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Post by incorrigible on Sept 25, 2012 10:58:46 GMT -8
Into the shitter now. Down over $9.00
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 25, 2012 11:00:17 GMT -8
Pain could be our friend ths week:
680 3,337 11,945
3X as many puts as calls at 680.
685 5,203 9,906 690 10,421 9,369 695 8,009 5,533 700 17,424 6,666
If we get a bunch of put buyers on this dip at 685-695, that could really help.
Buy the dip.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 25, 2012 11:01:18 GMT -8
I guess WTF sale is in process.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 11:02:38 GMT -8
Wow, some market participants/EOs wanna shake that AAPL tree.
For once, I think I maybe made HALF of the right call.
The other half is getting back in the game for an upswing.
Hang in there, people. Like Ensign likes to say, plan your trade, trade your plan.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 11:04:52 GMT -8
I'd hate to know what you'd call FB yesterday. Price action isn't fun, but neither is it disastrous.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 25, 2012 11:04:52 GMT -8
Wow, some market participants/EOs wanna shake that AAPL tree. For once, I think I maybe made HALF of the right call. The other half is getting back in the game for an upswing. Hang in there, people. Like Ensign likes to say, plan your trade, trade your plan. Concerted effort to do so. It stopped at 3pm on dot.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 11:06:33 GMT -8
I think so too, iPad. Even if we don't see 670, a fall to 675-680 is WTF enough to back up the truck. I am a little over a year into trading options, and my post consistent mistake has been entering into positions during times of extreme positive sentiment. Like last week. So this time I am staying greater than 50% cash until one of these pull backs hit. I agree that we are going to get one, either pre-earnings, or after the street craps all over earnings, unless they are spectacular. If we get a serious retreat before earnings, then I expect it will insulate us from further damage if we get a good, but not great quarter. My biggest mistake ever was holding less than 50% cash in reserve. I have evolved to holding 2/3s cash. Without dry powder you have zero flexibility. Case in point (I have done this twice in just the last month): On Friday I bought (example) a Weekly $630/$635 Call Spread at $2.50. AAPL is at $630. On Monday AAPL drops $10 - $15 (sound familiar) putting my original investment at risk. My solution? I load up on additional Spreads (ATM $620/$625) sufficient that the profit covers the EXPENSE of my original purchase. Then, on any kind of rally I sell my original investment. Because the second purchase covers the cost of my first purchase, whatever I sell the first investment for is net profit. I did this yesterday and am currently green with the second investment. Oh, they are $685/$690s, down from $700/$705s.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 25, 2012 11:13:17 GMT -8
Wow, some market participants/EOs wanna shake that AAPL tree. For once, I think I maybe made HALF of the right call. The other half is getting back in the game for an upswing. Hang in there, people. Like Ensign likes to say, plan your trade, trade your plan. Concerted effort to do so. It stopped at 3pm on dot. or perhaps the mobs in Spain?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 25, 2012 11:13:22 GMT -8
I cannot emphasize this enough, buy the F'n dip. People selling AAPL on a dip and buying GOOG at ATH's are idiots.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 11:14:13 GMT -8
Pain could be our friend ths week: 680 3,337 11,945 3X as many puts as calls at 680. 685 5,203 9,906 690 10,421 9,369 695 8,009 5,533 700 17,424 6,666 If we get a bunch of put buyers on this dip at 685-695, that could really help. Buy the dip. Yep, and nearly 3X the Calls at $700 as opposed to Puts. Total Put/Call ratio heavily favors Calls. All I need is a Close above $690. That's $10 less than last Friday. Since July earnings AAPL has been going up (on average) 2.1% Week over Week.
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Post by nkmho on Sept 25, 2012 11:19:46 GMT -8
Yep, and nearly 3X the Calls at $700 as opposed to Puts. Total Put/Call ratio heavily favors Calls. All I need is a Close above $690. That's $10 less than last Friday. Since July earnings AAPL has been going up (on average) 2.1% Week over Week. Same here, I'm in the same boat as well and looking for $690.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 25, 2012 11:20:59 GMT -8
Uptrend officially broken.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 11:22:23 GMT -8
Market exposure relatively light since AAPL struggled at 690 yesterday. Kind of "convictionless" right now, which sucks. Do wish I'd bought LVS puts today.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 11:22:45 GMT -8
Uptrend officially broken. Definition, please?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 11:26:19 GMT -8
All I need is a Close above $690. That's $10 less than last Friday. Since July earnings AAPL has been going up (on average) 2.1% Week over Week. Well with that last "dip" AAPL's Weekly average move has dropped to 1.97%. Applying a negative of that number to last Friday's intraday low yields a low this Friday of $685, with an intraday high of $691. I'm tempted to buy more.
