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Post by phoebear611 on May 17, 2013 2:18:59 GMT -8
So it's Friday...PIN day... soon others will rise and tell us how that's looking today. Yesterday's action in AAPL was like my old ride on the Coney Island roller coaster but if anything, it finished in a bullish versus bearish mode..so let's be thankful for strong stomachs and good endings. After all, today is a year that Facebook came out - imagine being long from that IPO! Good luck to the longs today - slightly green in PM. Happy Friday!
PS - I'm still laughing about JD's response re: his blog .... missed his wry sense of humor!
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Post by phoebear611 on May 17, 2013 2:23:59 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on May 17, 2013 4:29:50 GMT -8
So it's Friday...PIN day... Monthly expiration and weekly expiration tend to exhibit different behaviours. Weekly, you tend to get an OI-related pin, whereas monthly can be very directional going to one extreme of a range (or beyond).
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Post by appledoc on May 17, 2013 4:31:57 GMT -8
Stupid question: Why not today? Looking to buy in end of day when you have as much confirmation as possible? I wanted to see if the SMA20 would actually be recaptured. It was too close to but at the close yesterday.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 17, 2013 4:55:28 GMT -8
So it's Friday...PIN day... Monthly expiration and weekly expiration tend to exhibit different behaviours. Weekly, you tend to get an OI-related pin, whereas monthly can be very directional going to one extreme of a range (or beyond). Ah yes - I had forgotten it was monthly. Great point. Well, AAPL is sure going in the right direction in PM!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on May 17, 2013 5:26:52 GMT -8
Taking a page from the Gates. Good for her. Ans she's a Jersey girl.
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Post by artman1033 on May 17, 2013 5:36:32 GMT -8
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Ted
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Post by Ted on May 17, 2013 5:59:51 GMT -8
Or it could be a chance for Tim to assert himself and show the world that Apple isn't a tax slacker. Why don't you think TC can stand up to a bunch of grand-standing blow-hards?
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Post by macwire on May 17, 2013 6:18:00 GMT -8
Weak weak weak. Prolly gonna book my profits.
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Post by wheeles on May 17, 2013 6:30:17 GMT -8
Weak weak weak. Prolly gonna book my profits. Probably a good idea.
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Post by sponge on May 17, 2013 6:32:30 GMT -8
Just made my last buy for a while.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 6:38:08 GMT -8
Weak weak weak. Prolly gonna book my profits. Was anything really expected on a pin day?
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Post by macwire on May 17, 2013 6:40:12 GMT -8
Speaking of which ... Where's pain. Lol.
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Post by madmaxroi on May 17, 2013 6:59:52 GMT -8
Speaking of which ... Where's pain. Lol. Where's pain? Investing to the long side in AAPL.
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Post by appledoc on May 17, 2013 7:02:09 GMT -8
Not sure we're going to get the bullish divergence on the daily MACDh that I was looking for. I need that and a close above at least the SMA50 to buy at the close.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on May 17, 2013 7:11:03 GMT -8
Speaking of which ... Where's pain. Lol. $435
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Post by wheeles on May 17, 2013 7:33:43 GMT -8
Weak weak weak. Prolly gonna book my profits. Was anything really expected on a pin day? Monthly expiration no longer tends to pin at max OI pain as tends to happen with the weeklies. You are more likely to get a move to the extreme of the range. I don't know why it has changed to be like this, but maybe it's because all the options "losers" tend to trade weeklies rather than monthlies.
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Post by sponge on May 17, 2013 9:05:06 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 9:21:58 GMT -8
The lower margin is because of lower ASP, mostly because of a higher mix of older iPhones being sold instead of brand new expensive iPhone 5's. I'd be surprised if Apple didn't have cost certainty from Samsung built into a contract, with only standard yearly raises involved. I doubt if Samsung could just increase their prices to Apple by 25% for example.
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Post by lance on May 17, 2013 9:29:40 GMT -8
Apple's worth 400billion Market cap Googles worth 300billion Market cap. Thats what the market thinks. The question is which one is undervalued long term. Apple currently pulls 40billion+ in profits. Google pulls 10billion plus in profits. Apple has 150Billion USD cash Google has 50billion in Cash. Apple has a 3% dividend google has no dividend. Apple is buying back 60billion in shares Google is buying back None. Apple is making 156billion in revenues a year and google is making 50 billion a year. Both have a strong brand and patent portfolios which hold market cap value probably in the range of 20-100billion.
The only area Google is currently leading is growth. It does appear Apple has stalled its growth whereas Google appears to be grwoing in 10-20% zone.
