aapldamus
Member
"Miss Cleo ain't got NOTHING on me!"
Posts: 64
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Post by aapldamus on Jun 24, 2013 7:51:49 GMT -8
Ouch, my account is bleeding red. Hopefully this sting will remind me going forward to focus on buying shares and writing options (covered calls), as opposed to just buying calls & trading spreads on AAPL.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 7:52:58 GMT -8
Back over 400!!!!
Bud
You have too much class:)
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 24, 2013 7:53:45 GMT -8
Buybacks help over the long term. Day to day there's no discernible benefit. They can't buy enough shares on any given day to support price. My point is that I don't think the buyback will help very much in the long-term either. They're buying back 15% of their stock over 3 years. 15% higher than 380 is 437. 15% higher than 400 is 460. So if the buyback props us up into the mid 400s, what good was it? Keeping the money in cash on the books was at least being valued at some sort of multiple by the market.
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Post by rickag on Jun 24, 2013 7:55:05 GMT -8
I thought the huge buyback was supposed to prevent us from ever being this low again? I thought apple should have held on to its cash and I'm gonna stick with that... After all, I think the only thing that would've put a long-term floor in this most misunderstood and hated stock was having x% of its value in cash... Three years from now it could have nearly $400 per share in cash. With the buyback it won't, and there won't be that metric to help buoy the price. Instead, we will have an eps that is 15% higher, which might mean nothing in this age of PE compression. Buybacks help over the long term. Day to day there's no discernible benefit. They can't buy enough shares on any given day to support price. Yes, you are correct. but just for fun, I did a napkin calculation. Apple can only buy up to 25% of the days volume. .25 * 15,000,000 shares = 3,750,000 shares 3,750,000 shares * $398 = $1,492,500,000 The buyback was increase by $50,000,000,000 $50,000,000,000 / $1,492,500,000 = 33.5 days $50,000,000,000 / $398 = 125,628,141 shares bought back in a little over a month. 941,000,000 diluted shares - 125,628,141 = 815,371,859 shares left. So even at this share price your 15% is dead on. This stock market wants a positive catalyst before AAPL will move up appreciably. The current P/E is building in lower profits for Apple moving forward.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 8:05:51 GMT -8
The buy back will take place over 3 years so the impact will be less then 10% as the share price goes up and they issue more shares.
The impact must be looked at over 10 years. What happens if they buy another $50 billion starting 2016 and again in 2019.
30% compounded becomes quite impressive when the stock is trading over $1000 a share.
I think aapl will split when we get over $1000. So we will see some really big appreciation between 2015-2019
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Post by appledoc on Jun 24, 2013 8:06:32 GMT -8
Buybacks help over the long term. Day to day there's no discernible benefit. They can't buy enough shares on any given day to support price. My point is that I don't think the buyback will help very much in the long-term either. They're buying back 15% of their stock over 3 years. 15% higher than 380 is 437. 15% higher than 400 is 460. So if the buyback props us up into the mid 400s, what good was it? Keeping the money in cash on the books was at least being valued at some sort of multiple by the market. It wasn't though. We reached historic lows for P/C before the expanded buyback was announced. Everyone who bought based on P/C not dropping below 4.0 or whatever it was got burned big time. The fall from 705 to now and the prceeding rapid rise has made people forget that getting a double in share price in a year's time isn't the norm. Going from 400 to 460 would be a solid gain for a year.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 8:10:10 GMT -8
My point is that I don't think the buyback will help very much in the long-term either. They're buying back 15% of their stock over 3 years. 15% higher than 380 is 437. 15% higher than 400 is 460. So if the buyback props us up into the mid 400s, what good was it? Keeping the money in cash on the books was at least being valued at some sort of multiple by the market. It wasn't though. We reached historic lows for P/C before the expanded buyback was announced. Everyone who bought based on P/C not dropping below 4.0 or whatever it was got burned big time. The fall from 705 to now and the prceeding rapid rise has made people forget that getting a double in share price in a year's time isn't the norm. Going from 400 to 460 would be a solid gain for a year. Well said
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jun 24, 2013 8:22:42 GMT -8
Keeping the money in cash on the books was at least being valued at some sort of multiple by the market. It wasn't though. We reached historic lows for P/C before the expanded buyback was announced. Everyone who bought based on P/C not dropping below 4.0 or whatever it was got burned big time. The fall from 705 to now and the prceeding rapid rise has made people forget that getting a double in share price in a year's time isn't the norm. Going from 400 to 460 would be a solid gain for a year. We're talking about going from 400 to 460 over three years. Yes, it dropped below 4x P/C, but even at 3x P/C, if Apple were to have over 200 B in cash in three years, 3x cash would be over 600. Instead of 460.
