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Post by artman1033 on Apr 24, 2013 1:38:12 GMT -8
Children! CHILDREN! Please quiet down! If you are good, I MAY bring you new CATEGORIES.TIM: "We will continue to focus on the long-term, and we remain very optimistic about our future. We are participating on large and growing markets. We see great opportunities in front of us, particularly given the long-term prospects of the smartphone and tablet market, the strength of our incredible ecosystem, which we plan to continue to augment with new services, our plans for expanded distribution, and the potential of exciting new product categories."
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Apr 24, 2013 1:56:56 GMT -8
Despite several quarters of slowing growth, consumer electronics in the 21st century is still Apple's game to lose.
AAPL's current PE fully bakes in the downside risks without giving any credit to the upside opportunities. I'm a buyer.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 24, 2013 2:05:07 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 24, 2013 2:34:29 GMT -8
Woke up this morning to someone referring to AAPL as nothing more than a gadget maker this morning. This will need to play out a bit ... sell in may ... enjoy the summer ... nibble some time in late summer. Step away kids...nothing to see here. PS JPM this morning lower PT: With Apple, we reiterate our Overweight rating but lower our Dec-13 price target to $545, versus $725 previously.
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Apr 24, 2013 2:47:22 GMT -8
Now that Apple's margins are returning closer to historical norms, what is the best explanation for the huge blip in margins last year?
What made the iPhone 4S so much more of a catalyst than the iPhone 5?
Perhaps the answer is that Samsung had a better competitive product against the iPhone 5.
But is the real reason for the blip that last fiscal year was the first holiday season the iPhone was available on Verizon, and the pent up demand by the customers of this key fully-subsidizing carrier gave the 4S a unique one-time boost that is making this years' numbers challenging to compare against?
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 24, 2013 2:48:05 GMT -8
Shares outstanding. 940,692,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 19, 2012.939,058,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of January 11, 2013938,649,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of April 12, 2013945,355,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of September 29, 2012947,217,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of December 29, 2012946,035,000 Diluted shares of common stock outstanding as of March 30, 2013
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 2:54:40 GMT -8
Shares outstanding. 940,692,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 19, 2012.939,058,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of January 11, 2013938,649,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of April 12, 2013 Need to use the diluted numbers.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 2:58:28 GMT -8
New product categories are exciting, but again, this is a wait and see game still. No new product categories in the fall? When are the new iPhone, iPad mini, iPad and Mac lines going to release? Is that going to be the fall too, and create a massive logjam just like last year?
I'd think most consumers like to stagger their purchases like myself. Apple used to do that for us. But hey, maybe we'll get an event invite this week and something new will come out in May.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 3:00:59 GMT -8
Woke up this morning to someone referring to AAPL as nothing more than a gadget maker this morning. This will need to play out a bit ... sell in may ... enjoy the summer ... nibble some time in late summer. Step away kids...nothing to see here. PS JPM this morning lower PT: With Apple, we reiterate our Overweight rating but lower our Dec-13 price target to $545, versus $725 previously.Not surprising. Expect more cuts. I wouldn't be placing bets on a price target 35% away in just 8 months.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 24, 2013 3:07:43 GMT -8
Woke up this morning to someone referring to AAPL as nothing more than a gadget maker this morning. This will need to play out a bit ... sell in may ... enjoy the summer ... nibble some time in late summer. Step away kids...nothing to see here. PS JPM this morning lower PT: With Apple, we reiterate our Overweight rating but lower our Dec-13 price target to $545, versus $725 previously.Not surprising. Expect more cuts. I wouldn't be placing bets on a price target 35% away in just 8 months. I've counted 10 analyst downgrades so far this morning.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 3:14:59 GMT -8
Not surprising. Expect more cuts. I wouldn't be placing bets on a price target 35% away in just 8 months. I've counted 10 analyst downgrades so far this morning. A good thing IMO. We're deep enough into the decline where these don't have a major effect on the daily movement of the stock anymore. Lower expectations = GOOD
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 3:16:36 GMT -8
Brian White talking iTV and low-priced iPhone again on CNBC. I don't think he ever gives up.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 24, 2013 3:17:21 GMT -8
Whilst the ASP for the iPad and iPhone have declined, by my calculations, the iPod ASP at $171 is the highest since Q3 2011 (iPod Touch sales?), whilst the Macintosh ASP of $1378 is the highest since Q2 2011.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 24, 2013 3:19:40 GMT -8
I've counted 10 analyst downgrades so far this morning. A good thing IMO. We're deep enough into the decline where these don't have a major effect on the daily movement of the stock anymore. Lower expectations = GOOD Completely agree with appledoc -- let's get it all out now. Everyone knows that the feeling of nausea is worse than just throwing up and getting it over with. One feels so much better once it is done and put behind us. I heard someone state yesterday (Gene Munster I believe) that although numbers had been lowered for the quarter, the expectations and numbers for June were still somewhat inflated on the sell side and that they would need to be adjusted downward. So let's just get it over with and move forward from here.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 3:30:09 GMT -8
I'll be dumping my remaining commons once I feel wave 4 of the ED is complete (see EW thread). Should be after the dividend is paid. Will revisit setting up a position in the future.
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Post by podboy on Apr 24, 2013 3:55:10 GMT -8
Getting ugly in PM. I just want out of this mess but my 2015 LEAPS already lost 3/4 of their value. Don't know what to do..
