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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 6:42:41 GMT -8
Here's a tantalizing clue to a feature in the next iPhone. This leak is of a part that is unidentified, except some in the comments is suggesting it's a NFC component with a wrapped antenna. This isn't really in my wheelhouse, but if anyone wants to check out the link, I've provided it. I do know this, a mobile payment option will work best if both NFC and fingerprint sensor work in tandem. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is one of the better ones, and he expects we'll see the fingerprint sensor in the next iPhone. This would be a worthy "tentpole" feature. Mobile payment processing could be huge for Apple and AAPL. en.jm.pl/page,nowosc_produktowa,id_n,219,premo-sdtr1103-anteny-smd-do-aplikacji-hf-nfc.html
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 7:10:27 GMT -8
You're saying that Apple has stopped or will stop growing its earnings? In fact, Apple has reported higher earnings every quarter (YOY) since FQ1 2009 (which is where my data runs out). Further, Apple reported higher earnings in FQ1 2013 over the prior year, EVEN WITH an extra week in the prior year. If you factor out the extra week, they grew earnings by 7%. Apple hasn't reported FQ2 2013, but gross margins last March were an anomaly. Clearly, 47% wasn't going to repeat. Historically, Apple runs more toward a 40% average, which is far more sustainable. If Apple had reported 40% last March, AAPL would have reported $10.01 EPS, not $12.32. If Apple had known it was going to be punished so hard for putting up an extraordinary GM #, mgmt. probably regrets it. I'm quite comfortable that Apple will best $10.01 next Tuesday. I don't expect Wall Street to make such distinctions, but we should be better than that here. The RATE of earnings growth has certainly slowed, which is probably what you intended.
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Post by rickag on Apr 20, 2013 7:14:29 GMT -8
Here's to your stink bid, I am still on the sidelines, waiting on direction looking at buying up to 100 more shares. Call me chicken but I feel like a deer in the headlights. Rick, consider scaling (dollar-cost averaging) into your additional position versus taking the whole thing at once. Takes the sting off potentially bad timing. You could have four bullets of 25 shares, or five bullets of 20 shares, or ten bullets of 10 shares? Thank you for the reply. I was planning on scaling in with 25 share purchases as you suggest. I am not trying to time the market persay but am looking at scaling in on the way up as opposed to the way down. Might miss the bottom but for long term I am not too worried. This may change as of Monday
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 20, 2013 7:20:25 GMT -8
Rick, makes sense!!
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Post by appledoc on Apr 20, 2013 7:27:56 GMT -8
Here's a tantalizing clue to a feature in the next iPhone. This leak is of a part that is unidentified, except some in the comments is suggesting it's a NFC component with a wrapped antenna. This isn't really in my wheelhouse, but if anyone wants to check out the link, I've provided it. I do know this, a mobile payment option will work best if both NFC and fingerprint sensor work in tandem. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is one of the better ones, and he expects we'll see the fingerprint sensor in the next iPhone. This would be a worthy "tentpole" feature. Mobile payment processing could be huge for Apple and AAPL. en.jm.pl/page,nowosc_produktowa,id_n,219,premo-sdtr1103-anteny-smd-do-aplikacji-hf-nfc.html Not believing it until Apple shows it to us. We heard the same NFC crap about the 5.
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Post by applemuncher on Apr 20, 2013 7:40:52 GMT -8
You're saying that Apple has stopped or will stop growing its earnings? In fact, Apple has reported higher earnings every quarter (YOY) since FQ1 2009 (which is where my data runs out). Further, Apple reported higher earnings in FQ1 2013 over the prior year, EVEN WITH an extra week in the prior year. If you factor out the extra week, they grew earnings by 7%. Apple hasn't reported FQ2 2013, but gross margins last March were an anomaly. Clearly, 47% wasn't going to repeat. Historically, Apple runs more toward a 40% average, which is far more sustainable. If Apple had reported 40% last March, AAPL would have reported $10.01 EPS, not $12.32. If Apple had known it was going to be punished so hard for putting up an extraordinary GM #, mgmt. probably regrets it. I'm quite comfortable that Apple will best $10.01 next Tuesday. The RATE of earnings growth has certainly slowed, which is probably what you intended. I thought my post was clear, but yes, I'm talking about the rate of earnings growth. I agree with you about the extra week and big GM numbers for FYQ212. But the bottom line is that the days of Apple showing EPS growth of 20%-40% are gone.
