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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2012 15:43:18 GMT -8
I'm ready! Who else?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2012 15:44:53 GMT -8
HAY WAIT IT'S NOT MONDAY oh yeah you make the rules My thoughts haven't changed. It's all about iPhone 5 initial sales. The market will amplify or dampen the news. This is the week to watch for near-term signposts. (IMHO, of course) My hope is for 7M or more iPhone 5 sales. 6M+ should be fine.
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 23, 2012 15:46:06 GMT -8
So ready for an early week bounce! We should be hearing from Apple tomorrow morning on how many phone they sold this weekend. Hoping for a big one.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 23, 2012 15:47:31 GMT -8
Riot breaks out at Foxconn's Taiyuan plant, reportedly over guards beating up a worker By Richard Lai posted Sep 23rd 2012 4:01PM Breaking News News just came in that workers at Foxconn's Taiyuan plant have started a riot in the wee hours in China, and that police forces are on site to control the crowd. While the motive isn't clear, Sina Weibo user Li Tian reports that the riot isn't related to the recent anti-Japan protests, though judging by his photos, much damage has been done in the process. The same site suffered from a strike back in March over salary dispute -- the front-line workers failed to receive the promised pay rise. On a similar note, Foxconn's Chengdu plant also had a riot in June, but that was apparently due to an argument between some workers and a local restaurant owner. Update: We are seeing unofficial reports claiming the "2,000-people" riot was triggered by security guards hitting a worker at 10pm local time. Update 2: According to a provincial website, Foxconn's Taiyuan industrial park focuses on magnesium alloy components for consumer electronics, heat conduction products, LED lighting products, mobile phone products and magnesium alloy automotive components. Update 3: An undercover report from August mentioned that the Taiyuan plant processed the back casing of the iPhone 5. It also highlighted the company's harsh management as well as "practically compulsory" over-time work. We don't doubt that this riot escalated due to dissatisfaction over working conditions. www.engadget.com/2012/09/23/foxconn-taiyuan-riot/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2012 15:50:10 GMT -8
Apple and FLA, get on the case. It may not be exclusively or entirely related to iPhone 5 - or related at all? - but the media is only too eager to draw connections.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2012 16:21:50 GMT -8
I cant believe I'm saying this, but I think the iPhone outsold the Big Mac this weekend in units shipped.
Blows my mind.
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Post by roni on Sept 23, 2012 16:58:47 GMT -8
I cant believe I'm saying this, but I think the iPhone outsold the Big Mac this weekend in units shipped. Blows my mind. I hope so
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Post by Grover on Sept 23, 2012 17:19:14 GMT -8
Thought maybe I should answer my own question posed in the weekend thread.
The following is based on the assumption the number released tomorrow by Apple is a cumulative number not only weekend sales.
I think the street is looking for something in the 6.5 mil category based on the first 24 hour sale of 2 mil and number that analysts like Munster are throwing out there. Less than that number may result in a dip.
I think Apple releases a number of 7.1 giving the stock a boost. I arrive at this WAG on the following reasoning:
1. 2 mil the first day in pre-orders 2. I am guesstimating another 4 million web orders in the week that followed the first day sales. 3. 2.1 mil is a lot of retail orders to execute in one weekend, but Apple may have done that and more. Apple stores, Wal mart, Best Buy, Verizon, Sprint, and ATT as point of sales. Demand seems to be off the charts. Some locations sold out. I think having Hong Kong in the mix for the first week will prove to be huge.
This gets me to 8.1. I am deducting a million based on my bias as a huge Apple Bull and basically this is totally a WAG. This brings me back to 7.1. But if we get a number 8 or more, which may be impossible to execute in one week, we start seeing pics of rocket ships on this site.
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Post by prazan on Sept 23, 2012 17:32:39 GMT -8
As noted in the weekend thread, web orders do not count as sales until shipped, and after the first 12 hours or so of preorders the shipping times extended beyond the end of this month. Anything ordered in September but not shipped until October won't be booked until next quarter.
This raises a point that needs clarification, or at least, that can be clarified for me. Tomorrow will Apple report web orders plus units actually sold in retail outlets over the weekend? Or will they report "only" web orders actually shipped and units sold in retail outlets. These are completely different numbers. I remember it being orders either shipped or sold, but if someone knows how this works, please enlighten me.
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Post by Grover on Sept 23, 2012 17:41:15 GMT -8
I think, and posted with the assumption, they will announce a sales number which has nothing to do with in which quarter the sale will be counted.
The number you're referring to an EPS issue.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 23, 2012 17:49:45 GMT -8
I think, and posted with the assumption, they will announce a sales number which has nothing to do with in which quarter the sale will be counted. The number you're referring to an EPS issue. Exactly, I said that yesterday. Any announcement tomorrow has nothing to do with the earnings call.
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Post by prazan on Sept 23, 2012 18:07:23 GMT -8
With respect, how they determine the number isn't an EPS issue. Your clarification is much appreciated.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2012 18:08:39 GMT -8
When I asked Apple Investor Relations about initial sales for the 3rd gen iPad, the reply was: "The 3M new iPads included pre ordered iPads that SHIPPED along with shipments into the channel since launch on March 19th." Sometimes revenue recognition still gives me a headache. EDIT: Apple's revenue recognition policy excerpt from 2011 10-K: Still confused. Tons of iPhones get shipped direct to individuals so under GAAP or whatever, those aren't sales until the individuals sign for 'em. I thought I thought that when a company has a press release about sales, they're being consistent with how they define sales in their financial reporting.
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 23, 2012 18:15:26 GMT -8
My first post seems to have gotten lost.
Any idea how many iPhone 4s and older were sold in the quarter?
