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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2013 21:04:06 GMT -8
I do like the simplicity. What we can do (features) is getting more and more complex. Navigating through the maze of all those features will be easier without a complex palette of colors to distract.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 26, 2013 21:04:09 GMT -8
Thanks for the recommendation, Mercel. I used my iPad and an Apple TV to show the video to my Mother-in-law and my wife's aunt while my wife and I were at her mom's house. Her mom and aunt are also Apple shareholders and we all enjoyed the video so much we ended up watching the next video on that page about Burlington High School. It was also excellent. For folks that are holding Apple for the long term, I think it reduces some of the sting of Apple's stock price drop over the last eight months to see such inspirational examples of the tremendous benefit of using Apple products in education around the world. At least it did for the four of us tonight.
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2013 21:20:38 GMT -8
Mercel, don't let the chatter get to you. Look again at the WWDC invite: Note: NOT MONOCHROME But yes, I freely admit that the monochrome-ness of OS X Mail and iTunes is bothersome. It's the gray gradient that really irks am not expecting Mr. Ive to disappoint. Let's hope it's a placeholder for something better. The WWDC invite is reassuring (not that crazy about the font though).
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2013 21:24:54 GMT -8
Thanks for the recommendation, Mercel. I used my iPad and an Apple TV to show the video to my Mother-in-law and my wife's aunt while my wife and I were at her mom's house. Her mom and aunt are also Apple shareholders and we all enjoyed the video so much we ended up watching the next video on that page about Burlington High School. It was also excellent. For folks that are holding Apple for the long term, I think it reduces some of the sting of Apple's stock price drop over the last eight months to see such inspirational examples of the tremendous benefit of using Apple products in education around the world. At least it did for the four of us tonight. YW. I'm really excited about iPad 5. Lighter, iPad mini aesthetic, thinner, upgraded internals and faster. It will be the biggest update yet! I hope Apple distills this education video to fit the 30 - 60 second time length (and just in time for school buying....). It's very inspirational -- kids are so lucky today.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 26, 2013 22:35:54 GMT -8
Hate the font, so totally agree with you there Mercel.
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Post by sponge on May 26, 2013 23:03:10 GMT -8
Think about it. After 6 years Android has caught up and kicking butt. Yet defections are moving 4:1 to iPhone. What happens when Apple comes out with a killer iPhone in 3 years? What happens next year when the iPhone 5 is free? What happens in the fall when the iPhone 4S is free? What happens when Apple introduces one more product to supplement the iOS ecosystem? What happens when Apple introduces a second product on top of that?
Do you see why TC is confident. The same confidence that SJ had when aapl hit 87 in 2009.
Patience my good friends for those who wait will be well rewarded.
Consumers in every industry recognize the value of Apple products. That's why the iPhone or iPad owner will buy other products and the Eco system only gets bigger and more powerful each year.
Samsung knows this and is pay developers to make Apps for their phones only. Google knows this now and realized they just waisted $12 billion on Motorola. Google glass is DOA just like the Surface.
I was out shopping this weekend with the wife. I lost track of the iPhones I saw, especially in the hands of people who could barely afford a car payment. Everyone sees the value of simplicity and functionality with the iOS and is willing to sacrifice something to own an Apple product with it.