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Post by sponge on Apr 20, 2013 8:18:48 GMT -8
You're saying that Apple has stopped or will stop growing its earnings? In fact, Apple has reported higher earnings every quarter (YOY) since FQ1 2009 (which is where my data runs out). Further, Apple reported higher earnings in FQ1 2013 over the prior year, EVEN WITH an extra week in the prior year. If you factor out the extra week, they grew earnings by 7%. Apple hasn't reported FQ2 2013, but gross margins last March were an anomaly. Clearly, 47% wasn't going to repeat. Historically, Apple runs more toward a 40% average, which is far more sustainable. If Apple had reported 40% last March, AAPL would have reported $10.01 EPS, not $12.32. If Apple had known it was going to be punished so hard for putting up an extraordinary GM #, mgmt. probably regrets it. I'm quite comfortable that Apple will best $10.01 next Tuesday. The RATE of earnings growth has certainly slowed, which is probably what you intended. I thought my post was clear, but yes, I'm talking about the rate of earnings growth. I agree with you about the extra week and big GM numbers for FYQ212. But the bottom line is that the days of Apple showing EPS growth of 20%-40% are gone. You want to see how Apple shows 40% growth? It is quite simple. We will need to make some assumptions about future unit numbers, but with enough historical data those assumptions should be realistic. In the 4th quarter last year Apple reported eps of 8.67 with GM at 40, iPhone 27 million, iPad 14 million. If Apple introduces a new iPhone and iWatch in July, iPads and Macs in August, iPods in Sept, we could see the following numbers for 4th quarter. iPhones 41.6 million, iWatch 6 million at $350 each, iPads 25.5 million, Macs at 4.9 million, iPods at 7.4 million. GM at 39.5 We get 12.29 for eps.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 20, 2013 8:20:04 GMT -8
You're saying that Apple has stopped or will stop growing its earnings? In fact, Apple has reported higher earnings every quarter (YOY) since FQ1 2009 (which is where my data runs out). Further, Apple reported higher earnings in FQ1 2013 over the prior year, EVEN WITH an extra week in the prior year. If you factor out the extra week, they grew earnings by 7%. Apple hasn't reported FQ2 2013, but gross margins last March were an anomaly. Clearly, 47% wasn't going to repeat. Historically, Apple runs more toward a 40% average, which is far more sustainable. If Apple had reported 40% last March, AAPL would have reported $10.01 EPS, not $12.32. If Apple had known it was going to be punished so hard for putting up an extraordinary GM #, mgmt. probably regrets it. I'm quite comfortable that Apple will best $10.01 next Tuesday. The RATE of earnings growth has certainly slowed, which is probably what you intended. I thought my post was clear, but yes, I'm talking about the rate of earnings growth. I agree with you about the extra week and big GM numbers for FYQ212. But the bottom line is that the days of Apple showing EPS growth of 20%-40% are gone. But even if 20% growth is behind us, does a company growing 10% with a likely September quarter closer to 15 to 20%, paying a 2.4% dividend deserve a historic P/E of 9 and, using my assumptions, a future P/E of 7.5? Reality has been thrown in the trash can somewhere along here....pick any other tech company, hardware, software, peripherals.....MSFT,INTC,GOOG,SNDK,ORCL,......they are priced for more growth opportunity than AAPL.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 8:28:28 GMT -8
I thought my post was clear, but yes, I'm talking about the rate of earnings growth. I agree with you about the extra week and big GM numbers for FYQ212. But the bottom line is that the days of Apple showing EPS growth of 20%-40% are gone. You want to see how Apple shows 40% growth? It is quite simple. We will need to make some assumptions about future unit numbers, but with enough historical data those assumptions should be realistic. In the 4th quarter last year Apple reported eps of 8.67 with GM at 40, iPhone 27 million, iPad 14 million. If Apple introduces a new iPhone and iWatch in July, iPads and Macs in August, iPods in Sept, we could see the following numbers for 4th quarter. iPhones 41.6 million, iWatch 6 million at $350 each, iPads 25.5 million, Macs at 4.9 million, iPods at 7.4 million. GM at 39.5 We get 12.29 for eps. Well that works great for one quarter, but then in January without a new phone for the previous 3 quarters, the comparison next January would be terrible and we'd back to the same declining earnings talk again.
