Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Nov 10, 2022 2:35:23 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Nov 10, 2022 2:42:45 GMT -8
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Post by zebrum on Nov 10, 2022 4:09:36 GMT -8
Given the recent profit warning I was beginning to get worried how the market might react to the first non-record holiday quarter but turns out it happened before in Q1 2019:
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 10, 2022 5:56:56 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Nov 10, 2022 7:07:32 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 10, 2022 10:17:23 GMT -8
While I do like this, and it could even be one major reason to upgrade to a 14 instead of waiting for at least a 15, this really is for anyone who ever has a lack of cell service even when outside. ie if you are in a car accident, in a cell-coverage dead spot. The probability on that likely depends on how population dense your area is, and how many obstructions there are. But this is a peace of mind thing, like an Apple Watch when you don't plan on tripping or having a heart issue, or a Trust set up to support your kids or facilitate passing on your house, when you are healthy enough and young enough that the probability of an issue is low. It's one more thing to incentivize a purchase, even just as an equivalent of insurance. OTOH, it's also a move into a different cell service, that could possibly move into something bigger when looking years out.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Nov 10, 2022 10:21:31 GMT -8
Given the recent profit warning I was beginning to get worried how the market might react to the first non-record holiday quarter but turns out it happened before in Q1 2019: The world has changed a lot since then. The world is being faced with the fall of globalization and history doesn’t have anything available for comparison.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 10, 2022 10:29:33 GMT -8
Nice. And what a change from yesterday. The housing market is interesting, in how much influence it has over how people feel about the economy. There's only so many people looking at buying a house in any given year, but valuations and the press can really push the issue even for those not looking at buying or selling at that particular time. This story is aboutf things slowing down, from a home builder and seller perspective. finance.yahoo.com/news/red-flag-housing-home-builder-200216252.htmlThough it would be a pivot, a home builder could choose to write their own mortgages at a lower than market rate. Like a car dealer, they could make it up in other ways, such as selling at today's prices, instead of having to hold it longer and sell at next year's prices. And the flow of capital, while not to the full extent that they are used to, could still be beneficial, especially if still getting decent sized down payments. New mortgage rates have already had a huge change. It seems housing is going to take a huge hit, if not in pricing then at least in volume. Hopefully if construction starts taking a meaningful hit, someone will have the bright idea to help incentivize a pivot to the housing that many cities and most of the country really needs of higher density housing near work locations, instead of only the more profitable higher end stand-alone house.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Nov 10, 2022 10:34:38 GMT -8
While I do like this, and it could even be one major reason to upgrade to a 14 instead of waiting for at least a 15, this really is for anyone who ever has a lack of cell service even when outside. ie if you are in a car accident, in a cell-coverage dead spot. The probability on that likely depends on how population dense your area is, and how many obstructions there are. But this is a peace of mind thing, like an Apple Watch when you don't plan on tripping or having a heart issue, or a Trust set up to support your kids or facilitate passing on your house, when you are healthy enough and young enough that the probability of an issue is low. It's one more thing to incentivize a purchase, even just as an equivalent of insurance. OTOH, it's also a move into a different cell service, that could possibly move into something bigger when looking years out. This is a link from the one above. How to use local backups to keep iMessages out of iCloud backups and it goes through a long procedure about how to backup locally and nothing is mentioned about TimeMachine. Is TimeMachine still available on Mac anymore?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Nov 10, 2022 11:12:33 GMT -8
