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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 16:00:20 GMT -8
I've been thinking about Apple's new marketing of "Designed by Apple in California." Is Apple tempting Korean pride with copying this idea, making it more obvious where Samsung originates? I mean, South Korea isn't exactly loved by China or Japan, in particular.
Here in the US, I would think many customers enjoy the feel-good part of an American success story. Obviously, not everyone though if you spend any time at BGR, which is a haven of Android juveniles hell bent on hazing Apple at the slightest provocation.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2013 16:11:58 GMT -8
Not even remotely. Done forever because there's no new product launch in the next six months? Please. Let's not forget the iPhone and the legions of loyal customers most of whom upgrade at least every other year. I'd wager that smartphones aren't going anywhere in the next 2-3 years, and the overseas potential is still enormous. I do believe the stock will get utterly crushed if nothing new comes out this fall. Because TC either suggested we'd get a new product line, or he did not choose his words very carefully. But would it mean game over? Hardly. I still have yet to see any other technology company innovate for the masses the way Apple does. Are you going to bet on the proven commodity, or the goons who wait for and then copy the next big thing? |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 25, 2013 16:31:43 GMT -8
Apple is done Forever? Can I just take my share of the $155 million in cash and go home?
Revenue keeps growing.....but the company is Done Forever.
Forever.......is a long time.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 16:47:23 GMT -8
Apple is done Forever? Can I just take my share of the $155 million in cash and go home? Revenue keeps growing.....but the company is Done Forever. Forever.......is a long time. LOL. There's little wrong with Apple, Inc. Their's a LOT wrong with Wall Street. If Apple had reported normal calendar year 2012 sales and profit growth, calendar 2013 sales and profits would have walked AAPL upstairs instead Wall Street putting it in the basement. Calendar 2012 was NOT the "new normal" and it's a big mistake to forget that. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 17:06:53 GMT -8
Wow Red, you're settling for less. I mean, it's $155 _B_illion right? ;D
appledoc, there is no way in hell iOS 7, iPhone, and iPad don't get refreshed by "Fall" read: September/October. Steve never missed a super-critical launch in years and I doubt Tim of all people would. Forever really IS a long time.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2013 17:09:52 GMT -8
Wow Red, you're settling for less. I mean, it's $155 _B_illion right? ;D appledoc, there is no way in hell iOS 7, iPhone, and iPad don't get refreshed by "Fall" read: September/October. Steve never missed a super-critical launch in years and I doubt Tim of all people would. Forever really IS a long time. TC inferred new product categories, did he not? |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 17:11:22 GMT -8
EDIT: Yes he did.
But this is what he actually said (via Morningstar):
Though I regard that as more the "gravy" than the new product AAPL really needs to regain its footing. iOS 7 being well-received, and snazzy new iPhones (including the CheapPhone) and iPads should be enough to provide price support on their own. I mean they do account for a ridiculous share of Apple's revenues after all.
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Post by bud777 on Jun 25, 2013 17:14:47 GMT -8
My first payment is August 1, so no harm done there yet. Did you follow me off the ledge? If you did, PM me. We can help each other out. The good thing about this position is I really have a 7 year time frame to get back. I do not see the pressure this year or next. The fundamentals are so much in favor of Apple, I believe that they alone would bring it back. My personal belief is that Apple's best years are ahead of it. I have been in software development since computers had tubes...literally. I know this field and I know Apple. If you are in it, just hold on and be patient As understand it, if AAPL is above 435 in 7 years you made out. Bear in mind that even if Apple doesn't grow much if any in 7 years, inflation alone will elevate AAPL. And with our idiot government spending an extra trillion or 2 PER YEAR inflation is not if but is when and how high. I assume your mortgage payment is locked in and not variable. In the bad old days of that idiot Jimmy Carter, my mortgage didn't go up, food increased somewhat but my pay raises ballooned and the interest in my profit sharing skyrocketed. Let alone the value of my house. What you did has risk, but maybe not as much as some think. Just to be clear Rick, The mortgage is a 7/1 ARM locked in at 2.375. After 7 years, the rate can rise to 7.75% and no higher. By that time, because of amortization of the loan, the interest costs would still be covered by the dividends (assuming reasonable dividend growth). The net profit (dividends-interest) on the position is about $2500 per year regardless of the stock price. I sell covered calls 40 points above the current price each month and make another $2000 per month. I never sell calls below the purchase price for the stock, in my case 435. If we drop below 395, I just wait. I can get out anytime the stock is above 435, so essentially, I am betting that Apple will be above 435 sometime in the next 7 years ( but i could go to 30 years if I had to). I also set aside enough cash to make the payments for 7 years before I got into this. This was just a very unusual situation where cheap money and a devalued stock aligned. If you tried to set it up today, I don't think the rates would be as favorable, but it still might be attractive. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 17:21:19 GMT -8
