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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 20:05:56 GMT -8
Don't believe me? What I'm talking about here, in large part, has already happened. But let's look forward at the HTC One. It just came out and I dont need sales figures to know already that it's going to be, relatively speaking at least, a huge hit for HTC. It looks infinitely cooler that the iPhone 5. And that's a problem for Apple. And if you don't see that, it's potentially a problem for you, as a shareholder, too. You're new here so sorry if I sound unconvinced. And I'm fully capable of assessing risk, thank you very much. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 20:08:26 GMT -8
Dell's P/E is higher than Apple's tonight. Hmmm, I think I'll follow Blackstone's lead on this one... |
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 20:11:23 GMT -8
Don't believe me? What I'm talking about here, in large part, has already happened. But let's look forward at the HTC One. It just came out and I dont need sales figures to know already that it's going to be, relatively speaking at least, a huge hit for HTC. It looks infinitely cooler that the iPhone 5. And that's a problem for Apple. And if you don't see that, it's potentially a problem for you, as a shareholder, too. You're new here so sorry if I sound unconvinced. And I'm fully capable of assessing risk, thank you very much. Well thanks for corroborating my decision not to post 1+ years ago b/c I knew my post count would doom me. Holla back when HTC One sales figures are released. If both phones were coming out for the first time today which would you (honestly) buy: www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oBIrmrgduxs#at=113 (HTC One vs iPhone 5) |
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Post by Lstream on Apr 18, 2013 20:18:29 GMT -8
You're new here so sorry if I sound unconvinced. And I'm fully capable of assessing risk, thank you very much. Well thanks for corroborating my decision not to post 1+ years ago b/c I knew my post count would doom me. Holla back when HTC One sales figures are released. If both phones were coming out for the first time today which would you (honestly) buy: www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oBIrmrgduxs#at=113 (HTC One vs iPhone 5) HTC has a nice phone on their hands there. But the advantage is fleeting in the never ending game of leapfrog now. It is too late for a great phone with an undifferentiated ecosystem to win at the high end. They will be fighting for table scraps with the low cost Chinese suppliers who are shipping decent product now. The first time question you pose is irrelevant now. Maybe it would have mattered a few years ago, but those days are gone. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 20:26:44 GMT -8
Well thanks for corroborating my decision not to post 1+ years ago b/c I knew my post count would doom me. Holla back when HTC One sales figures are released. If both phones were coming out for the first time today which would you (honestly) buy: www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oBIrmrgduxs#at=113 (HTC One vs iPhone 5) HTC has a nice phone on their hands there. But the advantage is fleeting in the never ending game of leapfrog now. It is too late for a great phone with an undifferentiated ecosystem to win at the high end. They will be fighting for table scraps with the low cost Chinese suppliers who are shipping decent product now. The first time question you pose is irrelevant now. Maybe it would have mattered a few years ago, but those days are gone. HTC is a nicer phone than the S4, but it's still running Android. Aside from the fact I don't patronize companies that rip off other company's designs, HTC has a big struggle ahead of it. Finally, as I mentioned last weekend, the ATT rep said he likes the new HTC, but that customer interest is thin and that people are waiting for the S4 (despite prognostications here to the contrary). The HTC One was on display; the S4 was not. And that was one lame video. LOL |
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 20:30:49 GMT -8
Well thanks for corroborating my decision not to post 1+ years ago b/c I knew my post count would doom me. Holla back when HTC One sales figures are released. If both phones were coming out for the first time today which would you (honestly) buy: www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oBIrmrgduxs#at=113 (HTC One vs iPhone 5) HTC has a nice phone on their hands there. But the advantage is fleeting in the never ending game of leapfrog now. It is too late for a great phone with an undifferentiated ecosystem to win at the high end. They will be fighting for table scraps with the low cost Chinese suppliers who are shipping decent product now. The first time question you pose is irrelevant now. Maybe it would have mattered a few years ago, but those days are gone. I agree but my point is that Samsung, HTC etc were able to make that leapfrog because, like a boxer dropping his/her gloves, Apple provided the opening. If they start to cover up by releasing a larger phone (and, ideally, updating IOS) it will be a lot harder for others to land a punch. Equal screen size + ecosystem + cool factor + installed base = knockout & car talk time again on AFB. |
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Post by applemuncher on Apr 18, 2013 20:32:36 GMT -8
You're new here so sorry if I sound unconvinced. And I'm fully capable of assessing risk, thank you very much. Well thanks for corroborating my decision not to post 1+ years ago b/c I knew my post count would doom me. Holla back when HTC One sales figures are released. If both phones were coming out for the first time today which would you (honestly) buy: www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oBIrmrgduxs#at=113 (HTC One vs iPhone 5) Hi jeff8687. Welcome to the board. I hope you continue to post here. Different opinions are great, and honestly, this board suffers from groupthink sometimes. |
