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Post by lovemyipad on May 24, 2013 14:12:32 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 24, 2013 14:21:16 GMT -8
A pretty good week. AAPL _just might_ be setting up for better times ahead. At the very least, Taxgate was weathered better than feared.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 24, 2013 14:21:24 GMT -8
And it is not bad......with WWDC two weeks away, speculation will begin to build. Buzz and surprises, new software.. Hints of new hardware. A nice close today. Really nice, considering.... I think taxgate will be looked upon as a turning point...Tim was great....and anytime one successfully but respectfully thumbs his nose at Conrgress, well....you gotta love it.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 24, 2013 14:33:04 GMT -8
Between the 20/50 EMA cross, and the big honking IHS, all right before WWDC, I gotta think we're going to finally go up and break out of the 8 month aapl hell. I'd like to see a 5xx print again!
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Post by sponge on May 24, 2013 14:38:23 GMT -8
And it is not bad......with WWDC two weeks away, speculation will begin to build. Buzz and surprises, new software.. Hints of new hardware. A nice close today. Really nice, considering.... I think taxgate will be looked upon as a turning point...Tim was great....and anytime one successfully but respectfully thumbs his nose at Conrgress, well....you gotta love it. I agree. Anytime you are before congress and even your critics praise your products and success, there is a benefit from that. I liked how the lady senator tried to ask about CM and then bragged about getting her husband to switch. Levin holding up his iPhone was priceless. Deep down everyone is rooting for Apple because they know everyone wins when they do well. Side note. My brother is in Korea now visiting. He ran into some local girls and they all had Samaungs but wished they could get iPhones instead. They knew the Galaxy is less durable. The reason they did not get the iPhone was cell phone coverage. A compromise they were not willing to make.
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Post by appledoc on May 24, 2013 15:36:21 GMT -8
Great week. Hoping to get 465 next week.
This is the first time we've found mid-channel support on the daily or weekly since we began the decline. The chart looks great IMO. Prime for a breakout.
;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 24, 2013 18:30:57 GMT -8
Save wavelength appledoc. Save wavelength.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2013 20:11:42 GMT -8
Next week, and the following week, I want to see sufficient buying pressure to CRUSH the weekly option players out of this stock. It's so unbelievably frustrating to see AAPL tethered by weeklies. F'ing go to Vegas and don't come back.
Other than that, a solid week following two disappointing weeks.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 24, 2013 20:30:41 GMT -8
Y'know what, another 10 or so points up next week wouldn't be a bad thing. WWDC is still 2 weeks away.
The key for bulls is that AAPL is setting up well. It seems to have way more traction than it's had in months. Sure it can all end Tuesday, but the price action will tell the story. SO FAR it's a constructive one IMHO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 24, 2013 20:45:03 GMT -8
www.asymco.com/2013/05/24/my-questions-for-tim-cook/I'm not so sure about that fourth question. You have Samsung, TSMC, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and TI in the chip-making biz, AFAIK. Qualcomm and TI probably wouldn't act as "foundry" for the iPhone's SoCs (is TI still even in the game?) TSMC
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on May 24, 2013 21:11:28 GMT -8
Next week, and the following week, I want to see sufficient buying pressure to CRUSH the weekly option players out of this stock. It's so unbelievably frustrating to see AAPL tethered by weeklies. F'ing go to Vegas and don't come back.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 24, 2013 21:58:07 GMT -8
Pffft. I didn't know the Samsung S4 had an "easy mode" until I saw an ad about it today.
It just says so much. ;D
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Post by redinaustin on May 25, 2013 5:12:18 GMT -8
My question for Tim: Why didn't you and Peter use iPads instead of paper in your testimony before the Senate?
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2013 7:57:11 GMT -8
Next week, and the following week, I want to see sufficient buying pressure to CRUSH the weekly option players out of this stock. It's so unbelievably frustrating to see AAPL tethered by weeklies. F'ing go to Vegas and don't come back. Yeah, and while we're at it, let's do away with Straddles and Strangles and Butterflies and ..... Oh, and let's do away with monthlies and quarterlies while we're at it. After all, they're just another flavor of short term trades. And we could ban swing trades, because, after all, they are short term as well. And if we ban swing trades, then we have to ban day trades, or any trade not held for at least a year. Let's make a rule that trades can only be entered into with a maturity of one year, or more. Yep, that's the ticket.
