|
Post by appledoc on May 5, 2013 7:52:56 GMT -8
Hey Doc - good luck on the marathon - I hope you crush it (and it doesn't crush you)! Hopefully you had a nice dish of pasta yesterday 3:49. 8 minute PR. I think this bodes well for AAPL. ;D
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on May 5, 2013 8:03:47 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 5, 2013 8:04:09 GMT -8
Way to go Doc....
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 5, 2013 8:10:02 GMT -8
Hey Doc - good luck on the marathon - I hope you crush it (and it doesn't crush you)! Hopefully you had a nice dish of pasta yesterday 3:49. 8 minute PR. I think this bodes well for AAPL. ;D WoW. Well done. You must be in perfect shape. I skipped kickboxing this morning.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2013 8:10:14 GMT -8
The only good times I know are Red's kind and zero-to-60. But I'll trust Red on this one... I'm warming to Apple's selling puts as it would be consistent with a share repurchase program. In other words, Apple wouldn't be betting against shareholders but with them. I'd be against it it Apple were taking derivative positions against the shareholder.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2013 8:11:53 GMT -8
3:49. 8 minute PR. I think this bodes well for AAPL. ;D WoW. Well done. You must be in perfect shape. I skipped kickboxing this morning. Doc is making us feel like slackers...I skipped Mt. Everest yesterday.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on May 5, 2013 8:25:31 GMT -8
Hey Doc - good luck on the marathon - I hope you crush it (and it doesn't crush you)! Hopefully you had a nice dish of pasta yesterday 3:49. 8 minute PR. I think this bodes well for AAPL. ;D HOORAY!!!!! Way to go!!!!!
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 5, 2013 8:28:44 GMT -8
Good analysis. The part I disagree with is dividend savings from buyback. Historically Apple has been issuing to employees 3 million shares on average per quarter since 2005. So the savings in dividend will be very minimal. The buyback is still more related to decreasing share dilution. I calculated only 5% decrease in float. Assuming Apple does not increase stock options. Which I think they will.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2013 8:47:05 GMT -8
WoW. Well done. You must be in perfect shape. I skipped kickboxing this morning. Doc is making us feel like slackers...I skipped Mt. Everest yesterday. I skipped my nightly bowl of ice cream.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on May 5, 2013 8:56:00 GMT -8
45M shares brought back to treasury and the rest for anti-dilution.
Assuming $700 per share avg buyback price (way high), that's $31.5B in treasury stock purchasing or whatever.
SBE tends to be around $500M a quarter. Round way up to $2.5B a year, multiply by 2.75, call that $7B total until the end of calendar 2015...and...er...we're still off a few billion here. Heck, double it for fun. That's still << than half of the authorization limit.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on May 5, 2013 9:15:49 GMT -8
Hey Doc - good luck on the marathon - I hope you crush it (and it doesn't crush you)! Hopefully you had a nice dish of pasta yesterday 3:49. 8 minute PR. I think this bodes well for AAPL. ;D Wow - I'm impressed! Good for you!
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on May 5, 2013 9:59:12 GMT -8
Thank you all!
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 5, 2013 10:03:48 GMT -8
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2013 10:47:14 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on May 5, 2013 12:25:50 GMT -8
Nice run, appledoc.