Which company is the better investment? Only time will tell, but numbers seem to point to Apple as long as they can just stay in the 30-50 billion profit zone for multiple years.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 9:57:32 GMT -8
Agreed, but if a company is not growing, or worse, shrinking, thats not a company I want to invest in. If Apple doesn't quickly turn around the falling EPS, there will be no reason to invest in Apple. I'm not expecting growth for the July or October report, but if guidance doesn't come for growth in January, I'll find new places to invest.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 9:59:39 GMT -8
Weak weak weak. Prolly gonna book my profits. That's what I did, although I missed the highs of the day, I booked 44% profit in 24 hours.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 10:07:42 GMT -8
Agreed, but if a company is not growing, or worse, shrinking, thats not a company I want to invest in. If Apple doesn't quickly turn around the falling EPS, there will be no reason to invest in Apple. I'm not expecting growth for the July or October report, but if guidance doesn't come for growth in January, I'll find new places to invest. Apple's earnings aren't declining as (degree) some investors believe. The greatest portion of the apparent decline in EPS is due to Apple's GM% returning to industry high (by a big margin) average (~38%). Some of the decline is an intentional product mix shift, with a smaller amount attributed to increased costs. Remember Apple went through a period of exceptionally high GMs (averaging well over 40%), while competitors struggled to achieve 20%. Starting with the December quarter, the compare to that exceptional period will be behind us.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 10:17:42 GMT -8
Agreed, but if a company is not growing, or worse, shrinking, thats not a company I want to invest in. If Apple doesn't quickly turn around the falling EPS, there will be no reason to invest in Apple. I'm not expecting growth for the July or October report, but if guidance doesn't come for growth in January, I'll find new places to invest. Apple's earnings aren't declining as some investors believe. The greatest portion of the apparent decline in EPS is due to Apple's GM% returning to industry high (by a big margin) average (~38%). Some of the decline is an intentional product mix shift, with a smaller amount attributed to increased costs. Remember Apple went through a period of exceptionally high GMs (averaging well over 40%), while competitors struggled to achieve 20%. Starting with the December quarter, the compare to that exceptional period will be behind us. Apple's earnings are declining...the past 2 quarters as well as at least the next one will all show a decline in earnings from the prior year. I completely agree with you that this is because of unusually high margins, but there are a number of questions... Can iPhone ASP stay above $600?? Will margins stabilize in the mid to high 30%'s? A sub 30% will crush Apple. Will sales numbers for the iPhone continue to grow? I think iPad still has lots of growth left in it, but I'm not so sure about the iPhone and if the trend towards cheaper iPhones and lower ASP will continue. If the trend towards everyone getting the "free" 2 year old iPhone, ASP and margins will continue to decrease. Margins for iPads are less than iPhones...and if iPad continues to grow faster than iPhone, won't margins continue to trend down? I'm not sure they can stabilize in the 38% range.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 10:24:55 GMT -8
Nevertheless, it's a little depressing to think we need to wait until 2014 to see some EPS growth. Or at least we hope to see EPS growth in January
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 17, 2013 10:25:38 GMT -8
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Post by moltenfire on May 17, 2013 10:36:38 GMT -8
Nevertheless, it's a little depressing to think we need to wait until 2014 to see some EPS growth. Or at least we hope to see EPS growth in January Weren't some members looking for an ATH in Sept 2013 right after the January conf call? (Sigh) If the market's looking for eps growth, there's probably no reason to buy AAPL until Dec 2013 / Jan 2014.
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Post by artman1033 on May 17, 2013 10:41:09 GMT -8
WOW! THIS is market moving for AAPL
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Post by macwire on May 17, 2013 11:19:58 GMT -8
Weak weak weak. Prolly gonna book my profits. That's what I did, although I missed the highs of the day, I booked 44% profit in 24 hours. Yup. It's just prudent till it proves itself as a swing long. And declining 7 percent over 2 days on no news in a strong bull market is not exhibiting that type of behavior.
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Post by 4aapl on May 17, 2013 11:22:16 GMT -8
I'm not so sure about the iPhone and if the trend towards cheaper iPhones and lower ASP will continue. If the trend towards everyone getting the "free" 2 year old iPhone, ASP and margins will continue to decrease. I see them a bit as different markets. Those getting the 2 year old phone are more likely new to an iPhone and possibly new to a smartphone, as opposed to replacing a 2 year old iPhone. And by the end of a 2 year subscription, the 2-3 year old model could have technology as old as 5 years. Personally, I think there's not going to be migration down the line, but rather migration up the line for those that have found the smartphone in their pocket to be useful over the past subscription.
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