Buy and Hold
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 26, 2013 23:44:29 GMT -8
You overestimate Apple's confidence in iPhone, I think. Tim sounded less than pleased with iPhone during the conference call for good reason. From the conference call (from Morningstar fiscal Q2 2013 CC transcripts)- www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-call-transcript.aspx?t=AAPL&qindex=4iPhone is a good product (still a big fan of my iPhone 5) but Apple MUST keep moving forward. Software, design, form factor, market reach. Of course Apple's constrained by product cycles and in some cases its own culture but don't think Apple isn't making halftime adjustments to combat Samsung and the rest of Android. As Tim himself said before the Senate subcommittee, it's not like the courts will really back the company up all that much. iPhone grew about 15% YOY on a sell-through basis last quarter. I don't think Tim is anywhere near ready to accept that as the new normal - and next quarter might be even worse. Apple knows it has a fight on its hands for smartphones and IMHO Tim is especially aware of it. Something is in the works to help this situation, hopefully we'll see the beginnings of that (beyond iPhone 5S) within 6-12 months:
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 6:39:21 GMT -8
Think about it. After 6 years Android has caught up and kicking butt. Yet defections are moving 4:1 to iPhone. What happens when Apple comes out with a killer iPhone in 3 years? What happens next year when the iPhone 5 is free? What happens in the fall when the iPhone 4S is free? What happens when Apple introduces one more product to supplement the iOS ecosystem? What happens when Apple introduces a second product on top of that? Do you see why TC is confident. The same confidence that SJ had when aapl hit 87 in 2009. Patience my good friends for those who wait will be well rewarded. Consumers in every industry recognize the value of Apple products. That's why the iPhone or iPad owner will buy other products and the Eco system only gets bigger and more powerful each year. Samsung knows this and is pay developers to make Apps for their phones only. Google knows this now and realized they just waisted $12 billion on Motorola. Google glass is DOA just like the Surface. I was out shopping this weekend with the wife. I lost track of the iPhones I saw, especially in the hands of people who could barely afford a car payment. Everyone sees the value of simplicity and functionality with the iOS and is willing to sacrifice something to own an Apple product with it. Buy and Hold Well if we have to wait 3 years for a killer iPhone, those options of yours are sure going to suck. Might want to stick to the buy and hold.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 8:04:33 GMT -8
After 6 years Android has caught up and kicking butt. Yet defections are moving 4:1 to iPhone. If mobile buyers are moving to iPhone at a 4:1 rate, then Android has not caught up, and is not kicking ass. It only appears that way because of the proliferation of cheap (as in sans profit), throw away models, everybody refers to as "smart phones", but are used as high end feature phones by the user. As an aside, I think handsets should be categorized by the job they were hired to do. If the user doesn't access data from his "smart phone", then the user purchased a feature phone. Now let's re-examine "smartphone" share.
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Post by sponge on May 27, 2013 8:59:27 GMT -8
Very good points Mav. I don't think TC is completely happy with the rates of growth, but he also understands the market.
Like Horace has stated. The iPhone is good enough for its intended purpose for many people. Thus we see so many 4 and 4S being sold. Upgrades have slowed down because of this issue.
It is easier now for Android and Smasung to out grow Apple because present smartphones, cheap or big are good enough for most people. What I meant by Android catching up, is that with enough marketing and cheap products they can outgrow Apple at this point. That's OK for the short term.
Yet even with this advantage by Samsung and the bigger issues of a lack of supply, Apple continues to cheap away at overall market share for phones in general.
The iPhone 5 was way ahead of its time in design. Apple sent back 8 million units in the first 4 months due to returns and poor manufacturing. That 4 month window is critical. When people spend $200+ for a phone and another $1700 for a two year contract, they will get very picky in the timing of upgrading to a smart phone or upgrading their existing iPhone. In the 4 month window if Apple does not sell their latests to the most people, then sales fall off considerably. People will then wait for the next one just to save money. This creates a bigger backlog of iPhones with each new iPhone release.
This is why we only grew 15% instead of 30%.
When the market is fully developed with smartphones and the only thing left is taking market share from each other, then we will see how strong the iPhone brand really is. Even in this hyper growth market we capture defections from Android, but at that saturation point the defections will be profound.
Apple is moving away from the iPhone but it will take a few years since there is so much growth left. They will continue to I prove all aspects of it and give good reasons for people to keep upgrading their iPhones or switching from Android.
