Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2013 11:53:44 GMT -8
Doesn't look very accurate to me. Also, look at the ranges. What good is a 20-50 point range? You don't make any money with that knowledge, so who cares? Oh, come on. The range is overstated for confidence levels. I can tell where AAPL lands on Friday within $10 every week on Monday, excluding catalyst type events. TA can't come even close.
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Post by nagrani on Jun 17, 2013 12:17:12 GMT -8
What happened at around 2:40p? Both TSLA and AAPL dropped at exactly the same time. the financial Times reported that the Fed will announce tapering of QE during its meeting this week. How accurate, or how they even know is anyone's guess. In other news, AAPL looks to have a golden SMA20/SMA100 cross on the daily chart today.... You sure that's not continuation of the golden shower we have been getting for the last few months?
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Jun 17, 2013 12:17:49 GMT -8
Apple Headlines we'd like to be (or should be) seeing. I'll send them over to the Onion right away...
Non Technical Journalists Asigned To Cover Apple's New Operating System At The WWDC
Analyst Commenting On Apple's Fundamentals Reveals He Doesn't Know What The Word Fundamental Really Means
Are Hedge Funds Running Out Of Ways To Manipulate AAPL's Stock Price?
No Shortage Of Half Truths Regarding The Myth of Apple's Competition
More Apple Bashinig From Business Insider
Goldman Sachs Finally Admits: "Yes, We're Gaming AAPL"
Google Search Reveals: Analyst That Bashed AAPL Causing Price Drop Doesn't Exist
Hoax News Story Regarding Samsung's Billion Dollar Payment To Apple In Nickels Found To Be A Hoax
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Post by appledoc on Jun 17, 2013 12:43:52 GMT -8
Doesn't look very accurate to me. Also, look at the ranges. What good is a 20-50 point range? You don't make any money with that knowledge, so who cares? Oh, come on. The range is overstated for confidence levels. I can tell where AAPL lands on Friday within $10 every week on Monday, excluding catalyst type events. TA can't come even close. Again, what good is that? Creating bull call spreads 10 points below the low end of the range doesn't net you anything.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2013 13:03:04 GMT -8
Travis has his strategy published on his site. No need to re-type it here. Suffice it to say, the institutions move the stock price through buying and selling shares to close the stock price on strikes that allow them to keep their option premiums.
The weekly players have been taken to the woodshed so many times I'm surprised they can afford an internet connection...
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Post by rickag on Jun 17, 2013 13:34:37 GMT -8
Interesting close, exactly 432, what this number may mean for those like me with tinfoil bonnets. It may not be the golden ratio used in EW, but what might this mean. 432 A Sacred Number I take this to mean AAPL will gain 10 - 13 % by Friday. Certainly, this must mean AAPL is about to take off at the speed of light to new All Time HIGHS, right.... right. My take on this is the solar cycle is one calendar year so by June 17th we should be @ $864. Woohoo. ___________________________ 432 Music Harmony & Rhythm No harmonic vibe related to AAPL, I just like Hendrix ___________________________ Empower Your Senses... Expand Your ConsciousnessThe preceding message has been brought to you by someone who succumbed to complete insanity of the stock market. Now where the hell is my drool cup.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2013 13:49:35 GMT -8
Call/Put Open Interest Ratio reversed today from a Bullish bias to a Bearish bias. To qualify as a "Thurman Reversal" we need 3 more days like today. If that happens you can reasonably expect a selloff the following week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2013 13:54:42 GMT -8
Is anyone else concerned with reports of Samsung Galaxy S4 sales projections going down...while from the news initially might be good, the talk out there now is the higher end is becoming "good enough" for most users and people aren't seeing the need to go to the latest and greatest Smartphone because the cheaper phones still do 90% of the job, sort of like the iPhone 4S compared to the 5. The worry out right now is people will not upgrade every 2 years and instead just stick with what they have. Maybe there are a lot of Android users who have decided not to buy the S4 but wait and switch to the iPhone 5s or 6 instead. Looking at the switch ratios (Android to iOS) I'd say Samsung has gone as far as plastic, OS copying and a 5" screen can take them.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2013 13:59:16 GMT -8
In other news, AAPL looks to have a golden SMA20/SMA100 cross on the daily chart today.... Yes it does. The only negative is that the cross occurred because the 100 day is falling...rapidly. On the bright side the 100 should begin an upward slope in the next 2 - 3 weeks.
