Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 12:25:26 GMT -8
I will never give up on aapl. This company is just getting started. Talk to me in 3 years and then 5, 10, 15, 20. I will do better then any financial planner for that period. Sure I have losses because of margin, but I can live with the risk. I will recover like I have before. The stock price only represents present sentiment but not long term potential. It represents current sentiment on long term potential...thats why growth stocks get such a high PE, because long term potential could be great. Wall Street is obviously not expecting much/any growth from Apple.
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Post by fas550 on Jun 26, 2013 12:34:24 GMT -8
Bill, You are a statistical outlier, and you have also cashed out what appears to be a non trivial amount to invest in real property, as well as a sizable cash position. That is not all eggs in one basket by any stretch. Is it your position, that a person should have no other investments than AAPL? Seriously? Congrads on your vision, and price points of entry. Best Mac No, that isn't my position. My position is that the answer isn't always the same nor applicable in all circumstances. I don't honestly know how this will all play out but continue to believe that Apple owns the next decade of computing in every way that matters when it comes to generating revenue. Will people be generously rewarded if they choose to buy and hold at these levels? Yes, I believe they will be. Do I KNOW it? Not one bit. You hit the nail on the head so to speak. People on this board bought at different levels/times: just depends on your price point. There is no one answer and if you can stomach @ 20% drop from here then do it. Myself I invested later and am unwilling to go through so much uncertainty because I have more at risk (% wise). There are just easier ways to maintain/increase investment opportunities. I do love this company but as investment there are simply too many factors that add risk compared to other opportunities. It's not fair but WTF does that matter.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jun 26, 2013 12:35:41 GMT -8
By describing Apple's performance as "weak" vs that of Blackberry, he is explicitly implying that Blackberry is doing "better" than Apple. That Blackberry is a weak product to begin with negates any perceived betterment in upgrade performance. Blackberry upgrades are REQUIRED just to stay within 2 years of iOS. Blackberry has a long way to go before it approaches parity. Given Blackberry's market share it seems that, with the exception of some AFB posters, the rest of the market recognizes this. It isn't about how often you replace your tires, its about how good your tires are to begin with. One product update for the best tech company on the planet in a span of seven months. ONE. ONE. ONE. That's what this is about. Considering that Apple has lots of good engineers, and lots of good product development folks, and lots of good designers, etc, they must all be working on something (or somethings). So, pretty soon Apple is probably going to announce some new products. And the question is, would you prefer for Apple to pre-announce them to make us feel better and to help support the stock price, or to remain quiet until they are imminent? Because the former gives their competitors that much more time to develop competitive products, while the latter keeps everyone in the dark until a bit later. I think if the choice is between those two, I would rather choose the latter (keep quiet until introduction and sale).
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Post by rob_london on Jun 26, 2013 12:35:52 GMT -8
I will never give up on aapl. This company is just getting started. Talk to me in 3 years and then 5, 10, 15, 20. I will do better then any financial planner for that period. Sure I have losses because of margin, but I can live with the risk. I will recover like I have before. The stock price only represents present sentiment but not long term potential. It represents current sentiment on long term potential...thats why growth stocks get such a high PE, because long term potential could be great. Wall Street is obviously not expecting much/any growth from Apple. As Horace Dediu so memorably put on June 14: "Today’s expectation is ....that each current customer will buy the equivalent of 1.8 iPhones. And nothing more, ever..."
