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Post by appledoc on Feb 24, 2013 13:53:12 GMT -8
By the way, how did you place in PED's survey? I don't see "tuffet" listed, and you aren't bragging about it. Typical. Predicting earnings is pointless, and has proven entirely fruitless for everyone over the last year. And last I checked, it hasn't gotten you anywhere.
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Post by elmar on Feb 24, 2013 13:58:09 GMT -8
elmar, how IS Baldur's Gate on iPad? Never even played the first one. Mav, if you do like the "Dungeon and Dragons" type of games you should certainly give BG on the iPad a try! I played it when it appeared on the Mac many years ago and I still think it is one of the best computer games of all times, especially when you compare it to the others released around the same time. And on the iPad I have not yet seen any better D&D game. Actually I am now using only my iPad for playing games, but this is probably because I have never been into those high performance shooting games.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 24, 2013 13:58:23 GMT -8
Nobody I've spoken to who switched from iPhone to S3/Note mentioned price as the reason they switched. The top two reasons were screen size and that iOS is "boring". Does that tell you something? No, not when an iPhone 4S (a year old) outsold Samsung's vaunted S3 (which followed the iPhone 5 and 4S in December quarter sales). It tells me that you don't recognize % growth rate comparisons between disparate sized firms are meaningless. Oh come on. Samsung is not some kind of microcap. No company is as big as Apple is so does that mean we cannot make comparisons? How about this one: Samsung's growth in dollars was greater than Apple's. Happy? I'm not an analyst but that doesn't disqualify me from making observations about the dismal performance of people who are so sure they're right and are so quick to shoot down any opinion that doesn't agree with their latest theory-of-the-month. JD, you have some valid points. I think the "proof" you are looking for is the huge gap in earnings performance last quarter, and Apple's dismal guidance for the next one, which is supposedly now more accurate. Keep in mind that margins aside, even the revenue guidance suggests rather poor growth. Perhaps that isn't proof in the truest sense of the word, but when Apple's largest competitor grew profits nine times more than they did its a cause of concern to me. Just imagine the field day we'd be having if those stats were reversed. They are just as significant when they don't favour Apple. I'm no permabear. I'm still very long AAPL. I just think management has shown complacency with regards to cash management and investor relations, and if nothing happens in the next couple of months, their products as well. This screen size thing is not going away and Apple would be foolish to not respond to it. Whether or not it fits into a hand nicely or not, there's a certain element of truth in what I'm frequently hearing - once you use a larger screen, you can't go back. Heck, after using the iPhone 5, I wonder how I was ever satisfied with the screen size of the iPhone 4. By the way, I'm fully aware my criticisms are a result of the stock performance these last few month. It is easier to criticize when things don't go your way. However, I believe my criticisms are valid.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 24, 2013 14:11:16 GMT -8
PERSPECTIVE:
"Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them going again. I trust you are not in too much distress."
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 14:14:15 GMT -8
Haven't we been over this before? Thinking in terms of Apple "losing sales" is both mindbending and really not very logical. If a new Apple product is born surrounded by competition, how could it ever survive with all the preexisting competition? And with all of the throwaway competition in the media player space, how did Apple achieve and maintain 70% share in many major markets? The landscape is more than just the existence of competition. For now, think in terms of growth, which magically subsumes all the stuff like competition. And when you start worrying about slowing growth, look again at the whole market and start focusing on the ones that really, really, REALLY matter (*cough Greater China cough*) Thank you MAV
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 14:23:39 GMT -8
Mav, if you do like the "Dungeon and Dragons" type of games you should certainly give BG on the iPad a try! I played it when it appeared on the Mac many years ago and I still think it is one of the best computer games of all times, especially when you compare it to the others released around the same time. And on the iPad I have not yet seen any better D&D game. Actually I am now using only my iPad for playing games, but this is probably because I have never been into those high performance shooting games. Call me more of a casual player. Never played a D&D-rules RPG, though I have played RPGs. That a problem?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 14:24:48 GMT -8
However, I believe my criticisms are valid. Then you won't mind answering my question about how your estimates placed on PED's analyst survey. After all, I responded to your disparagement of my standings.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 24, 2013 14:34:28 GMT -8
Mav, if you do like the "Dungeon and Dragons" type of games you should certainly give BG on the iPad a try! I played it when it appeared on the Mac many years ago and I still think it is one of the best computer games of all times, especially when you compare it to the others released around the same time. And on the iPad I have not yet seen any better D&D game. Actually I am now using only my iPad for playing games, but this is probably because I have never been into those high performance shooting games. Call me more of a casual player. Never played a D&D-rules RPG, though I have played RPGs. That a problem?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 14:37:31 GMT -8
Needs 20-sided di(c)e, man! Roll for initiative. Or...something. I'm more Diablo than D&D player. And really, I only ever played the Diablo I demo. (My clicking finger still has phantom pains.)
