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Post by aaplsauce on Feb 2, 2022 23:20:08 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 3, 2022 7:31:10 GMT -8
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 3, 2022 7:33:57 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 3, 2022 8:15:51 GMT -8
Woof, on CNBC Laura Martin of Needham said FB's business model is broken and the Meta thing is desperation because the Metaverse is 10 years away.
I do feel bad for investors. I am no fan of Zuck or FB, and I know Apple is the opposite of that company, but when I see something like this, I gulp a little. "There but for the grace of God go I."
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ono
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Post by ono on Feb 3, 2022 8:23:55 GMT -8
India finally moving. Hopefully mimics the growth Apple saw with China. Be patient: Horace Dediu @asymco For the most recent quarter, the average iPhone selling price in India was $908, while Samsung’s was $278 and Xiaomi’s was $172. Apple now top brand by revenues, growing 34%.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 3, 2022 8:29:31 GMT -8
The story of social media has always been one of trends passing.
From Friendster to Myspace to Facebook to Instagram and now onto Tiktok. Facebook stayed relevant longer than most because of their acquisition of Instagram, but their time has passed and they know it. Agree that the pivot to Meta is a desperate flailing attempt to stay forward thinking.
Kids today never use facebook and many have skipped instagram as well -- they're either on tiktok or youtube or twitch and discord. Not to mention that facebook's products are now shown to be hazardous to personal health and the health of democratic society in general.
Even though they share some of the problems of Facebook (some of the stuff on youtube is equally toxic and their tracking is just as bad), Google at least creates products that are useful in people's lives, and people of all ages depend on google search, google docs, and youtube.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 3, 2022 8:35:53 GMT -8
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ono
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Post by ono on Feb 3, 2022 8:53:12 GMT -8
Painful to FB employees, who may have for 18 months been spending as if their RSU’s were worth a premium.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 3, 2022 9:21:08 GMT -8
This is of course revolting, but more importantly it may tell us more about rape and rapists than anything else. One can only conclude that sexual gratification may be less of a motivation for rape than the ability to impose one’s will upon the victim, at least for some perpetrators.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 3, 2022 9:50:35 GMT -8
This is of course revolting, but more importantly it may tell us more about rape and rapists than anything else. One can only conclude that sexual gratification may be less of a motivation for rape than the ability to impose one’s will upon the victim, at least for some perpetrators. Or maybe faux rape is done for different reasons than actual rape? I mean, are directors who depict rape scenes in their movies also rapists? Or are they trying to make a point? If I shoot my friend in a video game and laugh at him, do I really want to kill him, or just pwn him for competitive reasons between two bros? In fact, I've made some good friends online by shooting them in video games. I do think the metaverse might become one big psych (and social/political) experiment. And you might not like what you see.
This is also a basic difference in how people view the world. Liberals are aghast when they hear someone did a bad thing, because it flies in the face of their wordview, i.e., people are basically good. Conservatives laugh because it confirms their worldview, i.e., people are generally shits ("See, I told you so, ha ha ha"). And you can either laugh or cry at reality. I'd rather laugh at mankind's badness. If you have no expectations, you are never disappointed! I find it hilarious that on a day when FB is tanking and its very business model is being questioned, someone gets virtually raped in the first 60 seconds of its metaverse, which is supposed to be FB's savior. It's called dark humor for a reason, folks.
When you see me laugh at a (faux) rape story like this, you think I don't care about rape ("inthenthitive!"). Quite the contrary: Which one of us two do you think would like repeat rapists to face the death penalty? Another difference in worldview. Some would rather virtue signal about things, others are more concerned about outputs. The truth is, rape is about sex for a lot of rapists. There are supposedly 4 types of rapists, and only two are about power. But it feels so much better to make claims like "rape is about power not sex," so that has become the prevailing narrative. Anyway, such a cheerful day, isn't it? To be contrarian, I think I'll sell some puts!
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 3, 2022 10:22:28 GMT -8
JD,
I said “One can only conclude that sexual gratification may be less of a motivation for rape than the ability to impose one’s will upon the victim, at least for some perpetrators.”
