Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 16:28:29 GMT -8
iPad,
Those extrapolations are my own, and actually I think more than a few current active posters are thinking somewhat along those lines. You and I know each other well enough from AFB that misunderstandings between us are...usually avoided. Or cleared up with a sharp, quick threat to me. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2013 16:31:29 GMT -8
It is a simple solution. Do you think Apple's management would consider it? Yes! In fact, Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein recently commented that Apple's position on debt "has evolved" and is now part of the discussion. 2.5% for the medium term -- plus or minus .5%. It's a nominal rate: The true cost of 2.5% to Apple would be 1.65 after deducting FIT at top US rate of 35%. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 16:36:10 GMT -8
Actually there are. a. >3.5" <6" display are wildly popular. b. Maps fiasco and firing of Scott Forstall. c. Missteps during Christmas selling seasons e.g. manufacturing problems with iMacs. d. Loss of talented rank and file has increased. e. Firing of SVP retail. Should have more but can't remember. Whether justified the $300 drop is debatable. What we do know is TC's premium since he took over is gone. Is now back to Oct 2011. a) When the competition goes big, and the competition has outsold Apple forever... Greater China is the greenfield, one day battlefield to watch. If you wish to dismiss the US market, you'll find a "less deniable" truth off to the East. b) Who hired Scott anyway? Sins of the Forstall. I don't know why I'm the only one who keeps beating that drum. Essentially, he "outlived his usefulness" and set iPhone back at least four months. That's before we start talking iOS itself. c) Will you guys cut out that 700,000 missing iMac meme? I won't go over the "Yikes" Power Mac G4 debacle again. And if the Apple TV does emerge with an optically laminated display, I reserve the right to tell you all "I told you so". d) Pure anecdote. Also, big companies can't help but "go corporate" in ways. The narrative for Apple is different now. Those who joined to build Apple up may well decide their work is done. More important is the long-term employee retention rate. e) Apple Retail itself seems to be fine. Browett was an idiot hire, so I'll spot you $50 of share price, and I'm being generous. As for "why no 100 Apple Stores in China"? Two words: Weibo campaign. Or, if you speak Facebook? "It's complicated." |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2013 16:36:55 GMT -8
If I had an email I'd give the analyst a big attaboy (or attagirl). ___________________________________________________ I suggested this idea to Tim Cook last quarter and still think it's a good one: Skip the audio presentation and do a full-on presentation, with video of them and slides showing the results of the March quarter, a surprise that's part of Apple's DNA. A picture is worth a 1,000 words and it's time to seize the narrative back on Apple's financial performance, dominating the mobile landscape with customer satisfaction, retention and profitability. The list of achievements is LONG. Give analysts something they don't expect, a powerful presentation unlike any analysts have seen before. Certainly, Apple has enough to crow about, far more than what Google can B.S. analysts with. Sentiment is a funny thing, an intangible that can turn direction quickly. Then, one more thing....Apple is increasing its dividend to 4% and will be making a $50B stock repurchase, more if necessary. Brilliant suggestion. Hope someone in ET takes notice. Thanks Mace.  I'm going to write Tim again. Hell, I'm VERY familiar with Keynote and could do something competitive myself if I have the time to play with it this weekend. You remember the iPhone event for the 5? The opening video of how Apple products are changing lives? That stuff is worth 500 audio casts alone. Apple is not leading with their best messages often enough. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 16:39:17 GMT -8
Well, Apple has been 100% silent through mid-April. ZERO special events. When was the last time that happened?
