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Post by podboy on May 15, 2013 8:00:46 GMT -8
430 is support. Common support!
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2013 8:03:39 GMT -8
I am a little surprised we have not recovered but instead testing new lows.
But then I look at goog and it makes perfect sense. The more we drop the higher they go. This has little to do with profits. Apple is still healthy and goog is not making money from android.
We just have to patient. I think in a year we will flip again. But it will take a long time before we surpass them like we did a year ago.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 8:08:32 GMT -8
It's not silly comparing Google and Apple, but it's not like you're comparing Lenovo and HP for example, who are both PC Manufacturers. Google does Search, why is an extremely safe source of ever growing revenue and Apple gets most of it's profits from Smartphones and Tablets, where both markets are growing significantly, but there are concerns about margins shrinking. It's a valid concern. Personally, I think Apple will stay in the mid to high 30's, and I've put my money where my mouth is, but there are a lot of people that see Apple going from EPS growth of near 100% to shrinking EPS in just over a year and see that as a very bad sign. Really, the answers won't be out about who is right and who is wrong until January earnings in my opinion.
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Post by terps530 on May 15, 2013 8:09:28 GMT -8
I am a little surprised we have not recovered but instead testing new lows. But then I look at goog and it makes perfect sense. The more we drop the higher they go. This has little to do with profits. Apple is still healthy and goog is not making money from android. We just have to patient. I think in a year we will flip again. But it will take a long time before we surpass them like we did a year ago. speaking of theories that make perfect sense- can you go back to being a bear? aapl went up until you flip-flopped back to original sponge.
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2013 8:16:16 GMT -8
All I know is that being bearish is helping me. I sold calls for profits and now bought them back much cheaper then I ever imagined. Will sell them for profits again above 485 in a few weeks.
Don't care if we don't move much higher by end of the year. Just moving with the flow and allowing myself plenty of space away from margin calls.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on May 15, 2013 8:20:39 GMT -8
And like it or not, Search is seen as a much safer revenue stream for Google than the Smartphone industry. Right or wrong, people see how quickly companies grow and then shrink in the Smartphone industry...when was the last credible threat to Google's search domination? Is this sarcasm? If so, you make even me and Mav look obvious. Mobile is in the process of killing Google's search revenue because it is killing PC's, and mobile doesn't pay (unless you are Apple or Samsung). Mobile is the meteor which killed the dinosaurs (keeping in mind that didn't happen overnight). PC's - Google's bread and butter for search and maps - are mastodons bellowing in the tarpits. Why do you think Google launched Android in the first place? That weasel Schmidt saw the writing on the wall when Steve pitched the iPhone in the board meetings, and Schmidt got the feeling in his stomach one (presumably) gets when the doctor says, "we've found mets in your liver." The problem is, mobile makes far, far less per click than desktop, and to make matters worse, Google isn't on every mobile device, unlike desktop. Google isn't even on every American Android device (e.g., Nooks, Kindles), let alone in China, where Google search is essentially banned. Even Samsung is working on its own OS, which should make Google extremely nervous ("the mets have spread to your lungs."). Here's a projection of Google's mobile ad revenues: Keeping in mind that Google spent ~$14B on Motorola Mobility, for what even open-source fanboy Florian Mueller calls practically worthless patents, it is making around $2.5B in mobile ad revenue this year. For comparison, Apple made $2.5B in revenue in a little over 5 days last quarter. If you think search is a "safe" revenue stream, I am never going for a ride with you and letting you drive.
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2013 8:26:58 GMT -8
Also much of the revenue on mobile comes from iOS. The writing is on the wall for them in search. It may take a decade but this is a long battle.
