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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 21, 2013 2:14:10 GMT -8
Well ... June expiration ... monthly PIN perhaps ... markets gone haywire ... volatile overseas markets in Asia, although bounced off lows and stabilized somewhat (Nikkei led the rally back from the dead) ... Europe trying to claw back from yesterday's losses...looking green right now. Let's see if US markets provide us with a bit of bounce after yesterday's dramatic sell-off.
Our fruit company in a pretty shade of green in PM ... and although it's anyone's guess if it will hold, hope springs eternal.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 21, 2013 3:33:36 GMT -8
Order in to sell the rest of my commons at the open. Great way to end the week
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 21, 2013 3:52:17 GMT -8
May I respectfully ask why? Dollar-cost averaging in our buy-and-hold investment account. Long time horizon. I sold everything but AAPL back when SPX was in the 1500s as I thought we'd swoon well before now, and I shorted gold on the first oversold bounce after it broke down; so sitting on a pile of cash. With everything but AAPL up at ATHs, there's nothing else I want to buy until a significant market pullback. I'll buy AAPL every 10 points we drop. And I'll likely look to short other stuff on oversold bounces. In our trading accounts, I have not touched any bullish AAPL options since JAN'13 earnings. I don't think this stock is going anywhere (but down) anytime soon. I think we're rangebound, at best.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 21, 2013 4:10:08 GMT -8
I still think the 10k of July 470 calls purchased recently is a bullish bet... IMHO, not a chance. That was an impeccably timed short.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jun 21, 2013 5:25:35 GMT -8
If there was ever a week I'd like to see max pain kick in, its this week.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2013 6:04:25 GMT -8
I still think the 10k of July 470 calls purchased recently is a bullish bet... IMHO, not a chance. That was an impeccably timed short. How did the call writer find the buyer for 10k contracts? It's not like there's a supply problem for July 470s.
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Post by sponge on Jun 21, 2013 6:26:59 GMT -8
We have almost enough shares in the first hour what took us all day on Tuesday to achieve. You can tell lots of margin calls were triggered and with OE today, many ar scrambling. The next week I still think we will recover and see 440 by Friday.
The reason I think the iPhone 5S will break records is for the following reasons. They will be able to build more then ever for the launch and introduce in more countries. I think we will have the CM deal since they will have the right chip. There is still growth in the smartphone market and defections will be huge from Android devices. And finally there are millions with the 4 and 4S that are ready to upgrade.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 21, 2013 6:33:30 GMT -8
Oversold bounces getting sold hard is BAD news.
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Post by sponge on Jun 21, 2013 6:39:14 GMT -8
Oversold bounces getting sold hard is BAD news. Not really. Check out April 19. That day we dropped to 385 on very high volume of 23 million shares. No surprise that Friday happen to be OE as well. Monday will be a new beginning.
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Post by lance on Jun 21, 2013 6:44:14 GMT -8
This stock needs a catalyst and I think the catalyst will come in form of the July report. Because no question the summer quarter will be worst in years. Everyone knows it. And finally investors will be able to see a bottoming in lowering profit trend. That negative guidance for summer ironically I think will be the start to put an end to the worst case scenario for the stock.
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Post by sponge on Jun 21, 2013 6:48:13 GMT -8
This stock needs a catalyst and I think the catalyst will come in form of the July report. Because no question the summer quarter will be worst in years. Everyone knows it. And finally investors will be able to see a bottoming in lowering profit trend. That negative guidance for summer ironically I think will be the start to put an end to the worst case scenario for the stock. I am not so sure. The only catalyst will be new products. That means Sept at the earliest. We could see 485 before then, but I think we will stay in the 420-460 range for a few more months.
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Post by applemuncher on Jun 21, 2013 6:55:43 GMT -8
IMHO, not a chance. That was an impeccably timed short. How did the call writer find the buyer for 10k contracts? It's not like there's a supply problem for July 470s. Hi Mercel, That's what Market Makers do. They would buy the 10k contracts and immediately hedge the position.
