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Post by wheeles on Nov 6, 2012 13:46:07 GMT -8
I had hoped that the prospect of a dividend might provide some lift today, but it only created a lift for the last 15 minutes. Instead what we got was a completion of the move to the daily middle STARC band and then a sell off down to retest the inside of the daily lower acceleration band. In short, a wholly technical day. It just goes to show how the machines must make up 95% of the trading in AAPL. Fundamentals? Forget fundamentals as they do not appear to matter. Even the prospect of someone short having to pay a dividend doesn't appear to make much difference.
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Post by Ultrarunner on Nov 6, 2012 15:35:57 GMT -8
Wheeles, your estimate of 95% is a pretty accurate guess. I spoke with a manager from an investment firm who did a study recently to determine how much trading is "real" and how much HFT, algos etc. I think it was around 40% "real" for the S&P but only 5% for AAPL. The machines rule!
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Post by wheeles on Nov 6, 2012 16:09:57 GMT -8
Wheeles, your estimate of 95% is a pretty accurate guess. I spoke with a manager from an investment firm who did a study recently to determine how much trading is "real" and how much HFT, algos etc. I think it was around 40% "real" for the S&P but only 5% for AAPL. The machines rule! Despite what people say about the fundamentals of AAPL, it is a highly technical stock. I've made various calls in the past that have totally nailed it based purely on a few lines on a chart. Every day I see moves that are predictable across various timeframes. Admittedly, the last couple of days have been less than stellar, prediction-wise, but that's largely because I am letting what I want to happen, impact my judgement. I want the bigger moves that I can see occurring fairly soon, happening a bit sooner and not do all these retests. It's just frustrating to see all this back-and-forth nonsense when it's clear that a move up of about 30 bucks is on the horizon, and when it goes, it'll just rip higher in much the same way that last Friday plunged relentlessly.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 6, 2012 17:05:07 GMT -8
Wheeles, your estimate of 95% is a pretty accurate guess. I spoke with a manager from an investment firm who did a study recently to determine how much trading is "real" and how much HFT, algos etc. I think it was around 40% "real" for the S&P but only 5% for AAPL. The machines rule! Despite what people say about the fundamentals of AAPL, it is a highly technical stock. I've made various calls in the past that have totally nailed it based purely on a few lines on a chart. Every day I see moves that are predictable across various timeframes. Admittedly, the last couple of days have been less than stellar, prediction-wise, but that's largely because I am letting what I want to happen, impact my judgement. I want the bigger moves that I can see occurring fairly soon, happening a bit sooner and not do all these retests. It's just frustrating to see all this back-and-forth nonsense when it's clear that a move up of about 30 bucks is on the horizon, and when it goes, it'll just rip higher in much the same way that last Friday plunged relentlessly. You really think so, Wheeles? A 30-point move is clear? That's how the three other really low lows (June '11, Nov. 11, May '12, and now Oct./Nov. '12 - hey, that's a WTF sale just about every 5-6 months) ended, with a big black/white candle. Is there really anything about this low that strikes you as different? We've been sandwiched between the 200-day SMA and the 200-day EMA for 3 days now, and June '11 we also went three days (and 1 day was underneath both 200-days) before the black/white candle formed. Sounds like tomorrow is make or break. But if we don't re-capture the 200-day SMA tomorrow, what's the worst that can happen, we drift lower? Is sentiment that bad where we really can't catch a bid, or is TA devoid of sentiment? I do remember that June '11 low, and the sentiment on this board was vey similar. Panic. Fear. A move up is imminent.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 6, 2012 20:59:12 GMT -8
RG, love the optimism, but the reality is AAPL has no buyers. If yesterday was not a tell, I don't know what is. Good grief, the DOW was up 130 points and AAPL was down. I think we go sideways for months. There is no up coming. This move has broken the will of the AAPL market.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 21:22:03 GMT -8
Mark, that's what "they" want you to think...
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 6, 2012 23:35:26 GMT -8
Stock charts shows the close as 580.20. Man, that is just so wrong on so many levels. What was the high today? What is real?
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Post by kloot on Nov 6, 2012 23:51:08 GMT -8
Stock charts shows the close as 580.20. Man, that is just so wrong on so many levels. What was the high today? What is real? they must have already adjusted for the divvy. last time it took a couple hours into ex-div day before they updated their charts.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 7, 2012 4:34:57 GMT -8
You really think so, Wheeles? A 30-point move is clear? I believe so, but that does not stop cretins from selling AAPL down to 576 in the PM. At the moment nobody wants AAPL while it is going down and everyone is waiting for it to go up to jump on board again. What is required is something to light the fuse and people will be scrambling to get on board. Of course, it doesn't help that there is chatter about how Hon Hai can't meet Apple's high quality standards. Not sure if this is the usual FUD stuff to talk the price down further. Frankly, to me that says: find new manufacturers, Apple, or start building the stuff yourself in your own facilities.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 8, 2012 7:51:23 GMT -8
There's a certain combination of things I tend to look for in a capitulation top or bottom. Each time we always see a big move beyond targets, high volume (2M+ shares trading in 5 minutes), and the 4H, 1H, 10m and 2m STARC bands all getting hit on the same final low/high bar. Each of the times in this move down when I or others have called capitulation, one of these components has been missing. Either it's volume, not hitting an expected target, or those STARC bands not getting hit all at the same time.
On the 541.18 low we got all of those things all together.
Can AAPL go lower? Sure. If someone is determined enough to push it lower, then it'll go lower, but I can't help but think that some large funds will be switching to accumulation mode even if it's for an oversold bounce.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 8:01:29 GMT -8
Let's say AAPL could do even half of say LVS's recovery from the "classic" capitulation bottom in late July. If a trader was more inclined to wait for "confirmation" of some kind (with AAPL as it is now it could be very tricky) what price action above what level is a decent tell?
