Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jun 26, 2013 9:38:42 GMT -8
"Luckily" there's probably four product updates starting in September. Ah, logjams. ;D
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 9:38:50 GMT -8
Doc, what you are asking for is not in Apple's DNA. Apple ships products when the products are ready. If any lesson has been learned, it was the Maps fiasco that taught them that shipping early was a really bad idea. Last year's iMac announcement was also ill timed (the product wasn't ready to ship). As an investor, I can see where your patience runs thin, but if you can't stomach long periods of silence, then maybe AAPL is not the stock for you. The gap between WWDC (MacBook Air announcement) and the iPad mini/iMac announcement was 230 days. The previous longest gap between product announcements, beginning with the iPad's introduction, was 132 days. The silence is new. Nobody should be accustomed to this garbage.
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Post by geraci on Jun 26, 2013 9:44:03 GMT -8
Doc, are you forgetting the Mac Mini updates, the Mac Pro updates, any iPhone (pick one)?
Oh, I do agree with you about 2012. The fact that we exceeded $600/share was an anomaly based on a perfect storm of product releases and exceptional gross margins.
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Post by fas550 on Jun 26, 2013 9:48:32 GMT -8
IMHO there is going to be a major market correction coming this summer. It will be unlikely given current sentiment Apple moves to the contrary unfortunately. How low? Heck last year most were saying for a litany of reasons we wouldn't go below 600 (tax selling etc...) Now we are contemplating 385. I really do wish fundamentals mattered but the facts show that is not the case. Almost bizarre is the fact that when Apple hit an ATH I heard more statements like, "Well the fundamentals still show its cheap at this price". One thing I do know, the risk/reward shows an almost certainty there will be a better entry point for longs coming up. If I were to invest with a long or short, at this point is put the money on shorts. Ask yourself this: if Jonathan Ive quit tomorrow, what do you think would happen?
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 9:51:31 GMT -8
Doc, are you forgetting the Mac Mini updates, the Mac Pro updates, any iPhone (pick one)? Oh, I do agree with you about 2012. The fact that we exceeded $600/share was an anomaly based on a perfect storm of product releases and exceptional gross margins. Mac mini: October 2012 Mac Pro: June 2012 iPhone: September 2012 What am I missing here?
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Post by geraci on Jun 26, 2013 9:51:54 GMT -8
"If Jonathan Ive quit tomorrow"
I think I am having chest pains :-)
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Post by geraci on Jun 26, 2013 9:55:15 GMT -8
"What am I missing here?"
Products usually update on an annual (or longer) basis between refreshes. New product categories are few and even farther between.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jun 26, 2013 9:55:53 GMT -8
10% chance of (b) happening. 90% chance of (c) happening and heading toward 369. +100 unfortunately. If guidance doesn't reflect the possibility of new products within the next quarter, 375 will be our new hang out spot
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Post by dreamRaj on Jun 26, 2013 9:59:31 GMT -8
... Ah, Car Talk lives on. ;D You brought back some memories, Mav! My dreams of an Audi R8 around this time last year have been so shattered now that it's hard to even find the pieces.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 26, 2013 10:00:35 GMT -8
The product release schedule is what it is and Cook pretty much told everyone the facts when he said no new products or categories until the Fall at least. In my view, investors have grounds to be pissed off if the company misleads them. I don't think that is the case here. We investors are getting what Apple has told us we are going to get. Just look at the latest ads. A few great things when they are ready is the core message.
It is an entirely different matter if you don't agree with what they are doing. Then you have a personal investment decision to make. I think there are quite a few people who fall into this category on this board. Apple marches to its own tune. And Wall Street apparently hates it. That much is clear.
I think the core issue is that a lot of the posters here fundamentally disagree with Apple's choices on how the business is being run. If so, I say stop complaining about something you cannot change and put your money somewhere else. Nothing you or anyone else is going to say is going to change Apple's mind on how they choose to run the company.