I see that what the Fed is doing with the interest rates is actually doing more harm then good. The inflation with the cost of new homes is the cost of materials because of supply and the shortage of labor. By raising the cost of money it makes it hard for companies to borrow money for expansion and increased production which applies in all areas. The demand for housing will start to be satisfied as the baby boomers start to die off and existing homes return to the market. The time of people waiting in line to bid up the price of a home as soon as the for sale sign goes up is likely over and most contractors don’t want to return to actually building a quality product at a reasonable price. I’ve experienced all of that and I don’t want to experience it again. I fear that what’s happening is that the large corporations are pushing out the local contractors by controlling the materials supply and cost, which will leave a complex bureaucracy that’s hard to deal with for prospective buyers. It’ll be a take it or leave it scenario for anyone wanting to buy a home. I heard many years ago that in Japan, because the price of housing was so high and the cost of money was also high, that the term of mortgages would span more than one generation. This could be another option.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Nov 10, 2022 11:21:13 GMT -8
Feels like old times! How long will it last? Here’s hoping for a big holiday quarter.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 10, 2022 11:23:05 GMT -8
Yes. My Mac uses it every hour more or less.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 10, 2022 11:35:26 GMT -8
Yes. My Mac uses it every hour more or less. On the latest OS? I have it on mine, but I'm still at OS 12.5.1. And it looks like I haven't run it for nearly a year, so I'm not the best example. Time to plug in the external drive. Maybe I unplugged it a year ago, after a full backup just before installing last year's new OS.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Nov 10, 2022 11:38:03 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 10, 2022 11:43:23 GMT -8
Feels like old times! How long will it last? Here’s hoping for a big holiday quarter. While it does, it's important to look back over the past year and see how many times we thought this. Each person is different, but I know I felt pretty good about AAPL returning to ATH's at least 2 of the times AAPL made it above 170. In retrospect, while realizing that we are in a major worldwide economic issue (not necessarily a severe one, but still a wide one that will take time), that should have been a time to take a little off the table if I wanted to play the Game a bit, wanted to work down margin a bit, or just felt that I wanted some cash on hand for the next 1-3 years. Today is nice. It could help bring things up a step or two, across most areas, especially on the psychological level and its effects on the market. Time will tell whether this is turning the corner, or just finding out about the corner, far off ahead.
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Post by duckpins on Nov 10, 2022 11:54:32 GMT -8
Ventura running Time Machine fine.
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Post by duckpins on Nov 10, 2022 11:57:38 GMT -8
TSLA jumped, worth a bet. This pivot has nasdaq leading. In the past contrarian fails the dow has led. Dow 3+%. Tech 6+%.
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Post by firestorm on Nov 10, 2022 12:45:37 GMT -8
Overall Whee!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 10, 2022 13:02:55 GMT -8
Up an even 12.00 points in a day! It's hard to not get excited by that, no matter how many shares you own. I hope this general direction lasts for a few days, and it would have been nice to see even more volume. OTOH, low volume shows that sellers held back, and buyers were motivated. Wheee! (looks like the market is open tomorrow, not off for Veteran's day. www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars )
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 10, 2022 13:51:30 GMT -8
Yes. My Mac uses it every hour more or less. On the latest OS? I have it on mine, but I'm still at OS 12.5.1. And it looks like I haven't run it for nearly a year, so I'm not the best example. Time to plug in the external drive. Maybe I unplugged it a year ago, after a full backup just before installing last year's new OS. Just checked ... OS 12.5 I've been running time machine since 2012. Switched external hard drives a few times since then, but it always runs. This is now on the new Mac (2021 M1 Pro) that I simply migrated over from the old Mac (2012 Core i7).