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Post by elmar on Feb 24, 2013 14:40:04 GMT -8
Mav, if you do like the "Dungeon and Dragons" type of games you should certainly give BG on the iPad a try! I played it when it appeared on the Mac many years ago and I still think it is one of the best computer games of all times, especially when you compare it to the others released around the same time. And on the iPad I have not yet seen any better D&D game. Actually I am now using only my iPad for playing games, but this is probably because I have never been into those high performance shooting games. Call me more of a casual player. Never played a D&D-rules RPG, though I have played RPGs. That a problem? No, you don't have to be a core D&D player for BG. Actually one of the intentions of its designers have been to make it also fun to play without the need to delve into the many D&D rules. You can, but you do not need to! I am also just a casual D&D player - but I do like to read manuals
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 14:45:22 GMT -8
One other thing. About Samsung's profit growth. You're comparing a pure play tech company to a chaebol. When said chaebol, which by its very nature will have a lower combined profit margin, has and always had always had a huge lead in handset shipments, is the Nokia of Android, and mix-shifts to higher-end smartphones with market acceptance, and said higher-end smartphones have margins even approaching Apple's iPhone margins (read: ungodly)...hmm, I wonder what happens?
But again, tech companies-to-chaebol(s?) comparisons. Samsung is experiencing massive profitability distortion because it's having success in the smartphone space with high-margin smartphones and some tablets. It'd be much easier to put things in somewhat better context if ONLY we knew how many higher-end smartphones/higher-end tablets Samsung was actually selling. (Y'know, that whole sell-in vs. sell-through deal the fundamentals people need to keep track of now.) And how many of those smartphones/tablets were of the important S III or Note IIs or whatever variety.
Huh. Samsung never says.
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Post by rob_london on Feb 24, 2013 14:53:36 GMT -8
"At The MobileStore, an Indian chain owned by the Essar conglomerate, which says it sells 15 percent of iPhones in the country, iPhone sales tripled between December and January, thanks to a monthly payment scheme launched last month." "... industry research firm IDC expects the Indian smartphone market to grow more than five times from about 19 million units last year to 108 million in 2016..." finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-signals-emerging-market-rethink-210352752.html
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Post by gtrplyr on Feb 24, 2013 14:59:09 GMT -8
Were pros at being belligerent a-holes ... we can do both at the same time ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 15:27:11 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 16:05:58 GMT -8
I'm confused about the HP tablet, its not completely terrible, and must be selling near cost. Half the price of the iPad mini, and specs are not that much worse. How are they going to make money??? They don't get any ecosystem profits from it.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 24, 2013 16:07:36 GMT -8
However, I believe my criticisms are valid. Then you won't mind answering my question about how your estimates placed on PED's analyst survey. After all, I responded to your disparagement of my standings. I'm not one to toot my own horn, but if you're going to give me a nice easy pitch straight down the middle I have no choice but to knock it out of the park. As requested: MacGregg's estimate: 5.2M Tuffett's estimate: 4.8M Actual: 4.1M Gregg % error: +26.8% Tuffett % error: +17.1%iPodGregg's estimate: 11.65M Tuffett's estimate: 13M Actual: 12.7M Gregg % error: -8.3% Tuffett % error: +2.4%iPadGregg's estimate: 28M Tuffett's estimate: 23M Actual: 22.9M Gregg % error: +22.3% Tuffett % error: +0.4%iPhoneGregg's estimate: 56.78M Tuffett's estimate: 52M Actual: 47.8M Gregg % error: +18.8% Tuffett % error: +8.8%Gross MarginGregg's estimate: 39.6% Tuffett's estimate: 38.5% Actual: 38.6% Gregg % error: 2.6% Tuffett % error: 0.3%RevenueGregg's estimate: $63.22B Tuffett's estimate: $57.005B Actual: $54.51B Gregg % error: +16.0% Tuffett % error: +4.6%EPSGregg's estimate: $16.80 Tuffett's estimate: $14.67 Actual: $13.81 Gregg % error: 21.7% Tuffett % error: +6.2%It's a clean sweep. The only item you were less bullish than me on (iPods), was still worse than my estimate. Looks like solid evidence that I have a clearer handle on reality. Not saying I'm a genius but I was within 9% on everything except Macs. It would have put me about 42nd, if the Revenue/EPS category is a blend of the two errors. Nothing to write home about, but I am within the group that clearly had a grasp on reality, as were most of us in the fundamentals discussion thread. I guess the truth is in the numbers. Source for my estimates: aaplfinance.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=fundamentals&action=display&thread=149&page=15
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Post by cbingle on Feb 24, 2013 16:37:03 GMT -8
Aren't you just the stud...