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Post by sponge on Apr 20, 2013 8:49:37 GMT -8
You want to see how Apple shows 40% growth? It is quite simple. We will need to make some assumptions about future unit numbers, but with enough historical data those assumptions should be realistic. In the 4th quarter last year Apple reported eps of 8.67 with GM at 40, iPhone 27 million, iPad 14 million. If Apple introduces a new iPhone and iWatch in July, iPads and Macs in August, iPods in Sept, we could see the following numbers for 4th quarter. iPhones 41.6 million, iWatch 6 million at $350 each, iPads 25.5 million, Macs at 4.9 million, iPods at 7.4 million. GM at 39.5 We get 12.29 for eps. Well that works great for one quarter, but then in January without a new phone for the previous 3 quarters, the comparison next January would be terrible and we'd back to the same declining earnings talk again. Not necessarily. I would expect the iWatch to get bigger, and the holiday quarter with no shortages in any products combined with 41% margin will give us at least 15% eps growth YOY.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 20, 2013 8:52:14 GMT -8
All these new products, no shortages......and a 41% GM to boot.
Sponger, really......
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Post by applemuncher on Apr 20, 2013 8:58:02 GMT -8
I thought my post was clear, but yes, I'm talking about the rate of earnings growth. I agree with you about the extra week and big GM numbers for FYQ212. But the bottom line is that the days of Apple showing EPS growth of 20%-40% are gone. You want to see how Apple shows 40% growth? It is quite simple. We will need to make some assumptions about future unit numbers, but with enough historical data those assumptions should be realistic. In the 4th quarter last year Apple reported eps of 8.67 with GM at 40, iPhone 27 million, iPad 14 million. If Apple introduces a new iPhone and iWatch in July, iPads and Macs in August, iPods in Sept, we could see the following numbers for 4th quarter. iPhones 41.6 million, iWatch 6 million at $350 each, iPads 25.5 million, Macs at 4.9 million, iPods at 7.4 million. GM at 39.5 We get 12.29 for eps. Wow. Those are some optimistic numbers.
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Post by sponge on Apr 20, 2013 9:01:10 GMT -8
All these new products, no shortages......and a 41% GM to boot. Sponger, really...... Red If we introduce everything by Sept with the hottest products in July, I would expect plenty of supply for the FY1q. 41% GM would be challenging, I agree. But it can be done since we would be in the third quarter of productions for the iPhone and 2nd for the new iPads. I think the Retina Mini and redesigned iPad will both be monster hits.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 9:04:12 GMT -8
Left this response on Apple Investor's site.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 9:20:30 GMT -8
I couldn't agree with you more. But with their track record of disappointing Wall Street, I don't think they have any of what you list in them. As such, I will be appropriately hedged with disaster insurance in the form of bear put spreads. I simply refuse to get burned by Tc and PO again. I hope I'm closing them on Wednesday for a small to medium sized loss. I'm not much worried about Apple's results, as I am about the market's REACTION to them. I have no money at risk, at the moment, and probably will not until the Monday after earnings. With the change in trailing earnings (guaranteed to be negative) initial sentiment could drop even further. Only beating consensus, and providing positive guidance can counter that drop. I don't think that counter will engage until the Institutions digest Apple's 10Q and conference call statements. I will happily forego a positive pop immediately after earnings to get a better look at the lay of the land.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 9:24:24 GMT -8
Why did you change your name Sponge? I gotta think that with this kind of pricing, the slingshot is finally primed for the other direction. I can guarantee you that archibauld and sponge are 2 separate people. Ah, it just occurred to me that you are being sarcastic. In that case I find myself wondering the same thing. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 9:26:58 GMT -8
Well that works great for one quarter, but then in January without a new phone for the previous 3 quarters, the comparison next January would be terrible and we'd back to the same declining earnings talk again. Not necessarily. I would expect the iWatch to get bigger, and the holiday quarter with no shortages in any products combined with 41% margin will give us at least 15% eps growth YOY. No chance if a new iPhone comes in July will we get 15% eps growth in January.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 9:32:28 GMT -8
