Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 20, 2013 1:15:48 GMT -8
Immediate downside price band to watch, IMHO: low 410s-420. (61.8% Fib retrace of most recent uptrend move, that 419 reference level)
Will the broader markets finally resolve in SOME direction soon? Hmm...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 1:25:22 GMT -8
I had the honor of making the last post for Wednesday. Reposting because it might be important.
It looks just as bad an hour and a half later. Thursday could be rocky.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 20, 2013 2:08:28 GMT -8
I had the honor of making the last post for Wednesday. Reposting because it might be important. It looks just as bad an hour and a half later. Thursday could be rocky. Yes, it's fairly ugly this morning on this side of the pond. The Footsie is currently down 2.4%, as are many other European indices
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 20, 2013 2:15:05 GMT -8
419.93 in premarket...
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 20, 2013 2:30:09 GMT -8
I guess it makes sense that when the market sky rockets AAPL goes down...and when the market plummets, AAPL goes down even further. Yeah...perfect sense.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 20, 2013 2:32:27 GMT -8
Poor sentiment is worse than any EO OpEx plan.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 20, 2013 2:34:08 GMT -8
Third time's the charm? SPY close to 50-day. Again again.
I swear, the markets are getting harder and harder to trade for non-intraday types. (And I'm not an intraday trader.)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 2:55:20 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 20, 2013 2:58:29 GMT -8
Some would say if iPhone 5S doesn't sport a Bigger Screen(tm), something like biometric authentication (The Magic Home Button Fingerprint Scanner(tm)) would be necessary to "sidestep" that concern.
One-touch authentication systemwide could be ALL KINDS of important. Ease of security, of commerce. A bona-fide mainstream game changer.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 20, 2013 3:16:10 GMT -8
Poor sentiment is worse than any EO OpEx plan. No. Everything is decided by max pain. Which I still see the highest put wall at 420, so that should hold, right? I can't wait to see this board if 419/420 breaks today. I'll be dumping the last of my commons if we see below 400, so let's see what happens!!!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 3:17:51 GMT -8
Poor sentiment is worse than any EO OpEx plan. No. Everything is decided by max pain. Which I still see the highest put wall at 420, so that should hold, right? I can't wait to see this board if 419/420 breaks today. I'll be dumping the last of my commons if we see below 400, so let's see what happens!!! Buy high / sell low? Or selling low to avoid selling lower?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 20, 2013 3:30:07 GMT -8
Don't forget the option of throwaway hedges, bear spreads.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 20, 2013 3:33:38 GMT -8
JD has often opined: sentiment trumps pain.
I think it's analogous to what (good) chartists say about price: price is the #1 technical indicator and trumps all others.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 20, 2013 3:43:12 GMT -8
No. Everything is decided by max pain. Which I still see the highest put wall at 420, so that should hold, right? I can't wait to see this board if 419/420 breaks today. I'll be dumping the last of my commons if we see below 400, so let's see what happens!!! Buy high / sell low? Or selling low to avoid selling lower? The latter. Really, I just don't want to have my money potentially sitting in dead water for the next six months.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 20, 2013 3:44:44 GMT -8
Don't forget the option of throwaway hedges, bear spreads. No time for that anymore. Do have time to short shares though. And I'll be doing that if the opportunity presents below 400.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 20, 2013 3:46:20 GMT -8
I loved this post from yesterday (and, of course, I concur): No one has to buy the stock right now. There are stocks hot money feels it has to buy or miss out. Tesla, Netflix....even, gulp, Amazon. We know June quarter earnings are going to be within a pretty set range and the range is not exciting. The share buyback scheme will produce improvement, but not for some quarters yet on a material basis. We know IOS 7is neat but it won't produce revenues until it is paired with new hardware, which means September. An investor can sell Apple at 428 and have a fair expectation of being able to buy the shares back before the next dividend ex-date at 425-440. In the meantime the proceeds from that sale could go to Tesla (just as an example...) that might go from 103 to 125. Apple has told us everything that is going to happen over the next five weeks.....and maybe if earnings pan out as planned, the next ten weeks. Money is fungible and seeks heat....I love Apple but it is a bit "cool" right now.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 20, 2013 3:50:05 GMT -8
I'm going to repeat this again, but I cannot believe that it's been October since we had a meaningful product announcement.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 20, 2013 3:54:39 GMT -8
I'm going to repeat this again, but I cannot believe that it's been October since we had a meaningful product announcement. And who knows if we will even get a "meaningful" one in 2013. Sure we will get an iPhone upgrade but I'm not certain how meaningful it will really be.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 20, 2013 3:59:39 GMT -8
I'm going to repeat this again, but I cannot believe that it's been October since we had a meaningful product announcement. And who knows if we will even get a "meaningful" one in 2013. Sure we will get an iPhone upgrade but I'm not certain how meaningful it will really be. TC promised a big fall. It's time to put up or shut up.
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Post by qualitywte on Jun 20, 2013 4:41:20 GMT -8
The sky is not falling, the world is not coming to an end! You guys get so nervous and irritable when the price drops, have a little faith in TC & Co.
