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Post by qualitywte on Jun 22, 2013 6:57:31 GMT -8
I don't think so. I view it as something the media fudsters trumped up just to slam the company when it doesn't happen. I do expect something that is suited for CM this year or early next year. Apple's doing fine with their iPhone strategy. I expect a 5S with same form factor was the 5 and some nice spec and features that will set it apart from eveything before it. And as with previous releases, it will sell very well. I disagree. There's way too much noise, including comments by Pegatron acknowledging it. I'm just as cynical as you regarding the media where Apple is concerned, but they're not wrong about iPhone Jr. becoming a reality. I could see it specifically for China and developing countries where price is a bigger factor. I don't see price as a factor in the US, so the dilemma is how to put out a cheaper version aimed at China and maintain premium pricing in the US. Could be tricky but Apple can do amazing things.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 7:11:12 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 22, 2013 8:08:21 GMT -8
Could just be Apple allowing retailers to maintain sales of the "aging" iPhone 5 during the final three or so months of product life. That careful tightrope walk between devaluing products and incentivizing. Something Tim is more comfortable with than Steve was?
If people "need" an iPhone 5 now, discounts are still discounts. Of course the Best Play(tm) is to wait to see what Apple's got on offer, but hey, savings are still savings, even though monthly plans are where most all the costs are.
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Post by sponge on Jun 22, 2013 8:22:32 GMT -8
Could just be Apple allowing retailers to maintain sales of the "aging" iPhone 5 during the final three or so months of product life. That careful tightrope walk between devaluing products and incentivizing. Something Tim is more comfortable with than Steve was? If people "need" an iPhone 5 now, discounts are still discounts. Of course the Best Play(tm) is to wait to see what Apple's got on offer, but hey, savings are still savings, even though monthly plans are where most all the costs are. I get asked all the time about when the new iPhone is coming out. Now more then ever. Lots of folks are out of contract and ready to upgrade. Personally I have counted over a dozen of friends and relatives who have the 4S and are ready. The discount is to lure those folks who can no longer wait. I recall many who bought the 4S because they were not willing to wait for the 5 in Sept. keep in mind that until the 4 most had contracts that ended between July and Sept. I think Apple is building a nice inventory for this launch. Given the same form factor, I don't see any reason to wait until Sept. but they will, and I think iOS 7 like Mercel said, gives them the excuse to wait. Remember what TC said. They don't want to sell the most, but I do think they want as many people as possible to have access to the latest when it does come out. I suspect sales of the iPhone will drop quickly in July, August and most of Sept. I don't expect a big 4th quarter even with the release of the iPhone 5S in Sept. 1st quarter will be the killer quarter once again.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 8:56:47 GMT -8
Could just be Apple allowing retailers to maintain sales of the "aging" iPhone 5 during the final three or so months of product life. That careful tightrope walk between devaluing products and incentivizing. Something Tim is more comfortable with than Steve was? If people "need" an iPhone 5 now, discounts are still discounts. Of course the Best Play(tm) is to wait to see what Apple's got on offer, but hey, savings are still savings, even though monthly plans are where most all the costs are. +1. And monthlies are reasonably comparable across carriers so the point of distinction is inception cost. As you said, "discounts are discounts." The question is has Mr. Market priced AAPL for two quarters (March and June) with 18% declines in EPS? Assuming Apple realizes the top end of its guidance for the various categories (sales, margin, etc.) and assuming 936M diluted shares after repurchases, we're looking at $7.50. I think Apple beats it, without breaking a sweat.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 9:01:05 GMT -8
I suspect sales of the iPhone will drop quickly in July, August and most of Sept. I don't expect a big 4th quarter even with the release of the iPhone 5S in Sept. 1st quarter will be the killer quarter once again. I think Tim will feel pressure to release iPhone 5s (or 6) earlier than last year to compensate for the falling demand of the outgoing iPhone 5, unless he finds new markets to sell the older phones in FQ4 2013. We'll get a better sense of that with FQ4 guidance.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 22, 2013 10:35:01 GMT -8
Current conditions: 1) Jordan hosts 900 US troops to shield against Syria2) Bernanke to be replaced in January. 3) trillion $ deficit continues. 4) healthcare changes will happen in 2014 5) immigration bill may pass this year. 6) AAPL, (even though it is an excellent long term investment) may not go up this year. 7) unknowns and black swans. 8) Apple vs. DOJ - could go either way IMHO. BIG POSITIVE = North Dakota has lots of oil.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 22, 2013 10:50:47 GMT -8
Mercel, I'm really not sure. See my previous post about easily "justified" iPhone product transition "uncertainty" to keep "implied EPS" under $8.
