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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 7:42:20 GMT -8
IMO, cash and other tangible assets provide a floor in share price. I don't know the breakdown, but I would wager that Apple's cash, physical assets, patents and brand name alone are worth close to the $366B market cap WS has assigned us. That would put absolutely zero value on the future, which would be absurd even in the most bearish of views. That cash pile is no longer contributing to a floor, since it's basically just sitting there. The buyback program's reach is just slightly better than trivial. The dividend is only now appealing because of how far we've fallen. Something needs to be done with that cash to support the share price, and it needs to be done soon. And yes, I fully agree that concerns over future earnings are weighing is down too. But there is ZERO doubt in my mind that had a cash plan been announced back in December, we never would have come close to breaching $400. Typically, the companies valued based on cash and tangible assets alone are companies that are going out of business. Going concerns are valued more for their future streams of income, and if they have lots of cash, how they plan on using that cash to increase income. Right now, a buyback is the best use of that cash that I can see. Perhaps in a few weeks we get an announcement of $40-50B buyback? seekingalpha.com/article/1356771-apple-is-where-the-value-is-at?source=email_rt_article_readmore
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 7:56:38 GMT -8
In addition to beating this exact same drum here, I have been emailing PED on the subject since very early this month. Nice to see his article matching the points I covered with him. Oh, he got my revenue estimate wrong in this article (but correct in the original revenue article). My revenue estimate at $45.150 is just $10MM less than Ovi's.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 7:59:24 GMT -8
It's unfortunate that some of these independents are still included.
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Post by sponge on Apr 21, 2013 8:28:02 GMT -8
In addition to beating this exact same drum here, I have been emailing PED on the subject since very early this month. Nice to see his article matching the points I covered with him. Oh, he got my revenue estimate wrong in this article (but correct in the original revenue article). My revenue estimate at $45.150 is just $10MM less than Ovi's. I noticed that and was going to ask you about it. I also noticed he listed me as independent. I guess I have been officially kicked out of Braeburn.
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Post by applemuncher on Apr 21, 2013 8:31:40 GMT -8
Typically, the companies valued based on cash and tangible assets alone are companies that are going out of business. Going concerns are valued more for their future streams of income, and if they have lots of cash, how they plan on using that cash to increase income. Right now, a buyback is the best use of that cash that I can see. Perhaps in a few weeks we get an announcement of $40-50B buyback? seekingalpha.com/article/1356771-apple-is-where-the-value-is-at?source=email_rt_article_readmoreMy 6th grade English teacher would not have been happy with that title.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 8:39:52 GMT -8
In addition to beating this exact same drum here, I have been emailing PED on the subject since very early this month. Nice to see his article matching the points I covered with him. Oh, he got my revenue estimate wrong in this article (but correct in the original revenue article). My revenue estimate at $45.150 is just $10MM less than Ovi's. I noticed that and was going to ask you about it. I also noticed he listed me as independent. I guess I have been officially kicked out of Braeburn. If my memory serves correctly, you were listed as Braeburn in his last article. I might look it up to see. BTW, getting "kicked out" of Braeburn is not a bad thing, IMO. I quit Braeburn several months ago. As much as the noise (such as it is) here irritates, its much worse over there. Funny thing is that Robert Leitao (founder of Braeburn) doesn't claim membership in these articles. I've always wondered about that.
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Post by sponge on Apr 21, 2013 8:43:03 GMT -8
Talked to Philip and Robert requested the change. Oh well. When you and I are correct we will get all the credit. I have never felt more certain about my numbers.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Apr 21, 2013 9:02:35 GMT -8
One is guessing 48B in sales. There's a better chance I'll wake up in bed next to Shu Qi on Wednesday morning then THAT happening. To allow us to more clearly relate probability, could you tell us where you're going on Tuesday night?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 9:06:45 GMT -8
One is guessing 48B in sales. There's a better chance I'll wake up in bed next to Shu Qi on Wednesday morning then THAT happening. To allow us to more clearly relate probability, could you tell us where you're going on Tuesday night? Good one. Don't worry, if there's a booty call from China, I'll let you know...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 21, 2013 9:14:50 GMT -8
Talked to Philip and Robert requested the change. Oh well. When you and I are correct we will get all the credit. I have never felt more certain about my numbers. Tongue in cheek, I hope. How can you feel certain about those numbers....
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 9:15:24 GMT -8
What requirements exist to get your estimates posted by PED?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 9:28:15 GMT -8
What requirements exist to get your estimates posted by PED? Basically anyone who can fog a mirror...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 9:33:21 GMT -8
Talked to Philip and Robert requested the change. Oh well. When you and I are correct we will get all the credit. I have never felt more certain about my numbers. Tongue in cheek, I hope. How can you feel certain about those numbers.... You doubt the man behind the curtain? Don't be fooled, he's only known as Spongie here. The inside money on Wall Street calls him "The Oracle" Some of you will have to excuse me, but the only way I can feel better about losing money is indulging lame attempts at humor. I'll try to dial it back and hope it will all be a forgotten impulse Tuesday AH.