Apple's lawyers are making DOJ look silly in the ebook case.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 4:43:56 GMT -8
JD has often opined: sentiment trumps pain. I think it's analogous to what (good) chartists say about price: price is the #1 technical indicator and trumps all others. This is the equivalent of saying "price is truth," which means nothing. It confers nothing of value to guide one's behavior in the context of buying or selling.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 4:57:08 GMT -8
No. Everything is decided by max pain. Which I still see the highest put wall at 420, so that should hold, right? No one, and I mean no one, has said that. If you were paying attention, you would have learned that Bernanke's words impacted sentiment, which combined with Apple catalysts, trump "max pain." I posted the track record of watching OI but when minds are closed, the eyes cannot see. Clearly, you're throwing the baby out with the bath water.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 20, 2013 5:01:24 GMT -8
Hey guys, granted I'm not as much an old timer as many on this board, but I would like to urge the group to keep things civil and friendly. Although the performance of AAPL has us all hurting, there is no point in attacking each other's opinions or methods. The market may hate AAPL, but we can still commiserate and support each other through it.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 20, 2013 5:06:26 GMT -8
No. Everything is decided by max pain. Which I still see the highest put wall at 420, so that should hold, right? No one, and I mean no one, has said that. If you were paying attention, you would have learned that Bernanke's words impacted sentiment, which combined with Apple catalysts, trump "max pain." I posted the track record of watching OI but when minds are closed, the eyes cannot see. Clearly, you're throwing the baby out with the bath water. I saw the track record. I'm still not impressed. If events disrupt max pain, what good is it really when you can't track real-time max pain? Technicals apply down to the minute. They can be used in light of events, which actually can help to direct the picture.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 20, 2013 5:14:33 GMT -8
Hey guys, granted I'm not as much an old timer as many on this board, but I would like to urge the group to keep things civil and friendly. Although the performance of AAPL has us all hurting, there is no point in attacking each other's opinions or methods. The market may hate AAPL, but we can still commiserate and support each other through it. I'll shut up when somebody gets transparent on how max pain can be a profitable strategy. I am very open about the trades I make and what I see in the TA that convinces me to pull the trigger. All I'm asking is that the max pain guys do the same. Instead I get something like, "On Monday I can predict within $10 where we will land on Friday every week". Except when there's some "event" or max pain moves. There's always something to blame for max pain not working.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 5:19:36 GMT -8
My point yesterday re: predicted rates of EPS growth was made to challenge the stock market's status as an "efficient pricing machine" and its perceived regimen of taking the long view of companies. It fails miserably at this.
Apple had an incredible calendar 2012 and yet that is now used to discount its future with YOY comparisons. Although I recognize the limits of comparing GOOG with AAPL,the predicted future growth rates are at least comparable to suggest that today's respective P/E ratios are out of step.
But as we know, sentiment can rule the short term, but I didn't think it would last 9 months. As far as Apple not releasing new products over this time period, the only thing missing were new iPads in FQ1. That's not a primary reason for Apple's price behavior.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 20, 2013 5:22:22 GMT -8
Hey guys, granted I'm not as much an old timer as many on this board, but I would like to urge the group to keep things civil and friendly. Although the performance of AAPL has us all hurting, there is no point in attacking each other's opinions or methods. The market may hate AAPL, but we can still commiserate and support each other through it. I'll shut up when somebody gets transparent on how max pain can be a profitable strategy. I am very open about the trades I make and what I see in the TA that convinces me to pull the trigger. All I'm asking is that the max pain guys do the same. Instead I get something like, "On Monday I can predict within $10 where we will land on Friday every week". Except when there's some "event" or max pain moves. There's always something to blame for max pain not working. How about taking this squabble off-line with PM's?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 5:26:07 GMT -8
Hey guys, granted I'm not as much an old timer as many on this board, but I would like to urge the group to keep things civil and friendly. Although the performance of AAPL has us all hurting, there is no point in attacking each other's opinions or methods. The market may hate AAPL, but we can still commiserate and support each other through it. I'll shut up when somebody gets transparent on how max pain can be a profitable strategy. I am very open about the trades I make and what I see in the TA that convinces me to pull the trigger. All I'm asking is that the max pain guys do the same. Instead I get something like, "On Monday I can predict within $10 where we will land on Friday every week". Except when there's some "event" or max pain moves. There's always something to blame for max pain not working. You're not listening! Get the wax out your ears. Generally speaking means exactly that. On any given week AAPL, barring catalysts, it will trade in accordance with OI. One trades on options (writing calls) where AAPL will not close on Friday. The strategy is plain enough for everyone else, so I can't help you.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 20, 2013 5:29:03 GMT -8
And pain said this week to sell 450 calls and 420 puts. Those 420 puts are now at major downside risk. Do you buy back here for a big loss, or risk taking an even bigger loss by riding it out until Friday?
That's a question I would actually like an answer to.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 5:34:57 GMT -8
And pain said this week to sell 450 calls and 420 puts. Those 420 puts are now at major downside risk. Do you buy back here for a big loss, or risk taking an even bigger loss by riding it out until Friday? That's a question I would actually like an answer to. I give up. You're either thick or just stubborn. And I could care less which one of the two you are.
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