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Post by tuffett on May 27, 2013 9:04:38 GMT -8
After 6 years Android has caught up and kicking butt. Yet defections are moving 4:1 to iPhone. If mobile buyers are moving to iPhone at a 4:1 rate, then Android has not caught up, and is not kicking ass. It only appears that way because of the proliferation of cheap (as in sans profit), throw away models, everybody refers to as "smart phones", but are used as high end feature phones by the user. As an aside, I think handsets should be categorized by the job they were hired to do. If the user doesn't access data from his "smart phone", then the user purchased a feature phone. Now let's re-examine "smartphone" share. Not really. Samsung's unit, revenue, profit and margins are all increasing. That screams high-end phone success. And let's face it, Samsung is all that matters in the Android space.
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Post by sponge on May 27, 2013 9:11:39 GMT -8
Think about it. After 6 years Android has caught up and kicking butt. Yet defections are moving 4:1 to iPhone. What happens when Apple comes out with a killer iPhone in 3 years? What happens next year when the iPhone 5 is free? What happens in the fall when the iPhone 4S is free? What happens when Apple introduces one more product to supplement the iOS ecosystem? What happens when Apple introduces a second product on top of that? Do you see why TC is confident. The same confidence that SJ had when aapl hit 87 in 2009. Patience my good friends for those who wait will be well rewarded. Consumers in every industry recognize the value of Apple products. That's why the iPhone or iPad owner will buy other products and the Eco system only gets bigger and more powerful each year. Samsung knows this and is pay developers to make Apps for their phones only. Google knows this now and realized they just waisted $12 billion on Motorola. Google glass is DOA just like the Surface. I was out shopping this weekend with the wife. I lost track of the iPhones I saw, especially in the hands of people who could barely afford a car payment. Everyone sees the value of simplicity and functionality with the iOS and is willing to sacrifice something to own an Apple product with it. Buy and Hold Well if we have to wait 3 years for a killer iPhone, those options of yours are sure going to suck. Might want to stick to the buy and hold. That's why 80% of my investments are in long stock. However it is clear the market will move aapl 20% in other direction each year regardless of earnings. So there is still plenty of money to be made on LEAPS if bought at the right time and sold at the right time. I don't think we have to wait 3 years for a killer iPhone. Each new one will be good enough for folks to upgrade and growth will continue. I just think that the big improvement will happen in 3 years. Apple works on big things 4 years in advance. If Apple can give us an iPhone that is 50% lighter, 30%thinner, waterproof, with glass that won't shatter with one drop, slightly bigger screen, a battery that lasts 20 hours, and a processor and onboard memory to handle the real Siri without Internet, we will have a monster on our hands. 2016 is the year in which I expect that iPhone to be released in.
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Post by sponge on May 27, 2013 9:19:28 GMT -8
..... Samsung's unit, revenue, profit and margins are all increasing. That screams high-end phone success. And let's face it, Samsung is all that matters in the Android space. I agree. And I think they will start to show a drop in all areas just like Apple in the next 12 months. However they are big enough that they can afford a drop for many years to come. Samsung has moved from being last to first in 5 years in all categories thanx to Apple. Horace has a great podcast last year that explains how Samsung learned from Apple and was able to duplicate the manufacturing to build a worthy brand and competitor smartphone. It does help they cheated but that is water under the bridge at this point.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on May 27, 2013 10:20:05 GMT -8
If mobile buyers are moving to iPhone at a 4:1 rate, then Android has not caught up, and is not kicking ass. It only appears that way because of the proliferation of cheap (as in sans profit), throw away models, everybody refers to as "smart phones", but are used as high end feature phones by the user. As an aside, I think handsets should be categorized by the job they were hired to do. If the user doesn't access data from his "smart phone", then the user purchased a feature phone. Now let's re-examine "smartphone" share. Not really. Samsung's unit, revenue, profit and margins are all increasing. That screams high-end phone success. And let's face it, Samsung is all that matters in the Android space. No, it screams a growing overall smartphone market. Did you read the articles by Ben Evans linked in here? PED sums up the rest, including the piece from John Kirk ( Android’s Market Share Is Literally A Joke) who has forgotten more about the mobile industry than all you bears combined are ever going to know. PED: Why doesn't Apple cut its prices and sell more iPhones?
