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Post by sponge on Jun 6, 2013 7:28:13 GMT -8
In the past after big sell offs, aapl has stayed flat for 5 months. July should be the month we get over 480. Today we seem to be playing catchup to yesterday's 200 point drop. It is dissappointing to see us getting close to a week over week drop again, but by next Friday we should recover and be over 450. I thought next Friday was over $465? Correct. But since we have dropped from 457 to 437, I have been forced to readjust my expectations. Once we hit 465 again I will bailout of my calls and be ready to rebuy when we correct a fourth time. Should have done it last week in the mid 450s. Someone pointed out correctly that too many folks including myself were hoping to recover losses from Dec with a nice strong move into WWDC. That did not happen and caught many off guard. Lance is correct. Without big new products and YOY eps growth it will be a challenge to get over 500 any time soon.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 8:08:43 GMT -8
I've been saying we won't get anywhere until EPS Growth resumes for a while...well at least with the past few months no one can complain about PE Compression anymore, since we've been going through PE Expansion lately because of the shrinking EPS while the stock price has been pretty stable.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 6, 2013 8:09:17 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 8:09:57 GMT -8
We should see some kind of recovery by end of day. But it looks increasingly likely we'll land around $440+ tomorrow. But who knows... There's no Apple related news to explain the sell off this morning. Maybe Wall Street is taking Sponge's suggestion that Apple build cars seriously? Not sure I would characterize this as a selloff. Volume (declining) indicates buyers have moved to the sidelines.
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Post by sponge on Jun 6, 2013 8:21:37 GMT -8
Volume is way up compared to the previous three days. The selloff is gathering speed. It looked to stabilize 30 min ago but now we seem to be gravitating towards 435. I am hopeful we recover and close above 438 today and 440 tomorrow. Will be forced to do some selling tomorrow, but that is par for the course with aapl at the bottom for the year.
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Post by po1nt on Jun 6, 2013 8:40:04 GMT -8
Moment of truth... Both SPY and AAPL bouncing off 50-Day.....
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Post by tuffett on Jun 6, 2013 8:44:05 GMT -8
I've been saying for a while now that China is so much more important than the USA. Apple really needs to get on China Mobile, regardless of their plans for a less expensive new phone.
US data is great but most of the market and the money is international - a trend that will only continue to grow.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jun 6, 2013 8:49:15 GMT -8
Don't forget Apple is still poised to release its worst EPS since September 2011 this quarter. So for all the uber bulls on here because of the buyback and dividend, just be patient and careful. EPS will be 7ish so don't expect the stock to run up much this quarter or next with no new products. That should already be taken into account though. And...shouldn't an accelerated buyback give EPS a bump? Or perhaps it's already included in guidance.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jun 6, 2013 8:59:05 GMT -8
What? Sales are down QoQ in the quarter immediately following the New Year? No way.
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Post by sponge on Jun 6, 2013 9:02:45 GMT -8
That should already be taken into account though. And...shouldn't an accelerated buyback give EPS a bump? Or perhaps it's already included in guidance. I don't see the benefits of buy back to be felt for 3 years. It helped establish a floor above 425.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 9:11:21 GMT -8
That should already be taken into account though. And...shouldn't an accelerated buyback give EPS a bump? Or perhaps it's already included in guidance. Apple hasn't guided EPS since October earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 9:13:07 GMT -8
That should already be taken into account though. And...shouldn't an accelerated buyback give EPS a bump? Or perhaps it's already included in guidance. ? Apple doesn't issue EPS guidance anymore.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 9:17:57 GMT -8
And...shouldn't an accelerated buyback give EPS a bump? Or perhaps it's already included in guidance. I don't see the benefits of buy back to be felt for 3 years. It helped establish a floor above 425. FULL benefit of the buyback won't be felt for 3 years.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 9:24:31 GMT -8
People can attribute today's negative trading to a whole family of catalysts. But that doesn't explain the selloff in the Dow, S&P, NAZ and Russell indexes.
AAPL is reacting to a broader selloff, and that requires a macro event.
