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Post by appledoc on Jun 27, 2013 11:50:35 GMT -8
How's pain working for you this week? No news to blame. Maybe you'll get lucky and get some negative news tomorrow. Just keep drawing your squiggly lines. Too bad TA didn't prevent you from buying your spread a few weeks back. Oh no. Very small risk, big reward. I admitted to taking a gamble on it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 12:02:13 GMT -8
Technical analysis also means different things to different people.
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Post by zzmac on Jun 27, 2013 12:05:35 GMT -8
He's going to check with the Apple store assistant manager close to his house. The same one he uses for his inventory checks. :-) Bahaha...."I'll try to confirm with my source" WUT? What are you implying?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 12:06:45 GMT -8
Technical analysis also means different things to different people. I can roll with that one...lol. I wrote Tim Cook last night, conveying my hope that Apple, Inc. is buying AAPL deep at these prices. I will displeased if the share count doesn't drop to at least 936M shares this quarter.
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Post by cbingle on Jun 27, 2013 12:10:56 GMT -8
I was wondering what Tim does all day. Good to know you are in communication with him. Can you tell us his reply?
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Post by appledoc on Jun 27, 2013 12:12:40 GMT -8
Pain range means different things to different people, I guess. I wasn't the one who said I could predict within $10 on Monday where AAPL would land at the end of the week. If I remember correctly, pain range was 410-420 on Monday. You could have sold the 400 calls for 0.58 and 390 puts for 1.00 at the close today based on the pain range. Are either of those trades really worth the risk?
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Post by appledoc on Jun 27, 2013 12:13:42 GMT -8
I was wondering what Tim does all day. Good to know you are in communication with him. Can you tell us his reply? "I'm really, really excited to announce that we have some really, really great products coming up. We've all been working really, really hard to deliver something really, really special."
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Post by zzmac on Jun 27, 2013 12:16:49 GMT -8
That's him! :-) I was wondering what Tim does all day. Good to know you are in communication with him. Can you tell us his reply? "I'm really, really excited to announce that we have some really, really great products coming up. We've all been working really, really hard to deliver something really, really special."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 12:17:15 GMT -8
I'm not being pollyannish about AAPL when I say it's TOO EARLY to write off 2013. With all the negative sentiment currently, I question how much more negative it can get before we reverse.
Like others, I'm not seeing very many catalysts for the next two months, so we'll probably grind some more. My rundown of possible catalysts between now and the end of the year:
1. Earnings call in July (not expecting anything this time: $7.50 vs. $9.32 last year. Guidance? 2. Deals with Docomo and CM. (I have lower expectations for both this year) 3. New Apple TV hardware and SDK (Fall) 4. New MacBook Pros, iMacs and Displays (next 75 days) 5. Possible earnings beat FQ4 2013, depending on when new iPhone 5s launch. 6. Two new iPhone models: One with battery life as a differentiator in lower cost model and fingerprint sensor on the 5s (or some other tentpole feature) 7. New iPads (both models will help FQ4 2013 EPS more than last year) 8. iOS7 and Mavericks (iOS7 is a bigger deal than many expect) 9. MacPro (late 2013) 10. Something else, possibly new product category.
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Post by sponge on Jun 27, 2013 12:20:22 GMT -8
I am calling today's close the bottom for the rest of the year.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 12:21:07 GMT -8
I was wondering what Tim does all day. Good to know you are in communication with him. Can you tell us his reply? He says "Hi"
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 27, 2013 12:23:43 GMT -8
Everyone, bull or bear, tactician or strategist....take a few minutes and read these: www.marco.org/2013/06/27/ios7-as-defensewww.allenpike.com/2013/ios7-catch-me-if-you-can/With the change in suppliers so that it will NEVER beheld captive again and always have choice and options, and the creation of software that walls off the unworthy and can't be easily copied, Apple is setting itself apart and ensuring that what happened with Android/Samsung won't easily happen again.... Good for them.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 27, 2013 12:30:14 GMT -8
Everyone, bull or bear, tactician or strategist....take a few minutes and read this: www.marco.org/2013/06/27/ios7-as-defenseWith the change in suppliers so that it will NEVER beheld captive again and always have choice and options, and the creation of software that walls off the unworthy and can't be easily copied, Apple is setting itself apart and ensuring that what happened with Android/Samsung won't easily happen again.... Good for them. This is also a very good article, linked to by DF: www.allenpike.com/2013/ios7-catch-me-if-you-can/Interesting to read about the performance of iOS 7 on an iPhone 4...I was wondering about that. Hopefully many people will want to upgrade to a faster iPhone when they see the amazing apps developers can achieve with iOS 7.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 27, 2013 12:32:30 GMT -8
I am calling today's close the bottom for the rest of the year. I fear you may still have a few margin calls before July 22nd.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 12:37:17 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jun 27, 2013 12:52:48 GMT -8
I'm not being pollyannish about AAPL when I say it's TOO EARLY to write off 2013. With all the negative sentiment currently, I question how much more negative it can get before we reverse. Like others, I'm not seeing very many catalysts for the next two months, so we'll probably grind some more. My rundown of possible catalysts between now and the end of the year: 1. Earnings call in July (not expecting anything this time: $7.50 vs. $9.32 last year. Guidance? 2. Deals with Docomo and CM. (I have lower expectations for both this year) 3. New Apple TV hardware and SDK (Fall) 4. New MacBook Pros, iMacs and Displays (next 75 days) 5. Possible earnings beat FQ4 2013, depending on when new iPhone 5s launch. 6. Two new iPhone models: One with battery life as a differentiator in lower cost model and fingerprint sensor on the 5s (or some other tentpole feature) 7. New iPads (both models will help FQ4 2013 EPS more than last year) 8. iOS7 and Mavericks (iOS7 is a bigger deal than many expect) 9. MacPro (late 2013) 10. Something else, possibly new product category. I remember you making a pretty similar post months ago. Sad how we haven't received anything yet outside of the MBA.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 27, 2013 12:54:37 GMT -8
I am calling today's close the bottom for the rest of the year. At least you can get being wrong out of the way quickly. As in, tomorrow.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 12:55:46 GMT -8
Pain range means different things to different people, I guess. I wasn't the one who said I could predict within $10 on Monday where AAPL would land at the end of the week. If I remember correctly, pain range was 410-420 on Monday. You could have sold the 400 calls for 0.58 and 390 puts for 1.00 at the close today based on the pain range. Are either of those trades really worth the risk? Who made those claims? Hmm. Well, I'm trying to catch a butterfly today. Very, very small 385/390/395. I'll give you the thumbs-up/thumbs-down by tomorrow. If I don't say anything about it, assume it was a complete failure. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 12:56:59 GMT -8
That's kind of a nice catch.