Apple is done Forever? Can I just take my share of the $155 million in cash and go home? Revenue keeps growing.....but the company is Done Forever. Forever.......is a long time. LOL. There's little wrong with Apple, Inc. Their's a LOT wrong with Wall Street. If Apple had reported normal calendar year 2012 sales and profit growth, calendar 2013 sales and profits would have walked AAPL upstairs instead Wall Street putting it in the basement. Calendar 2012 was NOT the "new normal" and it's a big mistake to forget that. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 17:30:38 GMT -8
I've been thinking about Apple's new marketing of "Designed by Apple in California." Is Apple tempting Korean pride with copying this idea, making it more obvious where Samsung originates? I mean, South Korea isn't exactly loved by China or Japan, in particular. Here in the US, I would think many customers enjoy the feel-good part of an American success story. Obviously, not everyone though if you spend any time at BGR, which is a haven of Android juveniles hell bent on hazing Apple at the slightest provocation. New marketing, but a very, very old "slogan" that goes back quite some years. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 17:36:46 GMT -8
Bud...This one is for you. If Apple (the company) does not come up with a new product that has a potential income stream equal to the IPad in 2H of 2013, AAPL is toast forEVER. Sad that it has come to this, but reality sometimes bites. And I am not talking about a variation in IPhone size or new carrier or life is not fair stuff. Cracks are everywhere. 1 refi payment down...83 to go. Plan accordingly....I am. STMF Toast forever based on just the second half of 2013? I don't know what set you off, but you may want to reconsider that statement. And yes I will argue Apple adding more carriers will positively affect AAPL, they are on only about half the carriers worldwide. China Mobile, NTT Docomo, India and South America come to mind. Selling more than one model of new iPhone whether it be a larger form or a lower cost iPhone will also positively affect AAPL. And that doesn't take into account the 800 lb gorilla in the fact that Apple can leverage 500 million credit cards they have registered in many ways. Are the days of Apple growing by 60 - 80% over, likely, but there is still plenty of growth left. Especially the battle over the living room looms big. This is what annoys me right now...so much that AAPL could be doing, but isn't. New carriers...500 Million Credit Cards...Larger Smartphones (why not have 3.5", 4" and 4.5"?), TV, even an SDK and a more powerful Apple TV box that could have access to the App Store....basically anything. All of these are so easy to do for Apple with its infrastructure, resources and already built up environment (iTunes), its mind boggling to me that they don't seem to be doing anything. |
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Post by rickag on Jun 25, 2013 17:43:10 GMT -8
bud777
Even better.
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Post by rickag on Jun 25, 2013 17:44:51 GMT -8
Toast forever based on just the second half of 2013? I don't know what set you off, but you may want to reconsider that statement. And yes I will argue Apple adding more carriers will positively affect AAPL, they are on only about half the carriers worldwide. China Mobile, NTT Docomo, India and South America come to mind. Selling more than one model of new iPhone whether it be a larger form or a lower cost iPhone will also positively affect AAPL. And that doesn't take into account the 800 lb gorilla in the fact that Apple can leverage 500 million credit cards they have registered in many ways. Are the days of Apple growing by 60 - 80% over, likely, but there is still plenty of growth left. Especially the battle over the living room looms big. This is what annoys me right now...so much that AAPL could be doing, but isn't. New carriers...500 Million Credit Cards...Larger Smartphones (why not have 3.5", 4" and 4.5"?), TV, even an SDK and a more powerful Apple TV box that could have access to the App Store....basically anything. All of these are so easy to do for Apple with its infrastructure, resources and already built up environment (iTunes), its mind boggling to me that they don't seem to be doing anything. They are, there just not telling you or me, never have never will. |
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Post by appledoc on Jun 25, 2013 18:15:16 GMT -8
This is what annoys me right now...so much that AAPL could be doing, but isn't. New carriers...500 Million Credit Cards...Larger Smartphones (why not have 3.5", 4" and 4.5"?), TV, even an SDK and a more powerful Apple TV box that could have access to the App Store....basically anything. All of these are so easy to do for Apple with its infrastructure, resources and already built up environment (iTunes), its mind boggling to me that they don't seem to be doing anything. They are, there just not telling you or me, never have never will. Well, you don't know that. What they need to do is SOMETHING. There hasn't been a meaningful product released in 2013. We haven't even started to hear strong rumors of upcoming product releases. Which typically means we're looking at the end of August at the earliest for a new iPhone/iPad. Two-thirds of the year with nothing new except for a 128GB iPad and new MacBook Airs. That's terrible. |
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 25, 2013 18:26:33 GMT -8
vitalogy80, appledoc, and others are right (in my opinion). The time has come for TC to put forth the fruits of their labor. Something new needs to move the needle. If not, many will think that TC is too busy putting out personnel fires instead of getting his people to focus on developing the next big thing. It doesn't matter what the Wizard (TC) has going on behind the curtain (veil of secrecy) ... it's all about perception. TC talked the talk...now he needs to walk the walk. At least for me, it is somewhat comforting that his comp is now more tied into the share performance (as it should be).