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stub
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The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Jun 26, 2013 12:37:09 GMT -8
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Post by zzmac on Jun 26, 2013 12:40:05 GMT -8
If you don't rotate them once in a while, they'll wear out on the edges. Maybe you'll need to buy a new set. Maybe a set of Samsung S4 225-15's. If Apple is the best tech company on the planet, then everyone else is #2, or worse. Given Blackberry's market share, the market has already determined that Blackberry is far less than #2. Ergo, ONE Apple product update is worth SEVERAL Blackberry updates. I'll say it again, comparing Apple to Blackberry on any level, and finding Apple wanting, is nonsensical. It isn't the number of updates that's important, it's the quality of those updates, and in that nobody matches Apple. As proof we have the recently upgraded MacBook Air and Mac Pro. There is nothing comparable to these two products ON THE PLANET. Further there is nothing comparable on the market to LAST YEAR'S iMac. I don't care how often the competition upgrades its products, or how seldom Apple upgrades its products, as long as Apple products remain the best. They are. Replacing a 15,000 mile tire 4 times vs once for a 60,000 mile tire doesn't make the 15,000 mile tire better. +1
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 12:56:52 GMT -8
I guess redesigned iPad 5s don't mean much to you. Because Apple is highly unlikely to retain the same iPad design for 3 generations. iPad mini 2 is a mystery. Neither of these have been announced yet. Could still be four months away from an announcement. And if all we get from the new iPad is a slimmer bezel and thinner design, I'm going to have to say no thanks. I would buy a retina mini though.
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Post by moltenfire on Jun 26, 2013 13:06:54 GMT -8
"What am I missing here?" Products usually update on an annual (or longer) basis between refreshes. New product categories are few and even farther between. MacBook Pro has been shifted from a summer to fall release. iPad has been shifted from an early spring to a fall release. iPad mini was added as a fall release. Last fall we were speculating that the spring gap was going to be filled with a TV or iWatch. We got nothing. I don't know how anybody can be fine with a gap this long between meaningful releases. In the Jan 2013 conference call, Tim said that he regretted grouping all the releases at once in Fall 2012 because he had supply problems and couldn't meet demand. So now Fall 2013 is coming, and Tim is grouping all the releases at fall once again. Does anyone believe that in January 2014 Tim will say that there's no supply problems? I for one do not hold hope.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 13:12:35 GMT -8
Man, the market (along with half this board) just have no patience do they?
In less than 10 weeks time we will have the iPhone event (could be sooner, I would love a August event invitation that read "Fall comes early..."). And before that we get earnings in 4 weeks.
Having consumer products be refreshed before the biggest consumer shopping season makes complete sense to me. The fact that most of Apples products are now focused at consumers unfortunately means that they all are going to be refreshed around the same time frame. If that gives us a boring 9 months without fresh products so be it - get used to it. (I would argue the WWDC preview of iOS 7 gives a good look at what the fall iOS products will be like, yet people fail to appreciate that 90% of what a new iPhone or iPad experience is about, is software.)
The only major products that are not dependant on the peak consumer buying season are the Mac lines and iTunes/software segment. Refreshed Macs can and do get refreshed throughout the year, but lets face it: New and updated macs are not going to move the needle for wall street given the small contribution the Mac now makes to Apples bottom line. iTunes is growing like crazy, and apple introduced iWork in the cloud & iRadio as two new iTunes/software products barely 3 weeks ago, yet Apple detractors completely ignore this.
On a side note, do people complain that car companies only update their car models once a year? How about shareholders in Netflix or Amazon, how often do they get new core products or services from their companies? How about Microsoft shareholders? A new OS & office suite once every few years? A new Xbox every 7 years? How about google? Still only one successful revenue stream (advertising) after a decade of product flops and tens of billions wasted on failed acquisitions that produce no profits? How about HP, Dell & IBM - when was the last time those companies produced a new product line outside of their current markets? Name one in the last decade! Where's the outrage in the media and from shareholders from all of the above companies that they are in danger of failure because they haven't produced a "mega hit game changing category defining über product" in the last few months?
I'm an investor in Tesla, do I want the company to constantly be introducing new car models every few months because I'm bored? No, I want them to release a new product after its been perfected in R&D so it has a distinct advantage over rivals and is an attractive product, and then I want them to ramp up production to meet increasing global demand in a sustainable manner. This might take years to achieve for a single product, just like it has taken years for the iPhone, iTunes & iPad lines to get to where they are today, and the iPod before them.
