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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 8:20:48 GMT -8
I don't get excited about much anymore.....maybe the early bird special at Sizzler.... But this WWDC has me wound up. I feel that Apple has been biding its time since last Fall building the master strategy. We've seen none of it....just hints and supposition.....but tomorrow we will see much more of the roadmap. All the TBD sessions in the big room has me intrigued.... I want lots of Jony...a fair amount of Eddy...and Tim at his best. And I want Wall Street caught on its heels. I think Apple wants to push back hard on the treatment it has received over the past 6 months. On that point, Apple could have used all the quiet time to really load up on new software/hardware/services. And if you want to see new Macs, you need to wish for seeing Phil Schiller too. He's very good on stage.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 8:22:28 GMT -8
Finally, I should have included iWork and iLife in my predictions -- I'm giving it a 90% chance for an appearance.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 9, 2013 8:40:43 GMT -8
Jony on stage could be interesting. Even unpredictable.
We'll see. Without Forstall there's Federighi as chief presenter. Though he could of course have one of his own lieutenants demo the iOS or OS X side.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 9, 2013 9:09:51 GMT -8
Jony on stage could be interesting. Even unpredictable. We'll see. Without Forstall there's Federighi as chief presenter. Though he could of course have one of his own lieutenants demo the iOS or OS X side. I'd forgotten that Jony has been on stage before... back in 2008 for the introduction of the first unibody MacBook. He does a very good presentation; his enthusiasm seems genuine and he appears to have memorised his piece, rather than relying on an autocue... which creates a greater connection with the audience (although the majority only seem to have eyes for their laptop screens rather than the stage): www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JLjldgjuKI...and it's always good to hear "aluminium" pronounced correctly
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 9, 2013 9:26:05 GMT -8
Good point. I'd forgotten about that, though technically he felt very much at home in the Apple Town Hall room.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jun 9, 2013 9:29:34 GMT -8
Just some thoughts on a Sunday morning......
One aspect of Tim's comments at AllThingsD seems to have escaped much attention from the press and to me it was very intriguing. I believe that twice he referred to the intersection of software, hardware and services. This emphasis on "intersection" seemed to me to be as important as his reference to "new product categories".
I spent about 10 years managing new product development in high tech. During that time, it seemed like an 18 month development cycle was pretty difficult to compress. You could introduce products that were incrementally different faster, but to make something truly new in less than that amount of time was very hard. If this is still true, then our current drought of new product introductions is just the consequence of allowing everything to be updated at once last fall.
This would seem like a marketing blunder unless something astonishing is coming. Given Apples success in marketing, I tend to favor this explanation. So what could it be? What hints do we have? Well, we have "new product categories", "intersection of hardware, software and services", investment in huge data centers, and plans to hire a significant number of new employees. Does this sound like a company that has run out of ideas?
I had a great deal of admiration for Steve Jobs, especially when he started Next. But I do not think his contribution was technical. He was no more the technical visionary than Gates was a programmer. His contribution was in taking others ideas and making them a reality. This is no small contribution. Despite the brilliant minds at Xerox PARC, the Star was a failure. Alan Kay had an "iPad" in the 1970's but it took Jobs to make these a commercial success. I mention this because i think that Apple as it is now is in a stronger position than ever to innovate and to lead us int the next paradigm of computing.
I sometimes get glimpses of what this might be. But just glimpses. If you extrapolate the increase in data in the cloud, increased compute power in the device, faster network speed and ubiquitous availability, and more sophisticated access (I am thinking "Siri on Steroids"), all these converge to an "intelligent companion" who is indispensable. Trying to compete without this resource would be like bringing a knife to a gunfight.
I cannot really imagine a world in which everyone is an expert in everything. What happens when everyone is empowered in this way? I don't know, but I think it could be wonderful
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 9, 2013 9:44:00 GMT -8
WWDC Platforms Kickoff 2011 - spotlights Federighi. He's got nerd cred, a sense of humor and quite good delivery. Recommended if you're curious about Apple's software platform leader.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 10:16:56 GMT -8
It reminds me the first reaction to the iPhone 4 when it was found in a bar. Most people [nerds] did not like it. Yet it was a hit among the non nerd masses. Generally speaking, sites like this one, are the worst at predicting success or failure among Apple's products. Its one of the reasons that product prognostications give me heartburn.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 9, 2013 10:21:02 GMT -8
Generally speaking, sites like this one, are the worst at predicting success or failure among Apple's products. Its one of the reasons that product prognostications give me heartburn. Same goes for stock price.