The thing is, Apple can change the perception in a heartbeat...boom. Suppose on Tuesday they announced earnings of $11.00/share, with growth (YOY of course...but spelled out clearly) in all products save iPods Then they give nice guidance for June....just nice.....using Oppy's new this is what we will do sign language . Then TC says "we own xxx% of the market in phones and tablets. We are taking aggressive steps across several form factors and price points to grow that share. Worldwide. You will hear much more about this soon. Nothing is off the table for what customers want in a device. We will use our enormous resources and supply chains to make this happen. In fact, we are....." Then the Board doubles the dividend Then the Board announces a new share buyback program has been approved ( no details....fine) Boom. Apple becomes the darling of growth and value investors. You know that WS and the idiots on CNBC are going to babble on about decreasing GMs. I would be happy if all TC and PO did was put color into last year's 47+% GM (a one time anomaly), and why comparing this year to last is not a valid expression of future GM trends.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 9:43:16 GMT -8
Actually earnings are growing. Earnings for FQ2/2012 were a one time anomaly (7 points above historic average). This year Apple is going to report historic average. If you normalize that one time aberration, this year's earnings would represent YoY growth. This is the single greatest mistake investors are making with regards to this year's performance vs last year. I'll guarantee you the Institutions aren't making that mistake, and are just biding their time to let retail sentiment nosedive even further (courtesy crap reporting by CNBC's idiot talking heads) to pick even cheaper shares, before the market catches on. Modified to add:Just read Mercel's post on the subject. Wiping away a tear I am.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 9:49:09 GMT -8
Here's a tantalizing clue to a feature in the next iPhone. This leak is of a part that is unidentified, except some in the comments is suggesting it's a NFC component with a wrapped antenna. This isn't really in my wheelhouse, but if anyone wants to check out the link, I've provided it. I do know this, a mobile payment option will work best if both NFC and fingerprint sensor work in tandem. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is one of the better ones, and he expects we'll see the fingerprint sensor in the next iPhone. This would be a worthy "tentpole" feature. Mobile payment processing could be huge for Apple and AAPL. en.jm.pl/page,nowosc_produktowa,id_n,219,premo-sdtr1103-anteny-smd-do-aplikacji-hf-nfc.html I seriously doubt Apple is going to adopt NFC. Bluetooth (doesn't require yet another specialized antenna) coupled with fingerprint recognition AND Apple's currently shipping iMessage encryption can do a better job than NFC, at a lower production cost to Apple, and the retailers that must install compatible readers.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 9:53:36 GMT -8
You're saying that Apple has stopped or will stop growing its earnings? In fact, Apple has reported higher earnings every quarter (YOY) since FQ1 2009 (which is where my data runs out). Further, Apple reported higher earnings in FQ1 2013 over the prior year, EVEN WITH an extra week in the prior year. If you factor out the extra week, they grew earnings by 7%. Apple hasn't reported FQ2 2013, but gross margins last March were an anomaly. Clearly, 47% wasn't going to repeat. Historically, Apple runs more toward a 40% average, which is far more sustainable. If Apple had reported 40% last March, AAPL would have reported $10.01 EPS, not $12.32. If Apple had known it was going to be punished so hard for putting up an extraordinary GM #, mgmt. probably regrets it. I'm quite comfortable that Apple will best $10.01 next Tuesday. I don't expect Wall Street to make such distinctions, but we should be better than that here. The RATE of earnings growth has certainly slowed, which is probably what you intended. Mercel, your very insightful post made me so happy I nearly cried.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 10:04:33 GMT -8
The RATE of earnings growth has certainly slowed, which is probably what you intended. I thought my post was clear, but yes, I'm talking about the rate of earnings growth. I agree with you about the extra week and big GM numbers for FYQ212. But the bottom line is that the days of Apple showing EPS growth of 20%-40% are gone. I disagree. If earnings (expressed as EPS) are the result of Revenue multiplied by GM% (deducting other less significant items), then once beyond the compare to aberrant GM% periods (FQ1/12, FQ2/12, FQ3/12) we will begin to see EPS growth of 20% once again, and that's BEFORE Apple ups the ante with new product categories. There's a reason WS repeatedly describes AAPL as a 2nd half story. That reason has little to do with new products.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 20, 2013 10:05:01 GMT -8
Not necessarily. I would expect the iWatch to get bigger, and the holiday quarter with no shortages in any products combined with 41% margin will give us at least 15% eps growth YOY. No chance if a new iPhone comes in July will we get 15% eps growth in January. No chance a new iPhone comes in July anyways. I'm thinking and hoping for mid to late August.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 10:09:48 GMT -8