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Post by sponge on Jun 17, 2013 14:10:43 GMT -8
Maybe there are a lot of Android users who have decided not to buy the S4 but wait and switch to the iPhone 5s or 6 instead. Looking at the switch ratios (Android to iOS) I'd say Samsung has gone as far as plastic, OS copying and a 5" screen can take them. I agree. They themselves warned about this back in Jan. They know they are in trouble. I want to see their fake numbers in 12 months.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 17, 2013 15:36:00 GMT -8
The preceding message has been brought to you by someone who succumbed to complete insanity of the stock market. Now where the hell is my drool cup. LOL!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 17, 2013 15:48:43 GMT -8
Interesting orders today: 12:57 PM: 10,189 JUL'13 470 CALLS @2.26 (bid 2.25; ask 2.26) 1:00 PM: 10,178 JUL'13 470 CALLS @2.26 (bid 2.25; ask 2.31) The OI this morning was 9557. Let's see where it is tomorrow. Those calls closed at 2.00. EDIT: More on this here... Big Option Purchase
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Post by rickag on Jun 17, 2013 16:42:11 GMT -8
Interesting orders today: 12:27 PM: 10,189 JUL'13 470 CALLS @2.26 (bid 2.25; ask 2.26) 1:00 PM: 10,178 JUL'13 470 CALLS @2.26 (bid 2.25; ask 2.31) The OI this morning was 9557. Let's see where it is tomorrow. Those calls closed at 2.00. EDIT: More on this here... Big Option PurchaseAs the article says it may be a hedge, my bet is that is exactly what it was. Some one is hedging a very large short position. Sad part is that creates a large call wall. Dear Mr. Cook Please get deals done with China Mobile and NTT Docomo to break through this call wall. Your assistance would be greatly appreciated. Your's truly Battered stock holder
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 17, 2013 17:01:06 GMT -8
A trading buddy from Avi's group has much better data that I do: Well now, it all makes sense. The first order was a cancellation. And the second order was closer to the BID. Selling near the HOD makes perfect sense. Somehow, I do expect big money to have at least half-decent timing. So okay, someone's up approximately $260K. And 470+ isn't likely to happen...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2013 17:49:26 GMT -8
A trading buddy from Avi's group has much better data that I do: Well now, it all makes sense. The first order was a cancellation. And the second order was closer to the BID. Selling near the HOD makes perfect sense. Somehow, I do expect big money to have at least half-decent timing. So okay, someone's up approximately $260K. And 470+ isn't likely to happen... Not sure it makes sense to me. Yet, anyway. Typically, a large call buy at a higher strike is bullish, as someone is pretty confident of things. A call wall that prevents AAPL from rising is built up over time. I can't tell if this purchase is a hedge or a straight purchase. Is there reporting to glean that information from?
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 17, 2013 18:26:07 GMT -8
Some men you just can't reach. I'll take pain over hope 52 weeks a year..
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 17, 2013 18:29:09 GMT -8
Doesn't look very accurate to me. Also, look at the ranges. What good is a 20-50 point range? You don't make any money with that knowledge, so who cares? Bullshit. You sell outside of the range, and have 100% annual returns. Fighting pain and hoping is where you don't make any money. How are those long calls working out?!?!?!?!?
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Post by Lstream on Jun 17, 2013 18:55:24 GMT -8
I'll take pain over hope 52 weeks a year.. About 15 more weeks of this price action, and your wish will come true
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 17, 2013 19:24:07 GMT -8
Typically, a large call buy at a higher strike is bullish, as someone is pretty confident of things. A call wall that prevents AAPL from rising is built up over time. I can't tell if this purchase is a hedge or a straight purchase. Is there reporting to glean that information from? My thought is: big money typically sells options. If bullish, they sell puts. Buying calls to hedge a short (stock) position also makes sense. Selling those calls, however, makes the most sense. Especially given the transaction happened near the HOD and the position (for the seller) was up $260K by the close.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 17, 2013 19:32:23 GMT -8
Ziggy, I had the same data that you have, and the numbers didn't add up. Then my friend provided the data from his brokerage -- with the cancellation, the numbers add up.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2013 19:35:43 GMT -8
My thought is: big money typically sells options. If bullish, they sell puts. Buying calls to hedge a short (stock) position also makes sense. Selling those calls, however, makes the most sense. Especially given the transaction happened near the HOD and the position (for the seller) was up $260K by the close. Big money sells calls but they need a buyer first. The only way they're going to get that many calls sold today is to drop the price dramatically. That's very inefficient. If bullish, they'd more likely buy calls or sell puts. I'm leaning that the purchase of the 470s is bullish.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2013 19:40:40 GMT -8
Doesn't look very accurate to me. Also, look at the ranges. What good is a 20-50 point range? You don't make any money with that knowledge, so who cares? Bullshit. You sell outside of the range, and have 100% annual returns. Fighting pain and hoping is where you don't make any money. How are those long calls working out?!?!?!?!? Thanks for the short version. ;D Yeah, until we break out of this pain range, holding calls is a losing proposition. Next week will be interesting, as these June monthlies were built with higher expectations earlier in the year. WWDC is history and few catalysts are on the near-term horizon. Is there really going to be the same OI interest on the weeklies? I doubt it.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 17, 2013 19:52:32 GMT -8
Doesn't look very accurate to me. Also, look at the ranges. What good is a 20-50 point range? You don't make any money with that knowledge, so who cares? Bullshit. You sell outside of the range, and have 100% annual returns. Fighting pain and hoping is where you don't make any money. How are those long calls working out?!?!?!?!? It didn't take long for the real JD to show up! So where are you selling your calls at this week then? The 455 strike to make $13/contract before trade costs? Yeah, that's really going to make you some money. Then that bull week comes in and wipes you out completely. So why don't you start posting up your trades like I do so we can all make money off your genius strategy? Let's have a refresher to the last time we discussed this before you cowered away... aaplfinance.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=intradayupdates&action=display&thread=338&page=8For the record, I've made one call and three call spread purchases since the week before January earnings. The first three trades I made a little money on, the third I'm holding (Jan 14 550/560).