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 24, 2013 8:27:27 GMT -8
www.businessinsider.com/apple-cuts-iphone-orders-says-analyst-2013-6 25-30 mil iphone summer, 50-55 million ie same as last year for xmas quarter. These are peter misek's estimates. Ironically he only cut his price target 15 dollars to 405. I mean it shows even the most negative analyst who releases notes intentionally at a negative market day can barely justify much lower prices for the stock. WHY in God's name are you still posting BI links here?
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Post by calidagirl on Jun 24, 2013 8:31:29 GMT -8
Apple needs that final bad guidance for the summer announced and over, so the stock can begin to regroup. I suspect that August and September will be the best months of the year to own this stock based on the dividend payout, bottom in profits close to in, and nearly every product looking for a reboot in the fall.
Great Post Lance, my sentiments exactly; however, I would add if products are not rebooted in a manner that tickles the media and/or new products are not announced then we can plan on the media dog piling on.
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Post by calidagirl on Jun 24, 2013 8:40:50 GMT -8
BTW, Apple TV with HBO GO could be the game changer to get people more accustomed to watching WHAT they want WHEN they want. DirecTV folded after ONE day of social media pressure. I now have Netflix, HBO GO and Hulu Plus plus a gaggle of other content options. I'm now looking into OTA local stations w/antenna. It's a bigger deal than many recognize. If I find some way to keep HBO GO without DirecTV, I'll say sayonara to the latter. appadvice.com/appnn/2013/06/opinion-apple-is-finally-getting-serious-about-television[/quote]You Betcha, pay attention to Aereo.com. They are in Boston & NY, with plans for about 2 dozen other cities moving westward. This or something equivalent will be a game changer.
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Post by mrentropy on Jun 24, 2013 8:43:31 GMT -8
Apple discounting the iPhone 5 a few months before the release of the 5s is a bad sign for FYQ3 and Q4 sales and margin. Apple is not discounting it, retailers are. Apple makes the same money either way.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 8:47:09 GMT -8
You Betcha, pay attention to Aereo.com. They are in Boston & NY, with plans for about 2 dozen other cities moving westward. This or something equivalent will be a game changer. I'm aware of Aereo and am on the notification list when they add my city. Barry Diller gave a great interview at AllThingsD recently. I'm not surprised with AAPL today: The stock market is red and fund managers are scrubbing off the stench of AAPL from their books this week (for quarterly reporting purposes). Retail is running scared and institutions are doing window dressing.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 9:05:48 GMT -8
Does Apple get 30% from Netflix for iOS subscriptions?
