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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 22, 2013 14:43:53 GMT -8
THIRD CONSECUTIVE GREEN WEEKLY CANDLE!!!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 22, 2013 15:17:54 GMT -8
For the first time in months I find myself breathing a little easier.
Samsung and Blackberry have both had their opportunities to pound on Apple, but neither has succeeded to any great degree. Google appears more vulnerable than ever with Samsung choosing not even to mention anything about it or its OS in the rollout of the (disappointing...at least now) S4, senior management shakeups, security problems and just Google being Google. If they can cancel products like Google Reader....hmmm?
As for Blackberry, a dozen new phones sold today at a midtown NYC At&T store....yikes. Well, let's wait for the one with the physical keyboard....that will do it.
Meanwhile Apple wins customer and industry quality surveys, keeps making money and one of these days will deal with that growing cash pile.
Better to be in the stock than out, in my opinion, right now...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 22, 2013 15:48:02 GMT -8
Copypasta from Intraday: The outlook looks much better but anything can happen. Same as it ever was. Some technicals types should now agree that the bottom is in until it isn't. In this camp. Appledoc is apparently not. Damn, Mace and me agreeing again. That can't be good. ;D But note my fairly careful choice of words - the bottom is in until it isn't. AAPL is doing well now with the bull flag in play but it can't stay stuck in second gear (or go retrograde) now, when quite a few micro signs are bullish. Ah, the endless challenge of measuring composure. Fun stuff.
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Post by macwire on Mar 22, 2013 16:46:38 GMT -8
Nice bar on the weekly. Maybe a tilted looking inverted h and s. I thought it resolved earlier but it looks like it is now.
I'd say be weary of light volume but we've grinded higher in past few weeks on meandering volume. Meh.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 22, 2013 16:49:44 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2013 17:09:03 GMT -8
Very bullish today. Impressive that we hurdled the $460 wall of calls, considering the volume could have allowed a sub-$460 finish. This is one of those rare weeks, absent a catalyst, that sellers refused to sell.
The question: Is there some news leaking about Apple's cash plans among the powers that be? Or, is it simply rationality returning to this stock?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 22, 2013 17:13:59 GMT -8
This latest booster shot to AAPL seems to actually be holding this time. Far as I can tell, cash stuff is more in the background (there's been multiple rumors in the past couple weeks or so).
So if I had to pick one, I'd say AAPL is trading more rationally at the moment. Not worrying about mid/late April...yet.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 22, 2013 17:34:20 GMT -8
In a market of bloated pigs, AAPL seems the obvious choice. But many here have thought as much for quite a while, so we'll just have to wait and see if what's obvious to us is obvious enough to everyone else yet. Ditto the meh re: volume. We've melted up and down on lame volume. If it's time to melt up, then melt up we shall.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 22, 2013 17:40:48 GMT -8
Volume on the SPY was 111M, for example. It's not an AAPL-specific "problem" today. And at 14M, volume is a bit low for AAPL, but not terribly so. See very late June 2011, for example.
For a melt up, it was pretty powerful. Because of the lower volume, the bears in theory had better odds to prevent AAPL from getting at 460, and steal possession from the bulls or throw them into disarray. But Da Bears were nowhere to be found, in a sense. And bears haven't been known to hibernate when they sense opportunity. If you ask me, the fight worth having is the Battle for 460+, not the Battle on the Way to 485.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 22, 2013 18:30:01 GMT -8
What effect do you suppose the new option minis might have? I was just perusing OI for JAN'15 and noticed the little guys have made quite a few sales.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 22, 2013 18:31:12 GMT -8
Volume on the SPY was 111M, for example. It's not an AAPL-specific "problem" today. And at 14M, volume is a bit low for AAPL, but not terribly so. See very late June 2011, for example. For a melt up, it was pretty powerful. Because of the lower volume, the bears in theory had better odds to prevent AAPL from getting at 460, and steal possession from the bulls or throw them into disarray. But Da Bears were nowhere to be found, in a sense. And bears haven't been known to hibernate when they sense opportunity. If you ask me, the fight worth having is the Battle for 460+, not the Battle on the Way to 485. Da Bears helped fuel the rally with their popped stops.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 22, 2013 20:01:23 GMT -8
You could say that on any up day.