All this complaining reminds me of my poker hobby. In every single game there is someone whining about how the world is against them, how their luck is horrible and so on and so on. They are long term losers and don't belong in the game. And no one wants to hear their incessant complaining, even though we all pretend to be sympathetic.
The same thinking applies to investing in my view. If you cannot take the losses and the pressures that go with it, then get out of the game. I know I am going to get flamed for this, but a lot of people here need to either grow up or grow a pair.
For me, I am waiting to the fall to see if this management team can actually deliver. If not, I am out, and if that choice leads to a bad financial outcome, then so be it.
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Post by terps530 on Jun 26, 2013 10:01:39 GMT -8
i like some points on both sides here. i dislike stacking all the big releases in the one quarter. it's an enormous amount of stress for the company to keep up with demand doing it that way.
however, selling 55 billion dollars worth of products in a 3 month span is unfair to call 'an utter failure'. You are saying that because in a perfect world, they could have sold more. Yes I agree, but I do not think that a lot of people who couldn't get an iphone5 or ipad mini in time for christmas, bought some other product. I think they waited for their toy to become available. Sales are still sales, regardless of what quarter they land in.
The silence breeds too much hope, which breeds too much emotion, and the emotion destroys investments. I married the company and it nearly destroyed my account. fool fool.
If it wasn't such a guessing game, expectations would be realistic, and people wouldn't continuously hope for back-to-back-to-back home runs, instead of a nice .300 singles/doubles hitter.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 26, 2013 10:02:56 GMT -8
... Ah, Car Talk lives on. ;D You brought back some memories, Mav! My dreams of an Audi R8 around this time last year have been so shattered now that it's hard to even find the pieces. An Audi R8?! I like you already. Hang in there and I hope this dream happens for you. From a current owner (almost five years) to a prospective one.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 10:02:58 GMT -8
No innovation/product releases??? I've stated many times that I believe Apple's next game changer is going to be "iWallet", a service not hardware. tinyurl.com/Passbook-a-go-goIt would appear, that at only 9 months old, Passbook has become the leader in digital payments/coupon redemptions. In the next 3 years I can see Passbook morphing into "iWallet" and being bigger than the App Store. "iWallet" on your iPhone. Everything you normally carry in your wallet (pictures, credit cards, membership cards, reminder lists, tickets, coupons, gift cards, MONEY) are in your iPhone. Fingerprint unlocking. 256 bit encryption ala iMessage = unbreakable data streams.
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Post by fas550 on Jun 26, 2013 10:07:29 GMT -8
"If Jonathan Ive quit tomorrow" I think I am having chest pains :-) Sorry didn't mean to cause that. I don't like to think about it either but I do: he's at the top of his game, financially set for life, has a young family and has been honored as a knight from his homeland.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 10:11:30 GMT -8
"What am I missing here?" Products usually update on an annual (or longer) basis between refreshes. New product categories are few and even farther between. MacBook Pro has been shifted from a summer to fall release. iPad has been shifted from an early spring to a fall release. iPad mini was added as a fall release. Last fall we were speculating that the spring gap was going to be filled with a TV or iWatch. We got nothing. I don't know how anybody can be fine with a gap this long between meaningful releases.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 10:12:09 GMT -8
If guidance doesn't reflect the possibility of new products within the next quarter, 375 will be our new hang out spot They have never guided based on unannounced products. So get ready.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jun 26, 2013 10:14:00 GMT -8
You brought back some memories, Mav! My dreams of an Audi R8 around this time last year have been so shattered now that it's hard to even find the pieces. An Audi R8?! I like you already. Hang in there and I hope this dream happens for you. From a current owner (almost five years) to a prospective one. From your mouth to God's ears... shall keep on dreaming
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 10:20:47 GMT -8
I think the core issue is that a lot of the posters here fundamentally disagree with Apple's choices on how the business is being run. If so, I say stop complaining about something you cannot change and put your money somewhere else. Nothing you or anyone else is going to say is going to change Apple's mind on how they choose to run the company. My money is elsewhere now. All of it, save for a handful of Jan 14 spreads that are just a drop in the bucket. A lot of my complaining is from my standpoint as a consumer too. Marginal iPad upgrade in the fall, no new MBPs at WWDC and still no advancements in the current Apple TV. I'm not happy.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 26, 2013 10:30:37 GMT -8
I guess redesigned iPad 5s don't mean much to you. Because Apple is highly unlikely to retain the same iPad design for 3 generations.
iPad mini 2 is a mystery.
