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Post by elmar on Sept 25, 2012 6:02:39 GMT -8
Just received a SMS from Apple: Good news: My iPhone will already arrive tomorrow instead of early October as it said till yesterday ;D I have ordered it at the first day in Germany, but only somewhat later in the morning.
So I guess they are somewhat rescheduling their supplies.
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Post by davidcv100 on Sept 25, 2012 6:15:26 GMT -8
"Jefferies said its channel checks indicate that the addition of Sony (SNE) to the list of in-cell display suppliers to Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 5 has alleviated what had been the main supply bottleneck. The firm's analysis suggests demand for iPhone 5 will be strong and it sees numerous catalysts over the next couple months for Apple shares to perform well. Jefferies keeps a Buy rating on Apple with a $900 price target."
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Post by aapltrader99 on Sept 25, 2012 6:34:11 GMT -8
I know someone here has the answer ... can anyone tell me the exact date FQ4 ends? I seem to recall reading somewhere that it was Sept 28. TIA From investor.apple.com/faq.cfm?FaqSetID=3What is Apple's fiscal year? Apple's fiscal year 2012 runs from September 25, 2011 through September 29, 2012.I believe Apple will announce the earnings release date on Monday after 4:00 PM Eastern at investor.apple.com/I believe that date will be the 16th. ( Don't hold me to that date. It is early in the day. I have not had enough coffee) Here is timeline for the past several quarters earnings date compared to the end of quarter date: July 24, 2012 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday, June 30th). 16 trading days from end of quarter to earnings. April 24, 2012 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday, March 31st). 16 trading days from end of quarter to earnings. Jan 24, 2012 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday, Dec 31). 15 trading days from end of quarter to earnings. Oct 18, 2011 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday Sep 24th). 17 trading days from end of quarter to earnings. July 19, 2011 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday June 25th). 16 trading days from end of quarter to earnings. April 20, 2011 earnings date (quarter ended Saturday, March 26th). 16 trading days from end of quarter to earnings. 18 trading days from end of quarter to earnings. The shortest time frame above is 15 trading days after the quarter ends with 16 being the "norm". 15 trading days is Friday, Oct 19th. My guess for earnings would be Monday the 22nd or Tuesday the 23rd. We will know the official date on Monday or Tuesday next week as Apple releases it the first or second trading day after the quarter ends.
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Post by flyonthewall on Sept 25, 2012 6:45:14 GMT -8
Clear, short article on why the 5 million iPhone number "were anything but soft." Brian White - Topeka CapitalFORTUNE -- Topeka Capital's Brian White, whose $1,111 price target for Apple (AAPL) is the highest we've seen from a mainstream analyst, issued a note Tuesday offering four reasons the market (which at one point Monday had knocked $16 billion off Apple's market cap) misread the significance of the 5 million iPhones sold last weekend.
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Post by sponge on Sept 25, 2012 7:02:19 GMT -8
Just received a SMS from Apple: Good news: My iPhone will already arrive tomorrow instead of early October as it said till yesterday ;D I have ordered it at the first day in Germany, but only somewhat later in the morning. So I guess they are somewhat rescheduling their supplies. Good Morning Boys and Girls Elmar you made me check my iPhone 5 tracking and discovered that I will get mine today as well. Buy LEAPS and AAPL and you will thank me in one year and then do it again next year and you will thank me for making you rich. ;D
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Post by podboy on Sept 25, 2012 7:13:56 GMT -8
Sponge, what strike point are u using for the 1 year LEAPS?
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Post by sponge on Sept 25, 2012 7:18:59 GMT -8
Sponge, what strike point are u using for the 1 year LEAPS? I own 800's, 960's, and 1000's. I don't think WS has any idea how big aapl is about to get. When people camp out for a $200 iPhone 5 years later and Apple stores run out of 4S, while selling a boat load of iPHone 4 for free, this company is accelerating growth in a weak economy.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 25, 2012 7:25:58 GMT -8
Just got 2 of my 3 iPhones delivered. My scheduled date was due to be Friday, Sept 28th. They seem to be trying to get them out....under-promising and over-delivering hopefully.
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Post by roni on Sept 25, 2012 7:32:24 GMT -8
Sponge, what strike point are u using for the 1 year LEAPS? I own 800's, 960's, and 1000's. I don't think WS has any idea how big aapl is about to get. When people camp out for a $200 iPhone 5 years later and Apple stores run out of 4S, while selling a boat load of iPHone 4 for free, this company is accelerating growth in a weak economy. I think buying that far out of the money is too risky. I own Jan 2014 $600's If I were buying today, $800 would be the very farthest out of the money I would go. $960's and $1,000's are in nosebleed territory and have a higher risk of not being in the money at expiration, must less having enough intrinsic value to cover the cost of the options.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 7:32:33 GMT -8
I have some orders in for Jan 15 900/850 Bull Call Spreads...hoping to get it for $11.50 but not sure it'll happen, the difference between Bid and Ask is so high with LEAPS that far out.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 7:40:38 GMT -8
Traders, see chart in Chart Stuff thread...
