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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 9:12:59 GMT -8
Seriously, anyone else think foward EPS growth does not correlate to stock price in the medium term? Yea, actually. Given the way P/E has collapsed from 15 to 10, I think you would have a hard time arguing that there is a strong statistical correlation. I would be surprised if it was above .4 over the past year. It might be fun to calculate it. Eps growth has been averaging about 40% the last 5 years and yet p/e has averaged below 16. That is proof that there is little connection. You want more proof. Look at AmZN and Netflix. So if you don't believe earnings matter, than what does matter in regards to share price? |
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Post by ahmpower on Mar 5, 2013 9:18:41 GMT -8
Eps growth has been averaging about 40% the last 5 years and yet p/e has averaged below 16. That is proof that there is little connection. You want more proof. Look at AmZN and Netflix. I agree. This crash is a major disconnect with fundamentals, driven by herd mentality, and vicious selling cycles. Psychology is a huge component of stock price, IMO. So 800 is just as possible as 600. |
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 5, 2013 9:20:33 GMT -8
IMO, the only thing that matters is the collective perception of future earnings. Very different from actual reported earnings, as one can see with both amzn and aapl.
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Post by Apple II+ on Mar 5, 2013 9:23:23 GMT -8
With all due respect, I think you should try not to look at what Apple has done in the past...Apple was growing EPS near 100%/year for many years... When did four quarters of EPS last go up 100% y/y? 2006. 4 Qs through FQ2 2006, to be exact. (This is using restated earnings for apples-to-apples comps. Even comparing old GAAP to new GAAP, which is the wrong way to look at earnings comps, it was over 100% between FQ3 2010 a FQ3 2011, but still not "100%/year for many years".) |
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Post by Apple II+ on Mar 5, 2013 9:25:40 GMT -8
Let's organize the Vegas 800 party for this year. AAPL All Time High That's not happening. Would be happy with a 600 party! I say hey, why not? You could have just as convincingly said "420 is not happening" when we were at 705. I also would be happy with 600. |
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Post by terps530 on Mar 5, 2013 9:31:11 GMT -8
That's not happening. Would be happy with a 600 party! I say hey, why not? You could have just as convincingly said "420 is not happening" when we were at 705. I also would be happy with 600. everyone did say 420 was not happening haha. |
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Post by appledoc on Mar 5, 2013 9:35:19 GMT -8
IMO, the only thing that matters is the collective perception of future earnings. Very different from actual reported earnings, as one can see with both amzn and aapl. Amen. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 9:36:17 GMT -8
With all due respect, I think you should try not to look at what Apple has done in the past...Apple was growing EPS near 100%/year for many years... When did four quarters of EPS last go up 100% y/y? 2006. 4 Qs through FQ2 2006, to be exact. (This is using restated earnings for apples-to-apples comps. Even comparing old GAAP to new GAAP, which is the wrong way to look at earnings comps, it was over 100% between FQ3 2010 a FQ3 2011, but still not "100%/year for many years".) Yes, you're correct...but Apple was growing significantly from 2006 to 2012. As much as some of us don't want to admit it, there's a "law of large numbers" for a reason. Apple can not double there earnings consistently anymore, especially over such a short time frame that they did previously. It's not impossible, but without a few major new products, growth is going to slow down to sub 20%, possibly turn negative. That's what Wall Street is worried about right now, negative EPS growth. Apple hasn't done anything to try and stop this perception either, which is another part of the problem. Wall Street seems them sitting on $140 Billion and not using it for anything and saying "if you don't find your shares cheap at this price, why should we?" If Apple comes out with a new product like iWatch for example and it's a massive success and adds $5 Billion to revenue for the year, most companies would look at an extra $5 Billion/year and consider that enormous. That would only be a small dent in Apple's earnings for the year now. Honestly, I would be happy investing in Apple if they grew EPS at 10%/year over the next 10 years, that would be massive in my book. Especially if they returned all that cash to shareholders in the form of increasing dividends. I think if some of you are hoping for another 10 years like the last 10 years you're dreaming. |
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Post by ibuyer on Mar 5, 2013 9:39:00 GMT -8
Psychology is a huge component of stock price, IMO. So 800 is just as possible as 600. Mathamatically impossible! Unless, you think probablity of stockprice between 600-800 is ZERO! |
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Post by macwire on Mar 5, 2013 9:46:53 GMT -8
435 rejected. For now.