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Post by sponge on Jun 9, 2013 10:26:04 GMT -8
Generally speaking, sites like this one, are the worst at predicting success or failure among Apple's products. Its one of the reasons that product prognostications give me heartburn. Same goes for stock price. LOL However in my defense I have been preaching buying and holding since 2007. We have increased 4x since then and in the next 6 years I expect the same from this level.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 10:32:13 GMT -8
Just some thoughts on a Sunday morning...... One aspect of Tim's comments at AllThingsD seems to have escaped much attention from the press and to me it was very intriguing. I believe that twice he referred to the intersection of software, hardware and services. This emphasis on "intersection" seemed to me to be as important as his reference to "new product categories". I spent about 10 years managing new product development in high tech. During that time, it seemed like an 18 month development cycle was pretty difficult to compress. You could introduce products that were incrementally different faster, but to make something truly new in less than that amount of time was very hard. If this is still true, then our current drought of new product introductions is just the consequence of allowing everything to be updated at once last fall. This would seem like a marketing blunder unless something astonishing is coming. Given Apples success in marketing, I tend to favor this explanation. So what could it be? What hints do we have? Well, we have "new product categories", "intersection of hardware, software and services", investment in huge data centers, and plans to hire a significant number of new employees. Does this sound like a company that has run out of ideas? I had a great deal of admiration for Steve Jobs, especially when he started Next. But I do not think his contribution was technical. He was no more the technical visionary than Gates was a programmer. His contribution was in taking others ideas and making them a reality. This is no small contribution. Despite the brilliant minds at Xerox PARC, the Star was a failure. Alan Kay had an "iPad" in the 1970's but it took Jobs to make these a commercial success. I mention this because i think that Apple as it is now is in a stronger position than ever to innovate and to lead us int the next paradigm of computing. I sometimes get glimpses of what this might be. But just glimpses. If you extrapolate the increase in data in the cloud, increased compute power in the device, faster network speed and ubiquitous availability, and more sophisticated access (I am thinking "Siri on Steroids"), all these converge to an "intelligent companion" who is indispensable. Trying to compete without this resource would be like bringing a knife to a gunfight. I cannot really imagine a world in which everyone is an expert in everything. What happens when everyone is empowered in this way? I don't know, but I think it could be wonderful Had to 'exalt' this. And then there was this, "then our current drought of new product introductions is just the consequence of allowing everything to be updated at once last fall". That got me to thinking how Apple allocates human resources. You may be working on OSX today, but next week you're working on iOS, and the week after Garage Band integration via iCloud. Things don't really change that fast, but what if Apple wanted to clear the decks to finish something new in time for WWDC and the Christmas quarter of 2013. The future need for even more engineers could be the result of an all hands effort begun about a year ago. I have no idea what that could be, nor do I care. It is enough for me to trust management's management of the Company's resources.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 9, 2013 10:36:24 GMT -8
Same goes for stock price. LOL However in my defense I have been preaching buying and holding since 2007. We have increased 4x since then and in the next 6 years I expect the same from this level. Your 442 call on Friday morning earns you the dartboard of the week award!!!
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Post by sponge on Jun 9, 2013 10:43:03 GMT -8
LOL However in my defense I have been preaching buying and holding since 2007. We have increased 4x since then and in the next 6 years I expect the same from this level. Your 442 call on Friday morning earns you the dartboard of the week award!!![/quote I am always a dart board. But I put my money where my mouth is. So I either go down with the ship or bask in the glory of victory. I do have a good feeling about the next three years. Don't care much what we do in the next 12 months.
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Post by sponge on Jun 9, 2013 10:53:54 GMT -8
Oil is up 1.58%. Futures could open strong in the next 3 hours.
I think this time we will lead the market tomorrow.
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Post by rickag on Jun 9, 2013 13:06:00 GMT -8
Generally speaking, sites like this one, are the worst at predicting success or failure among Apple's products. Its one of the reasons that product prognostications give me heartburn. Same goes for stock price. LOL albeit through my tears
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 13:10:19 GMT -8
Watering yesterday's new plantings and this thought struck me like a thunderbolt.