I did not say that it is definitely true. I did not say that it explained all cases of rape.
But feel free to extrapolate wildly from my actual post in order rant uncontrollably in your usual manner. We are all used to that by now.
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ono
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Post by ono on Feb 3, 2022 11:58:30 GMT -8
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ono
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Post by ono on Feb 3, 2022 12:08:21 GMT -8
I viewed it as a catalyst hire. I'm hopeful we're just beginning to see the fruits of his work, 4 years in this April, in line with typical gestation periods for major new products. www.youtube.com/watch?v=djkeV4gew4Q ...thread of working towards "humanizing technology" John Giannandrea Senior Vice President Machine Learning and AI Strategy John Giannandrea is Apple’s senior vice president of Machine Learning and AI Strategy, reporting to CEO Tim Cook. John joined Apple in 2018 and oversees the strategy for artificial intelligence and machine learning across the company and development of Core ML and Siri technologies. Prior to Apple, John spent eight years at Google where he led the Machine Intelligence, Research and Search teams. Before this he co-founded two technology companies, Tellme Networks and Metaweb Technologies. Earlier in his career John was a senior engineer at General Magic.
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mark
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Post by mark on Feb 3, 2022 12:13:17 GMT -8
Woof, on CNBC Laura Martin of Needham said FB's business model is broken and the Meta thing is desperation because the Metaverse is 10 years away. I do feel bad for investors. I am no fan of Zuck or FB, and I know Apple is the opposite of that company, but when I see something like this, I gulp a little. "There but for the grace of God go I." So true. But we don't need FaceBook to provide that lesson to us ... we've seen our own Apple drop 50+% a couple of times in recent decades. Hey, has $FB ever dropped 50% since being a publicly traded company? I don't think so (based on a quick glance at their chart).
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mark
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Post by mark on Feb 3, 2022 12:19:44 GMT -8
The story of social media has always been one of trends passing. From Friendster to Myspace to Facebook to Instagram and now onto Tiktok. Facebook stayed relevant longer than most because of their acquisition of Instagram, but their time has passed and they know it. Agree that the pivot to Meta is a desperate flailing attempt to stay forward thinking. Kids today never use facebook and many have skipped instagram as well -- they're either on tiktok or youtube or twitch and discord. Not to mention that facebook's products are now shown to be hazardous to personal health and the health of democratic society in general. Even though they share some of the problems of Facebook (some of the stuff on youtube is equally toxic and their tracking is just as bad), Google at least creates products that are useful in people's lives, and people of all ages depend on google search, google docs, and youtube. It isn't FaceBook that is hazardous to democratic society, it is instead the ENTIRE structure of the system. Over a few short decades, we took the "public square", and wired it up such that you can't "hear" what is being said except through the filter of various private companies. So even though all the wires (or wireless signals) stretch through the "public square", you still can't freely hear everything because all the beginning points and end points are controlled by people, instead of being free for all to speak, and for others to listen (or choose not to). This, I believe, is one of the biggest problems facing free countries today.
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mark
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Post by mark on Feb 3, 2022 12:23:06 GMT -8
The Apple one on that list is FAR worse ... because it was a 50+% decline! I do not remember it fondly.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 3, 2022 13:02:48 GMT -8
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 3, 2022 13:05:42 GMT -8
AMZN pops 16% AH. Haven't seen the details on the earnings yet.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 3, 2022 13:07:47 GMT -8
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2022 13:36:30 GMT -8
Amazon just increased the cost of the prime membership to $139 a year. Mr. Market likes that.