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 10, 2022 13:57:47 GMT -8
Feels like old times! How long will it last? Here’s hoping for a big holiday quarter.That would be nice. BUT they've already told us that they can't make iPhone 14 pros quick enough nowadays. Current delivery times are Dec 13 - Dec 19, so even if they catch up somewhat, they might not be able to accommodate much extra demand. And the people want the pros, regular models of iPhones are available today.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 10, 2022 13:58:55 GMT -8
I see that what the Fed is doing with the interest rates is actually doing more harm then good. The inflation with the cost of new homes is the cost of materials because of supply and the shortage of labor. By raising the cost of money it makes it hard for companies to borrow money for expansion and increased production which applies in all areas. The demand for housing will start to be satisfied as the baby boomers start to die off and existing homes return to the market. The time of people waiting in line to bid up the price of a home as soon as the for sale sign goes up is likely over and most contractors don’t want to return to actually building a quality product at a reasonable price. I’ve experienced all of that and I don’t want to experience it again. I fear that what’s happening is that the large corporations are pushing out the local contractors by controlling the materials supply and cost, which will leave a complex bureaucracy that’s hard to deal with for prospective buyers. It’ll be a take it or leave it scenario for anyone wanting to buy a home. I heard many years ago that in Japan, because the price of housing was so high and the cost of money was also high, that the term of mortgages would span more than one generation. This could be another option. I have been curious about the Federal Reserve ever since Betty Sue Huddleson talked me into cutting civics class in high school and I missed the lecture. It created a gap in my knowledge that I have not regretted up until now. After a review of Wikipedia and a few articles and a couple of rabbit hole excursions, I have come to an understanding that may or may not be close to the way things work. I wanted to describe it here in the hope that someone who was more attentive might correct me. The Federal Reserve is not a Government agency. It is a collection of banks operating under an agreement created in the early 20th century to prevent bank failure. It is governed by a board of governors who ARE appointed by the government, so it is not independent. The Fed loans money to a large collection of member banks that agree to abide by its regulations. These include limits on how much they must keep in reserve against deposits. For many years this reserve requirement was 15%, meaning that they had to have enough money in reserve to meet demands for 15% of their deposits ( If you thought like I did, that your money is in the bank, well it is if you ask for it before 85% of the other people do. Shhhhhh, don't tell anyone this). OK, so far so good. The goal of the fed is to control both inflation and unemployment. This is done by setting the interest rate the Fed charges to its member banks. The member banks are going to lend the money they borrow at a higher rate and profit off the difference. So if the Fed loans at 3% and the member bank borrows say a million, they have to pay back %1,030,000. But since the reserve requirement is (let's say 10% instead or 15% to make the math simpler)the member bank now can lend $10,000,000. If they lend it at 5% they make $500,000 and pay back $30,000 in interest. I think the spread is usually more like 3-5 points, not 2. So assuming the demand for money is great enough, when the Fed increases the interest rate, it is passed through and the banks are not hurt. Of course, everyone who is actually trying to use the money hits a wall. Projects are canceled, people are laid off, the demand for goods goes down, and inflation eases. That's the idea anyway. And it has some validity in areas where the demand is elastic, but when it comes to food, gasoline, medicine, and other essentials, the consumer just has to adapt or do without. Here's the problem with the above. You hear a lot in the financial press about the interest rate but you never hear anything about the reserve requirement. At the onset of the Pandemic, the reserve requirement was changed from 15% to 0%. That's right 0. Meaning that a bank can lend as much as it wants. No limit. Scary huh? All this is available on the Fed website. www.federalreserve.gov/There are some restrictions on how much a bank can loan to a single customer, but other than that, it's all Monopoly money. Maybe I should be thanking Betty Sue for 50 years of illusion.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Nov 10, 2022 14:13:21 GMT -8
Frightening isn’t it. Anyone know where the term “ run on the bank” came from and why?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,098
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Post by Dave on Nov 10, 2022 14:17:23 GMT -8
Wow, 12 bucks, and I thought that when it hit 8 bucks that it was great. This qualifies as amazing.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 10, 2022 14:18:03 GMT -8
Biggest Single Day $ Gain and 5th Biggest % Gain since 7:1 Split.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 10, 2022 14:38:30 GMT -8
There are some restrictions on how much a bank can loan to a single customer, but other than that, it's all Monopoly money. Maybe I should be thanking Betty Sue for 50 years of illusion. You should read a couple books I listed in the Book Reports area. aaplfinance.proboards.com/board/15/book-reportsThere's "The Deficit Myth" aaplfinance.proboards.com/thread/3197/deficit-mythAnd "Money - The true story of a made-up thing" aaplfinance.proboards.com/thread/3362/money-true-story-thingBoth are great if you've ever sat back and wondered about how it all works, and works together, while wondering what matters and what doesn't. Shells, beads, tea, gold, silver certificates, green cash. The loans to cash multiplier is great, as long as the loans all get paid or have good underlying collateral. Or your timeframe is long enough that even if a house goes down in value, you can hold out until it recovers. But then you get into the question of the lender of last resort, a topic covered in Manias, Panics, and Madness of Crowds (I believe).