The difference between Apple and all other tech firms is simple. All others develop features without a thought given to what JOB those features fulfill. Apple develops features that satisfies a JOB, then looks for ways to make the feature do the JOB better. In the process, Apple says NO to a lot of "cool" features but that are still looking for a JOB.
Initially, the Apple product looks to be inferior, because it has fewer 'features', but the 'features' it does have do their respective jobs better than the competition. This is why the Maps launch caused so much controversy. Everyone expects Apple's 'features' to work better than competing products. Maps didn't, and that was the story, a "man bites dog" classic.
The fact that Maps has greatly improved since its initial launch has not been reported, because Apple products are expected to improve. Windows Vista, Windows RT, HTC One, Galaxy SIV, etc, didn't get as much press (in relation to Apple 'gaffes') when they disappointed, because they weren't expected to do well in the same way that Apple products are.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 9, 2013 14:47:23 GMT -8
Just some thoughts on a Sunday morning...... One aspect of Tim's comments at AllThingsD seems to have escaped much attention from the press and to me it was very intriguing. I believe that twice he referred to the intersection of software, hardware and services. This emphasis on "intersection" seemed to me to be as important as his reference to "new product categories". I spent about 10 years managing new product development in high tech. During that time, it seemed like an 18 month development cycle was pretty difficult to compress. You could introduce products that were incrementally different faster, but to make something truly new in less than that amount of time was very hard. If this is still true, then our current drought of new product introductions is just the consequence of allowing everything to be updated at once last fall. This would seem like a marketing blunder unless something astonishing is coming. Given Apples success in marketing, I tend to favor this explanation. So what could it be? What hints do we have? Well, we have "new product categories", "intersection of hardware, software and services", investment in huge data centers, and plans to hire a significant number of new employees. Does this sound like a company that has run out of ideas? I had a great deal of admiration for Steve Jobs, especially when he started Next. But I do not think his contribution was technical. He was no more the technical visionary than Gates was a programmer. His contribution was in taking others ideas and making them a reality. This is no small contribution. Despite the brilliant minds at Xerox PARC, the Star was a failure. Alan Kay had an "iPad" in the 1970's but it took Jobs to make these a commercial success. I mention this because i think that Apple as it is now is in a stronger position than ever to innovate and to lead us int the next paradigm of computing. I sometimes get glimpses of what this might be. But just glimpses. If you extrapolate the increase in data in the cloud, increased compute power in the device, faster network speed and ubiquitous availability, and more sophisticated access (I am thinking "Siri on Steroids"), all these converge to an "intelligent companion" who is indispensable. Trying to compete without this resource would be like bringing a knife to a gunfight. I cannot really imagine a world in which everyone is an expert in everything. What happens when everyone is empowered in this way? I don't know, but I think it could be wonderful This was very insightful. Often we are unable to see that which is right before our eyes. Great post.
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Post by michelc on Jun 9, 2013 15:19:20 GMT -8
Watering yesterday's new plantings and this thought struck me like a thunderbolt. The difference between Apple and all other tech firms is simple. All others develop features without a thought given to what JOB those features fulfill. Apple develops features that satisfies a JOB, then looks for ways to make the feature do the JOB better. In the process, Apple says NO to a lot of "cool" features but that are still looking for a JOB. +1 Great post
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 16:10:39 GMT -8
Same goes for stock price. LOL However in my defense I have been preaching buying and holding since 2007. We have increased 4x since then and in the next 6 years I expect the same from this level. Ya, and how would you have done if you had only bought and held instead of buying on margin and purchasing options?? Instead you bought high and sold low.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 17:16:46 GMT -8
John Gruber says the training wheels can come off iOS and the iPhone. And what this means exactly is anyone's guess. From iOS1 - iOS6, it's been iterate, iterate and iterate. Is this something more? John seems to think so. We don't have much longer to wait. daringfireball.net/2013/06/wwdc_2013_expectations
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Post by sponge on Jun 9, 2013 17:34:06 GMT -8
LOL However in my defense I have been preaching buying and holding since 2007. We have increased 4x since then and in the next 6 years I expect the same from this level. Ya, and how would you have done if you had only bought and held instead of buying on margin and purchasing options?? Instead you bought high and sold low. I am still OK. Will recover at $800 and do quite well at $1400 in about 6 years.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 17:50:18 GMT -8
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Post by prazan on Jun 9, 2013 18:10:54 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 9, 2013 18:38:04 GMT -8
Gruber has pretty much zero clue about iOS 7, so take his guesses with a few grains of salt.
