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Post by Lstream on Apr 12, 2013 10:30:32 GMT -8
Thanks, LStream! I always appreciate your posts to the board, particularly on matters of technology. Thanks. Appreciate your stuff too. There are many implications to fingerprint authentication once Apple makes it mainstream. Our company develops and sells an Enterprise-class collaboration product into Fortune 500 class companies. The solution incorporated an iOS application for the first time last fall. One of the ongoing issues with Mobile devices on corporate networks is Authentication. The more security conscious require two-factor authentication which is hugely inconvenient. I look forward to the day we can offer two-factor authentication via fingerprint, as well as the ability to lock access to sensitive files as shown in that video. Hopefully we see Apple's plans for AuthenTec real soon. |
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Post by pauls on Apr 12, 2013 10:51:02 GMT -8
Lstream Do me a favor go back to Braeburn. They need your smart ass commentary there and you can hang out with those who have no idea how Apple operates. No idea how Apple operates? That kind of divisive hyperbole applies to no one here. We are all multi-year watchers of the company. Just because you talked to a single law man about HIS current fingerprint tech means precious little. I know you take a lot of heat for your unflagging optimism, even in the face of margin calls and other investments getting hammered. I appreciate your input but trying to push other thoughtful posters away for their different opinions and/or lower levels of confidence is not a good thing for discussion. This is a great board. As is Braeburn. A little bearish caution here and there is healthy. The future is not guaranteed, |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 10:51:48 GMT -8
For those who are unfamiliar with this cycle of rise and fall of AAPL predictably within the week, starting with the Friday before, Travis has a nice chart on price behavior.  related to this, i just looked at every single Friday-->Monday in 2013 and found something pretty surprising. Every Single Monday in 2013, the low of the day on Monday is below the close on the previous Friday. 14 weekends so far that this has happened. Conclusions from this: When I am sitting here at the end of the week thinking the run will start next week, I should wait until Monday for my opportunity to buy below the Friday close. Especially if that buy is an option, because some premium will be lost due to the time decay, resulting in a cheaper purchase price. Good stuff. Thanks. I don't buy the short term stuff so not worried about time decay of 2 days, but the lower low on Monday is noteworthy. |
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Post by prazan on Apr 12, 2013 11:03:01 GMT -8
Thanks, LStream! I always appreciate your posts to the board, particularly on matters of technology. Thanks. Appreciate your stuff too. There are many implications to fingerprint authentication once Apple makes it mainstream. Our company develops and sells an Enterprise-class collaboration product into Fortune 500 class companies. The solution incorporated an iOS application for the first time last fall. One of the ongoing issues with Mobile devices on corporate networks is Authentication. The more security conscious require two-factor authentication which is hugely inconvenient. I look forward to the day we can offer two-factor authentication via fingerprint, as well as the ability to lock access to sensitive files as shown in that video. Hopefully we see Apple's plans for AuthenTec real soon. It will be a work in progress on release, I suspect, like Siri rather than maps. It only needs to do one important thing well and reliably to be a breakout feature. Mobile payments may be the ultimate destination, but the video shows some of the worthwhile stops along the way. I'd be happy with a simple fingerprint to unlock feature at the start. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 11:14:08 GMT -8
Could we end up with under 9 million shares traded?
We are at the bottom. No one wants to sell or buy.
I went ahead and bought the one 550Jan call at 10.40.
