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Post by sponge on Mar 3, 2013 22:01:53 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 23:41:23 GMT -8
Here's a rather long breakdown from Andy Zaky, (free access) bullishcross.com/apple-postmortem-the-40-crash-in-four-monthsThe (very long) post definitely needs some editing, and he contradicts himself at some points I believe, but its an interesting read. Bottom line he blames a combination of multiple reasons for the AAPL price crash, and from what I interpret he doesn't see any floor on the price seeing as its already passed all reasonable valuation metrics (according to his calculations). Basically if its already fallen this much, then there is no reason it couldn't go to $200.00 a share. Was quite surprised to hear that from an Apple Bull. |
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Post by rob_london on Mar 4, 2013 2:13:36 GMT -8
Here's a rather long breakdown from Andy Zaky, (free access) bullishcross.com/apple-postmortem-the-40-crash-in-four-monthsThe (very long) post definitely needs some editing, and he contradicts himself at some points I believe, but its an interesting read. Bottom line he blames a combination of multiple reasons for the AAPL price crash, and from what I interpret he doesn't see any floor on the price seeing as its already passed all reasonable valuation metrics (according to his calculations). Basically if its already fallen this much, then there is no reason it couldn't go to $200.00 a share. Was quite surprised to hear that from an Apple Bull. Yes. It needs a lot of editing. "First, we’re pretty much now over investing based on fundamentals, earnings and valuation as that has proven to be pointless". I think many would disagree... |
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Post by appledoc on Mar 4, 2013 3:37:20 GMT -8
Here's a rather long breakdown from Andy Zaky, (free access) bullishcross.com/apple-postmortem-the-40-crash-in-four-monthsThe (very long) post definitely needs some editing, and he contradicts himself at some points I believe, but its an interesting read. Bottom line he blames a combination of multiple reasons for the AAPL price crash, and from what I interpret he doesn't see any floor on the price seeing as its already passed all reasonable valuation metrics (according to his calculations). Basically if its already fallen this much, then there is no reason it couldn't go to $200.00 a share. Was quite surprised to hear that from an Apple Bull. Yes. It needs a lot of editing. "First, we’re pretty much now over investing based on fundamentals, earnings and valuation as that has proven to be pointless". I think many would disagree... I don't. Where's the new line in the sand? Because we've been slicing through all the other lines since November. |
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Post by appledoc on Mar 4, 2013 3:37:51 GMT -8
I hope he is wrong and we hold. 420 Why 420? |
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 4, 2013 4:09:04 GMT -8
Zaky provides extensive data in support of his conclusion. Summary of Zaky rationale for dismissing fundamental valuation as a means of forecasting short- and intermediate- term stock price: if a crash like this could happen to Apple -- a company with the best fundamentals on the planet -- then it could happen to any of them.
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coma
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Post by coma on Mar 4, 2013 4:37:56 GMT -8
. . . or the society that binds them all . . . 
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Post by rob_london on Mar 4, 2013 4:59:15 GMT -8
Buffett on CNBC:
I don’t own any Apple and I haven’t, though I did talk with Steve Jobs a few years ago about what they might do with the cash. The best thing you can do with a business is run it well, and the shares will respond. There have been all kinds of times when people have criticized us [Berkshire], saying you could do this thing or that thing.
And about hedgie David Einhorn‘s push for them to create preferred shares, Buffett was rather blunt:
I would ignore him. I would run the business in such a manner as to create the most value over the next five to ten years. You can’t run a business to push the stock price up on a daily basis. Berkshire has gone down 50% four times in its history. When that happens, if you’ve got money you buy it. You just keep working on building the value. I heard form people each time [Berkshire shares went down], saying why don’t you do this or that. Pay a dividend. I think Apple’s done a good job of building value. They may have too much cash. Now one reason they have so much cash is two thirds of it has not yet been taxed. When Steve called me, I said, Is your stock cheap? He said, yes. I said, Do you have more cash than you need? He said, a little. [laughs] I said, then buy back your stock. He didn’t. Now, when our stock went from $90,000 to $40,000 to $45,000, I wrote about, we wanted to buy the stock. We didn’t quite manage to. But if you could buy dollar bills for 80 cents, it’s a very good thing to do.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 4, 2013 5:26:26 GMT -8
Rob, love those excerpts -- thank you for sharing!
