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Post by appledoc on May 17, 2013 11:41:38 GMT -8
I am going to try my hardest to be disciplined and not buy here in the last 20 minutes. My gut says without monthly OE, we'd be closing above the 50 and 20 day.
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Post by seabiscuit on May 17, 2013 11:52:10 GMT -8
I am going to try my hardest to be disciplined and not buy here in the last 20 minutes. My gut says without monthly OE, we'd be closing above the 50 and 20 day. Yea, maybe. Whole market going to new highs while struggles to find a bottom.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 17, 2013 11:53:03 GMT -8
I am going to try my hardest to be disciplined and not buy here in the last 20 minutes. My gut says without monthly OE, we'd be closing above the 50 and 20 day. I agree..I don't know why, but I agree.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 11:55:55 GMT -8
OI says we'll close under $435. With GOOG, AMZN and MSFT flying high while AAPL digs a trench, I have serious doubts that the stock market is any place one should put money. So many crooks and gamblers in the market. It's disgusting.
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Post by sponge on May 17, 2013 12:00:29 GMT -8
Did I say 435? I meant 430. Oh well. Just now patiently wait for the next train uptown. Once again the next 7 months are going to be challenging. When it comes to new exciting products I think we will have to wait until 2014. Just upgrades this fall.
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Post by appledoc on May 17, 2013 12:00:48 GMT -8
I am going to try my hardest to be disciplined and not buy here in the last 20 minutes. My gut says without monthly OE, we'd be closing above the 50 and 20 day. I agree..I don't know why, but I agree. Well, I bought anyways. Apr 14 575/600 BCS @ 2.15 Not a big entry, but I feel good about these. Expiry 11 months away is comforting.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 12:12:46 GMT -8
Sounds like what I bought...Jan 15 600/650 BCS for $5
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Post by mace on May 17, 2013 12:52:32 GMT -8
Apr 14 575/600 BCS @ 2.15 Three contracts .
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Post by fas550 on May 17, 2013 12:55:29 GMT -8
There are just easier places to grow an investment. Unfortunately fundamentals don't mean squat (interestingly I heard more about fundamentals During ATHs as a justification for valuation). If the iPhone 5 with a new form factor can't grow the company then the next iteration isn't either as the target market is saturated with smartphone choices. Emerging markets are a great opportunity, but at the sacrifice of ASP and hence margins. Apple will be higher 2, 5 or 10 years from now probably but then so will a hoard of other stocks with arguably less risk. So basically the main catalyst for growth will be another disruptive technology. The risk for many on the what or the when for that to happen is simply too much for many. I will keep my scaled down investment but I am we'll over it being my prime investment for now.
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Post by fas550 on May 17, 2013 13:07:20 GMT -8
Oh and BTW. Had a lot of chance to study the FACTs of any predictive nature of what Apple stock is going to do including P/C ratios, hedge fund investments, BS news reports good and bad etc.. the only thing close to consistency is: If GOOG is going up on a tear AAPL is probably going down. EW Analysis is right more than wrong. That's not a guess that's just facts of the price action for whatever justification you want to put behind it.
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Post by rezonate on May 17, 2013 13:18:59 GMT -8
WOW! THIS is market moving for AAPL He who would pun would pick a pocket, hrrmmm?
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Post by appledoc on May 17, 2013 13:26:29 GMT -8
Apr 14 575/600 BCS @ 2.15 Three contracts . Yup. Starting small. Will build on confirmation.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 13:31:35 GMT -8
Nevertheless, it's a little depressing to think we need to wait until 2014 to see some EPS growth. Or at least we hope to see EPS growth in January It would be depressing if you invest short term, but if you invested for the long term a return to EPS expansion in 2014 would give you more time to load up. From your comment it appears your investment time frame is the next earnings report, or less.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 13:34:58 GMT -8
Personally, I think there's not going to be migration down the line, but rather migration up the line for those that have found the smartphone in their pocket to be useful over the past subscription. A most excellent post.
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2013 13:44:48 GMT -8
Nevertheless, it's a little depressing to think we need to wait until 2014 to see some EPS growth. Or at least we hope to see EPS growth in January It would be depressing if you invest short term, but if you invested for the long term a return to EPS expansion in 2014 would give you more time to load up. From your comment it appears your investment time frame is the next earnings report, or less. Nope, I only have shares and Jan 2015 spreads...but to go from growing 50 - 100% YOY to just hoping to return to any growth is what I find disappointing.
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Post by fas550 on May 17, 2013 13:50:54 GMT -8
It would be depressing if you invest short term, but if you invested for the long term a return to EPS expansion in 2014 would give you more time to load up. From your comment it appears your investment time frame is the next earnings report, or less. Nope, I only have shares and Jan 2015 spreads...but to go from growing 50 - 100% YOY to just hoping to return to any growth is what I find disappointing. Agreed. Hope is not a plan. It is what it is and no more. Seriously no one knows and given AAPL is the poster child of a pinyata instead of stability makes it a tricky investment at best given the industry and timeline for returns. It's not fair but the market does not care about fair. This is not a Disney movie where everything has a happy ending. Clorox YTD gain: 21.2%. Apple: YTD: -17.x%. What the hell is fair about that
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Post by sponge on May 17, 2013 14:18:43 GMT -8
I am still confident that Apple is working on improving the iPhone and iPad in very impressive ways. I don't think we will see big changes until 2014, but more radical in 2016. Apple is still relying on Samsung and won't be free of them until the 5S is no longer produced. So it will be awhile before Apple can produce a new iPhone without being copied.
One must look 3-5 years before seeing solid returns at this point. We were are living in the honeymoon years between 2007-2012. Rates of growth won't pick up speed until we get a new product. He iTV may come next year at the earliest and then will take time to build up in volume.
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Post by lovemyipad on May 17, 2013 14:34:50 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 17, 2013 14:46:18 GMT -8
Insanity. Short interest at ATH when there's probably better than $15B in Buy the Dip from a single source?!? (And that's just from the bond issue.)
The 4/30 date does account for some time to cover, so that's interesting. Honestly with 2x the short interest it almost seems like a huge typo or something.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 17, 2013 14:50:55 GMT -8
I bought yesterday but I'm with most of you - no bigger moves without more confirmation. Still way over half cash, what little there is anyway.
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