I am confident we will start a slow rebound towards 440 next week and beyond.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 12, 2013 11:19:03 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Apr 12, 2013 11:37:43 GMT -8
Lstream Do me a favor go back to Braeburn. They need your smart ass commentary there and you can hang out with those who have no idea how Apple operates. Ha. You're the one who just said it isn't possible to have a fingerprint scanner in the 5S because you saw some oversized old piece of technology. |
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Post by prazan on Apr 12, 2013 11:40:26 GMT -8
Terrific presentation. Slides 6, 8, and 10 are very telling. |
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Post by Lstream on Apr 12, 2013 11:59:21 GMT -8
Lstream Do me a favor go back to Braeburn. They need your smart ass commentary there and you can hang out with those who have no idea how Apple operates. Ha. You're the one who just said it isn't possible to have a fingerprint scanner in the 5S because you saw some oversized old piece of technology. The irony is truly delicious isn't it? Odd thing is that my perspective on fingerprint scanning is actually bullish. All of its benefits are much closer than 2014 if Apple wants them to be. I have a 4S and have not felt compelled to purchase the 5. But a 5S with even the screen unlock feature activated by my fingerprint, has a lot of appeal, and could very likely convince me to upgrade. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 12, 2013 12:13:31 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 12, 2013 12:20:29 GMT -8
Lstream Do me a favor go back to Braeburn. They need your smart ass commentary there and you can hang out with those who have no idea how Apple operates. Sponge, Lstream did nothing objectionable here. I, too, have seen demos of identification technologies small enough to be incorporated into mobile devices. It comes down to the "how" and the "what for", not the "if". It's about building the case for right now. (hey, remember when you used to urge all of us to come over to Braeburn?  ) Exploit the Need. Like LStream, I've got a 4s. If they put in this technology for the unlock feature, then integrate it with Passbook...I'll buy a new phone, boom. |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 12, 2013 12:22:33 GMT -8
430 pin. pain was pretty spot on this week. Could we end up with under 9 million shares traded? We are at the bottom. No one wants to sell or buy. I went ahead and bought the one 550Jan call at 10.40. I am confident we will start a slow rebound towards 440 next week and beyond. i want to agree, but the spring is coiling up and it could let go in the down direction too. a kit if signs were pointing to a beat last quarter from other companies iphone #s, and then we dropped 10%. all it takes is a mediocre earnings report in two weeks and we will go lower. i like the call at 10.40 (personally ive been watching it too as an indicator of momentum etc). For example, it was $25+ when we got to 485. then back down to 10ish, then up to $20 or so when we hit 470 recently, and then back to 10ish again here. I know you have other plans, but if it goes up again pre-earnings, i 100% would close it off with a short call at 600 or something to create a spread. going into earnings w/o a spread scares me these days. even a decent report will hurt the call by itself due to the crushing of the implied volatility the next day. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 12:29:23 GMT -8
430 pin. pain was pretty spot on this week. Could we end up with under 9 million shares traded? We are at the bottom. No one wants to sell or buy. I went ahead and bought the one 550Jan call at 10.40. I am confident we will start a slow rebound towards 440 next week and beyond. i want to agree, but the spring is coiling up and it could let go in the down direction too. a kit if signs were pointing to a beat last quarter from other companies iphone #s, and then we dropped 10%. all it takes is a mediocre earnings report in two weeks and we will go lower. i like the call at 10.40 (personally ive been watching it too as an indicator of momentum etc). For example, it was $25+ when we got to 485. then back down to 10ish, then up to $20 or so when we hit 470 recently, and then back to 10ish again here. I know you have other plans, but if it goes up again pre-earnings, i 100% would close it off with a short call at 600 or something to create a spread. going into earnings w/o a spread scares me these days. even a decent report will hurt the call by itself due to the crushing of the implied volatility the next day. Except AAPL SHOULD HAVE closed above $430, especially with this low volume. Only explanation is a concentration in call owner(s) and someone what sub $430 badly. Surprising result. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 12, 2013 12:40:29 GMT -8
Most iPhone 4S owners in the US with 4Ses will (or should) get a 5S/whatever it's called anyway, if they don't switch to Android or something. Carriers love it when you don't take them up on the subsidy. And iPhones hold their value very, very well.
