Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2013 8:46:39 GMT -8
Probably best to leave the fire and brimstone to proxies like Rand Paul... I'm thinking of offering my only daughter to Paul.
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Post by nathanstevens on May 22, 2013 9:04:34 GMT -8
Sent emails yesterday to Levin, McCain and Cook. Guess who has already responded. Care to share the response?
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Post by rickag on May 22, 2013 9:16:30 GMT -8
… Sent emails yesterday to Levin, McCain and Cook. Guess who has already responded. Cook
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Post by dreamRaj on May 22, 2013 9:18:19 GMT -8
Probably best to leave the fire and brimstone to proxies like Rand Paul... I'm thinking of offering my only daughter to Paul. LOL
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 22, 2013 9:18:19 GMT -8
Well, good to see AAPL thumbing its nose at the Public Enemy #1 treatment it's still getting, even with the "grudging respect" of journalists who have to admit Cook and Co. did quite well at the subcommittee hearing.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on May 22, 2013 9:26:30 GMT -8
Not to tout the genius of my foresight, but I had suggested last Thursday that I thought at least some of the senators on the Apple Show Trial Committee might have been aiming for the following result: One has to wonder if TC's people had discussed with Sen. Paul's people, inter alia, about how to appear as patriotic, taxpaying, job-creating Americans, and sympathy and good will would flow from even the most idiot-chaired, ill-conceived committee hearing. The real stupidity and irony of the hearing was that Levin's clueless filibusters were counter-productive to his goals, i.e., shaming Apple and confiscating our wealth.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on May 22, 2013 9:30:14 GMT -8
I continue to be fascinated by options and too cheap to buy the big boy tools to really see what is happening. This leaves me in a position where i have to invent my own. I just looked at something that might be interesting and is probably well known and well understood. Forgive me if i have re-invented the wheel.
Sometimes the best estimates are those that reflect the combined wisdom of many, many estimates. I think this is especially true in the market and in options , where the belief of the crowd can become a self fulfilling prophecy. With this in mind, it seems to me that the option chain contains valuable information about market sentiment. If we choose an expiration date, say Jun 13, then for each strike price, the sum of the strike price and the bid is an estimate of what the stock will be worth on the expiration date. So if the strike price is 430 and the bid is 20.5, those buyers of the option believe that the stock will be worth more than 450.5 on June 13. Call this number the expectation. For each strike, we can find the percentage of buyers who believe in that expectation by taking the number of contracts sold today at that strike divided by the total contracts sold today. Then the sum of the expectations times the percentage over the range of strikes yields an estimate of what the options market believes for June 13. This estimate is appealing to me because it is where people have actually put their money.
Using strikes from 200 to 550 for June 13, I get that the market believes that Apple will be greater than 466.84 by June 13.
It might be interesting to do this calculation for a range of expirations as well as a range of strikes and plot it as a surface.
As I said above, forgive me if this is a re-invented wheel, but i thought it was kind of interesting.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on May 22, 2013 9:32:39 GMT -8
Sen. Paul tweeted a good Fortune Apple piece not written by PED:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 22, 2013 9:36:00 GMT -8
"Money goes where it is welcome."
The litmus test for people who think good business is, well, good. And Apple is certainly one of the best good businesses out there.
Tim set the stage quite well for his D Conference appearance next week. Lookin' forward to it!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 22, 2013 9:37:37 GMT -8
WOOOHOOOOOO NFLX (for the moment) (maybe I should set an unreliable higher-level stop) (just did) Provisional Update:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 22, 2013 10:04:24 GMT -8
Might be good for AAPL just to get the gap-fill over with already.
But for now, we're still in Neutral. Beats being in Reverse.
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Post by moltenfire on May 22, 2013 10:12:17 GMT -8
Is the drop related to the FOMC statement being released?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 22, 2013 10:13:17 GMT -8
Well, so much for that gap. Not a bad thing necessarily. The Bernanke Put's still in play AFAIK. So, just plain buyers' fatigue?
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Post by lance on May 22, 2013 10:37:56 GMT -8
overblown market rally finally officially looks done. Normally that is bad news for me it is best thing that can happen. The market needed calm down. So now how will Apple take it? My hope is AAPL trades similar to it does now ie sideways building up a strong base and resistance. Best would be an inverse market reaction and AAPL bull unlikely but one can dream.
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Post by lance on May 22, 2013 10:40:02 GMT -8
look for 1600 gap on s&p fill to be an area market to head to over next couple days.
