Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 31, 2013 14:43:27 GMT -8
Really? Remember, iPad 3 was kind of a stopgap and it showed in the sales curve (as nice a product as it is). iPad mini, which I think will soon be the 2:1 sales favorite over iPad if it isn't already, had no opportunity to contribute to sales until late fiscal Q1, in severe supply constraint to boot.
Also, iPad regular needs a redesign. iPad 4's surprise refresh is "proof" of this IMHO.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2013 14:47:07 GMT -8
Really? Remember, iPad 3 was kind of a stopgap and it showed in the sales curve (as nice a product as it is). iPad mini, which I think will soon be the 2:1 sales favorite over iPad if it isn't already, had no opportunity to contribute to sales until late fiscal Q1, in severe supply constraint to boot. Also, iPad regular needs a redesign. iPad 4's surprise refresh is "proof" of this IMHO. Since Apple doesn't break out iPad vs. iPad mini, we can only rely on iPad sales figures, which have seen slow growth since FQ3 2012, in the percentages I mentioned. Not sure how you're going to corroborate your regular iPad growth if Apple doesn't tell us.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 31, 2013 14:48:17 GMT -8
Btw, are we using the same terms here? I'm talking units. I've baked in some decently conservative ASPs into my calculations and I was actually reasonably close for fiscal Q1 (actual ASP $467, projected $433).
EDIT: Yeah, I think you're focused on revs and I'm focused on units. I'm a simple person so I just calculate a blended ASP for all of iPad. Since I think I'm onto the general trend, I just best-guess the ASP, keep it conservative, and then move onto units, which I also try to keep conservative as a check against any exuberance bias.
EDIT 2: Actually kind of an overall reply to Mercel + others, Apple has helpfully confused matters, as I think it should have done much sooner, by placing increasing emphasis on _sellthrough_ (which I understand to be a "true" measure of growth, because all soldthrough units are sales in the commonly understood sense, IIRC). _Sell-in_ dictates the actual quarterly results, and given the supply chain, points of sale, channel fill, etc., "true" trends can get distorted.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 31, 2013 14:56:48 GMT -8
Btw, are we using the same terms here? I'm talking units. I've baked in some decently conservative ASPs into my calculations and I was actually reasonably close for fiscal Q1 (actual ASP $467, projected $433). EDIT: Yeah, I think you're focused on revs and I'm focused on units. I'm a simple person so I just calculate a blended ASP for all of iPad. Since I think I'm onto the general trend, I just best-guess the ASP, keep it conservative, and then move onto units, which I also try to keep conservative as a check against any exuberance bias. EDIT 2: Actually kind of an overall reply to Mercel + others, Apple has helpfully confused matters, as I think it should have done much sooner, by placing increasing emphasis on _sellthrough_ (which I understand to be a "true" measure of growth, because all soldthrough units are sales in the commonly understood sense, IIRC). _Sell-in_ dictates the actual quarterly results, and given the supply chain, points of sale, channel fill, etc., "true" trends can get distorted. I agree Mav. Trying to gets Apple to Apple ( ;D) comparisons gets tougher each quarter and each year. Regions differ now, components appear in new places and no EPS guidance, per se. We will need some run rates under the "new" methodologies...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2013 14:58:42 GMT -8
Btw, are we using the same terms here? I'm talking units. I've baked in some decently conservative ASPs into my calculations and I was actually reasonably close for fiscal Q1 (actual ASP $467, projected $433). EDIT: Yeah, I think you're focused on revs and I'm focused on units. I'm a simple person so I just calculate a blended ASP for all of iPad. Since I think I'm onto the general trend, I just best-guess the ASP, keep it conservative, and then move onto units, which I also try to keep conservative as a check against any exuberance bias. Yep, I'm using sales #s, as I indicated. The interesting question for me is what happened to ASPs sequentially. I think they'll be flat in the March quarter. The price sensitivity of gifts and the mini's launch quarter favored this model during the holiday quarter. ASP might even go up, as the 128GB iPad launch might float the ASP in FQ2 2013, along with enterprise purchases outside the holiday quarter. The counterargument is Apple scaled production of the mini to meet demand.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 31, 2013 15:00:46 GMT -8
I wonder how the 128 gig iPad sold? We know it was a Surface Killer.....
