Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 29, 2022 2:19:34 GMT -8
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Post by zebrum on Nov 29, 2022 5:30:31 GMT -8
The recent dip from $150 to $144 has me worried, I hope we can hold above $140.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Nov 29, 2022 7:50:05 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 29, 2022 7:51:35 GMT -8
The recent dip from $150 to $144 has me worried, I hope we can hold above $140. But we're in the green now and hoping that we can get back to $150. Well, wrong again.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Nov 29, 2022 8:16:12 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 29, 2022 8:48:55 GMT -8
Apple Inc. (AAPL 148 ****): CFRA maintains our Buy opinion. We keep our 12-month target price of $165 and our EPS forecasts at $6.18 for FY 23 (Sep.) and $6.85 for FY 24. Increasing unrest/protests in China surrounding Covid policies could be exacerbating production issues for AAPL at the all important Foxconn assembly facility in Zhengzhou, according to news reports, where an overwhelming majority of AAPL’s two Pro devices are manufactured. We see as much as 5%-10% downside to our original iPhone estimates for the Dec-Q, reflecting the supply issues for its higher priced Pro devices coupled with lackluster demand for its more budget-friendly phones. We think current constraints are coming at the worst possible time (holiday selling season) and are the most severe since the early days of the pandemic. On a brighter note, we believe that the recent weakness in the dollar, along with falling component/logistic prices, bodes well for our longer-term outlook on the shares
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 29, 2022 10:06:04 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 29, 2022 10:09:11 GMT -8
As of today, Apple is now under performing the S&P over the last year.
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Post by zebrum on Nov 29, 2022 10:24:04 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 29, 2022 10:32:27 GMT -8
The biggest issue in that report:
“ Due to lengthy shipping delays and a recession, Kuo believes that most of the demand for iPhone 14 Pro models this quarter will simply "disappear" rather than be deferred, suggesting that many customers who would have purchased an iPhone 14 Pro right now will not return to order the device in January or later once supply improves.”
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Nov 29, 2022 11:04:39 GMT -8
While some of those sales will be lost by missing the holiday gift season, others will just be delayed, which will help the post-holidays quarter. Not saying this is good news, but the Pro models of this release have been leaders despite their high price. BWDIK, obviously Kuo feels differently.
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 29, 2022 12:06:29 GMT -8
Yes, Tim Cook gets paid a very large salary every year...and he's worth it. If you don't agree, watch what happens to the Apple share price when Tim decides to retire. If you think Tim Cook is being compensated partially for his ability to foresee the future, I just don't agree. He's had to make critical decisions based on information knowable at the time. This particular situation was not knowable or foreseeable years ago. Hindsight is always 20/20. That statement is not quite accurate, Cook was well aware, and in fact warned, about the dangers of doing business in China by a man hired by Apple to define that risk. That statement is not quite accurate...in the very same article you referenced, it says this: === By then, China was transitioning from making toys and tennis shoes to cars and computers. The government often required foreign companies to share their technology with state-owned firms in exchange for access to Chinese labor and consumers. To stop that, Mr. Guthrie and others pushed for the country’s inclusion in the World Trade Organization, which banned such quid pro quos. In 2001, the group admitted China.
=== So, not only did Doug Guthrie *not* warn about "the dangers of doing business in China”, but "Mr. Guthrie and others” pushed for China’s inclusion in the World Trade Organization. Why would Doug Guthrie push to have China admitted to the WTO if he didn’t think companies *should* do business in China? He actually took action to *help* companies do business in China. Plus, Doug Guthrie was hired in 2014... how could you possible think, "Cook was well aware, and in fact warned, about the dangers of doing business in China by a man hired by Apple to define that risk" when Apple started China production in 2001...13 years before Guthrie was hired. Cook had this information because Mr. Guthrie warned the companies doing business in China that Mr. Xi and the communist party were going to be a problem. These discussion were ongoing across the tech world and even on the old AFB boards. Apple started manufacturing products in China in 2001, long before Xi Jinping became president of China in 2013. It was 12 years later that Xi Jinping took over. Doug Guthrie was warning about Xi Jinping after Apple had been doing business in China for many years.Again, from the article you linked: Two decades later, in 2014, Apple hired him to help navigate perhaps its most important market. By then, he was worried about China’s new direction. He is the CEO and he is responsible and Jobs maybe should have seen this coming as well, but Jobs didn't have the insight provided by Mr. Guthrie that was provided to Cook. Maybe Jobs should have seen this coming...but Jobs didn’t have the insight provided by Doug Guthrie to Cook? How could Jobs have "seen this coming" or gain by "the insight provided" by Guthrie to Cook when Steve Jobs died on 10/05/11...three years before Apple hired Guthrie? And please don’t ignore the fact that Apple started having products built in China in 2001, 13 years *before* Guthrie was hired. I'm guessing that by the time Guthrie was warning Tim Cook about Xi, Tim was already aware of the problem. ================== I