Apple is a consumer products company. The best time to release refreshed consumer products is before the peak gift giving season. The rest of the year it still sells copious amounts of consumer products and ecosystem sales. Updating products more than once a year would do nothing other than decrease margins and reduce hype & anticipation of the once a year refresh. Entirely new product categories a hard to create, Apple has done it numerous times - more than any other company - they obviously know what they are doing and the new product lines will be released when they are ready.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 13:14:42 GMT -8
MacBook Pro has been shifted from a summer to fall release. iPad has been shifted from an early spring to a fall release. iPad mini was added as a fall release. Last fall we were speculating that the spring gap was going to be filled with a TV or iWatch. We got nothing. I don't know how anybody can be fine with a gap this long between meaningful releases. In the Jan 2013 conference call, Tim said that he regretted grouping all the releases at once in Fall 2012 because he had supply problems and couldn't meet demand. So now Fall 2013 is coming, and Tim is grouping all the releases at fall once again. Does anyone believe that in January 2014 Tim will say that there's no supply problems? I for one do not hold hope. He was talking about the iMac when he said that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 13:17:53 GMT -8
I guess redesigned iPad 5s don't mean much to you. Because Apple is highly unlikely to retain the same iPad design for 3 generations. iPad mini 2 is a mystery. Neither of these have been announced yet. Could still be four months away from an announcement. And if all we get from the new iPad is a slimmer bezel and thinner design, I'm going to have to say no thanks. I would buy a retina mini though. So you wouldn't buy the retina iPad 9.7" if it has a slimmer bezel and thinner design to match the iPad mini design, but you would buy the iPad mini 7.9" if it had a retina screen like the 9.7" model already has?
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Post by rob_london on Jun 26, 2013 13:20:58 GMT -8
Man, the market (along with half this board) just have no patience do they? In less than 10 weeks time we will have the iPhone event (could be sooner, I would love a August event invitation that read "Fall comes early..."). And before that we get earnings in 4 weeks. Having consumer products be refreshed before the biggest consumer shopping season makes complete sense to me. The fact that most of Apples products are now focused at consumers unfortunately means that they all are going to be refreshed around the same time frame. If that gives us a boring 9 months without fresh products so be it - get used to it. (I would argue the WWDC preview of iOS 7 gives a good look at what the fall iOS products will be like, yet people fail to appreciate that 90% of what a new iPhone or iPad experience is about, is software.) The only major products that are not dependant on the peak consumer buying season are the Mac lines and iTunes/software segment. Refreshed Macs can and do get refreshed throughout the year, but lets face it: New and updated macs are not going to move the needle for wall street given the small contribution the Mac now makes to Apples bottom line. iTunes is growing like crazy, and apple introduced iWork in the cloud & iRadio as two new iTunes/software products barely 3 weeks ago, yet Apple detractors completely ignore this. On a side note, do people complain that car companies only update their car models once a year? How about shareholders in Netflix or Amazon, how often do they get new core products or services from their companies? How about Microsoft shareholders? A new OS & office suite once every few years? A new Xbox every 7 years? How about google? Still only one successful revenue stream (advertising) after a decade of product flops and tens of billions wasted on failed acquisitions that produce no profits? How about HP, Dell & IBM - when was the last time those companies produced a new product line outside of their current markets? Name one in the last decade! Where's the outrage in the media and from shareholders from all of the above companies that they are in danger of failure because they haven't produced a "mega hit game changing category defining über product" in the last few months? I'm an investor in Tesla, do I want the company to constantly be introducing new car models every few months because I'm bored? No, I want them to release a new product after its been perfected in R&D so it has a distinct advantage over rivals and is an attractive product, and then I want them to ramp up production to meet increasing global demand in a sustainable manner. This might take years to achieve for a single product, just like it has taken years for the iPhone, iTunes & iPad lines to get to where they are today, and the iPod before them. Apple is a consumer products company. The best time to release refreshed consumer products is before the peak gift giving season. The rest of the year it still sells copious amounts of consumer products and ecosystem sales. Updating products more than once a year would do nothing other than decrease margins and reduce hype & anticipation of the once a year refresh. Entirely new product categories a hard to create, Apple has done it numerous times - more than any other company - they obviously know what they are doing and the new product lines will be released when they are ready. + A very good post Burgess.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 13:24:30 GMT -8