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 10, 2022 14:43:08 GMT -8
Frightening isn’t it. Anyone ready where the term “ run on the bank” came from and why? Yep. It's talked about in many of the historic books, and then in the "Money" book, pointing out that it nearly happened in the money market accounts in ~2008, since traditional banks were protected by the Fed but these "new things" weren't. And so like these bitcoin options that are supposed to be tethered to the dollar, when that relationship falters and suddenly something everyone thought was worth a dollar suddenly isn't, and there isn't good support, big problems can happen. There's also a couple movies with it in it, I believe including "It's a wonderful life", on Disney+. (FWIW, even with a +12 day, not all things change. My last notebook entry for AAPL was on 10-21-22. That day, AAPL closed at 147.27....forty cents higher than today's close. It's nice to be up away from the floor again, but there's a long way to go)
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ono
Member
compensation
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Post by ono on Nov 10, 2022 17:39:36 GMT -8
China lifted a Covid-19 lockdown in the area hosting the biggest iPhone factory campus in the world (Zhengzhou), and operator Foxconn is rushing to get shipments back on track, media report, NOTE some media say a lockdown remains at Foxconn's location.
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ono
Member
compensation
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Post by ono on Nov 10, 2022 17:41:11 GMT -8
translation Zhengzhou Airport area unblocked, Honghai sprint iPhone shipment 4 Reporters Ye Wenyi, Xiao Junhui/Comprehensive Report Wednesday, November 9, 2022 3:44 pm Zhengzhou Airport Area, Henan Province, mainland China, was released from 12:00 on schedule yesterday (9th). Honghai (2317) said that Foxconn Zhengzhou factory in the area maintained closed-loop operation. With the gradual restoration of order in the airport area, local logistics also began to be relatively smooth.
The industry expects that with the gradual return of local logistics to normal, it will help Honghai sprint the shipment of new iPhone 14 series.
With the expected gradual smooth shipment of Zhengzhou factory, Honghai's stock price recovered yesterday, rising by 2.5 yuan and closing 102.5 yuan at the end. Foreign capital terminated four consecutive sales and turned to more than 3,000 pieces.
Henan Daily reported that while Foxconn's Zhengzhou Science and Technology Park production line continued to be produced, in Foxconn's timely logistics park, a large truck entered and exited in an orderly manner after completing the strict elimination, imported raw materials and accessories from abroad and domestic supporting materials and accessories were distributed to the production line 24 hours a day.
In addition, the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily reported that the Zhengzhou Foxconn iDPBG digital product business group recently issued a pre-recruitment announcement with a salary of 30 yuan per hour. The announcement shows that in order to encourage Foxconn veteran employees to return to the factory, those who have left their jobs and returned home from October 10 to November 5 will be given a one-time care subsidy of RMB 500 after re-employment. The specific check-in time will be notified after the port area is lifted of static management. Vehicles will be uniformly organized and point-to-peer closed-loop transportation.
Some labor agents told the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that the special class staff and vehicles responsible for Foxconn's return home in various counties and cities have returned. At present, the pre-recruitment work has begun, and a large number of people may return to the factory. It is expected that in the middle and late this month, Foxconn's employment needs of about 100,000 people is expected to be gradually met.
In this regard, Foxconn only responded, "Because Zhengzhou Foxconn is a key guarantee enterprise, it can still produce within the prescribed scope. The company does not comment on the recruitment situation in a single factory area."
Li Junqiang, the logistics manager of Foxconn Technology Group, said that now the logistics is not affected, and the whole supply chain system is relatively smooth. Nearly 200 trains of materials are transported to the park every day to ensure production needs. The difficulties will definitely be overcome, and the situation will gradually get better.
Supply chain sources said that Zhengzhou expects that the local epidemic will be significantly controlled after this week. At the same time, with the support of officials and customers, the goal of Honghai Zhengzhou Factory is to return to full capacity in late November.
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