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 16:38:26 GMT -8
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coma
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Post by coma on Feb 24, 2013 16:54:10 GMT -8
Aren't you just the stud... LOL
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Post by applemuncher on Feb 24, 2013 17:36:29 GMT -8
everyone is waiting for the next news good or bad to decide direction. The only news that matters, long term, is management's guidance. They, more than any other prognosticator know what is going to happen over the next few years. They may give guidance in 3 months clips, but you know they are developing, planning, buying materials and equipment for launches 3 - 5 years out. Anybody that doesn't believe that should go back to shining shoes. "The only thing that matters, long term, is management's guidance." Really? What about actual earnings? Actual earnings growth? Investor sentiment?
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Post by tuffett on Feb 24, 2013 17:37:29 GMT -8
I'm confused about the HP tablet, its not completely terrible, and must be selling near cost. Half the price of the iPad mini, and specs are not that much worse. How are they going to make money??? They don't get any ecosystem profits from it. I don't see it getting any traction. There's no significant advantage to it over the Nexus 7, which isn't seeing wild success either. The Galaxy Note 8.0 will probably be far more successful, because of Samsung's brand image and their leverage of the Galaxy name. Price on that is yet to be released though, so we'll see. As an aside, I was speaking to a Korean colleague of mine. He mentioned people there don't really use their pockets to keep their phones in - even the men tend to carry backpacks or pouches everywhere they go. Therefore, a major inconvenience of having a large phone is lessened. I imagine this could be the case elsewhere as well. Could be a reason why the iPhone seems less successful internationally, in addition to the cost discrepancy.
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Post by nathanstevens on Feb 24, 2013 17:42:28 GMT -8
For those of you waiting for a sentiment change @dougkass tweeted that he is following Einhorn into AAPL.
He correctly called for a drop several months back when many were quite bullish (including Zaky). The question of if he just had good timing or actually instigated and accelerated the sell off is open to debate. Either way he was more successful than many of us over the past 5 months. Based on all the negative cheer leading when he was short, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see some positive cheer leading when he has a long position.
Perhaps his taking a position again when so many here are bearish should be considered as a leading bullish indicator just as him bailing was, in hindsight, a leading bearish indicator.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 17:45:06 GMT -8
Kass is a permabear. A smart (crafty?) one, but still a permabear.
It's always useful to know the bias of the advice-giving/thesis-stating trader.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 24, 2013 18:06:07 GMT -8
For those of you waiting for a sentiment change @dougkass tweeted that he is following Einhorn into AAPL. He correctly called for a drop several months back when many were quite bullish (including Zaky). The question of if he just had good timing or actually instigated and accelerated the sell off is open to debate. Either way he was more successful than many of us over the past 5 months. Based on all the negative cheer leading when he was short, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see some positive cheer leading when he has a long position. Perhaps his taking a position again when so many here are bearish should be considered as a leading bullish indicator just as him bailing was, in hindsight, a leading bearish indicator. He's gone from bearish to bullish back to bearish at least once since September.
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Post by nathanstevens on Feb 24, 2013 18:17:34 GMT -8
For those of you waiting for a sentiment change @dougkass tweeted that he is following Einhorn into AAPL. He correctly called for a drop several months back when many were quite bullish (including Zaky). The question of if he just had good timing or actually instigated and accelerated the sell off is open to debate. Either way he was more successful than many of us over the past 5 months. Based on all the negative cheer leading when he was short, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see some positive cheer leading when he has a long position. Perhaps his taking a position again when so many here are bearish should be considered as a leading bullish indicator just as him bailing was, in hindsight, a leading bearish indicator. He's gone from bearish to bullish back to bearish at least once since September. I'd argue that his agility has been much more profitable than my bullheadedness.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 24, 2013 18:31:43 GMT -8
He's gone from bearish to bullish back to bearish at least once since September. I'd argue that his agility has been much more profitable than my bullheadedness. I'm just saying that his bullishness here doesn't mean we're going to take off toward a new ATH.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 18:34:22 GMT -8
For those of you waiting for a sentiment change @dougkass tweeted that he is following Einhorn into AAPL. He correctly called for a drop several months back when many were quite bullish (including Zaky). The question of if he just had good timing or actually instigated and accelerated the sell off is open to debate. Either way he was more successful than many of us over the past 5 months. Based on all the negative cheer leading when he was short, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see some positive cheer leading when he has a long position. Perhaps his taking a position again when so many here are bearish should be considered as a leading bullish indicator just as him bailing was, in hindsight, a leading bearish indicator. I thought he was nuts, but in hindsight I'm wondering if Kass just saw the disconnect between WS analysts (for the most part) and Apple's new guidance practice, and saw the train wreck of expectations meeting reality. And now sees AAPL's bottom.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 18:35:26 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 24, 2013 18:36:25 GMT -8
Kass is a trader. Even 2% up might be all he's looking for.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 24, 2013 18:36:55 GMT -8
I don't know what Kass sees or doesn't see, but he's traded several AAPL short-term upwaves and downwaves successfully.
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