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Post by cbingle on Jun 25, 2013 19:01:49 GMT -8
Boy, did I stir up a hornets nest....My point is I don't think Timmy has it in him. And more importantly, Wall Street, China Mobile, you name it, don't think he has the stones. Time will tell.
A $200 billion per year treadmill is very hard to ACCELERATE...but easy to deteriorate.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 19:11:31 GMT -8
appledoc, not quite. MBA is a staple product although dwarfed by the iOS lineup.
As I'm sure most of you are aware, like it or not, "do something" has never been Apple 2.0, nor will it be Apple "double down on product secrecy" 3.0. Of course Apple knows what it has to do, and the core products will be iterated and shipped this year (otherwise Bad Things(tm) will happen). But one giant problem is a certain Scott Forstall (y'know, the DRI for iOS) presiding over, maybe even causing, Apple to change up to a Fall iOS release schedule. This isn't something Apple can reverse right away, and I really doubt iPhone 4S faced much in the way of hardware issues. You can't start criticizing Apple and iOS product cadence without going back to iOS itself.
The other problem is that Apple culture and deadlines don't mix. There's established products you can be sure will be updated around every 12 months or sooner, but the ones "everyone" thinks Apple should release "right now" "in this form" (BigPhone, CheapPhone, iWatch, Apple television, etc.)...that's the "Agony and Ecstasy of Apple" right there. Hyperfocus and product secrecy have "costs". And it's up to the individual investor/trader to accept them, or not.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 19:33:14 GMT -8
Again, Apple skipped the iPad refresh in March/April. ONE product amidst a well established pattern of releasing new product If you want Samsung's "spray and pray" you have the wrong company. The MacBook Air is winning raves and the Mac Pro DID look "a little different" to this set of eyes. iOS7 is more than warmed over, it's reinvented.
Fixate your frustration on Wall Street. THAT'S where it belongs -- not that anyone can do much about it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 19:45:18 GMT -8
Yes and no. In some ways Apple is "incompatible" with Wall Street, always has been, always will be.
But iOS 7 looks to be great. A solid foundation for iPhone and iPad.
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Post by chinacat on Jun 25, 2013 19:51:10 GMT -8
Boy, did I stir up a hornets nest....My point is I don't think Timmy has it in him. And more importantly, Wall Street, China Mobile, you name it, don't think he has the stones. Time will tell. A $200 billion per year treadmill is very hard to ACCELERATE...but easy to deteriorate. I'd call voluntarily risking millions in guaranted compensation, with no additional upside, based, at least partially, on AAPL performance, shows major "stones," as much as I hate that juvenile phrase. Steve Jobs put a lot of trust in Tim Cook, and that's good enough for me. Call me sentimental, |
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Post by prazan on Jun 25, 2013 19:56:06 GMT -8
Where'd that 160.10 SPY print come from? Trying to fool with technical traders or something? LOL. Maybe a fat finger trade at 3:36PM EST. Doesn't count in my book. Sorry, a little late to be weighing in, but Cobra calls it a Phantom Bar. |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 25, 2013 19:58:43 GMT -8
Again, Apple skipped the iPad refresh in March/April. ONE product amidst a well established pattern of releasing new product If you want Samsung's "spray and pray" you have the wrong company. The MacBook Air is winning raves and the Mac Pro DID look "a little different" to this set of eyes. iOS7 is more than warmed over, it's reinvented. Fixate your frustration on Wall Street. THAT'S where it belongs -- not that anyone can do much about it. How does beta 2 of IOs7 look on your iPad? |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 20:00:50 GMT -8
Thanks prazan! Any other color on that (besides "fooling" casual candle watchers?)