You want to see how Apple shows 40% growth? It is quite simple. We will need to make some assumptions about future unit numbers, but with enough historical data those assumptions should be realistic. In the 4th quarter last year Apple reported eps of 8.67 with GM at 40, iPhone 27 million, iPad 14 million. If Apple introduces a new iPhone and iWatch in July, iPads and Macs in August, iPods in Sept, we could see the following numbers for 4th quarter. iPhones 41.6 million, iWatch 6 million at $350 each, iPads 25.5 million, Macs at 4.9 million, iPods at 7.4 million. GM at 39.5 We get 12.29 for eps. I'm not at all comfortable with 40% earnings growth, and wouldn't use your example, but I do agree with your reasoning.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 10:20:14 GMT -8
But even if 20% growth is behind us, does a company growing 10% with a likely September quarter closer to 15 to 20%, paying a 2.4% dividend deserve a historic P/E of 9 and, using my assumptions, a future P/E of 7.5? Reality has been thrown in the trash can somewhere along here....pick any other tech company, hardware, software, peripherals.....MSFT,INTC,GOOG,SNDK,ORCL,......they are priced for more growth opportunity than AAPL. Yes, they are. The big difference between them and Apple, is that none of those firms missed market expectations 3 quarters in a row. AAPL's biggest problem today is the perception by the 35% on investors whose analysis of Apple/AAPL is shallow and heavily influenced by those of dubious motives. When we get past the FQ1/12, FQ2/12, FQ3/12 compare, and have earnings exceeding market expectations once again, forecasting for that 35% will become much easier. Their confidence to buy (vs sell on the slightest of unsubstantiated rumor) will return. Funny thing though, their 35% ownership of AAPL will be reduced to 30% when the Institutions (that preceded them in selling) return (before them).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 10:25:11 GMT -8
I would expect the iWatch to get bigger, and the holiday quarter with no shortages in any products combined with 41% margin will give us at least 15% eps growth YOY. iWatch, what iWatch? I missed Apple's announcement. When does it start shipping?
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Post by appledoc on Apr 20, 2013 10:57:42 GMT -8
Justifying EPS contraction by blaming it on unsustainable quarters of GM of the past is insane. Guess what? The ride to 705 was based in part on those massive GMs that Apple was churning out.
Given what you're saying, 705 must have been fundamentally wrong because of unreasonable future EPS growth expectations secondary to unreasonable GM expectations. The quarters should have been treated as abberrtions and not cause for the rocket ship to takeoff.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2013 11:39:01 GMT -8
Justifying EPS contraction by blaming it on unsustainable quarters of GM of the past is insane. Guess what? The ride to 705 was based in part on those massive GMs that Apple was churning out. Given what you're saying, 705 must have been fundamentally wrong because of unreasonable future EPS growth expectations secondary to unreasonable GM expectations. The quarters should have been treated as abberrtions and not cause for the rocket ship to takeoff. Those 'aberrant' GMs may have been the fuel for AAPL's takeoff, but the pricing was justified for many other reasons, not the least of which was Apple's pre-aberrant margins, revenue growth, and dominance of two industries.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 20, 2013 11:57:03 GMT -8
Actually earnings are growing. Earnings for FQ2/2012 were a one time anomaly (7 points above historic average). This year Apple is going to report historic average. If you normalize that one time aberration, this year's earnings would represent YoY growth. This is the single greatest mistake investors are making with regards to this year's performance vs last year. I'll guarantee you the Institutions aren't making that mistake, and are just biding their time to let retail sentiment nosedive even further (courtesy crap reporting by CNBC's idiot talking heads) to pick even cheaper shares, before the market catches on. Modified to add:Just read Mercel's post on the subject. Wiping away a tear I am. You are right, but the fact is that " one time aberration" must also considered on the way up to $700. Nobody here, and I mean nobody, pointed to the fact that the EPS of $44 was an aberration due to exceptional GMs, until it was far too late. Instead, most of us were complaining that at EPS of $44 the stock was still undervalued at $700. I believe Andy Zaky projected a FY2013 EPS of around $60! At the time, he was among the most respected of AAPL analysts. How could he be so wrong? Because he didn't see the warning signs that are now so clear in hindsight. Maybe I simply missed it, but I don't recall a single discussion about normalizing EPS to Apple's historic GMs and determining a normalized P/E or price or anything of the sort. Can't have it both ways. Due to the one time aberration, we either overvalued APPL at the top or are overvaluing it at the bottom. Also, iWatch at $350?! More than an iPad Mini?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 20, 2013 12:16:24 GMT -8
Total fail, tuffett, right?
Considering that iWatch is a pipe dream and only in the rumor phase.
I would also add: "No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame." And why would anyone drive a Tesla when they can drive a Prius. And why would anyone buy a Fiat 500 when they can get a Hyundai with more space, standard power and close-enough fuel economy.
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