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Post by benoir on Feb 3, 2022 14:10:25 GMT -8
Amazon just increased the cost of the prime membership to $139 a year. Mr. Market likes that. It’s like everyone was mesmerised by the FB train wreck then someone shouted ‘squirrel!’. How many stellar earnings has Apple had in recent times that Mr Market was like ‘meh…’ Mr Markey has issues.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2022 14:21:06 GMT -8
The Apple one on that list is FAR worse ... because it was a 50+% decline! I do not remember it fondly. You must be thinking of another drop, like in 2000. But even that one wasn't 50% in a single day, unless including margin or options. The Sept 3rd 2020 drop, 2nd close to 3rd close, was 8%. finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history?period1=1598918400&period2=1609372800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=trueTop to bottom intraday, it was 137.98 to 103.10 in 13 trading days. So a 25.3% drop. But this calculation is just looking at total market cap drop. The list I saw on the stocks app has AAPL at 4 or 5 of the probably top 10. AAPL's market cap is so big that a big $ hit can be a smaller percentage. Like JD, that this big of a hit can happen, with a profitable company that didn't just have it's headquarters bombed and half of its staff dead, is a bit scary in that the market is so fickle. I don't like some things about Facebook, but they are profitable, had a P/E below Apple even before this, and basically have a captive audience. For next Q, while expecting lower hours per user, they are still expecting more users And one article said FB is one of only 4 companies that has increased earnings (or maybe revenue) at least 10% YOY, for 40 quarters in a row. That's pretty amazing. As long as their daily/weekly user numbers aren't falling off a cliff, they have a lot going for them. I don't know the cost difference of a generic ad vs a targeted one. But I think if Facebook changed their stance, and acknowledged the privacy issue, they could move forward. In the book "Money", when looking at the first round of digital but anonymous payment methods, they found that people said that they wanted privacy, but choose to stick with whatever was easiest. Thus they stuck with using their credit card, instead of one of these anonymous payment methods. If the delta between the ad types are that huge, then FB just needs to push the option somehow. Go the annoy-ware route of putting a popup each time asking if you want privacy. Give "general" ads that make people wish they were getting targeted ads instead (ie ED, various medical treatments, heck even kids toy ads again and again and again). Go the good-will route, giving a percentage of the delta to charity, "if you choose targeted ads". There are lots of obvious solutions, and probably a lot more that they can come up with. They are profitable without this, so this just takes the PR and turns it, with also giving them more profit. Cha-ching. We'll see about the Metaverse. Things have been working on this and VR for decades. Watching an old movie, possibly Kindergarten Cop, you're reminded that even back around 1990 they had VR game station pods in some shopping malls. Our library had a demo about 2 years ago, and it was a good idea of a museum, where they had done 3d imaging of various things, including some vary rare pottery. Instead of this one of a kind piece being locked up in a vault somewhere, now people could "see" and "touch" it. OTOH, a couple movies show this sort of thing, whether Matrix, Ready Player One, or Free Guy. The dark side can come out, especially in an anonymous or semi-anonymous situation. But FB is at the place where Apple has said they have been at in the past, that they want to develop what eventually overtakes the current thing. At the same time, it sounds like Zuck screwed it up by implying that they didn't really know where things were going. It's one thing to think that, while already looking forward at a lot of different options. But if people are looking at you for direction, you don't say that outloud. Lead! While continuing to look at other possible directions too, to be prepared if you have to pivot. (Those VR glasses still look lame to anyone watching while you are on them, and have the problem of the user grasping around, hitting objects or people, and doing things that might look ok in context, but look lame on their own. See the VR section of the video on those GameStop investors: www.cnn.com/2022/02/01/investing/gamestop-meme-stock-anniversary/index.html I do like the idea of AR a lot better, but that's not to say VR won't go big)
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mark
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Post by mark on Feb 3, 2022 15:07:44 GMT -8
The Apple one on that list is FAR worse ... because it was a 50+% decline! I do not remember it fondly. You must be thinking of another drop, like in 2000. But even that one wasn't 50% in a single day, unless including margin or options. Yep, I mistakenly read it as Sep 29, 2000. That drop was just over 50% in one day! And using absolute dollar (or index) numbers is ridiculous. By that standard, the drop of a mere 38 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Index on 10/28/29 (and another 30 points on 10/29/29) was tiny and not even worth mentioning when discussing large drops.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 3, 2022 16:08:51 GMT -8