And at day's end I want ALL iPhone launches to be like all the others. Controlled, an improvement in initial sales, but with solid QC/QA. Because no matter the Antennagate/Screengate/Scuffgate online noise, Apple launched all iPhone generations without truly significant problems (as in post-launch recalls/replacements). Unheralded (Samsung launches just fine too), but no small feat for one of the newest entrants in the smartphone space.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 22, 2013 11:44:23 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 13:09:45 GMT -8
I'm looking forward to Q4 guidance, should light a fire under this puppy. I'm currently modeling 10% YoY EPS growth for FQ4/2013. This would be the first YoY EPS growth since October 2012. What makes guidance for the September quarter important is what it portends for the December quarter (I'm currently modeling 10% YoY EPS growth for this quarter as well). I think the institutions, who have been sitting on their collective hands for almost a year, are going to be looking at this the same way. As you are, I'll be watching guidance like a hungry hawk circling over a fat chicken.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 13:16:55 GMT -8
I think apples new guidance metrics for Q4 will indicate higher revenue and EPS than Q42012 actuals, so regardless of Q3 results we should see a post earnings share spike. Again, I agree. Using what I believe are Apple's current guidance metrics, their guidance for FQ4/2013 should be (conservatively) 9% higher than FQ4/2012 results. Good catch Burgess.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 13:31:19 GMT -8
Good to see max pain help us out this week! Very glad to be out save for a handful of Jan 14 spreads. Shorting on a decisive break of 400. Looking at the various AAPL Max Pain sites, I found them all wanting, so I created my own chart with changes as to how Max Pain is calculated. Firstly I ignore Strikes outside of AAPL's trading range since earnings. This means I'm only looking at Strikes between $385 and $465. Secondly, I've established a base line that I will deduct from future OI numbers. The logic here is that sentiment from 2 weeks ago is not always the same as it is currently. I got burned using www.maximum-pain.com 's $465 Max Pain for June 21 even though I bought $450/$455 Spreads. Granted Bernanke's statements overrode Max Pain, sentiment had been changing in the days leading up to expiry, but didn't show because of legacy interest created weeks/months ago. July 5 Max Pain (my base line calculation) is $420 - $425. Monday's OI, and the day's thereafter, should change that.
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Post by sponge on Jun 22, 2013 14:03:07 GMT -8
Good news made contact with the law enforcement guy. We will talk this weekend. He is anxious to let me know the latest.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 14:04:41 GMT -8
I agree. A strong move over 485 should happen in Oct. July will be a non factor. This is going to be a long hot (flat) summer in the wilderness for our stock. When Apple reported in April ttm dropped from $44.14 to $41.93. Guidance was dismal as it indicated a further drop in revenue. Yet High ISM increased from 10.986 to 11.108 (6.7%). If, as I think Apple will, Apple guides higher revenue for FQ4/2013 than FQ4/2012 results (with similar upward guidance pending for FQ1/2014), I think we can expect a further increase in ISM of ~10%. That generates a price target of $475 prior to October earnings. That price is based on ttm of $39.31 and ISM of 12.085. AAPL's current pricing is based on the investment community's reaction to Bernanke's statements, and not on future expectations of Apple's performance. That changes with July's guidance. I know forecasting sentiment in this manner is dicey, but I do not think the results of such forecasting are out of line. Keep in mind that slowing QE is an indication that the economy is forecasted to begin growing at a faster clip. QE slowing may be bad for the bond market, but only to the extent that money was cheap. Once that bubble is flushed from the system, bond money is going to flow into equities (improving economy). More expensive money is going to look for higher yields, and that is equities.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 14:06:07 GMT -8
No, I was just saying don't count on Oppenheimer for optimistic guidance, for obvious reasons. I'm saying that apples new guidance method (providing the ranges for revenue & margin), even if conservative, should indicate a year on year increase over Q42012. And you would be right.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 22, 2013 14:10:00 GMT -8
Good news made contact with the law enforcement guy. We will talk this weekend. He is anxious to let me know the latest. Be sure and show him the patent application and the few pixel thin sensor concept, reading off a stored image. Not sure if he would be on the cutting edge of the technology, but....