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2013 15:02:49 GMT -8
I wonder how the 128 gig iPad sold? We know it was a Surface Killer..... I bought one. ;D The Surface killed itself. Self-immolation is a particular talent of Microsoft.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 31, 2013 15:04:00 GMT -8
This'll be tougher for me then , because I prefer to treat ASP separately and solve for units. And maybe it's just me, but I think unit growth is far more important to Apple at this stage in the game - after all, it's the end-all be-all metric that most every analytics firm predicting "Apple's niche player by 2015 or whatever" uses. Of course iPad revenue growth is important, but Apple is lowering ASP by design. So I'm not concerned one bit. Next fiscal year will bring more "rational" compares.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 31, 2013 15:08:00 GMT -8
I think the megatrend is for iPad to be the MacBook Pro of the iPad family, while iPad mini is more like the MacBook Air family.
When iPad mini launched, I almost immediately wondered if I'd ever buy a regular iPad ever again.
And I think Apple is more than fine with that state of affairs. Once again, the minis will be the most popular, but no way in heck will Apple let iPad regular go the way of the iPod classic. I'll "shrug off" iPad-level YOY rev compares until next year. I have iPad line YOY revs growth at 30% and that's more than enough for me considering the transition.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 31, 2013 15:09:50 GMT -8
I wonder how the 128 gig iPad sold? We know it was a Surface Killer..... I bought one. ;D The Surface killed itself. Self-immolation is a particular talent of Microsoft. Leave Ballmer alone ( insert video of freak demanding Brittany be left alone). Mercel, Your prejudice against big bald guys must stop. I would suggest sensitivity training but I suspect it wouldn't take.....
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2013 15:30:47 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 31, 2013 15:32:05 GMT -8
Way to ruin this thread.
Maybe even Easter.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2013 15:33:40 GMT -8
Way to ruin this thread. Maybe even Easter. Blame it on Red. He started it...
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Mar 31, 2013 16:06:57 GMT -8
Meanwhile the iPads are a runaway success in enterprise.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Mar 31, 2013 17:19:58 GMT -8
Well I am back from my skiing vacation. Since we went down while out of town, we should not go up.
With futures down I now look forward to aapl going into opposite direction. So I root for the market to go down from now on.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2013 17:30:09 GMT -8
Well I am back from my skiing vacation. Since we went down while out of town, we should not go up. With futures down I now look forward to aapl going into opposite direction. So I root for the market to go down from now on. Your TA is a little spongy there. The futures are relatively flat and highly subject to change. I'm not trading AAPL at the moment, so no worries as we approach FQ2 2013 earnings and cash talk.
|
|
|
Post by prazan on Mar 31, 2013 17:37:50 GMT -8
I was wondering what the board thinks about the current anti-Apple campaign by the Chinese government. While we spend all this time worrying about "dividend vs. buyback" or "Can Apple innovate" or all these other contrived issues, it seems to me that here is a huge potential problem that is not really being discussed. Given the importance of the Chinese market and the power that the government has, isn't anyone concerned that the current anti-Apple publicity campaign will escalate into other limitations? I certainly don't know anything about the issue and would love to hear thoughts from those who do. This worries me more than just about any other black swan potentially winging just beyond the horizon line. I don't think the Chinese government is interested in blackballing Apple, but I haven't forgotten that China remains a socialist state, even though it has embraced elements of capitalism. They can fix the rules of the game however they see fit. I once thought a China Mobile deal was fait accompli, a veritable done deal. I bought the argument that the company needed Apple to stay competitive. I'm now coming to the realization that profit at a state owned company like China Mobile runs a distant second to politics. If business in China is controlled by politics, and the state sees the suppression of Apple as in its interests, then they'll jigger the system to suppress it. This may be no more than a tit-for-tat response to the U.S. government's exclusion order against an HTC phone based on a legitimate ITC ruling, though frankly that makes little sense to me, given that it did little damage and was resolved quickly enough in HTC's favor. It may be an exercise in arm twisting, to show other U.S. companies and the U.S. government how vulnerable U.S. interests are in the event of continued pressure over Chinese cyber-espionage. It might be directed solely at Apple to knock them down a few notches. I don't know. That I don't know, and that no one outside the Chinese government sseems to understand the end game, worries me.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 31, 2013 17:47:00 GMT -8
I'm no expert in geopolitics, but, HTC is a Taiwanese company. So...probably not.
