Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 19:23:50 GMT -8
IMHO, not even stock. (Cue the Last Bull (Regular) Standing alarms) There is an absolute crisis of confidence/sentiment in AAPL just as the markets threaten to correct further. I see AAPL in "falling knife" mode. While downside is theoretically limited (there's only so far AAPL can go before the price gets beyond ridiculous), it's not like you have to wait too long for confirmation of new direction. Between 381 and 419, purgatory; below 381, check old support levels; above 419, maybe there's some stability/rangebound possibility depending on what the signs show at that time. I have an early warning trendline (potential for micro bullish composure) that's at about 430 right now, but it seems so far away. Obviously, just my opinion, YMMV, and AAPL has a reputation for being extremely unpredictable. After mortgaging the house to the tune of $400,000 and buying 900 shares at 435, I had to tell my wife that the shares had dropped to 400. She just coolly said, shouldn't we be buying more then? Good for her. As I understand it, your strategy is based on Apple's dividend (which is enough to cover interest expense on your home loan). If that's true then this selloff really hasn't changed anything: you still own the shares, you're still going to collect your dividends, and you have five years for AAPL to recover (and maybe go up). I'm thinking of doing something quite similar.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 19:38:38 GMT -8
There's so much irrationality to the stock market, especially in AAPL's case, even I find it hard to recommend anything but common shares. When I compare GOOG's P/E of 26 vs. AAPL's lowly 9.6, I can certainly understand the angst.
Wall Street needs a reboot.
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icam
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Post by icam on Jun 24, 2013 20:01:04 GMT -8
Excuse my vent....Captain Obvious here saying the operative words are "New Products". And, everything is riding on Tim's promises of innovative new product cycles starting this fall. I have a lot of money riding on Tim's ever diminishing credibility. He better fucking deliver.... Until then, AAPL price action might make Zabitsky look like a genius...back to my cave. Thank you for allowing me to vent my frustration.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 20:17:11 GMT -8
"As part of this program, the Board has increased its share repurchase authorization to $60 billion from the $10 billion level announced last year. This is the largest single share repurchase authorization in history and is expected to be executed by the end of calendar 2015. Apple also expects to utilize about $1 billion annually to net-share-settle vesting restricted stock units." The original $10 billion was for preventing share creep. The increase of $50 billion should reduce diluted shares. 1 million shares / quarter over 3 years would only be 12 million shares total. Maybe my math or logic is faulty, could be, I am old. but $50 billion divided by 12 million shares means Apple would be paying $4,167 per share. Help me, I am confused. Assuming straight-line repurchase over 33 months and average PPS of $445 (in FQ3 2013), Apple could reduce diluted shares by approx. 12M this quarter. Add back 2M shares for stock options this quarter and maybe they reduce share count down to 936M shares. Assuming straight line purchasing over 11 quarters, Apple had a June quarter budget of $4.5 Billion to buy back shares. At your $445 average PPS that's about 10 million shares, or stated another way: 162,000 shares per trading day. I do not see share count being reduced a total of 10 million shares this quarter. Average daily volume (15 million) since earnings is 1.3 million shares lower than last quarter, and OI is lower as well. The last time daily trading dropped below 15 million was the December quarter 2011. If Apple hasn't already acquired 10 million shares this quarter (I'm not seeing it in the numbers) it is going to have to go on a serious buying spree this week to get them. Anything is possible, but... I'm sticking with my estimate of a net reduction of 1,000,000 shares, unless volume suddenly and drastically shoots up during the remainder of this week. Of course today's volume (1.6 million above the average) could be the start of that run. We'll have to see what happens this week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 20:58:41 GMT -8
A net reduction of 1M shares this quarter??
Making inferences from trading volume is just so ethereal it blows my mind you would posit that ahead of a safer (by far) assumption of using straight line (not that I think it will be that methodical). Really, a reduction of only 1M for the entire quarter? You dropped a digit on the back of your napkin.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 21:21:27 GMT -8
There's so much irrationality to the stock market, especially in AAPL's case, even I find it hard to recommend anything but common shares. When I compare GOOG's P/E of 26 vs. AAPL's lowly 9.6, I can certainly understand the angst. Wall Street needs a reboot. To be honest that is the reason I am optimistic about aapl. We too can get a p/e of 26. Give it 7 years.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 21:27:28 GMT -8
I won't just eat my hat if Apple gets to a 26 multiple on actual net income growth from here to whenever (adjusting for any share splits).