had not heard of Doug Guthrie before reading your post, but I'd recommend that you and any other AFB members interested in Apple's production in China, should read an interview with Guthrie titled, The China story behind Apple’s $3 trillion valuation with Doug Guthrie. The article you referenced was from June of 2021 and the interview is from January of 2022. Here are a couple of brief excerpts from the interview: === The other thing that I think is really important is, I do think that the second moment like Donald Trump being elected in 2016, and our country has been damaging to this relationship, the fact that Peter Navarro was the main negotiator for US-China trade. I mean, this is a guy who wrote a book called Death by China. I mean, just think about it. China also is rising in its sense of nationalism, not just in the government, but also among the populace. And so like the idea that you have somebody who wrote a book called Death by China coming over to negotiate trade, I just think it was damaging for everybody.=== Doug Guthrie: Well, it’s a great question, Chris, and I think that there are three levels to the complexity of that relationship. I just think China has tremendous leverage. The first level, now I’ve heard leaders from Congress and the former president talk about like, “Well, companies like Apple should just move to Vietnam or move to India, it’ll all be fine.” But we don’t have the leverage that we think we do for these three reasons. First, is the floating population. There are 350 million people that are what we call “float” around the country, but they’re actually moved by the government. This batch labor system is a tremendously powerful system in which the government moves people. The Chinese government moves people around the country to be at whatever factory needs them for seasonal production. This is amazing. It’s an amazing system.
And so, just having 350 million people, when people talk about like, “Well, we should just move our production to Vietnam.” Okay. There are 95 million people that live in Vietnam. The entire country couldn’t support what it is that is the production that’s happening in China. And there’s not a system for moving people around. The second thing is infrastructure that ties the system together. When people talk about, “Well, we should just move all our production to India.” India doesn’t have the infrastructure that links the states of India together the way China has developed.
China’s system of linking suppliers to final assembly factories, there’s nothing like it in the world. And then the third piece is what I like to refer to as industrial clusters. So many different cities in China have developed their entire system around focus on a very specific component or module. It’s just a system that has been developed in industrial development for the localities of China that I just think have made a dramatic difference. When you put those three things together, you can’t replicate this anywhere in the world. So it’s hard for me to imagine that a company like Apple or Tesla could leave China.=== Don't be put off by Guthrie's last comment. Regardless of how one feels about Apple in China, the interview provides a great overview of why *any* company will have difficulty replacing China as the country of their *main* source of production.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 29, 2022 13:32:19 GMT -8
The Apple of today, would not be possible without China manufacturing. Not with the volumes that have built the company. I am not pleased with the issues that we are now seeing within China, but that doesn’t change reality re supply-chain volume and flexibility.
People who are slamming Cook for being in China, are letting their ideology get in the way of clear thinking. Naïveté on full display. That kind of thinking would have Apple a minor player, due to shipping in minor league volumes compared the likes of Samsung. Not to mention the loss of sales volumes by not playing in that market.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 29, 2022 14:08:11 GMT -8
I sure hope so! Delivery date for iPhone14 pro has moved to 1 day later ... now Dec 29.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 29, 2022 17:26:43 GMT -8
Will 2022 be like 1984?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 30, 2022 3:13:59 GMT -8
The Apple of today, would not be possible without China manufacturing. Not with the volumes that have built the company. I am not pleased with the issues that we are now seeing within China, but that doesn’t change reality re supply-chain volume and flexibility. People who are slamming Cook for being in China, are letting their ideology get in the way of clear thinking. Naïveté on full display. That kind of thinking would have Apple a minor player, due to shipping in minor league volumes compared the likes of Samsung. Not to mention the loss of sales volumes by not playing in that market. What you are implying is that China is the only country in the world that can offer Apple what is needed. I understand that the Chinese leadership dangled the carrot of a well organized and complete manufacturing complex, transportation and access to a huge market that is otherwise restricted. And I could understand placing just enough production there to satisfy that market and nothing more. But, everyone keeps overlooking the country just south of the US border, Mexico. We already have a free trade agreement that was established many years ago. And a transportation infrastructure and a large workforce. Apple could have had, and one day may still have, a huge influence on Mexico’s development in the world. But instead Tim Cook kept becoming more and more dependent on China for the production of its products. China was the easy way and now the company, and those invested are having to pay the price. I fear that he may be doing the same thing with India, but that’s another worry. So as I’ve already said, Tim Cook is not the victim here, Apple the company and its investors are. As the head of a major corporation, ignorance is not an excuse. .