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Post by terps530 on Jun 26, 2013 10:34:34 GMT -8
"What am I missing here?" Products usually update on an annual (or longer) basis between refreshes. New product categories are few and even farther between. you know- i thought about this, and i do agree. Once a year refreshes should be more than fine. I don't see the point of a new version in any less time (nor do I understand how it's even possible from a logistics/design standpoint).
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 10:37:39 GMT -8
You can bring out your same tired argument that 2012 set the bar too high with inflated margins, They are tired only because you've heard them several times. The message remains just as relevant the last time you heard it, as the first time you heard it. I agree. AAPL's "meteoric" rise was fueled by unsustainable revenue and GM% growth rates. AAPL's fall from grace was fueled by institutions that recognized the party was over long before retailers, such as ourselves, did. Which is a good reason to discover a method for determining what the institutions are doing in real time. I know some think that a wasted effort, but would they feel the same way today if that method existed last September?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 10:48:18 GMT -8
One product update for the best tech company on the planet in a span of seven months. ONE. ONE. ONE. That's what this is about. You're telling everyone that had Apple announced an iPad refresh in March and April we wouldn't be going through this? If only it were that simple. This is about a tough YOY compare with margins (thanks to Samsung), primarily. I'd also speculate that Wall Street is making money twice: Institutions selling Apple to expire options worthless and deploying those funds into a rising stock market. Too, the financial media has done a number on Apple with negative sentiment (high profile + negativity = page hits and eyeballs). For the record, Apple sold 19.5M iPads in the March quarter for a 40% increase YOY. Do you really think iPads are to blame here? THANK YOU Mercel
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 10:53:32 GMT -8
you know- i thought about this, and i do agree. Once a year refreshes should be more than fine. I don't see the point of a new version in any less time (nor do I understand how it's even possible from a logistics/design standpoint).At least not substantive updates.
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Post by macwire on Jun 26, 2013 11:00:14 GMT -8
The best trade is no trade. 385 looms.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 11:09:04 GMT -8
The best trade is no trade. 385 looms. Well that would be 45% drop then...remember when the buyback give us a floor at $420. I sure hope TC and PO don't come out in the next earnings call and announce they've spent some minuscule amount in the buyback. At these prices, they should be using a higher percentage of the buyback money...unless they know something we don't.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 11:10:36 GMT -8
A lot of my complaining is from my standpoint as a consumer too. Marginal iPad upgrade in the fall, no new MBPs at WWDC and still no advancements in the current Apple TV. I'm not happy. No one is happy with PPS. I'm expecting a BIG upgrade with iPad in the fall. The iPad 5 will be wearing the mini's clothing and will be 20-25% lighter (a big deal). The iPad mini SHOULD come with a retina display in the fall as well, despite a certain analyst who predicts 2014.