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Post by qualitywte on Mar 4, 2013 5:33:55 GMT -8
Buffett on CNBC: I don’t own any Apple and I haven’t, though I did talk with Steve Jobs a few years ago about what they might do with the cash. The best thing you can do with a business is run it well, and the shares will respond. There have been all kinds of times when people have criticized us [Berkshire], saying you could do this thing or that thing. And about hedgie David Einhorn‘s push for them to create preferred shares, Buffett was rather blunt: I would ignore him. I would run the business in such a manner as to create the most value over the next five to ten years. You can’t run a business to push the stock price up on a daily basis. Berkshire has gone down 50% four times in its history. When that happens, if you’ve got money you buy it. You just keep working on building the value. I heard form people each time [Berkshire shares went down], saying why don’t you do this or that. Pay a dividend. I think Apple’s done a good job of building value. They may have too much cash. Now one reason they have so much cash is two thirds of it has not yet been taxed. When Steve called me, I said, Is your stock cheap? He said, yes. I said, Do you have more cash than you need? He said, a little. [laughs] I said, then buy back your stock. He didn’t. Now, when our stock went from $90,000 to $40,000 to $45,000, I wrote about, we wanted to buy the stock. We didn’t quite manage to. But if you could buy dollar bills for 80 cents, it’s a very good thing to do. This does makes sense. |
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Post by qualitywte on Mar 4, 2013 5:35:02 GMT -8
Zaky provides extensive data in support of his conclusion. Summary of Zaky rationale for dismissing fundamental valuation as a means of forecasting short- and intermediate- term stock price: if a crash like this could happen to Apple -- a company with the best fundamentals on the planet -- then it could happen to any of them. Think fundamentals, think long-term, think different! |
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Post by mtjs on Mar 4, 2013 5:37:10 GMT -8
I don't. Where's the new line in the sand? Because we've been slicing through all the other lines since November. ... what sand? |
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Post by appledoc on Mar 4, 2013 5:43:22 GMT -8
The Buffett quotes are great. Now quit dragging your feet Tim and use the damn cash.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 4, 2013 6:00:25 GMT -8
Zaky provides extensive data in support of his conclusion. Summary of Zaky rationale for dismissing fundamental valuation as a means of forecasting short- and intermediate- term stock price: if a crash like this could happen to Apple -- a company with the best fundamentals on the planet -- then it could happen to any of them. Think fundamentals, think long-term, think different! IMHO: (non-advice advice) Long-term investors: dollar-cost average regularly and stop reading/following intraday if it makes you crazy. Intermediate-term investors: buy above daily EMA-13 with a stop below previous day's low. Investors who are scared of riding lower, yet scared of selling at the bottom: sell anytime, then place a buy stop or trailing buy stop (my preference) to get back in when price starts going up. All investors: steer clear of bullish options -- stick with SHARES only -- until we have a confirmed trend reversal. Short-term: see me in technicals threads.  |
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Post by terps530 on Mar 4, 2013 6:29:33 GMT -8
well it surely looks like the gap of all gaps will be filled today.
Sitting back and watching.
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Post by po1nt on Mar 4, 2013 6:42:01 GMT -8
well it surely looks like the gap of all gaps will be filled today. Sitting back and watching. Agreed. Raise your hand if you want this to just be over with TODAY. |
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Post by ahmpower on Mar 4, 2013 6:42:55 GMT -8
well it surely looks like the gap of all gaps will be filled today. Sitting back and watching. Agreed. Raise your hand if you want this to just be over with TODAY. Hand fully raised.. |
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 4, 2013 6:43:14 GMT -8
Exactly how low do we need to go? We touched $425.80. Was that sufficient to close the gap?