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Post by sponge on Mar 5, 2013 9:48:08 GMT -8
Honestly, I would be happy investing in Apple if they grew EPS at 10%/year over the next 10 years, that would be massive in my book. Especially if they returned all that cash to shareholders in the form of increasing dividends. I think if some of you are hoping for another 10 years like the last 10 years you're dreaming. Never say never. Since pps does not ways reflect actual earnings, we could have an amazing next 10 years. I can show you how market share can increase significantly in every category. Lots of room to see 20% growth for the next 10 years. We can't judge Apples potential based on 2 years of incredible growth that appears to have stalled. Today we are simply seeing a transition from hyper smartphone and tablet growth to more moderate. The big money will be in software in the next 10 years. Please read the Mobile Wave. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 10:02:57 GMT -8
Honestly, I would be happy investing in Apple if they grew EPS at 10%/year over the next 10 years, that would be massive in my book. Especially if they returned all that cash to shareholders in the form of increasing dividends. I think if some of you are hoping for another 10 years like the last 10 years you're dreaming. Never say never. Since pps does not ways reflect actual earnings, we could have an amazing next 10 years. I can show you how market share can increase significantly in every category. Lots of room to see 20% growth for the next 10 years. We can't judge Apples potential based on 2 years of incredible growth that appears to have stalled. Today we are simply seeing a transition from hyper smartphone and tablet growth to more moderate. The big money will be in software in the next 10 years. Please read the Mobile Wave. You do realize that if Apple grew the number of iPhones they sold at 20% for the next 10 years, to match the last quarter Apple would need to sell 300 Million iPhones in a single quarter. There is absolutely zero chance of that happening unless Apple releases a $100 iPhone (without contract) and then there goes the margins, and even then I'd say the chances are less than 1%. There is only 7 Billion people in the entire world, so not even regarding the fact that the addressable Smartphone market is probably in the 2-3 Billion range, you'd still need to sell an iPhone to almost one in 20 people in the entire world in a single quarter. Or if you're looking at the addressable Smartphone market, you're down to around 1 in 10. So in a single quarter, Apple would need to sell the latest and greatest iPhone to 10% of the entire world population. |
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Post by macwire on Mar 5, 2013 10:08:52 GMT -8
Never say never. Since pps does not ways reflect actual earnings, we could have an amazing next 10 years. I can show you how market share can increase significantly in every category. Lots of room to see 20% growth for the next 10 years. We can't judge Apples potential based on 2 years of incredible growth that appears to have stalled. Today we are simply seeing a transition from hyper smartphone and tablet growth to more moderate. The big money will be in software in the next 10 years. Please read the Mobile Wave. You do realize that if Apple grew the number of iPhones they sold at 20% for the next 10 years, to match the last quarter Apple would need to sell 300 Million iPhones in a single quarter. There is absolutely zero chance of that happening unless Apple releases a $100 iPhone (without contract) and then there goes the margins, and even then I'd say the chances are less than 1%. There is only 7 Billion people in the entire world, so not even regarding the fact that the addressable Smartphone market is probably in the 2-3 Billion range, you'd still need to sell an iPhone to almost one in 20 people in the entire world in a single quarter. Or if you're looking at the addressable Smartphone market, you're down to around 1 in 10. So in a single quarter, Apple would need to sell the latest and greatest iPhone to 10% of the entire world population. Dude just stop lol. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 10:13:30 GMT -8
You do realize that if Apple grew the number of iPhones they sold at 20% for the next 10 years, to match the last quarter Apple would need to sell 300 Million iPhones in a single quarter. There is absolutely zero chance of that happening unless Apple releases a $100 iPhone (without contract) and then there goes the margins, and even then I'd say the chances are less than 1%. There is only 7 Billion people in the entire world, so not even regarding the fact that the addressable Smartphone market is probably in the 2-3 Billion range, you'd still need to sell an iPhone to almost one in 20 people in the entire world in a single quarter. Or if you're looking at the addressable Smartphone market, you're down to around 1 in 10. So in a single quarter, Apple would need to sell the latest and greatest iPhone to 10% of the entire world population. Dude just stop lol. LOL, I guess I should stop using math and common sense, but while I'm 100% long in Apple and an uber bull, I think this kind of bull case is a little ridiculous. Nevermind that I think projecting more than 2 or 3 years out is a pointless exercise, but to try and project for the next 10 years is foolish. Look at where Apple was 10 years ago...could anyone have predicted this? |