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Post by macwire on Jun 21, 2013 7:07:02 GMT -8
Sorry for anyone's this POS. just an awful trading stock if you're long. Go double bottom at 385 and flush everyone out once and for all.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 21, 2013 7:09:18 GMT -8
Bought some more common stock for the long term.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jun 21, 2013 7:14:41 GMT -8
I hope Apple is buying back hard .... from the volume I would guess they are not : (
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Post by sponge on Jun 21, 2013 7:14:43 GMT -8
Bought some more common stock for the long term. Good move
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Post by sponge on Jun 21, 2013 7:18:44 GMT -8
I hope Apple is buying back hard .... from the volume I would guess they are not : ( I think WS has figured out when they buy, and then dump in the weeks following. Apple seems to be buying at the end of the month. Look at the last week of March, April, and May. So next week I expect a strong move upwards.
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Post by po1nt on Jun 21, 2013 7:23:17 GMT -8
SPY is getting REAL close to 100-DAY... Should bounce here....
edit: just kissed it, lets see what she does.
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Post by sponge on Jun 21, 2013 8:26:15 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jun 21, 2013 8:34:00 GMT -8
If there is no fingerprint authentication or something equally impactful, the 5S will be a disappointment (in perception if not sales). It will simply be another catalyst for the stock to drop further (remember when we started dropping from $700? Right after the iPhone 5). The only catalyst for share appreciation is a new product line or a return to real growth. Dividend and buyback will also help over time. I think AAPL is extremely cheap right now but I think it wi remain that way for some time yet.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jun 21, 2013 8:38:01 GMT -8
Higher volume than we've seen in quite a few days. I'm taking note of that if nothing else.
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Post by sponge on Jun 21, 2013 8:41:09 GMT -8
No finger print needed this year. Plus they are not ready.
TC said we are in the infant stages for mobile payments.
The cheaper iPhone and the redesigned iPad 9.7 will be enough get us to 15% eps growth in 1st quarter.
Apple will hint that in Oct with guidance.
I think the 5S and iPad Mini 2 will continue to keep margins low, so despite big sales, we will be limited in eps growth.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 21, 2013 8:47:27 GMT -8
Listening to a well-known iOS developer on a recent podcast (and my own much less-knowledgeable reading of the iOS 7 development documentation), it would seem that enhancements to the operating system make it much easier for developers to design for future iOS devices of varying screen size.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 21, 2013 9:00:26 GMT -8
Supposed renderings of the "cheaper" iPhone look quite good. If this can be had for $0 on contract or ~$300 unsubsidized, it will decimate the competition. Might even pick one myself, depending on the specs.
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Post by rickag on Jun 21, 2013 9:00:37 GMT -8
I hope Apple is buying back hard .... from the volume I would guess they are not : ( They are limited to 25% of the daily volume.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 21, 2013 9:02:08 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jun 21, 2013 9:06:08 GMT -8
I don't think 8 gigs will even run the current version of IOS
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 21, 2013 9:11:45 GMT -8
If there was ever a week I'd like to see max pain kick in, its this week. The levers are being pulled, they are trying for 415... 16K puts at 420 would be expensive...but this week is a bloodbath. Kind of like trying to clean your bathroom while someone is being stabbed to death in it. ***Edited to reflect that I meant puts, not calls, and I was looking at day-old numbers, so I corrected that. All my positions are closed up, so I am not really looking that closely, watering my plants ATM...
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Post by appledoc on Jun 21, 2013 9:14:04 GMT -8
I hope Apple is buying back hard .... from the volume I would guess they are not : ( They are limited to 25% of the daily volume. They'll never even come close to approaching that limit. They wouldn't even buy a million shares in any given day. That's $400M and almost 1% of the buyback in one day. The buyback isn't meant to provide support on a daily basis. It's benefit is meant to be felt over a longer period of time.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 21, 2013 9:21:23 GMT -8
They are limited to 25% of the daily volume. They'll never even come close to approaching that limit. They wouldn't even buy a million shares in any given day. That's $400M and almost 1% of the buyback in one day. The buyback isn't meant to provide support on a daily basis. It's benefit is meant to be felt over a longer period of time. True...but if they bought back more around $400 it would both provide support and have a greater long term effect by buying back more shares for the same money (hopefully...assuming $400 is a relative low over the next few months/years)
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