Neither of these have been announced yet. Could still be four months away from an announcement. And if all we get from the new iPad is a slimmer bezel and thinner design, I'm going to have to say no thanks. I would buy a retina mini though. So you wouldn't buy the retina iPad 9.7" if it has a slimmer bezel and thinner design to match the iPad mini design, but you would buy the iPad mini 7.9" if it had a retina screen like the 9.7" model already has? Insignificant upgrade IMO from my iPad 3, which works just fine. The mini would be for work. But I'm only getting it if it has a retina display.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 13:26:55 GMT -8
Updating products more than once a year would do nothing other than decrease margins and reduce hype & anticipation of the once a year refresh. Quit twisting my argument. I haven't seen one person here demand for Apple to refresh products more than once a year. All I ask is that the releases be spread throughout the year so demand can be adequately met and the consumer has more choice throughout the year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 13:31:47 GMT -8
So you wouldn't buy the retina iPad 9.7" if it has a slimmer bezel and thinner design to match the iPad mini design, but you would buy the iPad mini 7.9" if it had a retina screen like the 9.7" model already has? Insignificant upgrade IMO from my iPad 3, which works just fine. The mini would be for work. But I'm only getting it if it has a retina display. From a hardware perspective, I'm not sure what else would be better than reducing the weight, thickness and bezel size of the 9.7" iPad to something comparable to the iPad mini. Essentially it would be a iPad mini with a retina display, but 1.8" larger. Maybe some better speakers would be good I guess. And I know some would like a fingerprint sensor as well. Any other obvious improvements for me can only come from software enhancements.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 13:34:49 GMT -8
Updating products more than once a year would do nothing other than decrease margins and reduce hype & anticipation of the once a year refresh. Quit twisting my argument. I haven't seen one person here demand for Apple to refresh products more than once a year. All I ask is that the releases be spread throughout the year so demand can be adequately met and the consumer has more choice throughout the year. My argument is that most "consumer choice" happens in the November to March timeframe, so if any products are released from March - June they are going to be stale by the time peak buying season begins.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 13:34:56 GMT -8
Insignificant upgrade IMO from my iPad 3, which works just fine. The mini would be for work. But I'm only getting it if it has a retina display. From a hardware perspective, I'm not sure what else would be better than reducing the weight, thickness and bezel size of the 9.7" iPad to something comparable to the iPad mini. Essentially it would be a iPad mini with a retina display, but 1.8" larger. Maybe some better speakers would be good I guess. And I know some would like a fingerprint sensor as well. Any other obvious improvements for me can only come from software enhancements. It's not my job to figure out what would make me need a new iPad. That's Apple's.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 26, 2013 13:35:55 GMT -8
Man, the market (along with half this board) just have no patience do they? In less than 10 weeks time we will have the iPhone event (could be sooner, I would love a August event invitation that read "Fall comes early..."). And before that we get earnings in 4 weeks. Having consumer products be refreshed before the biggest consumer shopping season makes complete sense to me. The fact that most of Apples products are now focused at consumers unfortunately means that they all are going to be refreshed around the same time frame. If that gives us a boring 9 months without fresh products so be it - get used to it. (I would argue the WWDC preview of iOS 7 gives a good look at what the fall iOS products will be like, yet people fail to appreciate that 90% of what a new iPhone or iPad experience is about, is software.) The only major products that are not dependant on the peak consumer buying season are the Mac lines and iTunes/software segment. Refreshed Macs can and do get refreshed throughout the year, but lets face it: New and updated macs are not going to move the needle for wall street given the small contribution the Mac now makes to Apples bottom line. iTunes is growing like crazy, and apple introduced iWork in the