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platon
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"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on Jun 17, 2013 20:51:47 GMT -8
It didn't work last week, and it doesn't appear that its going to work this week. I'm curious just how often "Max Pain" does work. It doesn't work. Sorry to hear that. I have been selling weekly covered calls based on the pain game and I have had considerable success over the past 14 months. I have built a core holding from the profits. I admit that I do much better when pain holds but for me it works better than waiting for squiggly lines to merge/part/cross/touch or hover. This is probably because I don't have a clue as to what all that means. I guess the old Zamenhof saying "Al ĉiu sia propra" is true again. One would hope that we can all agree to that. Esperanto, the 64th Google language, the hope of the hopeful and while Rickag makes a strong case for 432 try this number for real excitement. WIKI "A chessboard has 64 squares Sixty-four is: In some computer programming languages, the size in bits of certain data types In chess or draughts, the total number of black (dark) and white (light) squares on the game board The total number of gems in a standard Bejeweled game board 64 is the name of the premier Russian chess magazine The code for international direct dial calls to New Zealand The designation of US Interstate 64, a freeway from Missouri to Virginia The designation of U.S. Route 64, a highway from Arizona to North Carolina The subject of the Beatles song "When I'm Sixty-Four" The registry of the U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier USS Constellation (CV-64) The number of Braille characters in the old 6-dot system In 8-bit home computers, a common shorthand for the Commodore 64 In video games, the Nintendo 64 video game console and (historically) the Commodore 64. Since 1996, the number 64 has been an abbreviation or slang for Nintendo 64 (though N64 is more common) along with the games Super Mario 64, Mario Kart 64 and more The maximum number of strokes in any Chinese character Number of hexagrams in the I Ching Number of sexual positions in the Kama Sutra Number of demons in the Dictionnaire Infernal Slang term referring to a 1964 Chevrolet Impala, often configured as a lowrider, a popular subject among early-90's gangsta rap The number of classical arts listed in many Indian scriptures. They include: singing, dancing, painting, poetry, playing cards, making arguments, making flower garlands, etc. The number of the French department Pyrénées-Atlantiques The number of crayons in the popular Crayola 64 pack Base 64 is used for example with Base64 encoding. Maximum stack size in the popular game Minecraft. 64 (dog) is a character in the Donald Duck comics universe. Number of codons in the RNA codon table under genetic code. Number of golden disks in the myth of the Tower of Hanoi. A number referring to Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 (Chinese: 六四事件; literally "Six Four Incident") in Chinese" OK back to squiggles.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 17, 2013 21:17:50 GMT -8
Just looking at call/put OI, anyone getting this 420-430 monthly OpEx pain range feeling that I'm getting?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 17, 2013 21:18:28 GMT -8
"Number of sexual positions in the Kama Sutra" Hmmm. I am only personally familiar with 58 of these... Now, 58... There is a number.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 17, 2013 21:19:25 GMT -8
Not helping, Red. And also, TMI. Way, way TMI.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 17, 2013 21:20:37 GMT -8
Just looking at call/put OI, anyone getting this 420-430 monthly OpEx pain range feeling that I'm getting? The 420 puts will hold, so yeah...but I'm hoping we see a 435 -440 week, but nothing to stop it drifting lower. Since we now expect lower, watch it move higher....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 17, 2013 21:22:17 GMT -8
435-440? Not as much pain for put sellers, though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2013 21:24:50 GMT -8
Just looking at call/put OI, anyone getting this 420-430 monthly OpEx pain range feeling that I'm getting? $435. Don't see where you're getting 420-430. We have a good range at $430 - $440 for June monthlies.
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