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 7:45:17 GMT -8
Only my WAG...but I think the only way to the next *substantial* leg up in our rally involves a pullback to at least 670. That would work off all the bearish divergences, give us a slingshot, etc. etc.
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 25, 2012 7:55:26 GMT -8
Only my WAG...but I think the only way to the next *substantial* leg up in our rally involves a pullback to at least 670. That would work off all the bearish divergences, give us a slingshot, etc. etc. I think so too, iPad. Even if we don't see 670, a fall to 675-680 is WTF enough to back up the truck.
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Post by trespif on Sept 25, 2012 7:57:00 GMT -8
I agree there will probably be a pullback, likely this week. Bring it on, ready to buy! And if we drop more later to the 650 range, we can buy more.
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Post by jumar on Sept 25, 2012 8:08:43 GMT -8
I would have appreciated better integration across iOS devices, e.g. airplay. I would like to be able to play my iPhone iTunes library through my Apple TV (surround sound system) rather than firing up the computer... You can do this! I've been doing that on my old iPhone 4 since iOS 5. They just have to be on the same wi-fi network.
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Post by stevereel on Sept 25, 2012 8:14:52 GMT -8
I think buying that far out of the money is too risky. I own Jan 2014 $600's If I were buying today, $800 would be the very farthest out of the money I would go. $960's and $1,000's are in nosebleed territory and have a higher risk of not being in the money at expiration, must less having enough intrinsic value to cover the cost of the options. Agree 100%. I buy at the money leaps during WTF sales. You get multiple opportunities every year. Currently holding Jan13 570s, 600s, 610s, and 630s. All deep green and happy. Whenever I try a short term trade I end up breaking even or in the hole. Still working on patience and disipline.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 25, 2012 8:24:15 GMT -8
Only my WAG...but I think the only way to the next *substantial* leg up in our rally involves a pullback to at least 670. That would work off all the bearish divergences, give us a slingshot, etc. etc. I think so too, iPad. Even if we don't see 670, a fall to 675-680 is WTF enough to back up the truck. I am a little over a year into trading options, and my post consistent mistake has been entering into positions during times of extreme positive sentiment. Like last week. So this time I am staying greater than 50% cash until one of these pull backs hit. I agree that we are going to get one, either pre-earnings, or after the street craps all over earnings, unless they are spectacular. If we get a serious retreat before earnings, then I expect it will insulate us from further damage if we get a good, but not great quarter.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 8:34:03 GMT -8
I think so too, iPad. Even if we don't see 670, a fall to 675-680 is WTF enough to back up the truck. I am a little over a year into trading options, and my post consistent mistake has been entering into positions during times of extreme positive sentiment. Like last week. So this time I am staying greater than 50% cash until one of these pull backs hit. I agree that we are going to get one, either pre-earnings, or after the street craps all over earnings, unless they are spectacular. If we get a serious retreat before earnings, then I expect it will insulate us from further damage if we get a good, but not great quarter. Lstream, I read Random Walk (and liked it!), so will you take a teeny tiny peek at my chart?
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Post by Lstream on Sept 25, 2012 8:40:08 GMT -8
Lstream, I read Random Walk (and liked it!), so will you take a teeny tiny peek at my chart? OK, but only cuz you asked so nice.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 8:48:04 GMT -8
Good morning boys and girls! Sorry sponge I'm taking your call sign. I noticed that the overwhelming majority here are option players with very few trading common stock. I for one am new to the market and so far only buy common. Right now I own a small amount (120 shares) which is chump change for many of you, but I'm learning. I'm only 26 and have no debt, wife, and have a good job so I have the opportunity to undertake more volatile positions. I am not interested in weeklies or monthlies, but LEAPS. From what I understand LEAPS are a nice halfway house between common and typical options (without the dividend). Is options express a good site to trade LEAPS? Do most of you wait for a pull back to initiate your option positions, or does it not matter as much with LEAPS? Thanks for your time podboy I have using OX for 8+ years, and have helped about forty people open an account there. I find their site easy to navigate with orders filled just as fast as anywhere else.