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 23, 2012 18:16:48 GMT -8
My first post seems to have gotten lost. Any idea how many iPhone 4s and older were sold in the quarter? Not enough.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2012 18:18:36 GMT -8
Well, iPhone 4 and 4S count for something though they will probably go unmentioned (per usual) in this initial sales report that we should be getting tomorrow. But since we can only guess at product mix, maybe "10% of whatever iPhone 5 sold" is a nice conservative place to start.
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 23, 2012 18:18:43 GMT -8
Ha!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2012 18:20:20 GMT -8
"Siri, remind me to clarify initial sales with Apple Investor Relations on Monday...or try to, anyway."
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Post by ellsab on Sept 23, 2012 18:23:34 GMT -8
As posted in another thread, supply seems much better this year, Telco store I worked for last year had around 20 for first day, then nothing for nearly two weeks.
This year 60+ first day launch, this morning another batch in 60s just arrived.
That's 120 plus in first few days compared to 20 odd last year! Last year all those that's missed out bar a few went Android! Not this year if they can keep up supply like this :-)
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Post by prazan on Sept 23, 2012 18:23:37 GMT -8
Mav, thanks for thinking about this and for following up. The revenue recognition statement clearly states that a product is considered sold when shipped, probably because liability passes to the transport company. So I'm not sure how GAAP affects it, but that's because I know far more about Garp than GAAP.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2012 18:29:31 GMT -8
Well, again, the first part makes you think, "well OK, shipped is sold." But then there's the online direct sales part, which is ALWAYS in play, especially for stuff like new iPhones and iPads, which in turn makes you wonder why Apple's revenue recognition statement seems to suggest that online direct sales aren't all that significant. Sure, maybe quite a bit less than 50% due to channel shipments or whatever, but hardly small potatoes: www.cultofmac.com/192038/look-at-all-these-iphone-5s-flooding-fedexs-distribution-center-image/
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Post by prazan on Sept 23, 2012 18:39:17 GMT -8
Given how quickly ship times on preorders jumped to 2 weeks and more, and the wide availability of the product at retail channels, I suspect that Apple is restricting web order availability in order to stock the retail shelves. If you're going to have more customers than product, then why not encourage those customers to come to the store, where they'll buy other stuff? This would also appeal to Apple's retail partners, who can then sell accessories to add value. And Apple gets the PR value of people lining up to buy the phone.
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Post by Grover on Sept 23, 2012 18:42:25 GMT -8
When I asked Apple Investor Relations about initial sales for the 3rd gen iPad, the reply was: "The 3M new iPads included pre ordered iPads that SHIPPED along with shipments into the channel since launch on March 19th." Sometimes revenue recognition still gives me a headache. EDIT: Apple's revenue recognition policy excerpt from 2011 10-K: Still confused. Tons of iPhones get shipped direct to individuals so under GAAP or whatever, those aren't sales until the individuals sign for 'em. I thought I thought that when a company has a press release about sales, they're being consistent with how they define sales in their financial reporting. Well it seems to me that revenue recognition as defined above and a sale for the purpose of a launch announced publicly are two different things. While I don't totally discount your thesis, I would suggest that the number released tomorrow will be extremely deceiving if it is a revenue recognition number. Why would Apple do that? They could have x million orders but will only annouce Y million? It makes no sense to me. Maybe all the two million preorders would not be shipped before the end of the quarter, but they announced them. No offense, but you may be over thinking it. Anyway my WAG was based on the assumption I stated.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2012 18:54:45 GMT -8
Hey, doesn't mean I have to like it. But, yes, not a big deal anyway when it comes to the important work of EPS calculations later. Every last shipped iPhone as of that initial sales report will be officially sold by quarter-end. Apple doesn't mess around when it hires entire fleets of shipping carriers for air freight on a scale the world hasn't ever seen before. iPlanes.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2012 18:59:38 GMT -8
I like my volatility conditions "regular" thank you very much. Recent history says Monday. We won't have to wait for long, I hope! We will probably hear something before the market opens. I have an uneasy feeling about tomorrow. Man I wish I would have been around on Friday to sell those short legs. Wh-what?!?! Since when?!?! You're Big Bull + !! (Mav, is that the right Bull category, same as Mercel?)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2012 19:01:08 GMT -8
BIG Bull + would probably get a smile out of Mercel. I remember Bull (me) and Bull+ (Maercellus). I forget what comes after.
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Post by prazan on Sept 23, 2012 19:01:14 GMT -8
One reason might be simply that an order isn't a sale. I suspect many people preordered and then cancelled the order after purchasing a unit in store. Why would someone do that? Because they want to make sure they get the phone as soon as possible, and why wait 3-4 weeks if you can get a phone in store? And why not preorder on the web first in the event you can't get one in store? I've done this with other products, most recently the MBPro Retina Display. I ordered one online and then cancelled the order when I lucked out in finding one in store. This also might help explain why shipping times on preorders are improving.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2012 19:09:55 GMT -8
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Post by onemoreanimal on Sept 23, 2012 19:26:03 GMT -8
So assuming supply is not an issue and demand is there, the big question becomes "how many units can be physically shipped?" That's our bottleneck.
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Post by Grover on Sept 23, 2012 19:44:27 GMT -8
One reason might be simply that an order isn't a sale. I suspect many people preordered and then cancelled the order after purchasing a unit in store. Why would someone do that? Because they want to make sure they get the phone as soon as possible, and why wait 3-4 weeks if you can get a phone in store? And why not preorder on the web first in the event you can't get one in store? I've done this with other products, most recently the MBPro Retina Display. I ordered one online and then cancelled the order when I lucked out in finding one in store. This also might help explain why shipping times on preorders are improving. So they announced 2 million pre-orders which are not sales? If they do this the way you and Mav think they will they should release a set of instructions to explain cause it makes zero sense.
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