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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 3, 2013 2:54:21 GMT -8
Ah...nicely up in pre-market. Do we see 465 this week? Will we be off to the races before next week? Fingers crossed (which is not the best of strategies but will do it anyway).
By the way...CNBC has some AAPL headlines crossing their screen: Apple in Court Today in E-Book Case ... AND... That Apple is trying to tie all loose ends in order to launch the iRadio at their conference next week (CNBC says the WSJ is carrying the story).
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Post by appledoc on Jun 3, 2013 3:33:16 GMT -8
I promise to have more worthwhile additions to the board once I get settled in.
SMA100 is still trending down. Need to hold. Should get a cross of that and the SMA20 shortly.
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Post by macwire on Jun 3, 2013 4:13:31 GMT -8
I promise to have more worthwhile additions to the board once I get settled in. SMA100 is still trending down. Need to hold. Should get a cross of that and the SMA20 shortly. Did you move? Just moved myself. Dog and wife and two kids. What a miserable experience lol
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 3, 2013 4:15:04 GMT -8
I promise to have more worthwhile additions to the board once I get settled in. SMA100 is still trending down. Need to hold. Should get a cross of that and the SMA20 shortly. Welcome to your new home, Baby Doc!
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 3, 2013 4:30:46 GMT -8
Watch for potential "gap and crap" open. First preference is holding above Friday's close. Second preference is holding above daily SMA-100.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2013 5:42:03 GMT -8
Watch for potential "gap and crap" open. First preference is holding above Friday's close. Second preference is holding above daily SMA-100. You called that Open. Good job. I almost Closed my position at the Open. Wish I had.
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Post by macwire on Jun 3, 2013 5:48:38 GMT -8
Stay nimble. Risk off mode activated.
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Post by terps530 on Jun 3, 2013 5:58:50 GMT -8
grabbed a couple 460 weekly calls at 1.33 just about at 445.50 there as a 'let's see if i can get a daily bottom buy in' move
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Post by appledoc on Jun 3, 2013 6:09:44 GMT -8
Ugh. Need an RDR here.
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Post by lance on Jun 3, 2013 6:41:24 GMT -8
60 billion buyback on an average share price of 500 is a net removal of 120million shares from trading. If AAPL can simply maintain a 40billion in profits and is given a "fair" 12 p/e. That leaves basically 819million shares. So that makes approximately 48.8EPS. If you give it a conservative 12 P/E as your price target to sell that gives a 585 share price. When you do the basic calcs this buyback has destroyed the major bear case. Even a sell target of 10 p/e you get 488 price target. There are still major concerns with the company mainly in product side and margins and innovation etc, but if Apple can just maintain status quo ie zero growth (40billion in profits) 600 dollars a share seems realistic for a fair long term target (within a year) and if profits rise then you could see AAPL definitely in mid 600's long term (within a year)
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Post by lance on Jun 3, 2013 6:59:36 GMT -8
And keep in mind that calculation is based on an average buy price of 500. If the stock stays depressed in mid to low 400's or even high 300's Apple buys more shares and raises the EPS. Unless Apples profits fall through the roof. The buyback has bottomed the stock. But if continued profit declines occur. All bets are off. Apple needs to just maintain the 40billion and restore stability in earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2013 6:59:55 GMT -8
Major concerns about Apple? I don't have them. I suppose those listening to CNBC daily might reach a different conclusion, however. And CNBC is probably the worst source of news about Apple out there.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2013 7:07:03 GMT -8
Apparently, the market thinks Apple's product quality can be copied by HP, Samsung, Lenovo, etc. just by making the design similar. The copycats would be more credible if they did this:
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Post by sponge on Jun 3, 2013 7:09:07 GMT -8
Conventional wisdom based on past history is that we run up to WWDC and then sell off. Even if we move up 20 points from here, I would not characterize that as much of a run up since we have seen 465 before two times.
I am now inclined to believe that the stock will react in opposite direction then past precedent. We are trading similar to pre earnings in April.
This new theory will force me to hold still and not sell after WWDC regardless of how much we go up from here prior to event.
IRadio, new iOS look, a few small surprises and finally SDK for Apps on Apple TV with emphasis on gaming, should be enough to slowly move us beyond 460 and keep for 445 in the rear view mirror.
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Post by macwire on Jun 3, 2013 7:57:43 GMT -8
Sponge changed his mind again?
lol
Meanwhile. Holding 10 day ok. It's a real real weird trading day...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2013 8:20:34 GMT -8
OK, the daily intraday trading range is in. I wouldn't be looking for further lows at this point. In fact, I'm about to break a personal trading rule and commit more funds.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 3, 2013 8:30:42 GMT -8
Sold my April spreads for a very minimal gain. Retraced about 38.2% of the move from 419 to 457, so could just be healthy, but it doesn't feel that way.
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Post by terps530 on Jun 3, 2013 9:07:38 GMT -8
Sold my April spreads for a very minimal gain. Retraced about 38.2% of the move from 419 to 457, so could just be healthy, but it doesn't feel that way. giving up on the 465 for the week already!?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 3, 2013 9:43:44 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jun 3, 2013 10:03:04 GMT -8
Sold my April spreads for a very minimal gain. Retraced about 38.2% of the move from 419 to 457, so could just be healthy, but it doesn't feel that way. giving up on the 465 for the week already!? No. But risk/benefit isn't good enough for me to hold like I had planned. It's amazing how quickly charts can change. Daily MACDh now with bearish divergence, SMA20 isn't going to cross the SMA100 like I had hoped, and may come back down and have a bearish cross with the SMA50. These aren't things I like to see.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2013 10:19:04 GMT -8
Well we are $4 off the lows for the day anyways
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2013 10:44:57 GMT -8
Why is AAPL down?
The anti-trust/price fixing trial started today. Opening Statements will give the markets a clearer view of the issues. Once the jitters have been dealt with (today's selloff is an over reaction), I believe AAPL will return to its upward trend line.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 3, 2013 11:16:41 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jun 3, 2013 11:28:26 GMT -8
Interesting Twitter link by John Gruber over on Daring Fireball, showing a side by side comparison of recent WWDC iOS apps. Is this the new design aesthetic for iOS 7?
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Post by appledoc on Jun 3, 2013 11:41:15 GMT -8
Really nice recovery if this holds.
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Post by sponge on Jun 3, 2013 11:41:29 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Jun 3, 2013 11:44:35 GMT -8
More importantly, why is Sponge's karma down to 2? That's more volatile than a penny stock.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 3, 2013 11:59:22 GMT -8
Hey appledoc, we do have that 20/100-day cross, right?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 3, 2013 12:00:51 GMT -8
Not bad! Not awesome, but not bad!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2013 12:08:13 GMT -8
More importantly, why is Sponge's karma down to 2? That's more volatile than a penny stock. So is mine. Who'd I piss off (other than just about everyone at one time or another)?
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