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Post by Plato on Sept 25, 2012 8:53:07 GMT -8
Only my WAG...but I think the only way to the next *substantial* leg up in our rally involves a pullback to at least 670. That would work off all the bearish divergences, give us a slingshot, etc. etc. IMHO if we pull back down to 670ish, I think we will see 650ish. Reason for that is, every time we moved below the daily middle BB and didn't bounce off immediately, the stock made a run down to the lower BB before bouncing back. Just my 2 cents.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 8:54:04 GMT -8
Only my WAG...but I think the only way to the next *substantial* leg up in our rally involves a pullback to at least 670. That would work off all the bearish divergences, give us a slingshot, etc. etc. IMHO if we pull back down to 670ish, I think we will see 650ish. Reason for that is, every time we moved below the daily middle BB and didn't bounce off immediately, the stock made a run down to the lower BB before bouncing back. Just my 2 cents. Excellent point! Now, come play if you can!!!! I'm at the playground for another 30 min...then taking my doggie to physical therapy.
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Post by Plato on Sept 25, 2012 8:55:32 GMT -8
IMHO if we pull back down to 670ish, I think we will see 650ish. Reason for that is, every time we moved below the daily middle BB and didn't bounce off immediately, the stock made a run down to the lower BB before bouncing back. Just my 2 cents. Excellent point! Now, come play if you can!!!! I'm at the playground for another 30 min...then taking my doggie to physical therapy. OK - so who gets the physical therapy you said?? ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 9:14:01 GMT -8
OK - so who gets the physical therapy you said?? ;D Heehee! Actually, change of plans...I'll be there until 4! The underwater treadmill is being serviced, so they called to reschedule!
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Post by Plato on Sept 25, 2012 9:18:48 GMT -8
OK - so who gets the physical therapy you said?? ;D Heehee! Actually, change of plans...I'll be there until 4! The underwater treadmill is being serviced, so they called to reschedule! I did send you a PM
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Post by moltenfire on Sept 25, 2012 9:19:58 GMT -8
Does anyone get the feeling that WS is starting to "get" the AAPL story of growth that we see? Even with all the FUD coming out this week, about the 5 mil weekend number, Maps, etc., we have WS analysts coming out in the media regularly to explain them.
And we have price targets of $900s and $1000s in 12 months, which have become far far more optimistic than I'm used to from WS. In fact, those price targets may be setting AAPL up to fail, because in my conservative scenarios I only expect AAPL to be ~$930 by Jan 2014.
And we have the pricing for Jan 2015 calls which appears to have opened quite high. As an example: AAPL common was at 410 on Sept 21, 2011. $550 Jan 2014s, which were $140 OTM at that time, were going for ~$35. On Sept 21, 2012, AAPL common was at $700, but $850 Jan 2015s, which were $150 OTM, were going for ~$84.
Bottom line, I think the broader market and WS are starting to "get" the AAPL rates of growth that we'd all previously laughed at WS for at not getting. The easy money, for example in May 2011 when Jan 2013 $500 calls were going for $15.20 each (for an easy 12 bagger now), may be gone.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 25, 2012 9:39:08 GMT -8
Not that it matters but soon we will be $100 lower than GOOG....such a travesty....awful.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 25, 2012 9:50:43 GMT -8
Not that it matters but soon we will be $100 lower than GOOG....such a travesty....awful. This will make you feel better. RIM is up 5% today.
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Post by burtonair on Sept 25, 2012 9:59:23 GMT -8
The easy money, for example in May 2011 when Jan 2013 $500 calls were going for $15.20 each (for an easy 12 bagger now), may be gone. Doing some quick math here, so my #s may be off, but I think, if you still believe that APPL's stock appreciation will continue at a similar pace as in the last year, then there is still some easy money out there event at today's rate. Using similar #s to you in my Leap purchases, I bought Jan 2013 $500 calls for $17.60 in April, 2011 when AAPL was at $344.56 (about half what it is now). If you think AAPL will double again prior to Jan 2014, that would put AAPLE at $1360. You can pick up Jan 2014 $900 calls TODAY for ~$31. That would give you a 14+ bagger. So I think deals are still there if you don't get distracted by the large numbers.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 25, 2012 10:08:31 GMT -8
I think we should look at these on a percentage basis, instead of a points basis. In 2011, the 2014 calls you reference were trading 34% out of the money, at a premium of $35. The 2015 calls you reference are trading only 21.4% out of the money, so it makes sense for their premium to be higher ($84).
An 2015 call today that would be equivalent to the 2011 play you mentioned would be the 2015 920s, which are trading 34% out of the money as of today's price. The 920s are going for about $61. So that still looks like the calls are "overpriced" today compared to two years ago ($34)
But the last piece to take into consideration is the point change vs. percentage change of appreciation of AAPL. For example, at 550, for that option to go $100 in the money, AAPL needs to rise 18%. But at 920, for that option to go $100 into the money, AAPL needs to rise only 10.8%. So it makes sense for options, as AAPL goes ever higher in price, to become more expensive because they are delivering more value on a points basis.
That's how I look at this stuff anyway. Would be happy to hear any alternate opinions.
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