The ZTE/Huawei situation, maybe. In any case, China Mobile doesn't have much of an LTE network...at all. And millions of "China Mobile" iPhones are plodding along on EDGE anyway. I'd be more worried if Apple was suppressed through China Telecom or Unicom (which really wouldn't make any sense) or Foxconn somehow.
The people of China have spoken, and the people love Apple stuff. Short of confiscation, I don't see any immediate problems with state governments directly affecting Apple's bottom line.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2013 17:58:30 GMT -8
I'm no expert in geopolitics, but, HTC is a Taiwanese company. So...probably not. The ZTE/Huawei situation, maybe. In any case, China Mobile doesn't have much of an LTE network...at all. And millions of "China Mobile" iPhones are plodding along on EDGE anyway. I'd be more worried if Apple was suppressed through China Telecom or Unicom (which really wouldn't make any sense) or Foxconn somehow. The people of China have spoken, and the people love Apple stuff. Short of confiscation, I don't see any immediate problems with state governments directly affecting Apple's bottom line. +1. I don't see the recent efforts by China's state-owned media having much impact on the demand for Apple products in China.
|
|
|
Post by prazan on Mar 31, 2013 18:13:26 GMT -8
I'm no expert in geopolitics, but, HTC is a Taiwanese company. So...probably not. The ZTE/Huawei situation, maybe. In any case, China Mobile doesn't have much of an LTE network...at all. And millions of "China Mobile" iPhones are plodding along on EDGE anyway. I'd be more worried if Apple was suppressed through China Telecom or Unicom (which really wouldn't make any sense) or Foxconn somehow. The people of China have spoken, and the people love Apple stuff. Short of confiscation, I don't see any immediate problems with state governments directly affecting Apple's bottom line. Yes, ZTE/Huawei, not HTC. My typo. I don't think the issue is whether or not Apple products remain popular in China. Instead, the issue is whether or not the Chinese government will take steps to brake Apple's growth. The state-run propaganda campaign, however inept, seems aimed at knocking Apple down a notch. Delaying a deal with China Mobile could be another step in the campaign. I'm not saying it will be, just that it's up to the government to decide, not the Chinese consumers. Subscriber defections to the other two major characters will pressure the government, but I suspect they'll act in a way that they think benefits the state. If China offers a level playing field, then the Chinese consumers will opt for Apple. But I'm not confident that the state won't tilt the field against Apple to suit their interests.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 31, 2013 18:57:11 GMT -8
Point well taken. The Chinese government certainly can try. It's a cost of doing business that we all should keep in mind. OTOH, the early returns don't look promising for the anti-Apple state-run media, like Mercel said.
Speaking of China, looks like PMI is 50.9, which is under analyst forecasts. I wonder if Apple will eventually get to a point where it can actually influence PMI a tenth or so with the help of Foxconn. ;D
|
|
|
Post by prazan on Mar 31, 2013 19:05:31 GMT -8
Point well taken. The Chinese government certainly can try. It's a cost of doing business that we all should keep in mind. OTOH, the early returns don't look promising for the anti-Apple state-run media, like Mercel said. Yes, it's an inept campaign so far. If the propaganda target is the Chinese consumer, then so far it hasn't been effective. But my years abroad taught me not to blindly believe people in other cultures think like I do. From the perspective of Western capitalism, it makes sense for CM to make a deal with Apple, for reasons many have already given. But I'm not sure that's the perspective of the state, and I don't know their agenda in this.
|
|
|
Post by mstefa on Mar 31, 2013 19:06:51 GMT -8
In china, just like in russia before and other communist regimes, nobody beleives what government says. If anything that campaign wuld make apple more popular. Thats the only resistance these people are allowed.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Mar 31, 2013 19:10:13 GMT -8
The way I see it, if China Mobile is gonna be late to the iPhone party, it might as well have a LTE network up and running first. That alone will be a limiting factor for all LTE-class smartphones IMHO, and China Mobile's LTE is in testing at best AFAIK.