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Post by ibuyer on Mar 5, 2013 10:13:44 GMT -8
Never say never. Since pps does not ways reflect actual earnings, we could have an amazing next 10 years. I can show you how market share can increase significantly in every category. Lots of room to see 20% growth for the next 10 years. We can't judge Apples potential based on 2 years of incredible growth that appears to have stalled. Today we are simply seeing a transition from hyper smartphone and tablet growth to more moderate. The big money will be in software in the next 10 years. Please read the Mobile Wave. You do realize that if Apple grew the number of iPhones they sold at 20% for the next 10 years, to match the last quarter Apple would need to sell 300 Million iPhones in a single quarter. There is absolutely zero chance of that happening unless Apple releases a $100 iPhone (without contract) and then there goes the margins, and even then I'd say the chances are less than 1%. There is only 7 Billion people in the entire world, so not even regarding the fact that the addressable Smartphone market is probably in the 2-3 Billion range, you'd still need to sell an iPhone to almost one in 20 people in the entire world in a single quarter. Or if you're looking at the addressable Smartphone market, you're down to around 1 in 10. So in a single quarter, Apple would need to sell the latest and greatest iPhone to 10% of the entire world population. Wow if EPS grows at 20% p.a. for 10 years, FY23 EPS will be ~250B per year! At a 10 multiple plus cash of 500B = 3T |
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Post by rickag on Mar 5, 2013 10:25:10 GMT -8
Never say never. Since pps does not ways reflect actual earnings, we could have an amazing next 10 years. I can show you how market share can increase significantly in every category. Lots of room to see 20% growth for the next 10 years. We can't judge Apples potential based on 2 years of incredible growth that appears to have stalled. Today we are simply seeing a transition from hyper smartphone and tablet growth to more moderate. The big money will be in software in the next 10 years. Please read the Mobile Wave. You do realize that if Apple grew the number of iPhones they sold at 20% for the next 10 years, to match the last quarter Apple would need to sell 300 Million iPhones in a single quarter. There is absolutely zero chance of that happening unless Apple releases a $100 iPhone (without contract) and then there goes the margins, and even then I'd say the chances are less than 1%. There is only 7 Billion people in the entire world, so not even regarding the fact that the addressable Smartphone market is probably in the 2-3 Billion range, you'd still need to sell an iPhone to almost one in 20 people in the entire world in a single quarter. Or if you're looking at the addressable Smartphone market, you're down to around 1 in 10. So in a single quarter, Apple would need to sell the latest and greatest iPhone to 10% of the entire world population. You are correct, but are only looking at the iPhone. The tablet market is growing and the iPad growth rate exceeds that of the iPhone from each starting point. And yes over 10 years even the iPad's growth won't sustain 20% over 10 years. But Apple's computer market share has room to grow, how much is a question. The next battle will be over the home and convergence. This I believe will be the next great disruption and believe Apple may spearhead this market. But yes you're right and betting on sustaining 20% gowth over 10 years is a gamble. |
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 5, 2013 10:36:03 GMT -8
Since we're talking pie in the sky 10-year possibilities, I think Apple will continue to expand into lucrative services, especially payments/banking. After disrupting the music, movie, phone, and PC businesses, followed by TV, could credit cards and banking be next? They are better capitalized than most banks, and the CC industry needs disruption just as much as the TV industry.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 5, 2013 10:49:35 GMT -8
You do realize that if Apple grew the number of iPhones they sold at 20% for the next 10 years, to match the last quarter Apple would need to sell 300 Million iPhones in a single quarter. There is absolutely zero chance of that happening unless Apple releases a $100 iPhone (without contract) and then there goes the margins, and even then I'd say the chances are less than 1%. There is only 7 Billion people in the entire world, so not even regarding the fact that the addressable Smartphone market is probably in the 2-3 Billion range, you'd still need to sell an iPhone to almost one in 20 people in the entire world in a single quarter. Or if you're looking at the addressable Smartphone market, you're down to around 1 in 10. So in a single quarter, Apple would need to sell the latest and greatest iPhone to 10% of the entire world population. You need to give Sponge the benefit of the the doubt. No where does he say that he is restricting his forecasts to the known solar system. |
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Post by appleiie on Mar 5, 2013 10:57:36 GMT -8
No way Apple will get into credit card banking. Dodd-Frank is too onerous and the CFPB would love to attack them.