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 20:32:53 GMT -8
HTC has a nice phone on their hands there. But the advantage is fleeting in the never ending game of leapfrog now. It is too late for a great phone with an undifferentiated ecosystem to win at the high end. They will be fighting for table scraps with the low cost Chinese suppliers who are shipping decent product now. The first time question you pose is irrelevant now. Maybe it would have mattered a few years ago, but those days are gone. Finally, as I mentioned last weekend, the ATT rep said he likes the new HTC, but that customer interest is thin and that people are waiting for the S4 (despite prognostications here to the contrary). The HTC One was on display; the S4 was not. Who are you going to believe? An ATT rep or a guy with 9 posts in 6 years? |
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 20:35:05 GMT -8
Well thanks for corroborating my decision not to post 1+ years ago b/c I knew my post count would doom me. Holla back when HTC One sales figures are released. If both phones were coming out for the first time today which would you (honestly) buy: www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oBIrmrgduxs#at=113 (HTC One vs iPhone 5) Hi jeff8687. Welcome to the board. I hope you continue to post here. Different opinions are great, and honestly, this board suffers from groupthink sometimes. Thanks. Your posts since earlier this year have been on the money as far as I'm concerned. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 20:35:14 GMT -8
Finally, as I mentioned last weekend, the ATT rep said he likes the new HTC, but that customer interest is thin and that people are waiting for the S4 (despite prognostications here to the contrary). The HTC One was on display; the S4 was not. Who are you going to believe? An ATT rep or a guy with 9 posts in 6 years? You've answered that yourself. |
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Post by applemuncher on Apr 18, 2013 20:38:42 GMT -8
I'm a many-times-a-day visitor to this forum and I was going to make a long post to this forum many moons ago at the time when there were only rumors about the iPhone 5 and Andy Zaky and others were predicting the stock would go to 1000+. I thought about making that post for many months (and after the iPhone 5 was released) but never did because I figured given the the tenor of the discussion here and my post count, no one was going to give it credence anyhow. But the gist of that post was going to be that if the early rumored images of the iPhone 5 were correct and that they were, in fact, not going to make a larger phone than what was rumored, that the stock was going to be in major trouble. When the iPhone 5 was actually released and I saw the size of it everything in me told me to sell (I was 100% invested in Apple and have been since the first iPhone). But all of you have far more knowledge about the market than I do and I kept reading these boards and, particularly, Andy Zaky's 1000 prediction and, although it was against everything I believed, I held for a while despite my reservations. My thought was "they must know more than I do." Finally, though, when the stock dropped past to 650, I said to myself "why am I listening to a bunch of strangers instead of my own instincts when I know this phone is going to flop?" and I sold it all. I'm not looking for any credit for that or to make any of you with significant losses (I only held common, by the way) feel worse. I'm sorry for everyone's losses. But for months and then (I think) more than a year since, I've read all kinds of cockamamie theories on this board for why the share price was dropping. Macro things. Things that I have exactly zero knowledge about and don't care to learn about (the bollinger bands were crossing the 7 houses of the rising sun and forming a triple helix with a half-gainer, etc). And still it goes on (see my forum *favorite* greggthurman who still doesn't get it). Look, it's as simple as this and as applemuncher has been saying: * Apple is where it is because they didn't release a phone the size of the Samsung Galaxy S3 (not the Note - no one wants a huge phablet like that but the size of the Galaxy is obviously, clearly, indubitably the right size). * The exact moment that Apple the company and Aapl jumped the shark was this one and I knew it the moment I saw it: www.redvipcard.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/samsung-galaxy-s3-vs-iphone-5.jpeg * Apple can unjump the shark and return to its glory by releasing an iPhone 6 that is the same size at the Galaxy. It's that simple. They could keep everything else the same, just do that, and in a few months all the annoying people talking about luxury cars on this board would be doing it again. * But they better do it friggin' quickly because it's getting late early around here. Disagree completely. A much more likely reason apple dropped from its peak is earnings growth slowed dramatically and failed to match the high expectations of Wall Street and amateur analysts alike. If the iPhone 5 was the same size as the Samsung galaxy 3, and sales & earnings numbers remained the same, then AAPL would still be where it is today. No one anywhere at any point in time has made a convincing argument that a large screen iPhone 5 would have sold better than the current iPhone 5. In fact all actual facts like sales numbers (and even android screen size data) point to the iPhone screen size of 4" or less increasing in smartphone marketshare. To look at your reasoning another way - if apple kept the iPhone 5 as it is, but was able to produce 60 million units in the supply constrained Dec quarter and consequently had a huge earnings beat - do you think the share price would still be at $390 today because "the iPhone 5 doesn't have as big a screen as the Samsung galaxy 3"? If your basing your investment decisions on what size screen a company decides to put in a phone, I'm happy for you that you are no longer investing in Apple. Instead of Apple dictating screen size, it would be nice if iPhone customers could choose a device with a 5" display. Then we would know which screen size was the better seller. Samsung has the right strategy in this regard. |