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Post by macwire on May 22, 2013 10:44:12 GMT -8
overblown market rally finally officially looks done. Normally that is bad news for me it is best thing that can happen. The market needed calm down. So now how will Apple take it? My hope is AAPL trades similar to it does now ie sideways building up a strong base and resistance. Best would be an inverse market reaction and AAPL bull unlikely but one can dream. Too soon to call until we see how rest of the week plays out. Me I'm taking some risk off tho. FWIW every other outside day since Jan has been met with two hands dip buying. AAPL now red briefly.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 22, 2013 10:46:35 GMT -8
I bought a goog July put
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2013 11:08:21 GMT -8
I continue to be fascinated by options and too cheap to buy the big boy tools to really see what is happening. This leaves me in a position where i have to invent my own. I just looked at something that might be interesting and is probably well known and well understood. Forgive me if i have re-invented the wheel. Sometimes the best estimates are those that reflect the combined wisdom of many, many estimates. I think this is especially true in the market and in options , where the belief of the crowd can become a self fulfilling prophecy. With this in mind, it seems to me that the option chain contains valuable information about market sentiment. If we choose an expiration date, say Jun 13, then for each strike price, the sum of the strike price and the bid is an estimate of what the stock will be worth on the expiration date. So if the strike price is 430 and the bid is 20.5, those buyers of the option believe that the stock will be worth more than 450.5 on June 13. Call this number the expectation. For each strike, we can find the percentage of buyers who believe in that expectation by taking the number of contracts sold today at that strike divided by the total contracts sold today. Then the sum of the expectations times the percentage over the range of strikes yields an estimate of what the options market believes for June 13. This estimate is appealing to me because it is where people have actually put their money. Using strikes from 200 to 550 for June 13, I get that the market believes that Apple will be greater than 466.84 by June 13. It might be interesting to do this calculation for a range of expirations as well as a range of strikes and plot it as a surface. As I said above, forgive me if this is a re-invented wheel, but i thought it was kind of interesting. I did something similar to this a few years back. I found that the indicated "expectation was about 7% higher than results. I couldn't understand the discrepancy until I realized that >90% of options players lose money investing them. The losses came from paying to much for the right Strike, or from buying the wrong Strike(s). I should have continued tracking results vs expectations, but didn't. Had I continued I might have seen a difference in up vs down trends. If I were you that's what I would be looking for today: accuracy in expectations in an uptrend vs downtrend. We are definitely in an uptrend, so your results would be influenced to the extent of the continuation of this trend.
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Post by artman1033 on May 22, 2013 11:12:30 GMT -8
PRAISE THE LORD!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2013 11:25:16 GMT -8
Sent emails yesterday to Levin, McCain and Cook. Guess who has already responded. Care to share the response? Thanks Gregg Tim
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Post by macwire on May 22, 2013 11:29:57 GMT -8
Heading towards a fugly close.
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Post by moltenfire on May 22, 2013 11:32:44 GMT -8
Considering the rest of my tech watch list is deep in the red, AAPL looks like it's performing quite well at less than -0.2% down.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 22, 2013 11:35:56 GMT -8
What'd you write to Tim, Gregg?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2013 11:43:47 GMT -8
Too soon to call until we see how rest of the week plays out. Me I'm taking some risk off tho. FWIW every other outside day since Jan has been met with two hands dip buying. AAPL now red briefly. Today's intraday low is $4.xx higher than yesterday's and continues a trend started on 17 May. Intraday high and low trend lines seem to be forming a bullish pennant. In a Week over Week examination, option OI has reversed the move to Puts that preceded AAPL's sudden decline to $418 last week. The P/C Ratio on the change is -158:1. Puts are being flushed out at a high rate. Call OI has gone positive by a small amount. Overall OI is down >400,000 contracts (Week over Week). Listening to the Doors on my Boze iPod player...loudly. Life is good.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2013 11:46:34 GMT -8
What'd you write to Tim, Gregg? I just congratulated him on a job well done in a potentially dangerous setting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2013 11:53:16 GMT -8
Well, so much for that gap. Not a bad thing necessarily. The Bernanke Put's still in play AFAIK. So, just plain buyers' fatigue? See my post on Put OI. I don't think they're a factor any longer.
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Post by macwire on May 22, 2013 11:54:22 GMT -8
Heading towards a fugly close. Late day dip buyers. Tomorrow gonna be show me day
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Post by moltenfire on May 22, 2013 11:59:33 GMT -8
Heading for a great close
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 22, 2013 11:59:54 GMT -8
Stopped out of NFLX options, so call it a day trade. Reinvested in QQQ puts with mostly NFLX gains (yay, I have gains for once this year). Nope I never learn.
AAPL closing well considering. Just watching my butterflies for now.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 22, 2013 12:00:24 GMT -8
rob and others in London...just heard the horrific terrorist attack against the British soldier on the streets of London. Awful...my prayers are with you all.
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