Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Nov 9, 2022 2:44:05 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Nov 9, 2022 2:52:30 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Nov 9, 2022 6:34:22 GMT -8
It would appear that Mr. Market wasn't happy with the election results. I see a sea of red.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Nov 9, 2022 6:39:37 GMT -8
This is from my post from yesterday:
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Nov 9, 2022 9:32:05 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 9, 2022 9:45:19 GMT -8
It would appear that Mr. Market wasn't happy with the election results. I see a sea of red. Dave, We've seen a "sea of red" in the market for most of 2022...AAPL is down almost -25% for the year. The Dow was down to 28,725 at the end of September...today it's at 32,835...up over 4100 from then. I don't think the election has much to do with Mr. Market's disposition. If it did, Meta wouldn't be green and up +7.61%*. * Just saw that META is laying off more than 11,000 employees, about 13% of its workforce.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,090
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Post by Dave on Nov 9, 2022 10:57:58 GMT -8
It would appear that Mr. Market wasn't happy with the election results. I see a sea of red. Dave, We've seen a "sea of red" in the market for most of 2022...AAPL is down almost -25% for the year. The Dow was down to 28,725 at the end of September...today it's at 32,835...up over 4100 from then. I don't think the election has much to do with Mr. Market's disposition. If it did, Meta wouldn't be green and up +7.61%. I was making reference to my first post and link of the day. This morning the news feeds were full of uncertainty as they waited for the election results. Tomorrow the fear and worry may be centered around some other event, but for today the election was what was important to Mr. Market. After all, they are important and do have an impact on everyones lives.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 9, 2022 11:39:33 GMT -8
Dave, We've seen a "sea of red" in the market for most of 2022...AAPL is down almost -25% for the year. The Dow was down to 28,725 at the end of September...today it's at 32,835...up over 4100 from then. I don't think the election has much to do with Mr. Market's disposition. If it did, Meta wouldn't be green and up +7.61%. I was making reference to my first post and link of the day. This morning the news feeds were full of uncertainty as they waited for the election results. Tomorrow the fear and worry may be centered around some other event, but for today the election was what was important to Mr. Market. After all, they are important and do have an impact on everyones lives. No matter the results of the election, there should be less uncertainty tomorrow than yesterday. There might be different worries, but in general less uncertainty should lower volatility and even raise prices a little. In theory... FWIW, a friend has much of her investments in a smaller tech company that she had worked at, which had went up huge amounts. But while they have good increasing revenue, on a GAAP basis they don't have a profit (or non-GAAP....I forget). And companies with no profit right now are scary! Peak to trough, AAPL dropped just a hair less than 30%. This other company dropped 75%! Apple is a whole different company than 25 years ago when I was first about to invest in it. And it had a similar beating in 2000, when it was much different. While I don't feel it's a good idea to feel that Apple can do no wrong, it is great to have a solidly profitable company where we can mostly sit back while Apple continues pushing forward. And while today doesn't look like the start of a meaningful recovery for the stock, we know that with Apple continuing with its plans even if there are some economic issues along the way, that the stock will recover at some point.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 9, 2022 12:10:49 GMT -8
Some big numbers shown on today's options pages. At first I thought 1000 on '25 puts at 270 were a lot. Then I saw the 12,600 volume on Jan '24 215 puts. finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/options?date=1705622400&p=AAPLSomeone is making some big bets. And I do consider them a bit more of a gamble, since even being out more than a year it's hard to know when a recovery will happen. It is tempting, sometimes, even if on a different level. But wow!
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Post by duckpins on Nov 9, 2022 12:44:12 GMT -8
Disney's covid low was 79. High 177. Today 87. Since Disney controls the congress and now is out streaming Netflix probably a buy. very high PE STILL. NO DIVIDEND. 159 BILLION market cap vs 114 for Netflix. Maybe Apple should buy Disney instead of Netflix.
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Post by duckpins on Nov 9, 2022 12:58:30 GMT -8
"At first I thought 1000 on '25 puts at 270 were a lot." Is that today's volume? or total volume?