To me, AAPL must at least find support in the mid 550s on an upswing, preferably 560 as a first step.
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Post by rickag on Nov 8, 2012 8:51:49 GMT -8
.....switching to accumulation mode even if it's for an oversold bounce. Oversold doesn't begin to describe AAPL at the moment and I'm virtually out of cash to take advantage. May the EOs decide it is time to stick it to the bears.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 8:56:24 GMT -8
Tiny intraday "bull" flag?
Looks like nice day trades out there but that's not my game. I like seeing a bigger picture of the day.
550 is 550 though. Congrats to the tactical longs in the low 540s.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 8, 2012 9:30:06 GMT -8
One thing I am now considering is how much of a retest of capitulation lows will the price do? The price wants to move back inside the 1H bands, but also wants to touch the lower 10m Bollinger. Those two things are conflicting at present and the action on the 10m chart should not be overpowering that on the hourly chart.
If the price can start to finding support at the 1H bands and not just gleefully dump down to the 10m lower Bollinger (around 540), then things might start looking up. The longer we stay in the upper 540s, then the higher that 10m lower band climbs. Ideally I want to see those shorter timeframe bands inside the longer timeframe ones. Then we can merrily tag that lower 10m Bollinger and start to climb higher.
EDIT: The tag of the lower 10m Bollinger just happened at around 543.10.
EDIT2: And it went and retested the whole move down once more and put in a new low for good measure. <insert swear word of your choice here>
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 11:12:29 GMT -8
Considering the S&P crapped its pants today also (to the 200 DMA) it is even harder for AAPL to find a toe hold. Actually did not breach, but that was just its first try, it will fall on the next try.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 11:17:46 GMT -8
Next levels I'm looking at (sigh)
530 and 522
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 12:09:54 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 15 MIN: See Fibs.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 12:35:24 GMT -8
Ok, but...
Confluence around the 520s. But the Fibs are based on what predicate move iPad?
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 12:49:23 GMT -8
Oh come on REALLY? Crazy final minutes so far.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 8, 2012 13:02:14 GMT -8
That's it. I'm done making TA posts. This thing is totally messed up. When you've got a bunch of machines just selling away willy-nilly and people throwing in the towel all over the place, all rationality disappears. Even classic signs of capitulation still don't seem to have much effect. Ridiculous. Utterly ridiculous.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 13:05:56 GMT -8
AAPL needed sustained upside. It didn't get it today.
So the Wheel of Pain keeps turning...
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 14:25:26 GMT -8
That's it. I'm done making TA posts. This thing is totally messed up. When you've got a bunch of machines just selling away willy-nilly and people throwing in the towel all over the place, all rationality disappears. Even classic signs of capitulation still don't seem to have much effect. Ridiculous. Utterly ridiculous. The machines have gone crazy. This is just what the economy needs, destruction of millions of peoples accounts. Of course, that may be the grand plan. big Bird, Technicals went out the window when AAPL broke through the 200 DMA. the rest of this is account assassination.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 8, 2012 16:21:12 GMT -8
big Bird, Technicals went out the window when AAPL broke through the 200 DMA. the rest of this is account assassination. I've spent much of this evening staring at my charts and trying to fathom out how I should approach my trading in future. It's clear that many of the rules I have for saner times work extremely well, but simply fall apart when fear or greed overwhelm things. The question is: when does the action move from sane to spectacularly messed up, and is there a study that I can use to easily denote when I should only trade long, only trade short, or can trade both long and short? Until I determine what that is, then I am somewhat lost for answers.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 16:35:17 GMT -8
Birdie, I have always remembered something you said last year in one of your early wise posts over at AFB1: when all else fails, go back to trendlines.
There are times -- not often, definitely the exception -- when all else fails. This is one of those times. Perhaps the tip-off is the embedded oscillators. I, for one, have never experienced this embedded-ness in oversold territory. Likewise, this past Feb-Mar, I'd never experienced it in overbought territory to such extent.
So I heed your advice. Until that downtrendline breaks, might as well just sit back. It's a bottomless pit that ends when it ends. At this point, I don't think we'll be able to definitively confirm a bottom until it's in the rearview mirror.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 16:47:26 GMT -8
Because I have nothing better to do than stare at inkblots as we tear through one support level after another... Take another look at this hypothetical fractal (read: Mini Me)... AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Post by wheeles on Nov 8, 2012 16:58:27 GMT -8
Birdie, I have always remembered something you said last year in one of your early wise posts over at AFB1: when all else fails, go back to trendlines. That is true: trendlines are always the fallback. I guess what I am trying to determine is when it is safe to trade a range and when you should only trade in one direction. Also, when should you stop trading in that one direction and start looking to trade the moves against the trend? At some point AAPL is going to rip back up and catch a lot of people out. Which trend line would need to be broken for you to be confident of catching the bulk of the move? And when do you get off again? These are all questions I want answered in my own mind. I am not interested in trying to catch every wiggle, but I do want to be on board and facing the right direction for the bigger moves.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 17:43:05 GMT -8
I think the bottom will be actually pretty obvious, kind of.
Notice how ridiculously linear this selloff has been?
It'll take continued patience though.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 8, 2012 18:14:45 GMT -8
I think the bottom will be actually pretty obvious, kind of. Notice how ridiculously linear this selloff has been? It'll take continued patience though. I think this week has been linear, and all downhill. In the past, we would drop 2 days, then maybe retrace, but not here. Relentless.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:39:45 GMT -8
I'm actually talking a bit zoomed out.
Since 705 the way down has been really quite linear. This could help us determine the end of the selloff due to its pretty consistent character.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 9, 2012 7:51:45 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 30-MIN: See confluence at LOD. Maybe, just maybe...
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