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Post by wheeles on May 25, 2013 10:08:11 GMT -8
Next week, and the following week, I want to see sufficient buying pressure to CRUSH the weekly option players out of this stock. It's so unbelievably frustrating to see AAPL tethered by weeklies. F'ing go to Vegas and don't come back. Yeah, and while we're at it, let's do away with Straddles and Strangles and Butterflies and ..... Oh, and let's do away with monthlies and quarterlies while we're at it. After all, they're just another flavor of short term trades. And we could ban swing trades, because, after all, they are short term as well. And if we ban swing trades, then we have to ban day trades, or any trade not held for at least a year. Let's make a rule that trades can only be entered into with a maturity of one year, or more. Yep, that's the ticket. Is that you, Mr Buffett?
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2013 10:08:48 GMT -8
Next week, and the following week, I want to see sufficient buying pressure to CRUSH the weekly option players out of this stock. It's so unbelievably frustrating to see AAPL tethered by weeklies. F'ing go to Vegas and don't come back. Yeah, and while we're at it, let's do away with Straddles and Strangles and Butterflies and ..... Oh, and let's do away with monthlies and quarterlies while we're at it. After all, they're just another flavor of short term trades. And we could ban swing trades, because, after all, they are short term as well. And if we ban swing trades, then we have to ban day trades, or any trade not held for at least a year. Let's make a rule that trades can only be entered into with a maturity of one year, or more. Yep, that's the ticket. Anyone who thinks weeklies are neutral to Apple's price today has a screw loose. The call wall has far more frequently sold Apple off than we've seen of any put walls. Why? Because more traders are betting on Apple to go higher. Institutions know a good thing when they see one, as only they have the shares (and power) to sell Apple off to leave you holding the bag at OPEX. One can say that Monday would be corrective from Friday and it has happened. But we've all seen days over the past 6 months where Apple trades opposite the market due to the concentrations of those playing the ponies with Apple, the horse with a jockey only on Monday - Tuesday. Take a look at stocks at www.theocc.com and see the lack of weekly option action on the likes of AMZN, GOOG, etc. I rest my case.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 25, 2013 10:16:17 GMT -8
Mercel wasn't calling for an option ban. He was just pointing out the pinning phenomenon. Weeklies make it harder for AAPL to make momo moves and easier to corral it within a price range on "slow news weeks".
There's always the danger of pinning types getting burned but since AAPL tends to trade on events/sentiment and it doesn't announce new stuff every month, well...the writing on the wall is easier to read some weeks. By certain points within the week anyway.
Still, if pain range was slightly beaten on Friday, that's a good thing.
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2013 10:19:33 GMT -8
Next week, and the following week, I want to see sufficient buying pressure to CRUSH the weekly option players out of this stock. It's so unbelievably frustrating to see AAPL tethered by weeklies. F'ing go to Vegas and don't come back. Yeah, and while we're at it, let's do away with Straddles and Strangles and Butterflies and ..... Oh, and let's do away with monthlies and quarterlies while we're at it. After all, they're just another flavor of short term trades. And we could ban swing trades, because, after all, they are short term as well. And if we ban swing trades, then we have to ban day trades, or any trade not held for at least a year. Let's make a rule that trades can only be entered into with a maturity of one year, or more. Yep, that's the ticket. Gregg, you were asking Lovey earlier in the week where Apple would close on Friday. I couldn't really believe you were asking, as it was pretty obvious options were driving this bus, not TA. In other words, you had a pretty safe answer on Wednesday. I'm not trying to be difficult, as everyone needs to vent once in a while and I'm no different. I suppose I could write some calls knowing the big boys would likely bail me out at the call wall. It's my preference that I don't. Either one is part of the solution or part of the problem, as least that's the way I see it at the risk of sounding sanctimonious about it.
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2013 10:28:00 GMT -8
Mercel wasn't calling for an option ban. He was just pointing out the pinning phenomenon. Weeklies make it harder for AAPL to make momo moves and easier to corral it within a price range on "slow news weeks". There's always the danger of pinning types getting burned but since AAPL tends to trade on events/sentiment and it doesn't announce new stuff every month, well...the writing on the wall is easier to read some weeks. By certain points within the week anyway. Still, if pain range was slightly beaten on Friday, that's a good thing. Yes, indeed, especially on a low volume day when it should have been easier to accomplish. I think next week will be a continuation of more AAPL progress, but we DO have some tentative weekly call walls at $450 and $460.
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2013 10:33:10 GMT -8
Red will appreciate the power of Tractor Beams, which is a great metaphor for weekly options.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 25, 2013 11:04:26 GMT -8
Just thinking out loud: Why put huge blocks of AAPL stock at risk of being assigned/with potential tax consequences (for those lucky souls who have 100s of shares) when you could put lesser capital at higher risk with bear call spreads or something?
(Yes, I'm aware I'm talking two very "different" strategies here, though the second one is much easier for people with even a few thousand to spare in their portfolio to handle.)