I think concern over meh economic growth rates, pending jobless report, and how the Fed is going to react are driving the current broad market action.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 9:27:50 GMT -8
People can attribute today's negative trading to a whole family of catalysts. But that doesn't explain the selloff in the Dow, S&P, NAZ and Russell indexes. AAPL is reacting to a broader selloff, and that requires a macro event. I think concern over meh economic growth rates, pending jobless report, and how the Fed is going to react are driving the current broad market action. Except the market is down 0.5%, while AAPL is currently down 2.0%
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Post by rickag on Jun 6, 2013 9:48:30 GMT -8
And...shouldn't an accelerated buyback give EPS a bump? Or perhaps it's already included in guidance. I don't see the benefits of buy back to be felt for 3 years. It helped establish a floor above 425. Why do you think the floor is above $425?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 9:49:24 GMT -8
People can attribute today's negative trading to a whole family of catalysts. But that doesn't explain the selloff in the Dow, S&P, NAZ and Russell indexes. AAPL is reacting to a broader selloff, and that requires a macro event. I think concern over meh economic growth rates, pending jobless report, and how the Fed is going to react are driving the current broad market action. Except the market is down 0.5%, while AAPL is currently down 2.0% Which is typical of any equity with a high beta, such as AAPL.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 9:49:39 GMT -8
I don't see the benefits of buy back to be felt for 3 years. It helped establish a floor above 425. Why do you think the floor is above $425? LOL
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Post by ibuyer on Jun 6, 2013 10:06:10 GMT -8
Why do you think the floor is above $425? LOL LOL^2
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Post by ibuyer on Jun 6, 2013 10:12:20 GMT -8
And...shouldn't an accelerated buyback give EPS a bump? Or perhaps it's already included in guidance. ? Apple doesn't issue EPS guidance anymore. Mercel, They guide Net Income in a range since share count is might be changing.
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Post by prazan on Jun 6, 2013 10:15:17 GMT -8
Sticking with my 433-439 target before we take off. Looks like we're headed to the 50 day, which is at 434. Good call.
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Post by applemuncher on Jun 6, 2013 10:16:01 GMT -8
Except the market is down 0.5%, while AAPL is currently down 2.0% Which is typical of any equity with a high beta, such as AAPL. Apple's beta is less than 1, or less than the market. It is not a high beta.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 6, 2013 10:17:30 GMT -8
Bloomberg reporting Apple will begin to take in older iPhones in trade to boost sales
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Post by sponge on Jun 6, 2013 10:18:52 GMT -8
I don't see the benefits of buy back to be felt for 3 years. It helped establish a floor above 425. Why do you think the floor is above $425? Two reasons. The charts folks identified that number as the base from which aapl took off in 2012. It is also the 10 p/e that most identify as the bottom. I felt 440 would be the next bottom, but dropping below that is just part of the market volatile moves that are expected at times.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 6, 2013 10:18:57 GMT -8
Bloomberg reporting Apple will take in older iPhones in trade to boost sales
??
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Post by sponge on Jun 6, 2013 10:19:51 GMT -8
Sticking with my 433-439 target before we take off. Looks like we're headed to the 50 day, which is at 434. Good call. I agree. I recall you saying that
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 6, 2013 10:22:11 GMT -8
Bloomberg reporting Apple will begin to take in older iPhones in trade to boost sales AT&T has been doing this for a while.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2013 10:26:26 GMT -8
Which is typical of any equity with a high beta, such as AAPL. Apple's beta is less than 1, or less than the market. It is not a high beta. Then it has tightened since I last looked at it (was 1.4x). I suspect that as AAPL goes up, its beta will follow.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 6, 2013 10:31:14 GMT -8
Bloomberg reporting Apple will begin to take in older iPhones in trade to boost sales It can be spun that way. Or view it as Apple capitalizing on the massive volume of customers who sell their old iPhones to 3rd party vendors when upgrading. This is a huge plus IMO.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 6, 2013 10:34:05 GMT -8
Except the market is down 0.5%, while AAPL is currently down 2.0% Which is typical of any equity with a high beta, such as AAPL. Apple's beta is not 4. This selloff is not just because of the broad market. It's market, technicals, news, injunction and who knows what else.
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