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Post by Apple II+ on Sept 25, 2012 11:28:51 GMT -8
Without dry powder you have zero flexibility. Cash is dry powder for shares. Shares are dry power for options.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 11:29:10 GMT -8
Seems a bit like a falling knife for now until I see a bounce on strong volume.
Countertrend play?
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 25, 2012 11:29:35 GMT -8
Uptrend officially broken. Definition, please? AAPL was staying above my uptrend line drawn from July 26 through Sept 12. Needed to hold 683/680. I am thinking we go sideways now. I have to believe we are going to get a relief bounce soon, but I am losing hope for this week. This is the week we were all expecting last week.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 11:30:19 GMT -8
Without dry powder you have zero flexibility. Cash is dry powder for shares. Shares are dry power for options. Depends on the strategy. My modest amount of AAPL core common is kind of locked up in a vault, so to speak. I would be VERY hesitant to use the common as rocket fuel. Trading shares, different story when I use them.
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Post by Apple II+ on Sept 25, 2012 11:31:54 GMT -8
I cannot emphasize this enough, buy the F'n dip. People selling AAPL on a dip and buying GOOG at ATH's are idiots. Agree on the idiots. But I'm not buying the dip. Too shallow IMO.
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Post by traitorjoe on Sept 25, 2012 11:36:32 GMT -8
Went to almost all cash and sold out all my April 2013 Core position with AAPL at $688 this morning.
Just bought 20 April $665s at the botton of this dip.
Not sure everyone else's thoughts - but am not ready to go back to all in at this level
1. Seen too many days in a row where Apple can pound down day after day for no reason - am going to wait until we start a day green and maintain green for at least 2 hours
2. The Spain situation as part of Euro disfunction combined with fiscal cliff and poor earnings pending takes away some of my Macro level confidence
Fully confident AAPL Holiday quarter earnings will be strong enough in the end to steamroll over all of this- just would like a better entry point
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 25, 2012 11:37:32 GMT -8
It really wouldn't be a MAJOR product release from Apple without a WTF selloff now would it ? We've seen this more times than I care to count .... patience and a good measure of perspective is in order here. Let the fools sell .... I'm happy to take their money as these prices will provide a nice slingshot soon enough. FYI, Just got a order confirmation from AT&T and my 3 iphone5's will not ship for another 21-28 days .... demand is STRONG and Apple will not lose sales to Android because of any delays ....
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 25, 2012 11:39:55 GMT -8
Patiently waiting for my Nov 720s to fill @ 12.05. It almost got there.
Also have an order for Feb 750s @ 17.05. If we fall further tomorrow these should get filled.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 25, 2012 11:40:07 GMT -8
That gap at 670 is just sitting there. Average volume so who knows.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 11:43:47 GMT -8
We'll just watch it closely. Next two watch levels for me are 676 (61.8% retrace of 656-705), and...uh...1 after 665 (38.2% retrace measuring from 603-705).
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Post by flyonthewall on Sept 25, 2012 11:54:29 GMT -8
Couldn't wait until the close. Had to buy a couple of 's before the close. Still have some dry powder if the downtrend continues. Power to the longs!
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 25, 2012 12:01:35 GMT -8
Having difficulty wrapping my head around how AAPL is behaving given the biggest product launch in history and how GOOG is laughing all the way to the bank both on share price and on the whole iMap issue. It's absolutely disheartening.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 12:04:37 GMT -8
Shrug it off, scale in, wait for the next buying opportunity, whatever.
Remember where AAPL started this year.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 25, 2012 12:08:15 GMT -8
Shrug it off, scale in, wait for the next buying opportunity, whatever. Remember where AAPL started this year. where is the next area of support?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 12:15:42 GMT -8
All I know are the levels I'm watching, and they might not be valid. There's that gap at 670 per MB (anyone have a chart of it?). I'm looking to see how AAPL fares around 665, but honestly, AAPL seems like it's in falling-knife mode. I don't think this selling pressure will ease off just yet.
At the same time iPad Air may be out there. So not sure if I'll hedge with AAPL BPSes.
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