The training wheels can't come off in terms of elegant simplicity, user-friendliness. Since Apple is the computing company for the rest of us, it'll _always_ have "training wheels" in a manner of speaking.
Is there room for advancement, sure. Will iOS 7 be a nice step forward, I'm quite sure of that. But I'm "bothered" (note the quotes) by the "expectations" that iOS 7 will be some really big advance. If I had to guess, I'd say iOS 7 will continue the True Year of Transition(tm) theme, with iOS 7 being somewhere between "Snow Leopard" (mostly interface refinements and maybe some new groundwork for the future) and "Lion" (introducing fairly significant conceptual changes and features). I'm open to being surprised, but Federighi had to take over and potentially "undo" some of Forstall's work, while Ive never (directly) worked on software interfaces and only started at the post about seven months ago, while iOS 7 was presumably already in development.
This is meaningless longer-term. Apple continues to make the moves it needs to in order to stay vibrant (read: maintain a vibrant, mostly happy userbase/third-party dev community/third-party ecosystem). It just never fails to amuse how some pundits and others forget just how practical and realistic Apple is, for all its innovative capacity.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 9, 2013 18:54:35 GMT -8
And let's not forget, Apple's still in crisis.WSJ: NYT: It's always the Golden Age of tech reporting when it comes to Apple. EDIT: Just for fun...looking over the WWDC banners, since Apple was bound to run out of cats AND point numbers fairly soon, I'm guessing Apple's dispensing with 10.9. But no need to get too creative with naming, it's finally time for Mac OS 11. (Cue the long-awaited "take it to 11" jokes.)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 19:04:17 GMT -8
The WSJ and NYT have a axe to grind against Apple. Does Murdoch still swing at Apple over The Daily fiasco? What is with the NYT? Not enough advertising?
Do both expect Apple is going to disrupt their industry in a bigger way?
The negative bias is so obvious there MUST be some motivation behind it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 9, 2013 19:13:59 GMT -8
It could just be some compulsion to hate on Apple. I mean, what'd Apple ever do to Ihnatko, right? Same with Pogue and Mossberg. Heck, BLam of Gizmodo himself admitted he was a real jerk to Jobs (long after the fact). thewirecutter.com/2011/10/steve-jobs-was-always-kind-to-me-or-regrets-of-an-asshole/The Rodney Dangerfield Theory of Apple gets re-validated every week. The WSJ and NYT have unprecedented readership access now through iOS alone. Dwarfs the ~2M total paper + digital circulation that the most-read papers have many times over, and there's a real opportunity to engage foreign markets for the taking somewhere. I doubt this is all because of some disagreement over the 30% revenue cut of subscriptions.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 19:33:11 GMT -8
Mossberg is more even handed, but his publishers flat suck and no doubt exert influence w/Walt's writing. Pogue is similarly playing puppet to his NYT editors.
There's got to be something more than the psychology of Mossberg and Pogue to hate on Apple. It's bewildering to the point I think there's a bigger story behind the bias.
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Post by sponge on Jun 9, 2013 19:54:44 GMT -8
The less respect Apple gets the bigger the opportunity to invest while cheap. Media and sell side analysts don't really understand Apples long term potential. But 61% of institutional investors do. They don't care what the papers say or what some analysts changes his price target to. They buy and hold for 20 years and make a great deal more then investing just in some mutual fund or big index.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2013 20:17:39 GMT -8
The less respect Apple gets the bigger the opportunity to invest while cheap. Media and sell side analysts don't really understand Apples long term potential. But 61% of institutional investors do. They don't care what the papers say or what some analysts changes his price target to. They buy and hold for 20 years and make a great deal more then investing just in some mutual fund or big index. 61% of institutional investors? That's not the same as saying 64% of Apple is owned by institutions. And I would fire any money manager who stated his intention to hold Apple for 20 years without recognition for the volatility of a tech company. My crystal ball for Apple is 12 months. Price targets beyond this time frame are extremely speculative that go beyond even a W.A.G.
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