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Post by rob_london on Apr 24, 2013 3:58:49 GMT -8
Sprint sold 1.5 million iPhones in Q1, flat year on year.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2013 3:59:11 GMT -8
Well I couldn't keep away from this place for long, but I had to come back to at least say how happy I was with the implementation of the cash return plan yesterday, and the fact that it will be reviewed annually and highly likely increased. If this quiets the temper of some of the trolls around here ill probably stick around My major takeaways from yesterday's conference call: TC made it abundantly clear that the iPad mini introduction was a pivotal moment for Apple, with slightly lower GM% now to be expected, but he also made it very clear that on the bright side once the iPad mini launch anniversary comes around in Q1 we will see comparable gross margin rates for y-o-y comparisons. Apples steadily rising revenue in combination with a constantly reducing share count will lead to strong EPS growth from Q12014 onwards, with a steady 36-39% GM long term. One thing that wasn't said was the movement of the iPad 4 launch 6 months early. This is much of the cause of our distress with Q3 guidance - last year Q3 was the first full quarter of availability of the iPad 3, and apple shipped 17 million iPads with an ASP of $515. This year, if we are lucky we will see flat to small y-o-y growth in iPads, but with a lower ASP & GM%. The resetting of the annual refresh to the fall was a good thing, but in return we get this crappy one off y-o-y comparison. My updated full year estimates, taking isn't account the new GM expectations and likely average of approx 10 million shares cancelled each quarter: FY2013: $41-$42 FY2014: $52-$55 (not including any new product lines)
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 24, 2013 4:02:57 GMT -8
Getting ugly in PM. I just want out of this mess but my 2015 LEAPS already lost 3/4 of their value. Don't know what to do.. Whenever I find myself in similar situations, unsure whether to close an existing position (long or short), I consider closing 1/2. That way, I'm guaranteed to only 1/2 kick myself for whatever I didn't do -- even though I have no idea at the time which will be the regret, the action or the inaction. But to me, I don't like "all or nothing" propositions, so the 1/2 kick enables me to see the glass "half full" no matter what happens.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 4:07:09 GMT -8
Went to take a shower and we go from pretty much flat to down 3%?
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Post by appledoc on Apr 24, 2013 4:15:49 GMT -8
Hope someone else caught the comments just on CNBC over the downgrades and cash issue.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 24, 2013 4:15:58 GMT -8
Went to take a shower and we go from pretty much flat to down 3%? Looks like the media is broadcasting what was said earlier - NUMEROUS sell side analysts lowering PT and ratings. It's gonna be ugly - I think retail - at the very least - may be throwing in the towel. (again, IMHO) And yes, at least I did hear the cash and downgrade comments Kernan made on CNBC
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Post by lance on Apr 24, 2013 4:17:48 GMT -8
Officially Apple is a declining to no growth company for the next 6 months possibly long term with nothing coming. So I think you can expect the stock dip. Yeah the buyback and dividend will prevent Apple from collapsing, but when your products take too long to come out ex. iPhone 5 and next iPhone you lose momentum. Apple definitely will eventually come out with great products but he basically admitted in the call nothing is coming for 5-6 months. To me they basically guided to 7+ EPS no way I can justify buying a single share on that guidance.
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Post by qualitywte on Apr 24, 2013 4:18:35 GMT -8
Getting ugly in PM. I just want out of this mess but my 2015 LEAPS already lost 3/4 of their value. Don't know what to do.. Whenever I find myself in similar situations, unsure whether to close an existing position (long or short), I consider closing 1/2. That way, I'm guaranteed to only 1/2 kick myself for whatever I didn't do -- even though I have no idea at the time which will be the regret, the action or the inaction. But to me, I don't like "all or nothing" propositions, so the 1/2 kick enables me to see the glass "half full" no matter what happens. Thanks for your voice of reason. I'm glad I took your advice and bought some common at 420 level, then some at 390, now still have some dry powder to deploy if we tank below 390. One thing for sure is buying in at 375 or below seems to be a very good investment. Today and the coming days are going to be very interesting to watch the price movement. I suspect most of the buying/selling yesterday and today was fear/greed driven. Let's see how it goes when rational people look at this company for what it is, still growing = still stacking up cash, sharing the cash with shareholders, etc. I just don't see much real downside risk after the ER fluctuation is over.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 24, 2013 4:23:16 GMT -8
Welcome back, appledoc and burgess!
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Post by podboy on Apr 24, 2013 4:26:54 GMT -8
Welcome back, appledoc and burgess! +1
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Post by rob_london on Apr 24, 2013 4:28:32 GMT -8
Some of the criticisms of the Galaxy S4 in The Verge's review: "It makes an awful first impression, slippery and slimy and simply unpleasant in your hand." "Samsung's handset feels like an overpowered children’s toy" "many of the Phone menus and screens look cartoonishly terrible, with huge icons and ugly images." www.theverge.com
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Post by mtjs on Apr 24, 2013 4:30:13 GMT -8
Went to take a shower and we go from pretty much flat to down 3%? Can you ... unshower ? thanks.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 24, 2013 4:37:07 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Apr 24, 2013 4:42:28 GMT -8
Schiller: "We can’t wait to get new versions of iOS and OS X into their hands at WWDC.”
First confirmation that there actually will be new releases of the operating systems, other than just rumours.
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