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Post by lovemyipad on May 25, 2013 11:32:59 GMT -8
Mav, most people don't know to do spreads, and they require a higher option approval level.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 25, 2013 12:48:55 GMT -8
While true, if you have some multiple of 100 shares of AAPL, Level 2-3 options approval should be attainable at some point.
There's also the e-minis now of course, which reduces capital requirements by 10x. But $4,450 in stock per mini is still quite a bit.
I'm also not sure if it "matters" that most people don't know how to use spreads, as long as the EOs can do their thing week after week...and EOs are nothing if not sophisticated.
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Post by Mav on May 25, 2013 12:50:57 GMT -8
Red will appreciate the power of Tractor Beams, which is a great metaphor for weekly options. +1 for tractor beams. One of the best pinning analogies out there. Speaking of "Apple events", Tim Cook opens the D conference next Tuesday.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 25, 2013 13:15:01 GMT -8
Red will appreciate the power of Tractor Beams, which is a great metaphor for weekly options. Tractor beams are excellent. So are deflectors for pesky Evil Overlords trying to take my shares. Phasers, photon torpedoes,...,all useful at certain times. Tuesday begins the 'official' run up to WWDC. A triumphant Tim Cook gets to talk about North Stars and all that.. Again. ( please Tim, give us a little leak, a tidbit).
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Post by JDSoCal on May 25, 2013 14:25:45 GMT -8
Just thinking out loud: Why put huge blocks of AAPL stock at risk of being assigned/with potential tax consequences (for those lucky souls who have 100s of shares) when you could put lesser capital at higher risk with bear call spreads or something? (Yes, I'm aware I'm talking two very "different" strategies here, though the second one is much easier for people with even a few thousand to spare in their portfolio to handle.) There's no real "capital at risk" when writing covered calls (unless you chicken out and BTC at a higher price). One gets a credit. If the stock closes above the strike after expiry, one keeps the credit, but one's shares may be called away at that strike price. Yes, you sell your shares at below market price, but that isn't lost capital, it's lost opportunity (assuming your shares aren't hugely underwater, but every week you collect premium lowers your cost basis). Yes, getting called away may involve tax issues, but so do any gains (and spreads are always taxed at short term rate anyway). And as someone has pointed out here (you?) Mondays typically have some dip as low as Friday's close, so the chances are one can get his shares back at a decent price. And that's what it's about, chance, or rather, probability. Because pain fails occasionally doesn't negate the huge premium one can take all year. And, most importantly, using the Poorman's Algo approach (generally, AAPL up M&T, ? on W, and down Th & F), you don't typically need to hold until expiry. In fact, I typically hold 1 or 2 days max. Sell high T or W, buy back low W or Th. On Thursday, I held for like 3-4 hours and made like a $4 credit (Fat Bastard Senator killed my Wed rally, so I did a rare Thurs STO). I think it's a great use of equity to sell above pain range calls against shares, if you have them, in fact, a waste not to do so. In fact, I even sell calls against my margined shares! So let's say I sell 450's for next week and you sell a 440-450 bear spread. If Apple closes at 450.01 on Friday, what do each of us get? Which one of us has real capital at risk? Which one can make money on theta alone? Call me crazy, I just like starting out with a credit and letting theta do some whittling for me. YMMV. I'll admit that I don't really want to be called away, for various reasons, but my stress level is magnitudes less than it was when I was on the other side (bull call spreads, or the age-you in-dog-years unhinged call. FTS!). On weekly expiries, I can get nervous. But with the call volume on monthlies, I am so confident, next month I might sell double my shares # of contracts open at the same time, i.e., nekkeds. More likely, I will sell the same strike twice, 1 week apart. BTW, I am way more afraid of selling puts and being put into shares! And I am always eager to hear different strategies Mav, so not an attack. I've found a willingness to learn and reexamine one's views may be equal to or even greater than wisdom in old age (but this belief is subject to change). As always, this is not advice, I am not a broker or financial planner, and I only trade in paper trade accts as all readers of AFB should do. That last part wasn't advice either.
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Post by macwire on May 25, 2013 14:27:25 GMT -8
Call me long term crazy but 705 maybe was a long term left shoulder of a inverted h and s. if we can push back to All time highs in 2 years. Maybe the ellioticians calling for a 1000 bullish wave completion are right!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 25, 2013 15:02:48 GMT -8
Call me long term crazy but 705 maybe was a long term left shoulder of a inverted h and s. if we can push back to All time highs in 2 years. Maybe the ellioticians calling for a 1000 bullish wave completion are right! Yes! I knew that head and shoulder thingy was too smallish. Big head! Big shoulders! Yes!
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Post by lovemyipad on May 25, 2013 15:29:00 GMT -8
Technicals for Non-Technicals Chart:
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2013 16:03:16 GMT -8
In case you missed this: Apple Brand Value #1. Again.
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