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Post by duckpins on Nov 9, 2022 13:00:43 GMT -8
TSLA after a gap down continues. Now at the Biden election number. 178 vs 414 high.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 9, 2022 13:22:04 GMT -8
"At first I thought 1000 on '25 puts at 270 were a lot." Is that today's volume? or total volume? It's showing those as volume for the day, not open interest. 1k of options is for 100,000 shares. But 12.6k is just over 1 and a quarter million shares. At some point it's big money. It might be all offsetting, though I'm not seeing it offhand. Possibly/Probably a big fund with cash or margin, making a bet, with a little risk but not too much. I just thought it was an interestingly large figure.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 9, 2022 13:42:05 GMT -8
Disney's covid low was 79. High 177. Today 87. Since Disney controls the congress and now is out streaming Netflix probably a buy. very high PE STILL. NO DIVIDEND. 159 BILLION market cap vs 114 for Netflix. Maybe Apple should buy Disney instead of Netflix. This takes the cake as the most bizarre post of the day. Apple management is no-where close to dumb enough to buy Netflix. Thankfully. And Disney controls congress??!! Do you have cats? Seems like you have been in the catnip.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 9, 2022 14:07:18 GMT -8
Some big numbers shown on today's options pages. At first I thought 1000 on '25 puts at 270 were a lot. Then I saw the 12,600 volume on Jan '24 215 puts. finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/options?date=1705622400&p=AAPLSomeone is making some big bets. And I do consider them a bit more of a gamble, since even being out more than a year it's hard to know when a recovery will happen. It is tempting, sometimes, even if on a different level. But wow! Wow! 12,600 is about $100M. That's a lot. It must be part of some sort of combo trade. Also, keep in mind, options truly are zero-sum, so there's a seller of those options and a buyer of those options, and each one has a trade of some sort ... probably both combo trades. For example, the seller of that put might be someone contracted by Apple to buyback shares in 2024 (I highly doubt it, but it's been done before). It could also be a mistake. My broker shows no volume on the Jan '24 215 puts. NASDAQ options site also shows no volume - www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl/option-chain
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 9, 2022 14:17:07 GMT -8
the seller of that put might be someone contracted by Apple to buyback shares in 2024 (I highly doubt it, but it's been done before). Yep, I was wondering about that. But if it's not showing up in other feeds, it seems like it is a mistake.
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Post by duckpins on Nov 9, 2022 14:55:02 GMT -8
Read the constitution. Copyrights are specifically addressed to last a time period less than a lifetime. Every time Disney want to extend copyrights in happens. “To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries.”
100 years has nothing to do with authors or inventors. Implicit is that the copyright is for less than a person's natural life.
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Post by hledgard on Nov 9, 2022 20:18:46 GMT -8
I think the elephant in the room this election was abortion.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 9, 2022 20:49:24 GMT -8
I think the elephant in the room this election was abortion. Yep, an article talked about how there would probably have been even lower turnout, and more of a landslide, if not for abortion becoming a hot point in the past 6 months. It's crazy to me that with all of this interest in this political cycle, in our state only something like 45% of registered voters voted. And that's with being bombarded with ads, since we are one of the swing states, and it looks like it actually will swing. (Trying to keep things off of politics. I won't say who I voted for, or why) Ideally, especially as final numbers come in, there will be less unknowns and things should go up. Georgia throws that for a loop, needing a run-off since no one got at least 50% of the vote. But even with that, there are fewer unknowns than a couple days ago. Things will move on, though there will still be plenty of focus on the other wall of worry items. Not as much progress there. And that's the real elephant in the room, especially as it seems hard to see a way out from here. Is there any way for Putin to pull back? Can oil decline until then? What about anything grain related? How much of a pull-back in other areas is needed, to make up for high fuel costs if trying to cancel out inflation? How much lower must housing get, or higher must interest rates? For kicks, I got a trade-in quote on my truck, from the dealer and carmax. In my case, it was much lower than what I was hoping they would offer. But more cars are on the lots, and things are slowing. Change is happening. We'll see how things go. I imagine a good retail xmas run, even if not outstanding. It will be harder to tell for certain, since more are trying to spread out the season. Slower times may be coming, but just like with the Fed, the momentum might be hard to break.
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