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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 8:42:25 GMT -8
For the past 10 trading days new Calls have outnumbered new Puts by 14:1. If we go back another 9 trading (the most recent Thurman Reversal) then the ratio becomes 113:1.
On average during the reference 10 day period (Week over Week comparison), ~79,000 new Options are created. That average has been in decline since January expiry.
Distribution of new options does not seem to favor any particular expiry, except to say near term has more activity than further out. I think this should be expected due to AAPL's volatility.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 14, 2013 8:56:31 GMT -8
I strongly recommend the latest blog post by Horace Dediu. A great piece of analysis. Quote: "Today’s expectation is....that each current customer will buy the equivalent of 1.8 iPhones. And nothing more, ever." That metric really puts AAPL's current valuation in perspective. www.asymco.com/2013/06/14/whats-an-apple-user-worth/
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 9:02:01 GMT -8
The ATT store has the HTC One 32GB phone for FREE with a 2 year contract. Unbelievable that a smartphone so well regarded is being discounted so early. Sammy's S4 16GB is $199 by comparison but you can buy a Sammy Tablet for $200.
I MUCH prefer HTC's phone over Sammy's, but the software is a nonstarter. I will say that Apple could take a cue from allowing the app developers to design icons WITHOUT confining things to a rounded corner box. To my eyes, the icons look much better than Apple's (including and especially iOS7's), I'm sad to say. At least give the user to turn off the neon crap.
Oh, and by the way, owning AAPL feels about as good as a root canal without novocaine.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 14, 2013 9:07:01 GMT -8
Now slowly working our way back to 432. I think the buy back was designed to keep the stock from dropping further under 400 and building a base between 425-445. It is working. Apple understood eps growth would be challenged in 2013 given the margins. Wisely they waited for buy back after we dropped under 500. Now they can buy more while WS keeps of focusing on other stocks. I am telling you 2 years from now we will be flirting with reaching that $1000 price point. The buying will help, but ultimately it will be margins and profit growth that will get us there. Do us a favor and quit pulling stuff out of your ass. The lower we go, the more vocal you tend to be. It's a double whammy of frustration. And while you're at it, either listen to your own advice, or stop posting it. Between numerous Jan calls and shares on margin, I've yet to see you actually buy and hold.
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Post by sponge on Jun 14, 2013 9:27:22 GMT -8
I have always been a bull long term.
I have been buying and holding. Options are play money and not mine.
When we get to $800 I will recover all my margin losses and some.
Not worried just because we dropped $20 points. It's par for the course with aapl.
Great piece by Horace. TC and PO made a similar points during earnings call. Long term Apples biggest asset is not iPhone growth but iTunes customers who not only buy software but hardware over time.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 9:37:01 GMT -8
I have always been a bull long term. I have been buying and holding. Options are play money and not mine. When we get to $800 I will recover all my margin losses and some. Not worried just because we dropped $20 points. It's par for the course with aapl. Great piece by Horace. TC and PO made a similar points during earnings call. Long term Apples biggest asset is not iPhone growth but iTunes customers who not only buy software but hardware over time. So you need AAPL to essentially double to break even? Perhaps you should change your strategy?
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Post by sponge on Jun 14, 2013 9:49:51 GMT -8
I have always been a bull long term. I have been buying and holding. Options are play money and not mine. When we get to $800 I will recover all my margin losses and some. Not worried just because we dropped $20 points. It's par for the course with aapl. Great piece by Horace. TC and PO made a similar points during earnings call. Long term Apples biggest asset is not iPhone growth but iTunes customers who not only buy software but hardware over time. So you need AAPL to essentially double to break even? Perhaps you should change your strategy? No if we get to 800 I will make 900% from my original investment that started in 2005-2012 with my own money.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 14, 2013 9:53:25 GMT -8
I have always been a bull long term. I have been buying and holding. Options are play money and not mine. When we get to $800 I will recover all my margin losses and some. Not worried just because we dropped $20 points. It's par for the course with aapl. Great piece by Horace. TC and PO made a similar points during earnings call. Long term Apples biggest asset is not iPhone growth but iTunes customers who not only buy software but hardware over time. Options are play money and not yours? Like Margin? Whose money is it exactly?
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Post by terps530 on Jun 14, 2013 9:57:24 GMT -8
sponge why would you reference a pattern from after WWDC the last two years, when every other 'pattern' this year has gone to crap? I am telling you 2 years from now we will be flirting with reaching that $1000 price point. The buying will help, but ultimately it will be margins and profit growth that will get us there. no one here cares what you are telling us. it changes every hour so it doesn't mean anything. Do you not get that yet? I'd rather listen to a goldfish.
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Post by macwire on Jun 14, 2013 9:59:40 GMT -8
Just lol. At everything here. Aapl. Sponge.
Need right shoulder to hold. 420.