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Post by BillH on Jun 26, 2013 11:34:11 GMT -8
Sponge, If you are hanging your entire portfolio in the camp of AAPL, you really need to seek professional advice. It is a lose/lose proposition to keep all of one's nest egg in a single stock. It is even worse, when you leverage the holdings. I have NO doubt you have full faith in all things AAPL, almost to a fault, and are perhaps blinded, and in denial. AAPL is a broken stock, serious FUBAR, and, I do not think the bloodletting is over. Both the technicals, and the fundimentals, point out that there is no reason for AAPL trading at a P/E of 9.5, but stocks, when broken, trade on sentiment, or even worse "beliefs". Amazon is also a truly broken stock, and there are literally no tech./fund. reasons for it's lofty valuations, other than sentiment/beliefs. Sentiment will trump technicals and fundimentals all day long when a stock is broken. There is a strong likelihood, that after earnings in late July, we could be down another 10+%, and if AAPL does not offer outstanding guidance for Q4, it could even be worse, perhaps sub 350.00. Is that a pain you can handle? I am a uber bull, probably more so than you could find, but i am also grounded to the reality of just how broken AAPL is. If you have more than 25% of the nest egg in AAPL, which from reading your post's over the years, i am sure of, you should rethink your strategy. Most pro's would tell you a 10% exposure to any one company is too much. I know you have strong "beliefs" in all things AAPL, and i share most all of them, but sentiment/beliefs are often misguided and unreliable predictors of future outcomes, at least when compared to technicals or fundimentals. I would definately give serious consideration to visiting a fee based CFP, and listen to what he/she has to say about your investing strategy, and how your "beliefs" might be getting in the way of your end goals. No, exactly NO slight to you personally, in these well chosen words. Best Mac Well...,put me in the "seek professional help" category as I too have my entire portfolio invested with AAPL. Most of my extended family has followed your advice and invested with the "Pro's" for the last decade while I was off being blinded and in denial. They too cautioned me repeatedly about the foolhardiness of my approach. I bought @ 11, 68, and 137 with every nickel available. Did do a bit of diversifying last year into real estate even though I continue to believe it's not the best investment idea around. Paid cash for a place that needed a bit of a makeover in Key West. I became a little nervous last October 20th about the press, tax uncertainty and general economy so I sold enough to live on for a couple of years to let the current malaise (hopefully) pass by. Posted my thoughts on the weekend board as I recall. If I could find a Pro that I thought understood this crazy world any better than I do I'd probably hire them. Haven't yet.
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SomeJuan
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Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Jun 26, 2013 11:47:42 GMT -8
Well...,put me in the "seek professional help" category as I too have my entire portfolio invested with AAPL. Most of my extended family has followed your advice and invested with the "Pro's" for the last decade while I was off being blinded and in denial. They too cautioned me repeatedly about the foolhardiness of my approach. I bought @ 11, 68, and 137 with every nickel available. Did do a bit of diversifying last year into real estate even though I continue to believe it's not the best investment idea around. Paid cash for a place that needed a bit of a makeover in Key West. I became a little nervous last October 20th about the press, tax uncertainty and general economy so I sold enough to live on for a couple of years to let the current malaise (hopefully) pass by. Posted my thoughts on the weekend board as I recall. If I could find a Pro that I thought understood this crazy world any better than I do I'd probably hire them. Haven't yet. [/quote] Bill, You are a statistical outlier, and you have also cashed out what appears to be a non trivial amount to invest in real property, as well as a sizable cash position. That is not all eggs in one basket by any stretch. Is it your position, that a person should have no other investments than AAPL? Seriously? Congrads on your vision, and price points of entry. Best Mac
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Post by BillH on Jun 26, 2013 12:10:47 GMT -8
Bill, You are a statistical outlier, and you have also cashed out what appears to be a non trivial amount to invest in real property, as well as a sizable cash position. That is not all eggs in one basket by any stretch. Is it your position, that a person should have no other investments than AAPL? Seriously? Congrads on your vision, and price points of entry. Best Mac No, that isn't my position. My position is that the answer isn't always the same nor applicable in all circumstances. I don't honestly know how this will all play out but continue to believe that Apple owns the next decade of computing in every way that matters when it comes to generating revenue. Will people be generously rewarded if they choose to buy and hold at these levels? Yes, I believe they will be. Do I KNOW it? Not one bit.
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Post by sponge on Jun 26, 2013 12:11:53 GMT -8
I will never give up on aapl. This company is just getting started. Talk to me in 3 years and then 5, 10, 15, 20.
I will do better then any financial planner for that period. Sure I have losses because of margin, but I can live with the risk. I will recover like I have before.
The stock price only represents present sentiment but not long term potential.
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