+1
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 5, 2013 12:41:53 GMT -8
45M shares brought back to treasury and the rest for anti-dilution. Assuming $700 per share avg buyback price (way high), that's $31.5B in treasury stock purchasing or whatever. SBE tends to be around $500M a quarter. Round way up to $2.5B a year, multiply by 2.75, call that $7B total until the end of calendar 2015...and...er...we're still off a few billion here. Heck, double it for fun. That's still << than half of the authorization limit. Good math, Mav. This buyback won't be fully understood or appreciated until we look back from 2016 and can see the average cost per share in toto, and with an almost certain annual increase in the dividend, the true savings there...if the divvy in 2015 is 31% higher than this May's payout, add 62-65 cents each quarter to savings not being paid on retired shares.... It all adds up...then there is the realized income from expired put premiums sold...... It makes cash management ( with the emphasis on "management") a real contributor.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 5, 2013 12:44:05 GMT -8
So are we going up or down this week? TA mavens want a retrace. Mercel like Bulls want a Saturn V. I don't know what the Sponge wants these days.... What is it gonna be?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2013 13:10:40 GMT -8
This buyback won't be fully understood or appreciated until we look back from 2016 and can see the average cost per share in toto, and with an almost certain annual increase in the dividend, the true savings there...if the divvy in 2015 is 31% higher than this May's payout, add 62-65 cents each quarter to savings not being paid on retired shares.... I would expect, should AAPL be appreciating nominally (4% compound) each quarter, that dividend increases will be limited to a 3% yield on AAPL's average price of the previous quarter. Math: AAPL appreciates 17% per annum plus 3% dividend nets the investor 20% ROI. The dividend is taxed something (I'm not yet conversant with the new tax schedules), and capital gains on the equity is taxed as long term. From a base of $450 I think that's a no brainer, at least through calendar 2015.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2013 15:14:13 GMT -8
So are we going up or down this week? TA mavens want a retrace. Mercel like Bulls want a Saturn V. I don't know what the Sponge wants these days.... What is it gonna be? Wanting and predicting are two different things. I can guarantee you that I won't be shorting AAPL here...
|
|
stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
|
Post by stub on May 5, 2013 15:44:03 GMT -8
Full speed ahead Ensign, Warp Factor 8...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2013 16:52:55 GMT -8
I don't know what to make of this: corporate ownership of AAPL has dropped from 64.10% to 63.93%. That's the lowest I've ever seen it.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 5, 2013 17:03:51 GMT -8
I don't know what to make of this: corporate ownership of AAPL has dropped from 64.10% to 63.93%. That's the lowest I've ever seen it. Maybe for the first time retail investors are smarter then institutional. Just think of the potential in the next three years.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 5, 2013 17:08:14 GMT -8
So are we going up or down this week? TA mavens want a retrace. Mercel like Bulls want a Saturn V. I don't know what the Sponge wants these days.... What is it gonna be? What I want and what I get are two different things. All I ask for is 475 by end of the week.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on May 5, 2013 17:12:24 GMT -8
I don't know what to make of this: corporate ownership of AAPL has dropped from 64.10% to 63.93%. That's the lowest I've ever seen it. Are those the figures from the last quarter? I thought The big funds only report quarterly.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 5, 2013 17:32:15 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on May 5, 2013 17:52:05 GMT -8
475 by the end of the week? Why? Some technicals/salt-over-the-shoulder types would like a retrace of various amounts (say, 410-437ish) or some consolidation action, which could also be a nice digestion/rest stop/recharge/bull flag setup.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 5, 2013 18:02:03 GMT -8
475 by the end of the week? Why? Some technicals/salt-over-the-shoulder types would like a retrace of various amounts (say, 410-437ish) or some consolidation action, which could also be a nice digestion/rest stop/recharge/bull flag setup. I was going to wait for 480 by end of the month or 500 middle of June. But given the quick rise I want to sell this week at 470+ and wait for the profit taking and rebuy below 450. I am referring to my Jan550 contracts only.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on May 5, 2013 18:02:24 GMT -8
Prices don't go up in a straight line. Retraces are good measuring sticks of sentiment and help provide future support levels. If we shed 2% this week, who cares. A generalization, but you get what I mean.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on May 5, 2013 18:07:56 GMT -8
9 bucks down in a week is practically a potential bull flag formation. But like anything in TW/EW at least, we'll just have to measure as we go.
We'll see the psychological effect/programming effect of the MACD-h weekly going positive on bears and machines tomorrow.
This is only me and my idiot trading, but to "share" with AFB (you all already know it's more like a trading log that NO ONE SHOULD EVER ATTEMPT TO UNDERSTAND), I felt mildly nervous by the lower volume and pinning on Friday so I sold my follow-on BCS when it got light green. I'd welcome a cooling-off period of some sort.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 5, 2013 18:20:04 GMT -8
What is the date to hold shares to get the divvy in May?
|
|