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Post by qualitywte on Mar 23, 2013 5:39:12 GMT -8
Very bullish today. Impressive that we hurdled the $460 wall of calls, considering the volume could have allowed a sub-$460 finish. This is one of those rare weeks, absent a catalyst, that sellers refused to sell. The question: Is there some news leaking about Apple's cash plans among the powers that be? Or, is it simply rationality returning to this stock? Cash plan news could be a catalyst, but how will that reconcile with perceived weak earnings? Will it balance out or will one trump the other?
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 23, 2013 6:18:24 GMT -8
You could say that on any up day. YES! And may they continue trying and failing to call the TOP of this upwave -- fair's fair and all. ;D
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Post by joel90069 on Mar 23, 2013 8:04:45 GMT -8
Anyone else having trouble loading AFB pages the last couple of days? Seems okay on my IOS devices but a problem on my Mac Book Air.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Mar 23, 2013 8:22:29 GMT -8
Anyone else having trouble loading AFB pages the last couple of days? Seems okay on my IOS devices but a problem on my Mac Book Air. Same here
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Post by Lstream on Mar 23, 2013 8:43:53 GMT -8
Yes, very slow loading.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 23, 2013 8:59:25 GMT -8
Seems to be a broad Proboards thing -- I went to the support site and read that they're working on fixing "loading problems."
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 23, 2013 9:01:57 GMT -8
RE: volume... I made a chart showing declining volume "coming out of key bottoms" and "going into key tops." (Click once to zoom, and again a second time to get full size.) AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by joel90069 on Mar 23, 2013 9:03:37 GMT -8
Seems to be a broad Proboards thing -- I went to the support site and read that they're working on fixing "loading problems." Thanks. Probably EO sabotage.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 23, 2013 9:13:46 GMT -8
LOL Joel! You can be an honorary member of my Tinfoil Hat Club chapter!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2013 10:31:34 GMT -8
The question: Is there some news leaking about Apple's cash plans among the powers that be? Or, is it simply rationality returning to this stock? I think it is the proximity to earnings season, with the markets anticipating a strong season, followed by a strengthening economy. From my days as a real estate broker (late '70s to mid '80s) I have several friends in the business still, and they are telling me that sales, AND PRICES, are rising (Southern California, central Texas and northern Idaho). This corresponds with industry reports of increasing new construction and existing home sales. Also, Consumer Confidence is on the rise, as well as retail sales (led by automobiles). Housing and automobiles are the two major cornerstones of the economy. In my opinion (oft stated) the major impetus of Apple's decline was July, October and January earnings reports and guidance. I'm convinced that the market now has the history to more accurately extrapolate Apple's future performance from managements guidance, and, more importantly, feel that Apple will exceed expectations once again. As a historical pre-earnings run up, this "rally" is premature, but given the depths of AAPL's decline, waiting another week or two before getting onboard will be leaving a lot of money on the table. That's my opinion, and an opinion I feel is shared by the markets.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2013 10:35:11 GMT -8
So if I had to pick one, I'd say AAPL is trading more rationally at the moment. Not worrying about mid/late April...yet. Fundamentals are emerging as the AAPL mover. It didn't hurt that NONE of the supposed iPhone killers have proven worthy of the title, especially Samsung's over hyped Galaxy SIV.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2013 10:45:58 GMT -8
Volume on the SPY was 111M, for example. It's not an AAPL-specific "problem" today. And at 14M, volume is a bit low for AAPL, but not terribly so. See very late June 2011, for example. For a melt up, it was pretty powerful. Because of the lower volume, the bears in theory had better odds to prevent AAPL from getting at 460, and steal possession from the bulls or throw them into disarray. But Da Bears were nowhere to be found, in a sense. And bears haven't been known to hibernate when they sense opportunity. If you ask me, the fight worth having is the Battle for 460+, not the Battle on the Way to 485. P/C ratio 'bares' that analysis out. When looking at the rising P/C ratio, it is important to keep in mind that it is being driven by the expiration of Calls, not an increase in the number of Puts. AAPL's run these past several trading sessions have rewarded a ton of Call holders, which were then executed. Sellers have not been an issue for several days, at least not as a participant in daily trading.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Mar 23, 2013 10:56:48 GMT -8
The long game...