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Post by sponge on Apr 21, 2013 9:33:57 GMT -8
What requirements exist to get your estimates posted by PED? Well it started when we were all part of the original AFB a few years ago. Then Braburn Group became the defacto group for estimates. I think some of us were allowed to post from the original group. You can email Philip and ask him. Mercel I am certain about my numbers because I followed historical growth rates. What will throw me off is manufacturing and supply. Last quarter I looked at my numbers and I would have been much closer if Apple had enough iPhone 4, 5, IPad Mini, and iMacs, I would have been off by about less then half a billion in revenue. I also agree with Gregg about PO guidance. It is more conservative. He and I reached similar numbers but from different angles.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 21, 2013 9:35:42 GMT -8
watch this video VERY CAREFULLY for the surprise!
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Post by sponge on Apr 21, 2013 9:46:15 GMT -8
LOL art
Mercel
Keep the humor going. It is the only thing left to keep us sane and this crazy WS game.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 10:18:58 GMT -8
I have never felt more certain about my numbers. Tongue in cheek, I hope. How can you feel certain about those numbers.... Because he talked to me about them first.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 10:24:41 GMT -8
What requirements exist to get your estimates posted by PED? There are none that I'm aware of. It all started when Robert Leitao (and the rest of us) frequented The Mac Observer. Robert started the Braeburn Group and the rest of us left The Mac Observer after a spat with management. LovemyiPad started this forum, and the refugees from TMO happily moved here. From here those that contributed to PED's quarterly survey continued to do so. Generally, someone here posts that PED is once again requesting estimates, with a link. After you have posted PED will email you with future requests.
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Post by mace on Apr 21, 2013 10:34:57 GMT -8
Something needs to be done with that cash to support the share price, and it needs to be done soon. What is the consequence of not doing so? Apple would bankrupt? Apple would be taken private? Apple would be bought over by Samsung? Traders who long would go belly up? Traders who short would be very rich?
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 10:47:54 GMT -8
Something needs to be done with that cash to support the share price, and it needs to be done soon. What is the consequence of not doing so? Apple would bankrupt? Apple would be taken private? Apple would be bought over by Samsung? Traders who long would go belly up? Traders who short would be very rich? Obviously none of those. But hey, if Apple just wants to continue to use it's cash in the least effective way possible, I'm sure they'll continue to drive away current shareholders like myself.
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Post by sponge on Apr 21, 2013 11:07:22 GMT -8
Tongue in cheek, I hope. How can you feel certain about those numbers.... Because he talked to me about them first. You confused. You talked to me first.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 11:16:43 GMT -8
Because he talked to me about them first. You confused. You talked to me first. Just curious, but has anyone ever seen Sponge and Gregg together at the same time? ;D
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Post by mace on Apr 21, 2013 11:34:10 GMT -8
... if Apple just wants to continue to use it's cash in the least effective way possible, I'm sure they'll continue to drive away current shareholders like myself. Buyers are on strike till evidence of a bottom. There are many type of investors, yours is one type. The other type is waiting.
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Post by mace on Apr 21, 2013 11:36:42 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 11:36:54 GMT -8
... if Apple just wants to continue to use it's cash in the least effective way possible, I'm sure they'll continue to drive away current shareholders like myself. Buyers are on strike till evidence of a bottom. There are many type of investors, yours is one type. The other type is waiting. Exactly right, but not for much longer IMO.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 11:38:49 GMT -8
Wow, really? Do you have a phone number? You might be surprised to read this, but asian chicks dig me... ;D
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 21, 2013 11:38:49 GMT -8
You confused. You talked to me first. Just curious, but has anyone ever seen Sponge and Gregg together at the same time? ;D It's an alternate universe thing. We get them on Star Trek all the time. Gregg is the Alpha, Sponge the Omega. If they occupy the same physical ( non cyber) space... Bloooey
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 11:40:21 GMT -8
Just curious, but has anyone ever seen Sponge and Gregg together at the same time? ;D It's an alternate universe thing. We get them on Star Trek all the time. Gregg is the Alpha, Sponge the Omega. If they occupy the same physical ( non cyber) space... Bloooey LOL. Thank God for the alternative universe then... (j/k).
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 21, 2013 11:40:28 GMT -8
Wow, really? Do you have a phone number? You might be surprised to read this, but asian chicks dig me... ;D . I am surprised to read that. You always seemed to have Ballmerish appeal .,,
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 12:06:42 GMT -8
The more certain you are in your estimations, the more accountable you'll be if you turn out wrong.
So I hope it turns out well.
(I just post my humble home game estimates to AFB to participate in discussions, to learn, to grow, because I feel as an AAPL trader/investor I need to better understand the company. Never as anything authoritative.)
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