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 12:44:23 GMT -8
Lstream Do me a favor go back to Braeburn. They need your smart ass commentary there and you can hang out with those who have no idea how Apple operates. Sponge, Lstream did nothing objectionable here. I, too, have seen demos of identification technologies small enough to be incorporated into mobile devices. It comes down to the "how" and the "what for", not the "if". It's about building the case for right now. (hey, remember when you used to urge all of us to come over to Braeburn? ) Exploit the Need. Like LStream, I've got a 4s. If they put in this technology for the unlock feature, then integrate it with Passbook...I'll buy a new phone, boom. First of all Braeburn has changed a great deal in the last 5 months and you should know that. There a few good people there, but they spend more time posting here or not posting at all. Too many bears there who actually want Apple to go down. Secondly I don't mind opposing view points, I don't care for the editorial additions directed at me personally. Not needed or necessary. I can handle it and that is why I am still here. From time to time I will remind a few of you, that I can fight back. All the articles mentioned don't counter what I am saying. If anything it proves my point. WE will have to wait for a bigger iPHone. Glass front has many issues and the home button is too small to address the many sizes of finger. A digital scanner in an iPHone is a big deal and I don't see Apple ready to make that move yet My law enforcement contact explained to me the challenges. The deviced he showed me was not even on the market at that time back in Nov. It will be used by folks from DEA and FBI to instantly identify suspects in the field. The iPhone in its present form can not fit the finger print pad needed. It can not be glass. I expect Apple to overcome the challenges and improve things, but gov usually gets the first version. Look at Siri. We all agree fingerprint authentication is huge. Gregg and I have been barking about the mobile payment system for over a year. With a 5S I don's see how Apple can tap into that market while still having to address size of iPHone and glass issue. Millions of POS locations needed to get the ball rolling is also not a selling point right now. I see it in three years but not this year. As far as security just for the iPhone, I agree that would be huge. But still not enough to suddenly get millions more then they are already getting from defections and smartphone adoption. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 12:48:02 GMT -8
430 pin. pain was pretty spot on this week. Could we end up with under 9 million shares traded? We are at the bottom. No one wants to sell or buy. I went ahead and bought the one 550Jan call at 10.40. I am confident we will start a slow rebound towards 440 next week and beyond. i want to agree, but the spring is coiling up and it could let go in the down direction too. a kit if signs were pointing to a beat last quarter from other companies iphone #s, and then we dropped 10%. all it takes is a mediocre earnings report in two weeks and we will go lower. i like the call at 10.40 (personally ive been watching it too as an indicator of momentum etc). For example, it was $25+ when we got to 485. then back down to 10ish, then up to $20 or so when we hit 470 recently, and then back to 10ish again here. I know you have other plans, but if it goes up again pre-earnings, i 100% would close it off with a short call at 600 or something to create a spread. going into earnings w/o a spread scares me these days. even a decent report will hurt the call by itself due to the crushing of the implied volatility the next day. Not bad advice, but as much as I expect 525 and higher by July, I am prepared to see the coiled spring explode in the late fall. The iWatch and many other factors will be enough. This stock can move 100 in one week, so there is plenty of time. Won't panic regardless of what it does in two weeks. My plan is to sell those calls in 2014 to avoid 2013 taxes. |
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Post by zzmac on Apr 12, 2013 12:50:33 GMT -8
Your constant optimism is amusing but your share price predictions get tedious but they also border on dangerous for amateur investors who lurk here and think you know what you're talking about. Could we end up with under 9 million shares traded? We are at the bottom. No one wants to sell or buy. I went ahead and bought the one 550Jan call at 10.40. I am confident we will start a slow rebound towards 440 next week and beyond. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 12:58:30 GMT -8
My plan is to sell those calls in 2014 to avoid 2013 taxes. Nooooooooooo! You have FAR more to lose from late turns in the stock price (WS machinations, etc.) in January than you do saving a measly 1-2% on the tax bill paid one year earlier. A piece of advice: Don't let taxes influence your timing on when to sell, especially when it's a short term gain. |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 12, 2013 13:12:59 GMT -8