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 10:36:26 GMT -8
You tell 'em JD. LOL. One picture tells a 1,000 words and this does it.
The business model of the manufacturers in the "All Other" unit category is not sustainable, as they race to the bottom of a very cold, wet and deep hole in the ground.
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Post by appledoc on May 27, 2013 10:40:01 GMT -8
Ben Evans's presentation was fabulous.
Thank you to any veterans reading the board. I foresee AAPL treating you well this week.
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Post by tuffett on May 27, 2013 11:13:55 GMT -8
Not really. Samsung's unit, revenue, profit and margins are all increasing. That screams high-end phone success. And let's face it, Samsung is all that matters in the Android space. No, it screams a growing overall smartphone market. Did you read the articles by Ben Evans linked in here? PED sums up the rest, including the piece from John Kirk ( Android’s Market Share Is Literally A Joke) who has forgotten more about the mobile industry than all you bears combined are ever going to know. PED: Why doesn't Apple cut its prices and sell more iPhones?First of all, I'm not a bear. Second of all, how does higher margin demonstrate a growing overall market? Higher margin indicates a greater percentage of high-end phones are being sold compared to previous mixes. I wish people would stop pretending that Android's (or Samsung's) only success is from cheap phones. Their Galaxy and Galaxy Note lines are getting more and more popular, especially internationally (where most of the remaining growth is). But keep your blinders on if you like. I'm not a bear. I am long and strong. I just have my eyes open. What your graphs show is that Apple makes more profit off fewer sales. I never contested that. How about you look at the same graph a year ago and see how Samsung is doing? Samsung is growing faster than Apple, both in volume and profit. Obviously their high-end phones are largely responsible for this fact.
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Post by tuffett on May 27, 2013 11:17:17 GMT -8
You tell 'em JD. LOL. One picture tells a 1,000 words and this does it. The business model of the manufacturers in the "All Other" unit category is not sustainable, as they race to the bottom of a very cold, wet and deep hole in the ground. I'm more worried about the Samsung part than the "all other."
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 11:18:07 GMT -8
Agreed...just cause we don't see AAPL at $2000/share doesn't make someone a bear. What would that graph had looked like one year ago? How about 2 years ago? Now compare it to the graph today and notice the trend.
I'm long AAPL as well, but I'm worried about the lack of new products and hoping Apple allows developers to bring Apps to AppleTV (and hopefully a soon to be released iTV) at this years WWDC. If Apple just continues to release updated versions of the same products, they'll be in trouble.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 27, 2013 11:35:15 GMT -8
sponge, "The iPhone 5 was way ahead of its time in design. Apple sent back 8 million units in the first 4 months due to returns and poor manufacturing" is quite the statement.
And wouldn't Apple have been more or less forced to make some oblique mention of this? Apple never has to my knowledge.
In any event, 8M units worth of demand wouldn't have been lost due to ramp-up hiccups.
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Post by sponge on May 27, 2013 12:07:58 GMT -8
sponge, "The iPhone 5 was way ahead of its time in design. Apple sent back 8 million units in the first 4 months due to returns and poor manufacturing" is quite the statement. And wouldn't Apple have been more or less forced to make some oblique mention of this? Apple never has to my knowledge. In any event, 8M units worth of demand wouldn't have been lost due to ramp-up hiccups. 8 million units was mentioned in a recent article I read. Don't have the link. But it makes sense with other stories about returns, manufacturing issues, and huge drop in orders in Dec and Feb. Some folks I have talked to also seem to confirm this as well. There were lots of returns due to scratches and sub par builds. I returned mine and I know 3 people as well. Apple does not have to mention it since the manufacture eats the cost. However increased warranty costs and lack of supply/demand balance all the way thru Dec, is the public info we have gotten from Apple. Less then stellar growth in 2nd quarter and poor guidance for this, also confirm that demand drops quickly as people wait for the next iPhone. I know many people who are simply waiting for the 4S to become free. Demand lost from those units only impacts the first two quarters and it will be made up next FY.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 12:24:25 GMT -8
I thought you said supply was the issue, not demand?