cloud & iRadio as two new iTunes/software products barely 3 weeks ago, yet Apple detractors completely ignore this. On a side note, do people complain that car companies only update their car models once a year? How about shareholders in Netflix or Amazon, how often do they get new core products or services from their companies? How about Microsoft shareholders? A new OS & office suite once every few years? A new Xbox every 7 years? How about google? Still only one successful revenue stream (advertising) after a decade of product flops and tens of billions wasted on failed acquisitions that produce no profits? How about HP, Dell & IBM - when was the last time those companies produced a new product line outside of their current markets? Name one in the last decade! Where's the outrage in the media and from shareholders from all of the above companies that they are in danger of failure because they haven't produced a "mega hit game changing category defining über product" in the last few months? I'm an investor in Tesla, do I want the company to constantly be introducing new car models every few months because I'm bored? No, I want them to release a new product after its been perfected in R&D so it has a distinct advantage over rivals and is an attractive product, and then I want them to ramp up production to meet increasing global demand in a sustainable manner. This might take years to achieve for a single product, just like it has taken years for the iPhone, iTunes & iPad lines to get to where they are today, and the iPod before them. Apple is a consumer products company. The best time to release refreshed consumer products is before the peak gift giving season. The rest of the year it still sells copious amounts of consumer products and ecosystem sales. Updating products more than once a year would do nothing other than decrease margins and reduce hype & anticipation of the once a year refresh. Entirely new product categories a hard to create, Apple has done it numerous times - more than any other company - they obviously know what they are doing and the new product lines will be released when they are ready. + A very good post Burgess. 100% agree. Outstanding.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 13:36:49 GMT -8
From a hardware perspective, I'm not sure what else would be better than reducing the weight, thickness and bezel size of the 9.7" iPad to something comparable to the iPad mini. Essentially it would be a iPad mini with a retina display, but 1.8" larger. Maybe some better speakers would be good I guess. And I know some would like a fingerprint sensor as well. Any other obvious improvements for me can only come from software enhancements. It's not my job to figure out what would make me need a new iPad. That's Apple's. So if the iPad 7.9" & 9.7" models were identical in all aspects except for size, are you saying you would choose the 7.9" model?
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 13:42:13 GMT -8
It's not my job to figure out what would make me need a new iPad. That's Apple's. So if the iPad 7.9" & 9.7" models were identical in all aspects except for size, are you saying you would choose the 7.9" model?
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Post by Lstream on Jun 26, 2013 13:51:09 GMT -8
Quit twisting my argument. I haven't seen one person here demand for Apple to refresh products more than once a year. All I ask is that the releases be spread throughout the year so demand can be adequately met and the consumer has more choice throughout the year. My argument is that most "consumer choice" happens in the November to March timeframe, so if any products are released from March - June they are going to be stale by the time peak buying season begins. Yep. Apple going into Xmas with stale products would be worse than the situation we have now. The only way around this is likely two updates per year, which has its own challenges.
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Post by cbingle on Jun 26, 2013 13:54:41 GMT -8
burgess: I disagree with rolling out all new products before Christmas. They should be staggered across all 4 quarters to maximize excitement. People will always buy AAPL stuff for Christmas regardless if it is new or 6 months old or 9 months old. The early adopters don't follow a holiday calendar.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 26, 2013 14:00:45 GMT -8
My argument is that most "consumer choice" happens in the November to March timeframe, so if any products are released from March - June they are going to be stale by the time peak buying season begins. Yep. Apple going into Xmas with stale products would be worse than the situation we have now. The only way around this is likely two updates per year, which has its own challenges. What was wrong with how the product cycle for January-September 2012 worked? Releases staggered across the year with the two major releases (iPhone and iPad) six months apart.
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Post by nagrani on Jun 26, 2013 14:03:26 GMT -8
What a great post. Worth staying on this board to read things like this despite all the yahoos.