I'd treat an AFB2 party of up to 100 to 2 rounds of drinks at the Cosmo, Encore lounge or similar, because even dumb brick ol me would accidentally find a way to make a nice chunk of change from that kinda price upswing.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 24, 2013 21:29:56 GMT -8
A net reduction of 1M shares this quarter?? Making inferences from trading volume is just so ethereal it blows my mind you would posit that ahead of a safer (by far) assumption of using straight line (not that I think it will be that methodical). Really, a reduction of only 1M for the entire quarter? You dropped a digit on the back of your napkin. I can't understand how Apple could NOT have bought back 7-10 million shares. Straight line, price targets, "buy every Friday"....whatever. Why would they not have been putting the cash to work after making such a big deal out of it? How do they explain how the new expanded buyback plan resulted in one million shares purchased?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 21:31:34 GMT -8
They have a deadline. We should see a share reduction of at least 8-10M when Apple reports in July.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 24, 2013 21:32:19 GMT -8
I won't just eat my hat if Apple gets to a 26 multiple on actual net income growth from here to whenever (adjusting for any share splits). I'd treat an AFB2 party of up to 100 to 2 rounds of drinks at the Cosmo, Encore lounge or similar, be even dumb brick ol me would accidentally find a way to make a nice chunk of change from that kinda price upswing. Hmmmm..maybe I can get Tim to take a massive one time write off that the market won't punish the stock price for......and we can hit that 26. I need a drink...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 21:32:58 GMT -8
Hmmmm..maybe I can get Tim to take a massive one time write off that the market won't punish the stock price for......and we can hit that 26. I need a drink... Net income growth Red. Sorry, that won't qualify. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 21:35:39 GMT -8
Nikkei is going through another fun session. By which I mean, a bit turbulent, and down close to two percent so far.
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 21:50:09 GMT -8
I won't just eat my hat if Apple gets to a 26 multiple on actual net income growth from here to whenever (adjusting for any share splits). I'd treat an AFB2 party of up to 100 to 2 rounds of drinks at the Cosmo, Encore lounge or similar, because even dumb brick ol me would accidentally find a way to make a nice chunk of change from that kinda price upswing. Will bookmark this thread and bring it back in 2020. . I want my drink.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 24, 2013 21:53:05 GMT -8
If I'm still posting on an AFB board, let me know. Because if AAPL gets to a multiple of 26 on the conditions I set (a trajectory of consistent YOY actual net income growth, with Apple still doing objectively well), I might have enough spare dough to BOOK 100 ROOMS for a night or two.
(Not promising that, obviously. And let's set the per drink limit at $10 since we're talking stuff that won't ever happen, much as I might like it to.)
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Post by sponge on Jun 24, 2013 22:11:49 GMT -8
If I'm still posting on an AFB board, let me know. Because if AAPL gets to a multiple of 26 on the conditions I set (a trajectory of consistent YOY actual net income growth, with Apple still doing objectively well), I might have enough spare dough to BOOK 100 ROOMS for a night or two. (Not promising that, obviously. And let's set the per drink limit at $10 since we're talking stuff that won't ever happen, much as I might like it to.) 7 years ago before the iPhone Apple had a p/e of 26. It will happen again.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jun 24, 2013 22:29:42 GMT -8
After mortgaging the house to the tune of $400,000 and buying 900 shares at 435, I had to tell my wife that the shares had dropped to 400. She just coolly said, shouldn't we be buying more then? Good for her. As I understand it, your strategy is based on Apple's dividend (which is enough to cover interest expense on your home loan). If that's true then this selloff really hasn't changed anything: you still own the shares, you're still going to collect your dividends, and you have five years for AAPL to recover (and maybe go up). I'm thinking of doing something quite similar. Thanks Greg. You seem to be one of the few who gets it. You are right. The downside is covered. The worst thing that can happen over the next 7 years is that we only make $3000 a year on the interest. Good luck on getting the mortgage rates now though. I think you would have to get about 2.75 to be comfortable
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 23:05:51 GMT -8
A net reduction of 1M shares this quarter?? Making inferences from trading volume is just so ethereal it blows my mind you would posit that ahead of a safer (by far) assumption of using straight line (not that I think it will be that methodical). Really, a reduction of only 1M for the entire quarter? You dropped a digit on the back of your napkin. Gee, I thought 1,000,000 shares was the safe bet. One million fewer shares puts my EPS estimate at $8.10. Ten million share count reduction puts my EPS estimate at $8.20. I can accept that one million would disappoint and put management's stated buyback plan under suspicion. I'm just saying that if the buyback plan was backstopping the printed PPS I'm not seeing the market respond, with either greater volume, or a higher PPS. In other words the purported point of a buyback plan isn't showing. If I assume that ten million is reasonable, then we should expect another ten million in the September quarter. That would bring my FQ4 EPS estimate to ~$10.65, a YoY 25% increase going into the December quarter, which blows right through $17.00 and another 25% YoY increase. I will dearly love being wrong in this case, because if I am, after turning in 2 such strong (and consecutive quarters) ISM jumps to 14.00+ and an AAPL trading above $600 in the March quarter... I do thank everyone for their responses.
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