Not helping. Oh, hell yes (or is it no)?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2013 16:39:25 GMT -8
Pessimism is so extreme now, have to wonder whether TA is wrong that bottom is somewhere in $350-$380. May be $385 is good enough. LovemyiPad - You think the past three days is a 3 and not a parabolic 5? The candlestick pattern is a Bullish Unique Three River Bottom Pattern. Even if not a bottom, next week should see a rebounce towards 20-day EMA/SMA and then result would show the direction, a gap down or up, is the likely scenario. How about a Saturn V launch pattern on Wednesday? |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 16:40:36 GMT -8
That all depends on earnings, of course. Anyone who still cares, I expect to see you guys in the appropriate topics. Guidance is another HUGE test to go with the actual numbers.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 19, 2013 16:41:32 GMT -8
Pessimism is so extreme now, have to wonder whether TA is wrong that bottom is somewhere in $350-$380. May be $385 is good enough. LovemyiPad - You think the past three days is a 3 and not a parabolic 5? The candlestick pattern is a Bullish Unique Three River Bottom Pattern. Even if not a bottom, next week should see a rebounce towards 20-day EMA/SMA and then result would show the direction, a gap down or up, is the likely scenario. I think it's a 5 and a very likely bottom, but I am trying like hell to resist calling bottoms and let price prove it to me. Love your if/then ^^^. Excellent, excellent, as always, Mace!! P.S. My stink order to buy shares triggered @ 386 today. |
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 19, 2013 16:43:26 GMT -8
iPad, Those extrapolations are my own, and actually I think more than a few current active posters are thinking somewhat along those lines. You and I know each other well enough from AFB that misunderstandings between us are... usually avoided. Or cleared up with a sharp, quick threat to me. ;D LOL!! |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 16:44:16 GMT -8
It's EASY to call the potential bottom. - Earnings is fine. Look for power bounce and continued commitment. - Earnings is...not. For whatever of 20 reasons. Look for capitulation signs. See, simple as 1) Wait for earnings 2) Watch for signals 3)  (AHEM, ? ? ?  ) 4) Profit! What could go wrong? ;D Those pesky details. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2013 16:58:15 GMT -8
a) When the competition goes big, and the competition has outsold Apple forever... Greater China is the greenfield, one day battlefield to watch. If you wish to dismiss the US market, you'll find a "less deniable" truth off to the East. b) Who hired Scott anyway? Sins of the Forstall. I don't know why I'm the only one who keeps beating that drum. Essentially, he "outlived his usefulness" and set iPhone back at least four months. That's before we start talking iOS itself. c) Will you guys cut out that 700,000 missing iMac meme? I won't go over the "Yikes" Power Mac G4 debacle again. And if the Apple TV does emerge with an optically laminated display, I reserve the right to tell you all "I told you so". d) Pure anecdote. Also, big companies can't help but "go corporate" in ways. The narrative for Apple is different now. Those who joined to build Apple up may well decide their work is done. More important is the long-term employee retention rate. e) Apple Retail itself seems to be fine. Browett was an idiot hire, so I'll spot you $50 of share price, and I'm being generous. As for "why no 100 Apple Stores in China"? Two words: Weibo campaign. Or, if you speak Facebook? "It's complicated." And for all the "missteps" Apple is guilty of, where is the media taking Microsoft and Google to task for their failures, which are FAR MORE serious than Exhibits A, B and C for Apple. Microsoft: Windows 8? Surface? These failures are FAR more serious to Mr. Softie than Apple's losing John Browett or a Scott Forstall. And by the way, MSFT stock is HIGHER today than before these failures were completely known. Google: Andy Rubin, the father of Android left. Any slide in GOOG on this news? Nope. Nexus Q was a turd, pulled from the market? Embarrassing but water off a ducks back for GOOG. The Chromebook and Pixel are complete duds, market-wise. The market's reaction? GOOG is higher today AFTER all this news. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 17:06:43 GMT -8
Market irrationality in motion.
Today's Explanation: Apple's growth is uncertain.
Perception vs. reality. Which will win?
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Post by mace on Apr 19, 2013 17:59:31 GMT -8
Bear in mind, too, that Greater China has near-nonexistent LTE coverage. iPhone 5 isn't the same without (cough, theoretically) fast LTE or at least DC-HSDPA-class 10Mbps+ downlink. To a web surfer, the 4S would seem to perform almost as well for less money (though yes, a little less screen, let's not go there). 4S is the best for regions without LTE. My wish is Apple launches two iPhones in Sep/Oct, one has a similar form factor as 5 and another bigger one that look like an iPad nano (for China Mobile, 3 months exclusive) with no retina display. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 18:05:13 GMT -8
The Best or Nothing.
China Mobile, if it ever becomes an official iPhone carrier, will have Apple's best, guaranteed. If a cheap iPhone exists, it will have some version of the Retina Display, is my guess.
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Post by rickag on Apr 19, 2013 18:34:31 GMT -8
Pessimism is so extreme now, have to wonder whether TA is wrong that bottom is somewhere in $350-$380. May be $385 is good enough. LovemyiPad - You think the past three days is a 3 and not a parabolic 5? The candlestick pattern is a Bullish Unique Three River Bottom Pattern. Even if not a bottom, next week should see a rebounce towards 20-day EMA/SMA and then result would show the direction, a gap down or up, is the likely scenario. I think it's a 5 and a very likely bottom, but I am trying like hell to resist calling bottoms and let price prove it to me. Love your if/then ^^^. Excellent, excellent, as always, Mace!! P.S. My stink order to buy shares triggered @ 386 today. Here's to your stink bid, I am still on the sidelines, waiting on direction looking at buying up to 100 more shares. Call me chicken but I feel like a deer in the headlights. |
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I'm going to write Tim again. Hell, I'm VERY familiar with Keynote and could do something competitive myself if I have the time to play with it this weekend.
(AHEM, ? ? ? 
)