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 14:33:05 GMT -8
Well, like I said, I'll run a quick projection later and see if Oppenheimer really _doesn't_ have "any choice" but to give a range that allows for some revs AND earnings growth YOY. FQ4/2012 reported Gross Margin ($14,401,000,000) was the result of: Revenue $35,966,000,000 Gross Margin % 40.04 To exceed Gross Margin (above) Apple need only guide $36.0 Billion in Revenue and 36.00% GM. Current guidance metrics translates that guidance to the following results: Revenue $38,160,000,000 Gross Margin % 38.00 Gross Margin $14,500,000,000 I think Apple is going to guide Revenue in the $38.5 Billion to $40.5 Billion range. As for EPS calculations I'm modeling 944,000,000 fully diluted shares (less would be better
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 14:34:54 GMT -8
iPhone 5S will undoubtedly have a tentpole software feature to accompany its spec bumps. I'm hoping it is a camera app that captures real world objects as 3D models, which can then be uploaded to the apple Maps database. We need something more than THAT I'm afraid. Yeah, that's a geek feature.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 14:36:00 GMT -8
Is there anyone who doesn't think we will see a new lower cost iPhone released alongside the iPhone 5S? Me. I haven't been right for a while. Time to turn that record around.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 14:40:45 GMT -8
Won't the 4, 4S, and 5 be available, and be cheaper than the 5S? Well if the 4 remains available that would be a first for apple (having 4 models for sale). Does anyone else think this will happen? I Presume the low cost iPhone would replace the iPhone 4 & 4S as the entry level model, selling as a more attractive "new" model, and meaning the whole iPhone lineup would then be standardized with 4" screens, a lightning connector, and Siri capable. The 4 will be EOL in favor of a 4S, 5 and 5S/6 lineup. I see no benefit in redoing proven designs that already sell at a discount, with the exception of the lightning connector on the 4S.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 14:50:28 GMT -8
Having a new form factor A5-based iPhone at the $0 price point might even cause a meaningful bump in sales in saturated markets like the US. To say nothing of other markets, which probably won't have that kind of fresh or maybe even competitive product at that price point (you will add LTE, right Apple?) Where the less expensive iPhone is ostensibly targeted are emerging markets where the infrastructure does not support LTE. Major markets like the US and EU are only just now offering LTE outside of major metropolitan markets. China Mobile has only just recently begun rolling it out. No need to offer a capability, that can't be used, in a "cheap" handset.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 14:57:19 GMT -8
Doesn't Apple have a 30 day price protection policy? Kinda early inventory clearing for a late September launch. I wouldn't have expected this until late July/early August.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 15:00:13 GMT -8
Consumers are stupid. But my comment was more aimed at the media making a big deal about price cuts as if it suggests sales are sluggish. The media is only capable of two dimensional thinking.
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Post by sponge on Jun 22, 2013 15:02:51 GMT -8
Good news made contact with the law enforcement guy. We will talk this weekend. He is anxious to let me know the latest. Be sure and show him the patent application and the few pixel thin sensor concept, reading off a stored image. Not sure if he would be on the cutting edge of the technology, but.... I have already sent him the link to that story. I want him to study it before we talk.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 22, 2013 15:10:57 GMT -8
Good news made contact with the law enforcement guy. We will talk this weekend. He is anxious to let me know the latest. Ask him to tell you everything he knows about Mobile Payments, which is what actually matters. That should be good. I know it will never sink in, but end users never know the latest. If they have inside knowledge, then they will be under NDA. And they won't spill their guts to strangers so that they can turn around and plaster it all over the Internet. And in this case, the guy is in a field that is completely irrelevant. But I am sure that will fly completely over your head. Just like always.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 22, 2013 15:12:05 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Jun 22, 2013 15:27:59 GMT -8
Except that article was written in March, and he predicted a June launch. Seems like he is off-base this time.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 22, 2013 15:32:11 GMT -8
Well, let's see what shows up in September. *shrug* I don't believe any CheapPhone will have an A6 either.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 22, 2013 15:41:04 GMT -8
Well, let's see what shows up in September. *shrug* I don't believe any CheapPhone will have an A6 either. I agree with the thrust if your original post though. By that time, the A6 will be superseded so an inexpensive, but really solid phone could be feasible. If Apple goes down market a bit, they would pursue value and not cheap. An A6'er would be quite the value device.
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Post by cbingle on Jun 22, 2013 16:06:29 GMT -8
greg thurman: Appears you have been drinking heavily today and trying to convince yourself on AAPL.
Good on ya mate...STMF
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