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mark
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Post by mark on Feb 3, 2022 16:18:21 GMT -8
I'm not sure why this chart is missing some days. For example on Sep 28. 2000, the adjusted (for splits) close was 0.82, and on Sep 29, 2000, the adjusted close was 0.39, a percentage drop of over 50%.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2022 17:04:46 GMT -8
I'm not sure why this chart is missing some days. For example on Sep 28. 2000, the adjusted (for splits) close was 0.82, and on Sep 29, 2000, the adjusted close was 0.39, a percentage drop of over 50%. On the top of the page, it says it is only looking at the days since the 7 to 1 split, in 2014. September 29th, 2000, sucked! It is just amazing to look back at it. As I wrote last week, AAPL lost something like 85% from peak to trough, but that big amount in a day, and even larger within a week, just made it so there was no time to react. And then it took 4.5 years to recover. It was like a week ago, in the 154-160 range, wondering when AAPL would retake it's 182 high. It seems probable and likely, and just a matter of time. But then Apple throws a earnings warning, before the rest of the market has, and the floor just drops. Like FB today, the floor didn't just drop, but is gone. The difference is that valuations are mostly a lot lower now than in 2000, and FB is a much larger company than Apple was at the time. Apple was still such a small player, and only 3.5 years earlier they almost went under if not for the loan/investment from MSFT. What a difference 20-25 years makes. Thanks Apple!
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Post by firestorm on Feb 3, 2022 18:50:31 GMT -8
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Post by deasys on Feb 3, 2022 20:51:59 GMT -8
Apple was still such a small player, and only 3.5 years earlier they almost went under if not for the loan/investment from MSFT. That was neither a loan nor an investment and I think that the amount ($150 million) had little effect on Apple's financial status at the time. Microsoft's acquisition of $150 million in special non-voting shares was in settlement of Microsoft's IP infringement of Apple's QuickTime technology: Apple Computer, Inc. v. Microsoft Corp.Video for Windows…and, in regard to "almost went under": History of Apple Inc."The day before the announcement Apple had a market cap of $2.46 billion, and had ended its previous quarter with quarterly revenues of US$1.7 billion and cash reserves of US$1.2 billion, making the US$150 million amount of the investment largely symbolic. Apple CFO Fred Anderson stated that Apple would use the additional funds to invest in its core markets of education and creative content."Despite these facts being verifiable matters of public record, the impression that Microsoft 'saved' unfortunately persists…
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 4, 2022 7:34:31 GMT -8
Apple was still such a small player, and only 3.5 years earlier they almost went under if not for the loan/investment from MSFT. That was neither a loan nor an investment and I think that the amount ($150 million) had little effect on Apple's financial status at the time. Microsoft's acquisition of $150 million in special non-voting shares was in settlement of Microsoft's IP infringement of Apple's QuickTime technology: Apple Computer, Inc. v. Microsoft Corp.Video for Windows…and, in regard to "almost went under": History of Apple Inc."The day before the announcement Apple had a market cap of $2.46 billion, and had ended its previous quarter with quarterly revenues of US$1.7 billion and cash reserves of US$1.2 billion, making the US$150 million amount of the investment largely symbolic. Apple CFO Fred Anderson stated that Apple would use the additional funds to invest in its core markets of education and creative content."Despite these facts being verifiable matters of public record, the impression that Microsoft 'saved' unfortunately persists… I thought Steve said in Walter's biography that Apple was in bad shape right then, and close to going under. That was 6 months or so before I bought my first shares (East coast MacWorld, while I was working the summer in Albuquerque at the National Lab), and so I wasn't trying to be in tune with every little thing. But years later, it has come up that things weren't great then. But like is pointed out in "Money", sometimes it's more about the words said and the backing, than the actual monetary value. As a Mac user then, I wasn't thinking they were about to go under. But looking at the stock falling, and reading other sources after the fact including some of the biographies and books one Apple, some were.
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ono
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Post by ono on Feb 4, 2022 7:37:14 GMT -8
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