430 pin. pain was pretty spot on this week. i want to agree, but the spring is coiling up and it could let go in the down direction too. a kit if signs were pointing to a beat last quarter from other companies iphone #s, and then we dropped 10%. all it takes is a mediocre earnings report in two weeks and we will go lower. i like the call at 10.40 (personally ive been watching it too as an indicator of momentum etc). For example, it was $25+ when we got to 485. then back down to 10ish, then up to $20 or so when we hit 470 recently, and then back to 10ish again here. I know you have other plans, but if it goes up again pre-earnings, i 100% would close it off with a short call at 600 or something to create a spread. going into earnings w/o a spread scares me these days. even a decent report will hurt the call by itself due to the crushing of the implied volatility the next day. Not bad advice, but as much as I expect 525 and higher by July, I am prepared to see the coiled spring explode in the late fall. The iWatch and many other factors will be enough. This stock can move 100 in one week, so there is plenty of time. Won't panic regardless of what it does in two weeks. My plan is to sell those calls in 2014 to avoid 2013 taxes. That's fine and all. My point is I would sell a call against it pre earnings, and then you can buy it back right after earnings and go back to letting your call ride. it protects big against any size miss as well as a small/medium beat. it still makes money on a big beat, but just not as much. tldr the only way the 550 call on its own will beat out a spread going from pre-->post earnings, will be if we have a big beat and strong outlook. otherwise the IV crush will own the option price. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 13:18:01 GMT -8
My plan is to sell those calls in 2014 to avoid 2013 taxes. Nooooooooooo! You have FAR more to lose from late turns in the stock price (WS machinations, etc.) in January than you do saving a measly 1-2% on the tax bill paid one year earlier. A piece of advice: Don't let taxes influence your timing on when to sell, especially when it's a short term gain. If aapl is at 700 or 800 I won't care. I will be paying 45% in taxes. I will have plenty of offsetting losses from my other negative calls. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 13:21:15 GMT -8
Your constant optimism is amusing but your share price predictions get tedious but they also border on dangerous for amateur investors who lurk here and think you know what you're talking about. Could we end up with under 9 million shares traded? We are at the bottom. No one wants to sell or buy. I went ahead and bought the one 550Jan call at 10.40. I am confident we will start a slow rebound towards 440 next week and beyond. Glad you are amused. I only give advice to people to buy and hold. My short term predictions are no different then anyone else who comments on the stock. I don't trade weeklies or monthlies. Learned the hard way. My Jan550 call are less then 9% of my portfolio. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 13:23:39 GMT -8
If Apple runs late with the next iPhone, then any delays will be excusable if it has a fingerprint I.D. technology on board. It will be HUGE and signal Apple's next disruption with mobile payment processing. Plus, there will be less reliance on usernames and passwords. bgr.com/2013/04/12/iphone-5s-fingerprint-scanner-analysis-433410/It is a summary of what Brian White said in his note to investors. Nothing new. My law enforcement showed me the latest mobile fingerprint scanner. It is huge. I think Apple will need one more year. I expect it in 2014. There will be plenty of folks ready to buy a 5S with latest software, faster processor, faster camera, and maybe longer battery.  Didn't Moto already release a phone with a fingerprint reader early last year? |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 12, 2013 13:27:19 GMT -8
Last last. The Atrix, as I mentioned in a previous post, which AFAIK wouldn't do anything near what a systemwide fingerprint authentication could do.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2013 14:06:52 GMT -8
Last last. The Atrix, as I mentioned in a previous post, which AFAIK wouldn't do anything near what a systemwide fingerprint authentication could do. Thats the one, thanks Mav. But the hardware was suitable yes? They just lacked any software support right? |
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Post by mark on Apr 12, 2013 14:25:34 GMT -8
Ha. You're the one who just said it isn't possible to have a fingerprint scanner in the 5S because you saw some oversized old piece of technology. The irony is truly delicious isn't it? Odd thing is that my perspective on fingerprint scanning is actually bullish. All of its benefits are much closer than 2014 if Apple wants them to be. I have a 4S and have not felt compelled to purchase the 5. But a 5S with even the screen unlock feature activated by my fingerprint, has a lot of appeal, and could very likely convince me to upgrade. I think if the fingerprint feature is added (i.e. different external hardware) it likely won't be called 5S. Of course, if the fingerprint sensor is included in/under the display (or front glass) with no apparent hardware change, then it's possible. |
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Post by Lstream on Apr 12, 2013 14:47:13 GMT -8
Comments embedded below. Secondly I don't mind opposing view points, I don't care for the editorial additions directed at me personally. Not needed or necessary. I can handle it and that is why I am still here. From time to time I will remind a few of you, that I can fight back. In my case, I am countering your posts because of the serious lack of diligence that many of them have. It is not personal, but when you post stuff that is blatantly false in an area I know something about, then I feel compelled to respond. This latest one is no exception. Some of what you posted below is completely false, so I am commenting again.All the articles mentioned don't counter what I am saying. If anything it proves my point. WE will have to wait for a bigger iPHone. Glass front has many issues and the home button is too small to address the many sizes of finger. A digital scanner in an iPHone is a big deal and I don't see Apple ready to make that move yet Your are now moving the goal posts. Your point has been categorically refuted, not validated. A company with less resources than Apple has a sensor that could be put in a phone TODAY. Your original post was made an irrelevant comparison. Look at the size of the sensor in that video. Also note that the power consumption is minimal. You made the point that because the sensor you saw in law enforcement was large, that it meant that this technology was not coming until 2014. There is no reason whatsoever to draw