icam
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Post by icam on Jun 7, 2013 11:21:35 GMT -8
iPad - I'm seeing the MACD-h flip to positive (two tiny green bars). Does this qualify as a "flip back"?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 7, 2013 11:22:22 GMT -8
Pain range was 435-450 to me (it's subjective, of course), but there was plenty of pain to go around up to 460.
440+ is what I'd hope to see. 442+, mayyyybe a small trade.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 7, 2013 11:23:48 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jun 7, 2013 11:24:38 GMT -8
appledoc, you seem to have "bullish divergence" from where iPad's at. What's the confidence boost for you? The EW roadmap and the bounce? Holding the 50-day? Personally, I'm pretty neutral on AAPL, though I might try a trade on strength at the close despite the "relative weakness" to the SPY. EDIT: Hmm...actually, IF AAPL has enough strength into the close, the daily MACD-h might provide a tiny bit of reason for me to trade to the upside. We'll see. EW roadmap + lots of technicals Today happened exactly as I said it would. Hit just below the low end of my target range and reversed course strongly. I get giddy when things go as I hoped. The non-EW technicals don't look terrible. Starting with the daily, the SMA50 is holding again. Bullish cross of EMA13 and SMA20 two days ago. Most moving averages within a few points overhead, making them easy to grab if we get a decent day Monday. Might get a bullish cross of the SMA20 and SMA100 next week if we're lucky. Yes, MACDh is on the wrong side of the zero line and still diverging, but that can happen with retraces, most recently on the way to 419. Looking at the weekly, there was the bullish cross of the EMA13 and SMA20 last week. We're holding the SMA8 and 10, and fighting for the SMA20. We've been building good mid-channel support over the last 4 weeks. MACDh is still rising. Of course, I could be completely wrong.
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icam
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Post by icam on Jun 7, 2013 11:28:42 GMT -8
I never do this, but I'll predict a $444.73 close. Perfect location for a confusion sandwich just below the 100 day, yet staying above the 20 day.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 7, 2013 11:31:48 GMT -8
Agreed about all the "we're getting there!" signals, appledoc.
Can AAPL hold at least 441 into the close...every little bit of micro support helps.
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Post by sponge on Jun 7, 2013 12:00:19 GMT -8
I say we close at 442 today. When I said this we were at 437. I will take anything above 442. And for the record. Don't expect a finger print iPHone this year. No matter how big of an expert you know who thinks he is.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 7, 2013 12:00:36 GMT -8
Bought a small NFLX bullish butterfly (as I continue to learn butterfly trading).
Bought some Aug AAPL calls at the close. I might not hold for very long.
I'm just trading here and there. Just don't have any conviction for any longer timeframes.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 7, 2013 12:02:29 GMT -8
A handful of Jan 14 550/560 BCS.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Jun 7, 2013 12:16:08 GMT -8
A handful of Jan 14 550/560 BCS. Is that a real short-term play for you or a hold-for-a-few-months proposition? Jus' curious...
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Jun 7, 2013 12:25:53 GMT -8
I keep fighting the urge to commit more money here in a risky way, such as ATM 2015 leaps, cause I feel _purdy_ strongly that the next year and a half will be fun to watch for the long and patient. That annoying little voice inside, though, says to buy shares instead, receive the dividend, think LT, diversify and eat more fibre... Stupid little voice.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 7, 2013 12:34:23 GMT -8
A handful of Jan 14 550/560 BCS. Is that a real short-term play for you or a hold-for-a-few-months proposition? Jus' curious... Hold. But that's always subject to change. I'm anticipating clearing 465 soon. If we were to fail before then, I'd dump.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 7, 2013 12:35:34 GMT -8
I say we close at 442 today. When I said this we were at 437. I will take anything above 442. And for the record. Don't expect a finger print iPHone this year. No matter how big of an expert you know who thinks he is. If you are referring to me "Mr. 360 degrees of surround sound noise", I AM NOT making a prediction on a finger print phone this year. I don't like pretending to know things I don't. My only point is that your reasons for one not coming are utter nonsense. Just like pretty much everything else you pontificate on.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2013 12:38:52 GMT -8
My sister just drove from Coeur d'Alene, ID to San Bernardino, CA. Would have been an east freeway drive except for some stops she had to make along the way in Oregon. SIRI prompted her on upcoming changes/transitions etc a couple times before the transition occurred, took her directly to her planned stops. If she made unplanned changes along the way SIRI automatically updated her route and got her back on track. SIRI worked flawlessly the entire drive. Dedicated GPS systems are toast and Google is in danger of losing its grip.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 7, 2013 12:54:03 GMT -8
My sister just drove from Coeur d'Alene, ID to San Bernardino, CA. Would have been an east freeway drive except for some stops she had to make along the way in Oregon. SIRI prompted her on upcoming changes/transitions etc a couple times before the transition occurred, took her directly to her planned stops. If she made unplanned changes along the way SIRI automatically updated her route and got her back on track. SIRI worked flawlessly the entire drive. Dedicated GPS systems are toast and Google is in danger of losing its grip. Apple maps has a long way to go...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 7, 2013 12:57:20 GMT -8
I still like Google Maps better for my navigation needs, though Apple Maps is better at giving reminders before transitions.