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Post by jeff99 on Apr 18, 2013 20:48:06 GMT -8
Disagree completely. A much more likely reason apple dropped from its peak is earnings growth slowed dramatically and failed to match the high expectations of Wall Street and amateur analysts alike. If the iPhone 5 was the same size as the Samsung galaxy 3, and sales & earnings numbers remained the same, then AAPL would still be where it is today. No one anywhere at any point in time has made a convincing argument that a large screen iPhone 5 would have sold better than the current iPhone 5. In fact all actual facts like sales numbers (and even android screen size data) point to the iPhone screen size of 4" or less increasing in smartphone marketshare. To look at your reasoning another way - if apple kept the iPhone 5 as it is, but was able to produce 60 million units in the supply constrained Dec quarter and consequently had a huge earnings beat - do you think the share price would still be at $390 today because "the iPhone 5 doesn't have as big a screen as the Samsung galaxy 3"? If your basing your investment decisions on what size screen a company decides to put in a phone, I'm happy for you that you are no longer investing in Apple. Instead of Apple dictating screen size, it would be nice if iPhone customers could choose a device with a 5" display. Then we would know which screen size was the better seller. Samsung has the right strategy in this regard. Moreover, it doesn't matter which one sells more (cough, the bigger one). What matters is that there are many buyers who prefer a large screen and turn elsewhere because Apple doesn't offer it. |
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Post by applemuncher on Apr 18, 2013 20:49:26 GMT -8
Hi prazan. The high end smartphone market is dominated by phones with 5" displays. The market has spoken and Apple is not listening. There are a ton of iPhone 4 and iPhone 4s customers who are waiting to upgrade to an iPhone with a 5" display. I know I am. And the majority people I know with older iPhones agree with me. Really? Where's your evidence, other than creative anecdotal. All of the research firms show 5" share to be very small. Gregg, please take a look at all of the top selling high end smartphones on the market today and notice the size of their displays. The fact that iPhone sells as well as it does is a testament to the fantastic ecosystem Apple has built, the build quality of the device, etc. I am convinced it is not because most people prefer a 4" display. Don't get me wrong. Some people do like the 4" display. But I'm telling you there is a huge market for an iPhone with a 5" display. |
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Post by applemuncher on Apr 18, 2013 21:00:17 GMT -8
I'm interested to know who would you replace him with. Elon Musk has already got enough on his plate, so you can't have him. Sir Jonathan Ive would receive my vote and in my mind would be the closest replacement to Steve. Cook was a great operations guy, but I fear he may be a victim of the Peter Principle. |
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Post by seabiscuit on Apr 18, 2013 21:06:02 GMT -8
Curious if any of you who have said you have "sent an e-mail to TC" have ever heard back from him (or someone from Investor Relations? I have TC a bunch- of course, never heard back- I am sure he has a private e-mail - but I guess that someone at Apple has the responsibility to read the e-mails he gets from the public.- and perhaps gives some sort of summary to TC. I did hear back from the investor relations one time with a boiler plate response thanking me for my interest in Apple, etc. |
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Post by macziggy on Apr 18, 2013 23:23:14 GMT -8
I'm interested to know who would you replace him with. Elon Musk has already got enough on his plate, so you can't have him. Sir Jonathan Ive would receive my vote and in my mind would be the closest replacement to Steve. Cook was a great operations guy, but I fear he may be a victim of the Peter Principle. Not my vote because he's way too much a form guy rather than a function guy. Just look at the 26" iMacs....way too precious....can't get the manufacturing right all that lamination and stuff (and I own a 2010 iMac which I love--but have had multiple problems with). Really! That's Ive....great design: poor execution capable on his design. Not Good. The most amazing designs will fail if you cannot EXECUTE them. Period. Ive's not the one to lead. Steve was there as his EDITOR. A brilliant one....a genius! There is sadly, no one to replace him. Certainly not Cook. Apple is flailing about, lost in space right now. Ive's not the answer. Wall Street goons have picked this up. That's why the stock has been devastated. It's all about the future. And with Apple, that is a huge question mark because of all the missteps. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2013 0:51:59 GMT -8
I can't believe what I'm reading here.
Peace out everyone, good luck with earnings next week and your investments in future.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 19, 2013 1:32:36 GMT -8
Sir Jonathan Ive would receive my vote and in my mind would be the closest replacement to Steve. Cook was a great operations guy, but I fear he may be a victim of the Peter Principle. Not my vote because he's way too much a form guy rather than a function guy.. I strongly disagree. Ive follows the Bauhaus design philosophy that form follows function. |
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