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Post by seabiscuit on Mar 5, 2013 11:19:12 GMT -8
When did four quarters of EPS last go up 100% y/y? 2006. 4 Qs through FQ2 2006, to be exact. (This is using restated earnings for apples-to-apples comps. Even comparing old GAAP to new GAAP, which is the wrong way to look at earnings comps, it was over 100% between FQ3 2010 a FQ3 2011, but still not "100%/year for many years".) Yes, you're correct...but Apple was growing significantly from 2006 to 2012. As much as some of us don't want to admit it, there's a "law of large numbers" for a reason. Apple can not double there earnings consistently anymore, especially over such a short time frame that they did previously. It's not impossible, but without a few major new products, growth is going to slow down to sub 20%, possibly turn negative. That's what Wall Street is worried about right now, negative EPS growth. Apple hasn't done anything to try and stop this perception either, which is another part of the problem. Wall Street seems them sitting on $140 Billion and not using it for anything and saying "if you don't find your shares cheap at this price, why should we?" If Apple comes out with a new product like iWatch for example and it's a massive success and adds $5 Billion to revenue for the year, most companies would look at an extra $5 Billion/year and consider that enormous. That would only be a small dent in Apple's earnings for the year now. Honestly, I would be happy investing in Apple if they grew EPS at 10%/year over the next 10 years, that would be massive in my book. Especially if they returned all that cash to shareholders in the form of increasing dividends. I think if some of you are hoping for another 10 years like the last 10 years you're dreaming. I take this myself with a huge grain of salt, but my son lives in SF and he has a friend who has a girlfriend (I know this is getting to be a long connection) who works in Apple's R&D area. The story is that this girl told him that Apple is working on some "unbelievable" things. OK - I know this is far out, but not all that long ago when pagers were the big thing the current smartphone would be unbelievable. So right now, will the next 10 years be like the last? Inb terms of technolgy acceleration it will be better. How this will affect Apple is speculation, but right now, I continue to believe that no company is positioned better than Apple to take advantage in new technolgies in the coming years.. |
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Post by macwire on Mar 5, 2013 11:37:18 GMT -8
LOL, I guess I should stop using math and common sense, but while I'm 100% long in Apple and an uber bull, I think this kind of bull case is a little ridiculous. Nevermind that I think projecting more than 2 or 3 years out is a pointless exercise, but to try and project for the next 10 years is foolish. Look at where Apple was 10 years ago...could anyone have predicted this? You took that the wrong way. lol. You aren't gonna change his thinking. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 11:49:48 GMT -8
I'm as big of a bull as most of the people on here, but 10 years ago Apple reported 1.375 Billion in revenue in the first quarter...last quarter they had 54.5 Billion. If that trend continues over the next 10 years, they'd be reporting 2 Trillion in revenue in a single quarter. With 40% margin, that's 800 Million in earnings in a single quarter.
I guess if you want to get crazy and think this could actually happen, then imagine what the dividend would be if their payout ratio was 50% or 400 Billion. If the share count was still around 900 Million, they'd be paying out almost $450/share in dividends every quarter.
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Post by sponge on Mar 5, 2013 12:02:17 GMT -8
I'm as big of a bull as most of the people on here, but 10 years ago Apple reported 1.375 Billion in revenue in the first quarter...last quarter they had 54.5 Billion. If that trend continues over the next 10 years, they'd be reporting 2 Trillion in revenue in a single quarter. With 40% margin, that's 800 Million in earnings in a single quarter. I guess if you want to get crazy and think this could actually happen, then imagine what the dividend would be if their payout ratio was 50% or 400 Billion. If the share count was still around 900 Million, they'd be paying out almost $450/share in dividends every quarter. LOL No sooner did you guys call me from out of space and the stock started to drop. At this rate we may go negative by end of the day. |
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Post by dreamRaj on Mar 5, 2013 12:07:49 GMT -8
I'm as big of a bull as most of the people on here, but 10 years ago Apple reported 1.375 Billion in revenue in the first quarter...last quarter they had 54.5 Billion. If that trend continues over the next 10 years, they'd be reporting 2 Trillion in revenue in a single quarter. With 40% margin, that's 800 Million in earnings in a single quarter. I guess if you want to get crazy and think this could actually happen, then imagine what the dividend would be if their payout ratio was 50% or 400 Billion. If the share count was still around 900 Million, they'd be paying out almost $450/share in dividends every quarter. Sweet. |
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Post by sponge on Mar 5, 2013 12:08:03 GMT -8