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Post by Lstream on Nov 30, 2022 3:51:47 GMT -8
The Apple of today, would not be possible without China manufacturing. Not with the volumes that have built the company. I am not pleased with the issues that we are now seeing within China, but that doesn’t change reality re supply-chain volume and flexibility. People who are slamming Cook for being in China, are letting their ideology get in the way of clear thinking. Naïveté on full display. That kind of thinking would have Apple a minor player, due to shipping in minor league volumes compared the likes of Samsung. Not to mention the loss of sales volumes by not playing in that market. What you are implying is that China is the only country in the world that can offer Apple what is needed. I understand that the Chinese leadership dangled the carrot of a well organized and complete manufacturing complex, transportation and access to a huge market that is otherwise restricted. And I could understand placing just enough production there to satisfy that market and nothing more. But, everyone keeps overlooking the country just south of the US border, Mexico. We already have a free trade agreement that was established many years ago. And a transportation infrastructure and a large workforce. Apple could have had, and one day may still have, a huge influence on Mexico’s development in the world. But instead Tim Cook kept becoming more and more dependent on China for the production of its products. China was the easy way and now the company, and those invested are having to pay the price. I fear that he may be doing the same thing with India, but that’s another worry. So as I’ve already said, Tim Cook is not the victim here, Apple the company and its investors are. As the head of a major corporation, ignorance is not an excuse. . I am not implying that China is the only country that could deliver what Apple needed. I am categorically stating it. And Mexico is not even in same league. And they never could be, no matter what Apple did. Apple is not alone in being in China. There are good reasons for it. People on this anti Cook bandwagon re this issue, simply do not understand the challenges of scale going on here. I previously worked for a company that built electronics devices in both Mexico and China. Mexico is fine at certain scale, and where cost is not so sensitive. But there is no way they could deliver at the scale and cost China can. This is before even discussing the supply chain, that is a huge deal before final assembly. I realize that you and others are never going to be convinced that China is and was the only solution. Paint Cook in a negative light if you want on this issue, but do you actually think he doesn’t get it? Or he is THAT ignorant. That is laughable.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 30, 2022 9:35:12 GMT -8
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Nov 30, 2022 23:54:33 GMT -8
That statement is not quite accurate, Cook was well aware, and in fact warned, about the dangers of doing business in China by a man hired by Apple to define that risk. That statement is not quite accurate...in the very same article you referenced, it says this: === By then, China was transitioning from making toys and tennis shoes to cars and computers. The government often required foreign companies to share their technology with state-owned firms in exchange for access to Chinese labor and consumers. To stop that, Mr. Guthrie and others pushed for the country’s inclusion in the World Trade Organization, which banned such quid pro quos. In 2001, the group admitted China.
=== So, not only did Doug Guthrie *not* warn about "the dangers of doing business in China”, but "Mr. Guthrie and others” pushed for China’s inclusion in the World Trade Organization. Why would Doug Guthrie push to have China admitted to the WTO if he didn’t think companies *should* do business in China? He actually took action to *help* companies do business in China. Plus, Doug Guthrie was hired in 2014... how could you possible think, "Cook was well aware, and in fact warned, about the dangers of doing business in China by a man hired by Apple to define that risk" when Apple started China production in 2001...13 years before Guthrie was hired. Cook had this information because Mr. Guthrie warned the companies doing business in China that Mr. Xi and the communist party were going to be a problem. These discussion were ongoing across the tech world and even on the old AFB boards. Apple started manufacturing products in China in 2001, long before Xi Jinping became president of China in 2013. It was 12 years later that Xi Jinping took over. Doug Guthrie was warning about Xi Jinping after Apple had been doing business in China for many years.I don't know where to start. Your comments make no sense to me. You are refuting points I did not make with a timeline I never questioned. You are either reading without comprehending what I am saying, or writing without knowing what you are saying. Guthrie's warning came after Jobs died, Cook had that information, and I was only making one point which I will explain again in the simplest form I can muster. The "information" was knowable at the time, and Cook knew it, it was a mistake to continue to put all his marbles in China. You said: I said: My only point was that yes Cook had some knowledge of what was going to happen in China (and is happening as we speak) provided to him after Xi came into power, by Guthrie. He chose to ignore that warning without trying to protect the Company if these events came to pass. Your statement is quite wrong to "some degree" (maybe a lot or maybe a little). Cook shares the responsibility for the cost to Apple if this situation escalates and so do those who excuse Cook's actions and who are enhancing the threat to the rest of the world from all of the plagues that come with communism. Cook knew Xi was a threat. I don't even know how to respond to the ridiculous notion that Apple can't survive without China, other than to say that it could come to pass that they may survive better without them than with them. If you really believe that why would you not sell your shares before China invades Taiwan. Here is an article that highlights how some companies are waking up to these facts. I quoted the last 4 paragraphs. The story also brings up Dell's transition out of China. www.forbes.com/sites/timbajarin/2022/08/30/shifting-tech-manufacturing-out-of-chinaa-critical-imperative-for-tech/?sh=24916ac61052
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