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Post by nkmho on Jun 7, 2013 13:00:48 GMT -8
My sister just drove from Coeur d'Alene, ID to San Bernardino, CA. Would have been an east freeway drive except for some stops she had to make along the way in Oregon. SIRI prompted her on upcoming changes/transitions etc a couple times before the transition occurred, took her directly to her planned stops. If she made unplanned changes along the way SIRI automatically updated her route and got her back on track. SIRI worked flawlessly the entire drive. Dedicated GPS systems are toast and Google is in danger of losing its grip. Apple maps has a long way to go... In my mind, it's "Apple maps has a long Waze to go..."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 7, 2013 13:02:59 GMT -8
'Cept Apple didn't bid for Waze, according to Tim at the D conference.
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icam
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Post by icam on Jun 7, 2013 13:08:49 GMT -8
My sister just drove from Coeur d'Alene, ID to San Bernardino, CA. Would have been an east freeway drive except for some stops she had to make along the way in Oregon. SIRI prompted her on upcoming changes/transitions etc a couple times before the transition occurred, took her directly to her planned stops. If she made unplanned changes along the way SIRI automatically updated her route and got her back on track. SIRI worked flawlessly the entire drive. Dedicated GPS systems are toast and Google is in danger of losing its grip. Apple maps has a long way to go... + 1
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 7, 2013 13:22:30 GMT -8
iPad - I'm seeing the MACD-h flip to positive (two tiny green bars). Does this qualify as a "flip back"? What timeframe? I am most concerned about daily right now.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 7, 2013 13:25:54 GMT -8
I keep fighting the urge to commit more money here in a risky way, such as ATM 2015 leaps, cause I feel _purdy_ strongly that the next year and a half will be fun to watch for the long and patient. That annoying little voice inside, though, says to buy shares instead, receive the dividend, think LT, diversify and eat more fibre... Stupid little voice. Listen to the annoying little voice.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 7, 2013 13:47:18 GMT -8
Well, it's clearly not the daily MACD-h. I think most technical traders are probably focused on the daily as of right now.
2015 LEAPs at-the-money aren't necessarily risky, but they are packed with time premium. Of course it depends on your definition of risk. On the "absolute" scale, LEAPs are options with all that implies (high risk, "lower" the more in-the-money/less premium you go).
I might look to longer-term options or more shares if there was some visibility on AAPL in the horizon. Personally, I just don't see any, so I'm not. "Second-half story" isn't enough for me to get anything concrete. YMMV, of course.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2013 13:54:00 GMT -8
Placed a stink bid for June Wk2 $425/$430 BCSs at $2.45 at the Close. Logic If you look at the intraday lows since Monday last you see: Monday $442.48 Tuesday $447.39 Wed'Day $443.71 Thursday $434.05 Friday $432.77 AAPL Closed today $9.xx off its intraday low. I think, all things considered, that this is bullish going into next week. Max Pain maximum-pain.com/max-pain.aspx is between $440/$445. AAPL's PC Ratio has been very bullish for the past 7 trading days. For the week just expired new Calls outnumber new Puts by 6:1. AAPL's 5 DMA trading range is ~$9.50. If we allocate half that range above today's Close, and half below we get a tentative Monday low of $437.00. My order requires that AAPL decline on Monday to the very low $437s to get filled. If it drops further (say another $2.00) I may add to my Order. To be a successful trade AAPL need Close above $430 next Friday. I think the jobs report, the anti-trust trial, and Galaxy S4 weakness will get absorbed by WS before then, acting as a collective catalyst for AAPL to Close above $435 on a bad day. Of course none of this means squat if something unforeseen (like this past week did) happens.
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icam
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Post by icam on Jun 7, 2013 14:02:36 GMT -8
iPad - I'm seeing the MACD-h flip to positive (two tiny green bars). Does this qualify as a "flip back"? What timeframe? I am most concerned about daily right now. Intraday>hourly I'm sure I'm doing it wrong.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2013 14:12:19 GMT -8
My sister just drove from Coeur d'Alene, ID to San Bernardino, CA. Would have been an east freeway drive except for some stops she had to make along the way in Oregon. SIRI prompted her on upcoming changes/transitions etc a couple times before the transition occurred, took her directly to her planned stops. If she made unplanned changes along the way SIRI automatically updated her route and got her back on track. SIRI worked flawlessly the entire drive. Dedicated GPS systems are toast and Google is in danger of losing its grip. Apple maps has a long way to go... I'm not so sure that's true. Public perception (created by a rabid media) OTOH has a long way to go. I say rabid media because they were all over Apple Maps problems, but haven't reported a single word about the shot outs since then wherein Apple Maps got people where they were going faster and with fewer errors than dedicated GPS systems and Google Maps. I have Google Maps on my iPad and find Apple Maps to be faster and more accurate, but that's just me.
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