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Post by terps530 on Mar 4, 2013 6:46:20 GMT -8
well it surely looks like the gap of all gaps will be filled today. Sitting back and watching. Agreed. Raise your hand if you want this to just be over with TODAY. Raise your hand if what you want and what you think will happen are very different. lol i don't think it can be as dramatic/volatile as the 200day break, but I also am clueless. With no expected catalysts anytime soon though, I'm expecting the worst. |
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Post by ahmpower on Mar 4, 2013 6:50:05 GMT -8
Agreed. Raise your hand if you want this to just be over with TODAY. Raise your hand if what you want and what you think will happen are very different. lol i don't think it can be as dramatic/volatile as the 200day break, but I also am clueless. With no expected catalysts anytime soon though, I'm expecting the worst. I'm expecting a major V-shaped recovery. It's all about collective psychology. Now BUY BUY BUY ;D |
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Post by wheeles on Mar 4, 2013 7:01:06 GMT -8
Just over a year ago, the guy from BAM Investor predicted AAPL would collapse. His first predicted target was 426. At the time AAPL was about 605 and he missed out on another 100 bucks of upside. As AAPL is now around 426 and he's probably having a good laugh to himself, perhaps we can now see some upside.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 4, 2013 7:15:29 GMT -8
I remember all the frustration expressed when Apple was described as going parabolic. I'm looking at a 52 week chart.....what is the word that describes that trajectory?  |
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Post by ahmpower on Mar 4, 2013 7:17:49 GMT -8
I remember all the frustration expressed when Apple was described as going parabolic. I'm looking at a 52 week chart.....what is the word that describes that trajectory? I think it's called reverse camel hump |
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Post by Xphilos on Mar 4, 2013 7:18:10 GMT -8
I remember all the frustration expressed when Apple was described as going parabolic. I'm looking at a 52 week chart.....what is the word that describes that trajectory? scarabolic?  |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 4, 2013 7:26:30 GMT -8
Well, I have learned humility this past 52 weeks.
May it stay with me.....
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Post by sponge on Mar 4, 2013 7:35:28 GMT -8
I hope he is wrong and we hold. 420 Why 420? That's the number many have talked about as the gap to be filled from Jan 2012. I think 420-425 is about the same. It is not surprising to see GOOG up today. One day we will reverse with GOOG. I no longer see a V recovery, because it should take us 10 months. There will be less money from retail this time and it will take time for the stock to recover. |
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Post by mtjs on Mar 4, 2013 7:45:12 GMT -8
That's the number many have talked about as the gap to be filled from Jan 2012. I think 420-425 is about the same. It is not surprising to see GOOG up today. One day we will reverse with GOOG. I no longer see a V recovery, because it should take us 10 months. There will be less money from retail this time and it will take time for the stock to recover. First the stock will have to be cured before it can recover. |
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Post by appledoc on Mar 4, 2013 7:48:45 GMT -8
Amazing watching so many stocks set ATHs at the same time.
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Post by wheeles on Mar 4, 2013 7:50:33 GMT -8
Amazing watching so many stocks set ATHs at the same time. That's pretty much what you'd expect from a long SPY, short AAPL pair trade. I'm waiting for that to start being unwound. |
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Post by jeffi on Mar 4, 2013 8:00:56 GMT -8
Amazing watching so many stocks set ATHs at the same time. Hello? Apple's earnings YOY are expected to decline ~10+% next quarter. Canibalization with the iPad mini and the Macbooks. A maturing smartphone market. Lots of uncertainty. If Apple's profits stabilize and show growth the stock will rebound. This will take time to play out. No V recovery until this question is answered. Obviously AAPL is underpriced IF EPS growth resumes. Otherwise AAPL will cascade LOWER. In other words, AAPL is a turnaround play. AAPL is no longer a growth story that continues to get better. In other words, you can't just buy the dip and wait. You can buy the dip and hope. That is a different strategy. |
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