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Post by rickag on Jun 26, 2013 14:04:00 GMT -8
Man, the market (along with half this board) just have no patience do they? In less than 10 weeks time we will have the iPhone event (could be sooner, I would love a August event invitation that read "Fall comes early..."). And before that we get earnings in 4 weeks. Having consumer products be refreshed before the biggest consumer shopping season makes complete sense to me. The fact that most of Apples products are now focused at consumers unfortunately means that they all are going to be refreshed around the same time frame. If that gives us a boring 9 months without fresh products so be it - get used to it. (I would argue the WWDC preview of iOS 7 gives a good look at what the fall iOS products will be like, yet people fail to appreciate that 90% of what a new iPhone or iPad experience is about, is software.) The only major products that are not dependant on the peak consumer buying season are the Mac lines and iTunes/software segment. Refreshed Macs can and do get refreshed throughout the year, but lets face it: New and updated macs are not going to move the needle for wall street given the small contribution the Mac now makes to Apples bottom line. iTunes is growing like crazy, and apple introduced iWork in the cloud & iRadio as two new iTunes/software products barely 3 weeks ago, yet Apple detractors completely ignore this. On a side note, do people complain that car companies only update their car models once a year? How about shareholders in Netflix or Amazon, how often do they get new core products or services from their companies? How about Microsoft shareholders? A new OS & office suite once every few years? A new Xbox every 7 years? How about google? Still only one successful revenue stream (advertising) after a decade of product flops and tens of billions wasted on failed acquisitions that produce no profits? How about HP, Dell & IBM - when was the last time those companies produced a new product line outside of their current markets? Name one in the last decade! Where's the outrage in the media and from shareholders from all of the above companies that they are in danger of failure because they haven't produced a "mega hit game changing category defining über product" in the last few months? I'm an investor in Tesla, do I want the company to constantly be introducing new car models every few months because I'm bored? No, I want them to release a new product after its been perfected in R&D so it has a distinct advantage over rivals and is an attractive product, and then I want them to ramp up production to meet increasing global demand in a sustainable manner. This might take years to achieve for a single product, just like it has taken years for the iPhone, iTunes & iPad lines to get to where they are today, and the iPod before them. Apple is a consumer products company. The best time to release refreshed consumer products is before the peak gift giving season. The rest of the year it still sells copious amounts of consumer products and ecosystem sales. Updating products more than once a year would do nothing other than decrease margins and reduce hype & anticipation of the once a year refresh. Entirely new product categories a hard to create, Apple has done it numerous times - more than any other company - they obviously know what they are doing and the new product lines will be released when they are ready. Excellent post, now how to play it in my buying strategy? 😃
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 26, 2013 14:29:55 GMT -8
+ A very good post Burgess. 100% agree. Outstanding. + (another)1
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jun 26, 2013 14:42:49 GMT -8
Man, the market (along with half this board) just have no patience do they? .... Apple is a consumer products company. The best time to release refreshed consumer products is before the peak gift giving season. The rest of the year it still sells copious amounts of consumer products and ecosystem sales. Updating products more than once a year would do nothing other than decrease margins and reduce hype & anticipation of the once a year refresh. Entirely new product categories a hard to create, Apple has done it numerous times - more than any other company - they obviously know what they are doing and the new product lines will be released when they are ready. Permit me to join the chorus of approbation for your fine post. Most here know that I am an AAPL bull, my enthusiasm checked only by advancing age and overweighting in our portfolio. But it does seem a bit like deja vu all over again, to quote Yogi Berra. I am choosing to interpret the exciting changes in iOS7, despite the naysayers, to be a harbinger of other product advances that will surprise and delight this time. Of course, a China Mobile contract would certainly help.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 26, 2013 14:50:07 GMT -8
BRUCE has JUST sold about $12,400,000 of AAPL shares. He now holds 10 shares of AAPL. JEFFREY has JUST sold about $13,240,000 of AAPL shares. He now holds 317 shares of AAPL. Hmmmmmmm.....
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
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Post by Mav on Jun 26, 2013 14:51:35 GMT -8
Before you get too excited artman, please refer to FOOTNOTE 1 for both filings, please.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 26, 2013 14:54:01 GMT -8
Before you get too excited artman, please refer to FOOTNOTE 1 for both filings, please. DID they get the memo? Mr. Cook suggested management should show support by holding the stock. They could have changed their "trading plan".
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