I take this myself with a huge grain of salt, but my son lives in SF and he has a friend who has a girlfriend (I know this is getting to be a long connection) who works in Apple's R&D area. The story is that this girl told him that Apple is working on some "unbelievable" things. OK - I know this is far out, but not all that long ago when pagers were the big thing the current smartphone would be unbelievable. So right now, will the next 10 years be like the last? Inb terms of technolgy acceleration it will be better. How this will affect Apple is speculation, but right now, I continue to believe that no company is positioned better than Apple to take advantage in new technolgies in the coming years.. What you are reporting is nothing new. Look it very simple. TC and SJ spelled out for us in the last 10 years. Apple makes products people love. Johnny pointed out that people have a relationship with their phones. The HALO affect is huge and it takes 5-10 years to really develop. However Apple filed for over 900 patents in 2011 and over 1000 patents in 2012. Many will never see production and many more have nothing to do with Apple's line of business. However the stuff that they are working on will blow you away. it is no secret. They are in a position that no other company is in. They can introduce any new product or service and it will be a hit. They are not in a hurry. There is plenty of growth in the existing products. Heck all they need is to give us a faster phone with a better camera and we get 40% growth from prior year model. They plenty of time to perfect their products and release them when they are good and ready. I am patiently waiting to be pleasantly surprised with some amazing stuff in the next 10 years. |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 5, 2013 12:17:02 GMT -8
The 430 pivot behaving pretty darn well. I would like to see 22 million shares today...or above....with a push into the close,
Oh, and Ice Cream...I want that too.
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Post by po1nt on Mar 5, 2013 12:25:36 GMT -8
The 430 pivot behaving pretty darn well. I would like to see 22 million shares today...or above....with a push into the close, Oh, and Ice Cream...I want that too. +1 |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 5, 2013 12:32:15 GMT -8
435 is kind of the "classic" trigger buy IF anyone dares. That's a potentially risky inverse head-and-shoulders follow-through play.
I'm just checking in on the price action while waiting for something more concrete. Like a cash conference or a Dalrymple "yep".
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Post by Apple II+ on Mar 5, 2013 12:45:04 GMT -8
Never say never. Since pps does not ways reflect actual earnings, we could have an amazing next 10 years. I can show you how market share can increase significantly in every category. Lots of room to see 20% growth for the next 10 years. We can't judge Apples potential based on 2 years of incredible growth that appears to have stalled. Today we are simply seeing a transition from hyper smartphone and tablet growth to more moderate. The big money will be in software in the next 10 years. Please read the Mobile Wave. You do realize that if Apple grew the number of iPhones they sold at 20% for the next 10 years, to match the last quarter Apple would need to sell 300 Million iPhones in a single quarter. There is absolutely zero chance of that happening unless Apple releases a $100 iPhone (without contract) and then there goes the margins, and even then I'd say the chances are less than 1%. There is only 7 Billion people in the entire world, so not even regarding the fact that the addressable Smartphone market is probably in the 2-3 Billion range, you'd still need to sell an iPhone to almost one in 20 people in the entire world in a single quarter. Or if you're looking at the addressable Smartphone market, you're down to around 1 in 10. So in a single quarter, Apple would need to sell the latest and greatest iPhone to 10% of the entire world population. If we're going to do math with one crazy input (20% annual iPhone growth for 10 years), let's see what assumptions can get us there. So instead of using Apple's highest single quarter iPhone number, let's start with the more modest last 4 quarters of iPhone sell-through. So, we begin with about 132 million iPhones sold in a year. They'd need to sell about 815 million per year 10 years later to have grown 20% per year. Ok, so 815 million phones, but how big would the market have to be? If we assume that by then the smartphone market = the cellphone market and that it has grown to 3 billion per year, then iPhone would need 27% market share world-wide. If you assume the market is only 2 billion per year, then iPhone would need about 41% market share. |
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Post by gvsmitty19 on Mar 5, 2013 12:50:47 GMT -8
I like this wave of new buzz I'm seeing.
iWatch
Squeezable iPhones and iPads
Fingerprint sensor
And let's not forget Apple TV
Just when everyone thinks they've figured out Apple and that they're out of new ideas, Apple has a way of showing the consumer a brand new way of thinking about technology.
Will anyone really care about old boring smartphones if Apple can come out with wearable technology or a phone that bends and senses?
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