IMHO, today's consumers want a data feed that can keep up with their processor. 3G is a fallback and actually does degrade the smartphone experience if it's too slow. Getting a higher-end smartphone for a lower-end network probably isn't what most consumers in China will do.
China Telecom/Unicom have an "excuse" because only iPhone 5 was LTE-ready and they've been iPhone carriers for a while now.
Apple _will_ have an iPhone on China Mobile sometime, and unless Chinese consumers somehow get to enjoy LTE en masse with everyone-but-Apple's smartphone products for many months (which would be a big problem), I think it'll do just fine when iPhone whenever finally launches on China Mobile. After all, Apple's got a heck of a foothold already. I wonder just how many iPhones are on China Mobile's network now.
Meanwhile, we'll see if China Mobile can keep its two other telecom competitors at bay.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Mar 31, 2013 19:14:07 GMT -8
In china, just like in russia before and other communist regimes, nobody beleives what government says. If anything that campaign wuld make apple more popular. Thats the only resistance these people are allowed. Bingo I grew up in a communist country. We adored American brands regardless of what the gov. said. As a kid I aspired to wear Levis Strauss, chew Wrigley's Gum, Drink Coca Cola, and watch US movies and listen to Western Rock and Roll music. I loved US candy and comic books.
|
|
|
Post by nkmho on Mar 31, 2013 19:21:21 GMT -8
Is the quote box broke for anyone else? Yeah, I gotta change the handling of extended hours when CNBC doesn't return extended hours data. This problem should correct itself tomorrow, while I come up with a real fix in the meantime. Update: Okay, fixed and back in action again.
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Mar 31, 2013 19:24:31 GMT -8
Leave Ballmer alone ( insert video of freak demanding Brittany be left alone). Mercel, Your prejudice against big bald guys must stop. I would suggest sensitivity training but I suspect it wouldn't take..... Red, it's bald guys, look how he treats Max :-) I've given up on estimates. iPad sales are slowing considerably (Mini doing very well) is my guess but who knows. Just waiting for sentiment to turn. The seeking Alpha articles have slowed to a trickle and most of those are what to do with cash articles - a good sign IMO. right now, no one is expecting much from Apple. Still not sure why PO would issue a range and then beat that range (as some are guessing). Why give a range? I guess the share count is still an issue but I'm not expecting much there. Nice post Red as always.
|
|
|
Post by prazan on Mar 31, 2013 19:36:59 GMT -8
In china, just like in russia before and other communist regimes, nobody beleives what government says. If anything that campaign wuld make apple more popular. Thats the only resistance these people are allowed. Bingo I grew up in a communist country. We adored American brands regardless of what the gov. said. As a kid I aspired to wear Levis Strauss, chew Wrigley's Gum, Drink Coca Cola, and watch US movies and listen to Western Rock and Roll music. I loved US candy and comic books. I think I remember the country, if I can trust my Sponge-ography. American brands and people were enormously popular throughout Central Europe, just as Apple is now in China. The state limited what folks in those countries could buy/watch/hear, and that's the issue as I see it in China. How far is the state willing to go? If it comes down to the product itself, then the Chinese will opt for Apple in increasing numbers, and the state risks a backlash by those who will side with Apple in any dispute.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Mar 31, 2013 20:38:21 GMT -8
Bingo I grew up in a communist country. We adored American brands regardless of what the gov. said. As a kid I aspired to wear Levis Strauss, chew Wrigley's Gum, Drink Coca Cola, and watch US movies and listen to Western Rock and Roll music. I loved US candy and comic books. I think I remember the country, if I can trust my Sponge-ography. American brands and people were enormously popular throughout Central Europe, just as Apple is now in China. The state limited what folks in those countries could buy/watch/hear, and that's the issue as I see it in China. How far is the state willing to go? If it comes down to the product itself, then the Chinese will opt for Apple in increasing numbers, and the state risks a backlash by those who will side with Apple in any dispute. I agree. In fact Apple has become so popular in China, the government won't be able to stop the storm that the iPhone created. By the way Horace Dediu makes our countrymen proud.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2013 21:15:54 GMT -8
|
|