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Post by sponge on Jun 27, 2013 12:58:19 GMT -8
I am calling today's close the bottom for the rest of the year. I fear you may still have a few margin calls before July 22nd. It is the end of the month and option activity for the first time indicated stabilization. We could drop tomorrow intraday, but should close above 395. Lots margin selling that started two weeks ago should also end.
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Post by cbingle on Jun 27, 2013 13:50:29 GMT -8
NTT DoCoMo CEO says he don't need no stinking IPhone (per AppleInsider). Iphone is no big deal anymore.
I am afraid Tim has no leverage with them or China Mobil now, which is why there is no contracts with them. He can't give them a better deal than other carriers, or AAPL is really toast. Like I have been saying, Apple is in a really tight spot right now, and Wall Street knows it. The current price may unfortunately represent best case scenario.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jun 27, 2013 13:54:42 GMT -8
Apple has now reached that magic place where absolutely everything it does is wrong. It's existing products are old, stodgy, too thin, too fat, not colorful enough, has screen sizes that aren't right, software that can't move photos with a "bump.. It's new announced products in software are too innovative,,not innovative, too colorful, too thin, too deep, too flat, too different, not different enough. It's expected but unannounced new products are not going to be innovative, are too late. There are too many of them coming or not enough. They are not sticking to what they know, and they are not doing enough new things. And, horrors, their ad campaign is bad..... So I bought a chunk more common at 398. Love perfect storms. Love ya, Red! <cough>...in a manly way, of course.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 27, 2013 14:01:48 GMT -8
NTT DoCoMo CEO says he don't need no stinking IPhone (per AppleInsider). Iphone is no big deal anymore. I am afraid Tim has no leverage with them or China Mobil now, which is why there is no contracts with them. He can't give them a better deal than other carriers, or AAPL is really toast. Like I have been saying, Apple is in a really tight spot right now, and Wall Street knows it. The current price may unfortunately represent best case scenario. Could just be negotiating. Someone who does not have the iPhone is certainly not going to admit that he has to have it.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 27, 2013 14:02:30 GMT -8
Apple has now reached that magic place where absolutely everything it does is wrong. It's existing products are old, stodgy, too thin, too fat, not colorful enough, has screen sizes that aren't right, software that can't move photos with a "bump.. It's new announced products in software are too innovative,,not innovative, too colorful, too thin, too deep, too flat, too different, not different enough. It's expected but unannounced new products are not going to be innovative, are too late. There are too many of them coming or not enough. They are not sticking to what they know, and they are not doing enough new things. And, horrors, their ad campaign is bad..... So I bought a chunk more common at 398. Love perfect storms. Love ya, Red! <cough>...in a manly way, of course. Hey, the Supreme Court has spoken. Depending on whatever state you are in...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 27, 2013 14:03:20 GMT -8
NTT DoCoMo CEO says he don't need no stinking IPhone (per AppleInsider). Iphone is no big deal anymore. I am afraid Tim has no leverage with them or China Mobil now, which is why there is no contracts with them. He can't give them a better deal than other carriers, or AAPL is really toast. Like I have been saying, Apple is in a really tight spot right now, and Wall Street knows it. The current price may unfortunately represent best case scenario. Could just be negotiating. Someone who does not have the iPhone is certainly not going to admit that he has to have it. I suppose their subscriber losses don't matter either. This sounds very T-mobileish....
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Post by Lstream on Jun 27, 2013 14:06:25 GMT -8
Could just be negotiating. Someone who does not have the iPhone is certainly not going to admit that he has to have it. I suppose their subscriber losses don't matter either. This sounds very T-mobileish.... Ya, anyone who says that they don't need the world's best selling phone is either posturing or an idiot. And I doubt he is an idiot.
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Post by rickag on Jun 27, 2013 14:15:24 GMT -8
Pain range means different things to different people, I guess. At this point Pain Range doesn't affect me, I've been in the Numb Range since below $500.
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Post by sponge on Jun 27, 2013 14:15:35 GMT -8
I recall when Verizon, TMobile, and Sprint all made fun of the iPhone in ads before getting it.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 14:16:32 GMT -8
I remember you making a pretty similar post months ago. Sad how we haven't received anything yet outside of the MBA. As before, the the product pipeline is weighted to the second half. No inconsistency here. And for the last time, if you think the absence of an iPad refresh in March/April timeframe is causing this, I'd say you are dead, flat wrong.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 14:30:35 GMT -8
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