this conclusion. The phone already has glass front. Of course the home button could end up needing a change. None of the objections you are now raising are serious enough to push the phone into 2014. I am not claiming a 2013 launch. I don't know anything more about Apple's internal plans than you do, but I don't run around claiming that I have special insight into what Apple is doing.My law enforcement contact explained to me the challenges. Well if what you are writing is based upon what this guy told you, then he has no idea what he is talking about. A law enforcement end user or buyer is not in the industry and is no expert whatsoever. Look at the Atrix for proof as others have pointed outThe deviced he showed me was not even on the market at that time back in Nov. It will be used by folks from DEA and FBI to instantly identify suspects in the field. The iPhone in its present form can not fit the finger print pad needed. No one is claiming that the present form factor would be unaltered. Just that it is technically feasible to put one in a phone today.It can not be glass. I expect Apple to overcome the challenges and improve things, but gov usually gets the first version. This is completely and totally false. My company designs and develops mobile computing devices. Same with the last one I was at - biggest Enterprise Mobility company in the world. The rule is - VOLUME gets the first versions and access. And that means cellular manufacturers. Not government. When you write stuff like this, it makes it blazingly obvious that you don't know the industry or what you are talking about. So why do you insist on doing it? Look at Siri. We all agree fingerprint authentication is huge. Gregg and I have been barking about the mobile payment system for over a year. With a 5S I don's see how Apple can tap into that market while still having to address size of iPHone and glass issue. As mentioned, your are trumping up an issue that is easy to overcome Millions of POS locations needed to get the ball rolling is also not a selling point right now. I see it in three years but not this year. As far as security just for the iPhone, I agree that would be huge. But still not enough to suddenly get millions more then they are already getting from defections and smartphone adoption. |
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 12, 2013 14:48:41 GMT -8
Historically AAPL experiences about a 3% run up pre-earnings. Looking at OI, that seems to be current expectations. Remember last April? And the one before that? |
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 12, 2013 14:59:32 GMT -8
You have FAR more to lose from late turns in the stock price (WS machinations, etc.) in January than you do saving a measly 1-2% on the tax bill paid one year earlier. A piece of advice: Don't let taxes influence your timing on when to sell, especially when it's a short term gain. +1 |
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Post by sponge on Apr 12, 2013 16:23:04 GMT -8
I am very comfortable with my view points regarding the iPhone 5S. Unlike many investors who see the world in a limited way, Johnny Ives and TC are not going to worry about how many iPHones the company can sell. They will release new technology when ready. The ATRIX video is not what Apple has in mind. That is a gimmick with lots of issues.
The finger print scanner I saw was bulky and awkward to hold. My contact is not just a nobody. Most agencies and including military rely on him for security advice in cyberspace. He hold workshops for other law enforcement agencies. He and his team are working directly with Apple on an App for a different feature. He asked me for help in contacting Apple to assist in moving that app more quickly. I don't have anyone at Apple that can help him by the way.
He has a $10 million budget just for security features and they are investing at least $2 million in this app alone. He showed me other scanners including the latest retina scanner. If you want to see it for yourself just travel to Dubai. They are the only airport in the world that has it.
Hope you all have a good weekend. Aapl ended up week over week and that is a good sign. It would have been better if it closed above 430, but with such low volume it really does not matter.
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Post by rickag on Apr 12, 2013 17:33:00 GMT -8
I am very comfortable with my view points regarding the iPhone 5S. Unlike many investors who see the world in a limited way, Johnny Ives and TC are not going to worry about how many iPHones the company can sell. They will release new technology when ready. The ATRIX video is not what Apple has in mind. That is a gimmick with lots of issues. The finger print scanner I saw was bulky and awkward to hold. My contact is not just a nobody. Most agencies and including military rely on him for security advice in cyberspace. He hold workshops for other law enforcement agencies. He and his team are working directly with Apple on an App for a different feature. He asked me for help in contacting Apple to assist in moving that app more quickly. I don't have anyone at Apple that can help him by the way. He has a $10 million budget just for security features and they are investing at least $2 million in this app alone. He showed me other scanners including the latest retina scanner. If you want to see it for yourself just travel to Dubai. They are the only airport in the world that has it. Hope you all have a good weekend. Aapl ended up week over week and that is a good sign. It would have been better if it closed above 430, but with such low volume it really does not matter. Got to hand it to you for your long term optimism and I really hope you don't have anymore margin calls. My optimism last year has cost me a lot of money in options, but the bulk of my investments in AAPL are in stock not on margin. By the way, I hope that you haven't breached any confidences. |
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