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Post by tuffett on Jun 24, 2013 9:08:54 GMT -8
bud777: iPod Touch is not a product line. iPod is a product line. iPad is a product line. Mac is a product line. You're right that Tim/Apple hint at a lot of things. History shows that with time, they become reality. It's Apple's way. Nice try though, I appreciate the effort. My apologies Tuffet. If you will review my posts, I was simply asking you to acknowledge that everyone is guessing here, everyone makes blanket statements to some degree, and everyone deserves to be treated with respect. I asked you to refrain from using disdain when you disagree. We are all responsible for the tone of the board, and it is just unpleasant to read that sort of post. But, perhaps I am being unfair to you. Not everyone is capable of this kind of restraint, especially when they have seen large losses. If you cannot control it, let me once again offer that you vent to me privately in a PM. Ii promise to listen to you and respond. I don't appreciate your patronizing tone, but since this is a message board you are welcome to use whatever tone you want. I will show my disdain if there is a post worthy of it. This isn't a carnival. Have a great day
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Post by macoz on Jun 24, 2013 9:28:26 GMT -8
I thought the huge buyback was supposed to prevent us from ever being this low again? I thought apple should have held on to its cash and I'm gonna stick with that... After all, I think the only thing that would've put a long-term floor in this most misunderstood and hated stock was having x% of its value in cash... Three years from now it could have nearly $400 per share in cash. With the buyback it won't, and there won't be that metric to help buoy the price. Instead, we will have an eps that is 15% higher, which might mean nothing in this age of PE compression. The share buy back is $60 billion over 3 years. The dividend payout is at least 30 billion over 3 years. So the share buy back only reduces the cash per share to $360 by your estimate. Not too much and not too far from your estimate of $400 cash per share. I hope you are not objecting as well to the dividend payments.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 24, 2013 9:31:49 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Jun 24, 2013 9:39:55 GMT -8
That employee morale comment is one that I can actually believe. I spoke to some Apple guys at a recent conference, and they sure were not happy about Apple stock performance. When people watch a big part of their comp package disappear, it has an impact.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 9:40:46 GMT -8
I have been hearing the same thing since Dec. TC seems to be talking to employees more then shareholders times.
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Post by terps530 on Jun 24, 2013 9:52:35 GMT -8
I have been hearing the same thing since Dec. TC seems to be talking to employees more then shareholders times. have you been hearing it from cnbc? because that's where I heard it from this morning. good thing that is 'news'.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 24, 2013 9:56:03 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jun 24, 2013 9:56:32 GMT -8
Well I thought AAPL might break below $400 again, but not this quick. I felt there might be a slow meltdown until just before the earnings report and still might not break below $400.
In 4 days this drop from ~$432 to $400 has me spooked, my plan for buying AAPL shares @ $420 and $400 during any slow melt down has been tabled and I am waiting, for what, I don't know.
In my best Crapshoot(Don Rickles) voice, " Tim, make a deal" with NTT Docomo and China Mobile. Except, as it stands now, not sure even deals would support AAPL very much until sales numbers roll in.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 10:00:28 GMT -8
I have been hearing the same thing since Dec. TC seems to be talking to employees more then shareholders times. have you been hearing it from cnbc? because that's where I heard it from this morning. good thing that is 'news'. No I heard it thru 3rd parties that work at Apple.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jun 24, 2013 10:09:39 GMT -8
Jefferies is a notorius AAPL bear. Doesn't suprise me.
It's the Analyst equivilent to Business Insider or the heavily Bear shilled AAPL blog on CNNMoney's website.
Hey, doesn't Jefferies also run a toy company?
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 10:13:27 GMT -8
The challenge we have with aapl now is that it is so tied to the market. So unless the market goes up we have little momentum to get back over 430.
We only recovered 3 bucks because the market recovered 160 points. That is pitiful.
It will be a long summer in hell for us.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 24, 2013 10:14:36 GMT -8
Benedict Evans on Twitter:
"Idly wondering if the iOS7 move away from bitmapped UIs to text sets up a move to resolution independence and a variety of screen sizes."
Marco Arment said a similar thing last week.
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Post by macwire on Jun 24, 2013 10:18:41 GMT -8
Dragonfly doji forming on indexes fwiw...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 10:19:47 GMT -8
That employee morale comment is one that I can actually believe. I spoke to some Apple guys at a recent conference, and they sure were not happy about Apple stock performance. When people watch a big part of their comp package disappear, it has an impact. I agree. And it could explain why Tim Cook opted to put some of his stock-based compensation at risk -- not that it's going to make a material impact to his living standard. Still, it's a vote of confidence by the the top man in charge. I dispute those who contend Tim Cook doesn't care about the stock price. He's too smart to not recognize that stock performance weighs heavy on employee recruitment and retention.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 10:21:43 GMT -8
Downloading it now. Will load it on one of my iPads this evening.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 10:24:56 GMT -8
Dragonfly doji forming on indexes fwiw... Good? Bad? Neutral? I used to study under a Zen Master in my earlier years...
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