"According to J.D. Power and Associates, which released its rankings of the most popular smartphone vendors Thursday, Apple’s satisfaction ratings topped the list for the ninth-consecutive time. Its score of 855 on the 1,000-point scale even edged higher than its score of 849 in the firm’s previous consumer satisfaction survey in September of last year.
Contrary to what recent reports would suggest, Samsung did not fall closely behind Apple in the rankings. In second place came Nokia (NYSE:NOK), scoring a 795. The South-Korean smartphone manufacturer took the third position with 793, while Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Motorola and HTC (HTCKF.PK) were next with scores of 792 and 790, respectively. Pulling up the rear, was BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY), whose score of 732 fell far below the industry average of 796"
This is one reason I am undecided about a "cheap iPhone," and why I think that if Apple enters that market it will be with more of a limited function, but still relatively (compared to competitors) high quality device. Android phones are fairly fungible, with Samsung the current fave. But if they go to Tizen and Google continues on a path to put Moto to sleep, the Android future could be decidedly unexciting.
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Post by prazan on Mar 23, 2013 11:00:39 GMT -8
RE: volume... I made a chart showing declining volume "coming out of key bottoms" and "going into key tops." (Click once to zoom, and again a second time to get full size.) AAPL WEEKLY CHART: Interesting chart. Three low volume bars a charm?
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Post by joel90069 on Mar 23, 2013 11:14:14 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 23, 2013 11:25:10 GMT -8
Interesting chart. Three low volume bars a charm? Was wondering the same.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Mar 23, 2013 11:36:07 GMT -8
THIRD CONSECUTIVE GREEN WEEKLY CANDLE!!! Three week run: this reminded me that applemuncher made the correct gut call just after we had hit bottom, and just about everyone had capitulated, the night of March 4: Okay, for the past 200 points I have been patient. I have never called a bottom. Well, Mrs iPad (bless her heart) has stock and put spreads. Thurman ( !!!) is learning TA and has put spreads. People are calling for $400 or even $380. I hope for a Red Dog Reversal and people respond that we have $10 more to go. I say no. Bullshit. Today was capitulation and I am calling my first bottom. Apple is a great company and we have fallen too far, too fast. It's up from here. This is my line in the sand. I'm all in. Good luck to all. We're up just under 10% from that close.
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Post by applemuncher on Mar 23, 2013 12:03:43 GMT -8
THIRD CONSECUTIVE GREEN WEEKLY CANDLE!!! Three week run: this reminded me that applemuncher made the correct gut call just after we had hit bottom, and just about everyone had capitulated, the night of March 4: Okay, for the past 200 points I have been patient. I have never called a bottom. Well, Mrs iPad (bless her heart) has stock and put spreads. Thurman ( !!!) is learning TA and has put spreads. People are calling for $400 or even $380. I hope for a Red Dog Reversal and people respond that we have $10 more to go. I say no. Bullshit. Today was capitulation and I am calling my first bottom. Apple is a great company and we have fallen too far, too fast. It's up from here. This is my line in the sand. I'm all in. Good luck to all. We're up just under 10% from that close. Thanks Odd-Lot Richard. Even a blind hog can find an acorn sometimes. Happy with the stock price direction.
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