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Post by terps530 on May 15, 2013 8:34:11 GMT -8
All I know is that being bearish is helping me. I sold calls for profits and now bought them back much cheaper then I ever imagined. Will sell them for profits again above 485 in a few weeks. Don't care if we don't move much higher by end of the year. Just moving with the flow and allowing myself plenty of space away from margin calls. Being bearish is not buying calls as a stock goes lower and lower. There is a post history you know... You're original average cost was 9.47. You sold those for 10.75. Good job. But now you have rebought the 550 calls at: 10.35 on thursday 9.90 on Monday 8.00 on Tuesday ~7 today. All of which are trading at 6.25 now. I'm glad you are off margin, but making the above trades while saying you have been bearish, doesn't make sense.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 8:38:16 GMT -8
Safe in IT is obviously a relative word, but what competitor is out there for Search that is anywhere close to Google in Market Share? Lets say Google Search is used on only 80% of Android devices, that's still a massive amount of devices, even if the amount of money they make per device is still less than PC's.
No one is saying Google makes anywhere near the money that Apple is making, all I'm saying is look at the volatility of EPS Growth with Apple. From 100% to -20% in just over a year? You aren't getting that with Google. People see what happened to RIM and think it can happen to Apple...I don't believe it will, but the Smartphone industry is a quickly changing arena, and Search is not.
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Post by mace on May 15, 2013 8:39:18 GMT -8
AAPL and GOOG comparison is valid because they share the same traders. Money going into GOOG has to come from money leaving AAPL.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on May 15, 2013 8:41:56 GMT -8
It'll be interesting to see whether AAPL can hold 440. Looking at the timing of the serious PM selloff and the release of the US Production report, I'd say that the report was a definitive factor in today's selloff. I do not see AAPL getting anywhere near $440 today, and Closed my position at a loss. I've said it before, then violated my own statement, but I'm going to sit on the sidelines for the next two to three weeks. Gregg, have you ever considered selling OTM calls?
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Post by macwire on May 15, 2013 8:47:40 GMT -8
Looking at the timing of the serious PM selloff and the release of the US Production report, I'd say that the report was a definitive factor in today's selloff. I do not see AAPL getting anywhere near $440 today, and Closed my position at a loss. I've said it before, then violated my own statement, but I'm going to sit on the sidelines for the next two to three weeks. Gregg, have you ever considered selling OTM calls? Only problem with that is when aapl ever gets going it can get going fast. Then again it hasn't. Might not be a horrible idea to sell OTM at the levels it gets getting rejected at. (460-480)
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2013 8:48:32 GMT -8
All I know is that being bearish is helping me. I sold calls for profits and now bought them back much cheaper then I ever imagined. Will sell them for profits again above 485 in a few weeks. Don't care if we don't move much higher by end of the year. Just moving with the flow and allowing myself plenty of space away from margin calls. Being bearish is not buying calls as a stock goes lower and lower. There is a post history you know... You're original average cost was 9.47. You sold those for 10.75. Good job. But now you have rebought the 550 calls at: 10.35 on thursday 9.90 on Monday 8.00 on Tuesday ~7 today. All of which are trading at 6.25 now. I'm glad you are off margin, but making the above trades while saying you have been bearish, doesn't make sense. Surprised you keep tabs on me so closely. The bullish view would have heavily invested in long shares with no cash on the sidelines. I now don't expect more then 525 by end of year but can make money with the swings. I have never done that before. I am still on margin and a close below 430 would trigger a call. But in the last I would buy shares and would find myself with a call at 465 instead of 430. I don't care if we move up or down. Time is on my side. Apple is still an amazing investing opportunity and long term still bullish. Just don't care what it does that much in the next 18 months.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on May 15, 2013 8:51:01 GMT -8
Gregg, have you ever considered selling OTM calls? Only problem with that is when aapl ever gets going it can get going fast. That rarely happens on monthly option expiration weeks. BTW, those puts should be piling up right about now. IMO, we close higher than this on Fri. I am agnostic ATM - no open trades.
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Post by wheeles on May 15, 2013 8:53:59 GMT -8
It'll be interesting to see whether AAPL can hold 440. Er... 430?
