that I failed to see that management had changed its guidance practice 9 months earlier. For the record I have placed as follows: FQ1/2012.......9th FQ2/2012.......28th FQ3/2012.......52nd FQ4/2012.......missed submission deadline FQ1/2013.......68th My average standing (even with my terrible performance for FQ3/2012 & FQ1/2013) is 39th of 68. It is my position that Apple management changed guidance practice starting with April 2012 guidance for the June quarter. If you were to compare last three quarter's performance of analysts, to their prior performance you'd find a great, great many made the same mistake. Shame on us. That should not have happened. By the way, how did you place in PED's survey? I don't see "tuffet" listed, and you aren't bragging about it.
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Post by elmar on Feb 24, 2013 13:08:44 GMT -8
tuffet, I guess you are talking to a highly selective group of people. Because anybody who is calling iOS "boring" must be a geek! I personally do not want to play adventure games with the OS on my computer or my handset. This type of satisfaction do I prefer to get either from my profession or from (re)playing "Baldur's Gate" on my iPad. And I do know what I am speaking of: Nearly 40 years ago I have spent a lot of time programming in hexadecimal code on the first 8bit microprocessors. I really do love Apple's products because they enable me to concentrate on the real problems I have to solve and not spending much of my time with playing with my tools.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 13:14:54 GMT -8
Nobody I've spoken to who switched from iPhone to S3/Note mentioned price as the reason they switched. The top two reasons were screen size and that iOS is "boring". Does that tell you something? No, not when an iPhone 4S (a year old) outsold Samsung's vaunted S3 (which followed the iPhone 5 and 4S in December quarter sales). It tells me that you don't recognize % growth rate comparisons between disparate sized firms are meaningless.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 13:20:01 GMT -8
elmar, how IS Baldur's Gate on iPad? Never even played the first one.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 24, 2013 13:23:23 GMT -8
Yes, Apple has the largest piece of the profit share pie and by a big margin, too. However, nothing is permanent and Samsung is taking more and more of it. Thus far, much of Samsung's growth has been from cornering the Android market, but isn't the next logical step going to be an encroachment into Apple's share? I'm not sure what is "logical" about it. If Notre Dame beats Navy, is beating USC the next logical step? i.e., taking sales away from Apple is not the same thing as taking it away from RIMM and NOK and HTC. But the 16-month-old 4S sold better than Samsung's flagship S3 last quarter, a supply-constrained quarter for Apple. So where is your evidence that Samsung is taking Apple's share? I agree that Apple should increase its product release frequency, and cannot leave the basic design of the iPhone unchanged for like 27 months like it did with the 4. But they can't ramp the damn things fast enough as it is. No doubt, Samsung had a great quarter, but what about their guidance? Samsung just announced it won't be expanding capex. Of course some of this can be the loss of Apple as a customer, but could it be that Samsung is running up against the same deceleration of growth that Apple did? There is no evidence (beyond anecdotal) that Apple is losing a material net number of customers to Samsung. Quite the contrary, Apple has a retention rate 20 points higher (83-63) than Samsung, which suggests that Apple will be the one stealing customers away in a two-man race. Besides, when the ~5" iPhone comes out, that will fill a nice gap. A typically great article by the always brilliant John (Fal)Kirk: Does The Rise Of Android’s Market Share Mean The End of Apple’s Profits?Let me be clear; I am not some perma-Pollyanna fanboy. But isn't a perma-bear, end-of-times, nattering nabob of negativity just as bad from an objectivity standpoint?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 13:28:56 GMT -8
Haven't we been over this before? Thinking in terms of Apple "losing sales" is both mindbending and really not very logical. If a new Apple product is born surrounded by competition, how could it ever survive with all the preexisting competition? And with all of the throwaway competition in the media player space, how did Apple achieve and maintain 70% share in many major markets? The landscape is more than just the existence of competition.
For now, think in terms of growth, which magically subsumes all the stuff like competition. And when you start worrying about slowing growth, look again at the whole market and start focusing on the ones that really, really, REALLY matter (*cough Greater China cough*)
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