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Post by nathanstevens on Jun 25, 2013 20:08:52 GMT -8
Boy, did I stir up a hornets nest....My point is I don't think Timmy has it in him. And more importantly, Wall Street, China Mobile, you name it, don't think he has the stones. Time will tell. A $200 billion per year treadmill is very hard to ACCELERATE...but easy to deteriorate. I'd call voluntarily risking millions in guaranted compensation, with no additional upside, based, at least partially, on AAPL performance, shows major "stones," as much as I hate that juvenile phrase. Steve Jobs put a lot of trust in Tim Cook, and that's good enough for me. Call me sentimental, From the PED article awhile back: "In the worst case scenario, Cook could lose 327,123 RSUs. At Friday's closing price of $410.79, that's a cut of $134 million." He's putting nearly a third of his compensation package at risk with no upside potential. Sounds like he's pretty confident to me. |
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icam
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Post by icam on Jun 25, 2013 20:22:03 GMT -8
I'd call voluntarily risking millions in guaranted compensation, with no additional upside, based, at least partially, on AAPL performance, shows major "stones," as much as I hate that juvenile phrase. Steve Jobs put a lot of trust in Tim Cook, and that's good enough for me. Call me sentimental, From the PED article awhile back: "In the worst case scenario, Cook could lose 327,123 RSUs. At Friday's closing price of $410.79, that's a cut of $134 million." He's putting nearly a third of his compensation package at risk with no upside potential. Sounds like he's pretty confident to me. He's either confident, or he has a new understanding of how tough of a task he has in front of him and the risks of his underperformance and is simply "lowering the bar" and subsequent fallout should he fail to deliver at acceptable levels. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 20:22:32 GMT -8
I'd call voluntarily risking millions in guaranted compensation, with no additional upside, based, at least partially, on AAPL performance, shows major "stones," as much as I hate that juvenile phrase. Steve Jobs put a lot of trust in Tim Cook, and that's good enough for me. Call me sentimental, From the PED article awhile back: "In the worst case scenario, Cook could lose 327,123 RSUs. At Friday's closing price of $410.79, that's a cut of $134 million." He's putting nearly a third of his compensation package at risk with no upside potential. Sounds like he's pretty confident to me. Agreed...but he's still guaranteed almost 300M. It's not like Average Joe risking 1/3 of their income, yes it's way more money, but it's not like he can ever spend what he's going to make anyways. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 20:59:37 GMT -8
Yes and no. In some ways Apple is "incompatible" with Wall Street, always has been, always will be. But iOS 7 looks to be great. A solid foundation for iPhone and iPad. Maybe not incompatible but certainly not simpatico. And you're right about iOS7. It's great. Few hiccups and with loads of new productivity. The icons are ok, not great -- expecting great by golden master (I hope). Lots of apps will now fit in ONE folder but I want them to scroll down and up, not onto another page within the folder (that's my feedback Apple, right there) |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 21:01:16 GMT -8
If you're looking for optimism, take heart that Sponge is now a bear.... ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2013 21:07:36 GMT -8
People need to stop panicking.
This fall there is going to be a new lower cost A5 powered 4" screen iPhone to replace the iPhone 4/4S this fall, alongside the A7 powered iPhone 5S, all finally available on new iPhone carrier China Mobile.
After that we will also see the new ultra slim iPad 5 and new and improved iPad mini 2.
Then in March/April next year we will get the 5" iPhone Big, powered by TSMC A8 SoC.
This will be followed up in June at WWDC by the introduction of the Apple HDTV & upgraded Apple TV set top box with a SDK, along with the Apple iWatch.
Then in fall 2014 we will get the new form factor iPhone 6 and the 2nd version of the lower cost iPhone, all powered by TSMC SoCs and running the new innovations present in iOS 8.
Its going to be a very exciting 15 months to come, from both a product and share price perspective.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 25, 2013 21:09:27 GMT -8
Mercel, are you not a dev? You have that pipeline. Use it!  |
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