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Post by macwire on May 15, 2013 8:59:36 GMT -8
Only problem with that is when aapl ever gets going it can get going fast. That rarely happens on monthly option expiration weeks. BTW, those puts should be piling up right about now. IMO, we close higher than this on Fri. I am agnostic ATM - no open trades. Yah. Didn't mean may regular options lol
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 9:14:10 GMT -8
Apple should be stepping up here but see zero evidence. But I'm with JD, as OI suggests $440 and higher.
I have better hopes for next week. But this disconnect between GOOG and AAPL is ridiculous. WS looks prepared to run GOOG like AMZN. As in "F" the fundamentals. They want to run this like a casino and they're the house. Period.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 9:15:28 GMT -8
I hate this rigged casino
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Post by terps530 on May 15, 2013 9:17:36 GMT -8
anyone following google's I/O conference? i heard they just announced a google streaming music service that was a kick in the face to itunes, and will prob dominate things like spotify.
wondering if this is why aapl is dropping again here.
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2013 9:17:41 GMT -8
Well lets get the selling over with now. Faster and quicker is better then the trickle down. We now have gone from 469 to 428 in two weeks. Tomorrow the dividend will be passed out. That should give us support. I thought for sure that was at 450, but as I had suspected, the move Friday signaled a risk of future wild moves in either direction. It just happened to be to the negative side.
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Post by macwire on May 15, 2013 9:21:48 GMT -8
Well lets get the selling over with now. Faster and quicker is better then the trickle down. We now have gone from 469 to 428 in two weeks. Tomorrow the dividend will be passed out. That should give us support. I thought for sure that was at 450, but as I had suspected, the move Friday signaled a risk of future wild moves in either direction. It just happened to be to the negative side. I literally have no idea what you are talking about. Lol
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Post by twrx on May 15, 2013 9:46:26 GMT -8
What would you do if you are in charge of aapl stock buy back program?
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 9:51:05 GMT -8
Well there's no excuse not to have an iRadio service be announced next month
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 15, 2013 9:53:33 GMT -8
443 / 431 / 422 / 412 (ish)
Well, there go two of em so far. Sheesh!
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Post by mace on May 15, 2013 9:54:54 GMT -8
What would you do if you are in charge of aapl stock buy back program? If can use options, short puts ($430) for Jul, Oct, Jan and Apr months. $10 billion* worth for each month. *Assigned value of shares not worth of options. Approx average assigned price is $400.
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Post by gtrplyr on May 15, 2013 9:55:51 GMT -8
anyone following google's I/O conference? i heard they just announced a google streaming music service that was a kick in the face to itunes, and will prob dominate things like spotify. wondering if this is why aapl is dropping again here. Spotify should have been purchased by Apple years ago. I'm starting to think they don't have a fucking clue in Cupertino anymore. SAD. I'm tired of hearing the hubris from Cook and company .... quit telling us about the upcoming products and ANNOUNCE something. Would it have really been so hard to do a streaming service ? Hanging in there but don't know for how long .... it's getting real old
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 15, 2013 9:56:26 GMT -8
Hmm. If AAPL has a "technician" on staff, contract, whatever to help out with the buyback, would said technician would be advising AAPL to hold out for lower prices?
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Post by mace on May 15, 2013 9:57:12 GMT -8
Well there's no excuse not to have an iRadio service be announced next month Yup. Vaguely recalled big music services always intentionally sign up with competitors before licensing Apple. Is a kind of power play, check and balance act.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 15, 2013 9:57:43 GMT -8
And Spotify/music streaming will rehab AAPL/Apple's image? Really now? There's much better plays from the "do something" playbook. And as I've said before, right or wrong, Apple tends to play its playbook a certain way. And right now that playbook probably says: "WWDC 2013 Keynote announcement in 2-3 weeks."
Music is quite the bypass attack to take on Apple. If Apple falls, it won't be 'cuz of no iRadio.
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Post by appledoc on May 15, 2013 9:59:22 GMT -8
I do not like the look of this at all. But hopefully we gather composure in the 419-424 range.
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