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Post by mstrmac on Jun 14, 2013 10:10:29 GMT -8
If you were a trader or had whimpering long mentality and saw the opening movie to start the keynote at WWDC you would see or be reminded that Apple, as a company, does not see the stock price as its #1#2 #3 or #4 motivational objective. Hence the low volume selloff and market trailing path. Today or yesterday or tomorrow. Good riddance.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 10:21:43 GMT -8
Bought June $425/$430 BCS this morning with proceeds from selling my June $450/$455 BCSs yesterday. AAPL was at $428.80. Break Even $427.80.
A Close above $430 next Friday will recover my losses.
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Post by sponge on Jun 14, 2013 10:33:27 GMT -8
Lets talk about aapl not me. We will recover over 432 by end of the day. That's my view based how the stock is acting this morning. Don't get mad at my opinion. It is only an opinion.
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Post by sponge on Jun 14, 2013 10:38:09 GMT -8
It should be noted that two weeks ago closing over 449 looked like would take us to 465 either last week or this. Obviously WS had other plans. No we are all suffering.
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Post by terps530 on Jun 14, 2013 11:06:42 GMT -8
Bought June $425/$430 BCS this morning with proceeds from selling my June $450/$455 BCSs yesterday. AAPL was at $428.80. Break Even $427.80. A Close above $430 next Friday will recover my losses. smart play gregg. I like this spread a lot better than that earlier one based on the current OIs. edit: big macro events next week may affect this in either direction. I heard Fed meeting and the whole 'will tapering begin or not' is to be announced.
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Post by zzmac on Jun 14, 2013 11:13:27 GMT -8
"From what I can see Apple's gonna hit $1000 in two years!" sponge why would you reference a pattern from after WWDC the last two years, when every other 'pattern' this year has gone to crap? I am telling you 2 years from now we will be flirting with reaching that $1000 price point. The buying will help, but ultimately it will be margins and profit growth that will get us there. no one here cares what you are telling us. it changes every hour so it doesn't mean anything. Do you not get that yet? I'd rather listen to a goldfish.
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Post by sponge on Jun 14, 2013 11:29:42 GMT -8
"From what I can see Apple's gonna hit $1000 in two years!" sponge why would you reference a pattern from after WWDC the last two years, when every other 'pattern' this year has gone to crap? no one here cares what you are telling us. it changes every hour so it doesn't mean anything. Do you not get that yet? I'd rather listen to a goldfish. thats funny. ;D Sponge Bob is on every morning at our house. I love his character. i will book mark this thread to bring it back in two years. The problem is that we will have a new batch of posters and most of you will run out of money by then. Many here were not around 3 years ago when I told the world to buy at $200, because we would more then double in three years. We ended up growing much more then I expected. Patience my young jedi knights.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 14, 2013 12:03:25 GMT -8
Exact close at 430. Must be a coincidence...amazing how that works.
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Post by sponge on Jun 14, 2013 12:10:23 GMT -8
Exact close at 430. Must be a coincidence...amazing how that works. I was off by $2. I think the overall market killed us. The last time we had such low volume for a regular day was April 12 and before that it was August 29. No one really cares about this stock right now. It is vacation time. I will be in Miami and the West keys in three week. . WS has left before me.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 12:12:50 GMT -8
Exact close at 430. Must be a coincidence...amazing how that works. Thanks weekly options players! The weeklies are killing this stock as a place to "invest" (what a laughable term).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 14, 2013 13:03:55 GMT -8
AAPL is a tricky trade.
As far as investment, jury's still out. Apple officially became a slower-growing company this year. We'll probably need another to get better data points on AAPL's attractiveness as a "buy it and forget it" stock.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2013 13:11:50 GMT -8
AAPL is a tricky trade. As far as investment, jury's still out. Apple officially became a slower-growing company this year. We'll probably need another to get better data points on AAPL's attractiveness as a "buy it and forget it" stock. Yes, the growth has slowed. But the tough compare with last year's unprecedented margins and growth shouldn't doom a company that remains in the driver's seat for profitability, mindshare, brand value, customer loyalty and future prospects. What has GOOG done to earn its valuation? Nexus Q? Pixel? Glass? Android is now owned by Sammy, which is making noises about dumping it in favor of Tizen. The list goes on. There's no point attempting to explain AAPL's performance in the face of GOOG insanity.
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Post by nagrani on Jun 14, 2013 13:13:41 GMT -8
Sponge, What are your thoughts on pricing next week? I just refinanced my house and want to follow your investment advice? Thanks in advance.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jun 14, 2013 13:56:17 GMT -8
Folks, judicious use of the ignore function can greatly increase one's enjoyment of the forum. Best part is, it's not irrevocable, so it never hurts to try it out for while.
Just sayin'...
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Post by sponge on Jun 14, 2013 13:56:20 GMT -8
Sponge, What are your thoughts on pricing next week? I just refinanced my house and want to follow your investment advice? Thanks in advance. LOL Don't know where we will be next week or next month. Just looking for 525 by Sept when the 5S comes out. I took $20k out of my house in 2005 and invested in aapl. I would not do that today because my house will be paid off in 6 years. I think growth will be modest the next two years. I am bullish 2016 and beyond.
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