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Post by sponge on May 27, 2013 14:26:58 GMT -8
I thought you said supply was the issue, not demand? I have explained my view on this many times. If Apple were to change a few things they would not be able to meet demand. Instead they have major supply issues only 4 months out of the year. Given the just in time manufacturing that they use for all of their iOS products, supply is still an issue for certain parts at certain times. I still think Apple could open up the iPhone to more carriers but has chosen not to, and supply is one reason.
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Post by tuffett on May 27, 2013 14:55:55 GMT -8
I thought you said supply was the issue, not demand? He means that if Apple cut their prices in half or gave away their phones for free, they wouldn't be able to keep up with demand. Critical information...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 27, 2013 15:45:36 GMT -8
I'm sorry, "we had to return 8M bad iPhones" is a little too material to not disclose to shareholders.
And hey while we're on anecdotes I had two bad iPad 3s before the one I still have. Extrapolates to...bad luck on my part.
Apple never responded to Scratchgate/Scuffgate. Sometimes you just have to see past anecdotes and big Apple support threads.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 15:47:18 GMT -8
What your graphs show is that Apple makes more profit off fewer sales. I never contested that. How about you look at the same graph a year ago and see how Samsung is doing? Samsung is growing faster than Apple, both in volume and profit. Obviously their high-end phones are largely responsible for this fact. How in the hell can you make statements like that, when Samsung provides even less data about its operations than does Apple? Frankly, I don't think Apple is all that concerned about Samsung's patent violations. Sure Apple litigates in defense of its IP, but I think that's just to deter the more honorable, less wealthy firms from doing the same. Apple understands that no matter how well it does, there will always be a #2. Apple has insured that the weakest (technological innovation) among its competitors is that #2. Now, with the competition neutralized, Apple is going to make a 90º turn to the right, with technology that will take Samsung/Android two years (if ever) to copy.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 16:01:42 GMT -8
sponge, "The iPhone 5 was way ahead of its time in design. Apple sent back 8 million units in the first 4 months due to returns and poor manufacturing" is quite the statement. And wouldn't Apple have been more or less forced to make some oblique mention of this? Apple never has to my knowledge. In any event, 8M units worth of demand wouldn't have been lost due to ramp-up hiccups. Apple does not have to mention it since the manufacture eats the cost. A manufacturing glitch of that magnitude is material to revenue and by extension profits. It would have an adverse impact to results that Apple guided, and ostensibly investors acted on. Failure to report such a breakdown in manufacturing, no matter who has to pay the bill, would be a gross violation of management's fiduciary responsibility to its shareholders. That Apple has said nothing about it makes me believe the stories about 8 million defective iPhones is a myth. I would not be surprised if such a myth was originated by a competitor trying to besmirch Apple's products.
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 16:12:05 GMT -8
I'm sorry, "we had to return 8M bad iPhones" is a little too material to not disclose to shareholders. And hey while we're on anecdotes I had two bad iPad 3s before the one I still have. Extrapolates to...bad luck on my part. Apple never responded to Scratchgate/Scuffgate. Sometimes you just have to see past anecdotes and big Apple support threads. When Apple released iPad 2, the LG screens had terrible light bleed. I returned it for a better one. Now, I'm probably as particular a customer as anyone, but I'm not LOOKING for problems like some are with the LG/Samsung display issue of the retina MacBook Pros. Another example: The 17" MBP I purchased 2 years ago had one key that was noticeably brighter than the others (I think it was the number "4" key). I returned the first one but kept the second one that shared the problem, albeit to a lesser degree.
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Post by rickag on May 27, 2013 17:04:30 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on May 27, 2013 17:28:34 GMT -8
Futures green.
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